TIGF transmission grid 10-year development plan

Transcription

1 TIGF transmission grid 10-year development plan

2 Agenda 1. Regulatory context 2. TIGF network 3. Key events Q4/ France-Spain transits evolution 5. Gas demand evolution 6. Investments Fluidity investments Public service obligation: regional network investments Public service obligation: maintenance and safety investments 7. Preparation for the Energy transition 2

3 1 Regulatory context The «Code de l Énergie» states that the Transmission System Operators must prepare a 10- year development plan based on: Gas demand and offer. Reasonable medium term forecast of gas infrastructure development. Reasonable medium term forecast of gas consumption. Reasonable medium term forecast of international transits. This plan is submitted to the CRE so that it can ensure: That all investment needs are covered. Consistency with the european 10-year development plan (TYNDP) published by ENTSOG every two years (the last one was published in March 2015). Following CRE s request, a «concertation gaz» meeting is jointly organized by both GRTgaz and TIGF in order to present their 10-year plans to the Market. This presentation is followed by a public consultation (for TIGF the plan is published on its internet site) before a formal audition by the CRE and the final deliberation in December. 3

4 Agenda 1. Regulatory context 2. TIGF network 3. Key events Q4/ France-Spain transits evolution 5. Gas demand evolution 6. Investments Fluidity investments Public service obligation: regional network investments Public service obligation: maintenance and safety investments 7. Preparation for the Energy transition 4

5 2 TIGF network Km of pipe 6 compressor stations(71 MW) 2 interconnections with Spain: o Larrau o Biriatou 2 interconnections with GRTgaz : o Castillon-La-Bataille o Cruzy 125 industrial sites connected 325 delivery points to public distributions 52 suppliers and shippers 5

6 Agenda 1. Regulatory context 2. TIGF network 3. Key events Q4/ France-Spain transits evolution 5. Gas demand evolution 6. Investments Fluidity investments Public service obligation: regional network investments Public service obligation: maintenance and safety investments 7. Preparation for the Energy transition 6

7 3 Key events Q / 1 Gas price evolution Capacité commercialisable au PITT PIRINEOS au 1/10/2016 PIV PIRINEOS NORD >> SUD SUD >> NORD 165 GWh/j 0 C (F) 225 GWh/j 0 C (F) Totale Commercialisable 60 GWh/j 0 C (I) Totale Commercialisée 148 GWh/j 0 C (F) 177 GWh/j 0 C (F) Dont réservée sur le long terme 146 GWh/j 0 C (F) 177 GWh/j 0 C (F) Dont commercialisée CAM - PRISMA 2 GWh/j 0 C (F) 0 GWh/j 0 C (F) F : Capacité ferme I : Capacité interruptible

8 3 Key events Q / 2 Parentis reinforcemet entry into service Octobre 2016 Adour artery enrty into service Décembre 2015 STEP (South Transit East Pyrénées) Launch of conceptual study with a 50% grant from EU Barbaira Gascogne-Midi Relationship with national and local stakeholders Administrative instruction ongoing First contract awards (EPC, tubes ) Inclusion in PCI list in november 2015 Objectives: authorization 07/2017 Entry into service 10/2018 Entry into service of Salies du Salat resupply Octobre 2016

9 Agenda 1. Regulatory context 2. TIGF network 3. Key events Q4/ France-Spain transits evolution 5. Gas demand evolution 6. Investments Fluidity investments Public service obligation: regional network investments Public service obligation: maintenance and safety investments 7. Preparation for the Energy transition 9

10 4 France-Spain transits evolution / 1 France Spain Spain France 2016: Commercialized capacities Subscribed capacities Average monthly transit Same tendencies as 2015 with a strong seasonal modulation of N S and S N transits Subscribed capacities stability: 89% of commercialized capacities (France Spain) 79% of commercialized capacities (Spain France) 10

11 4 France-Spain transits evolution / 2 Quantities delivered to Spain Q1 Q3 Comparison Stability of spanish consumptions Slight decrease of algerian imports by pipe (-10%) Increase of LNG imports (+28%) Quantities received from Spain Comparison Stability of spanish consumptions Similar levels of LNG arrivals and algerian pipe gas with a slight increase in LNG Q1 Q3 F S : stability of transits E F: increase of around 20% 11

12 Agenda 1. Regulatory context 2. TIGF network 3. Key events Q4/ France-Spain transits evolution 5. Gas demand evolution 6. Investments Fluidity investments Public service obligation: regional network investments Public service obligation: maintenance and safety investments 7. Preparation for the Energy transition 12

13 5 Gas demand evolution/ 1 Principaux inducteurs des scénarios Scénario A (central) Scénario B Scénario C Démographie Suivi de l évolution du nombre ménage Croissance économique Modérée Plus important Plus Faible Efficacité énergétique Élevée Plus importante Plus faible Rénovation du bâti Élevée Plus importante Moins importante Développement renouvelables des Élevé Important Moins important Substitutions Modérées Elevées Faibles Segment Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Résidentiel & Tertiaire -1.0% -0.7% -1.4% TCAM France Industrie -0.7% -0.2% -1.6% Prod. Elec. 3.6% 4.2% 3.6% Mobilité gaz 12.2 TWh en TWh en TWh en 2025 Total -0.1% 0.5% -0.7% Résidentiel & Tertiaire -0.8% -0.7% -1.3% TCAM TIGF Industrie -0.3% 0.7% -1.2% Prod. Elec. N/A 4 TWh en 2025 N/A Mobilité gaz 1.4 TWh en TWh en TWh en 2025 Total -0.2% 1.9% -1.0%

14 5 Gas demand evolution/ 2 TIGF VISION VISION Scenario A : 29,5 TWh Scenario B : 36,2 TWh Scenario C : 27,2 TWh

15 5 Gas demand evolution / 3 TYNDP TIGF demand scenarios TIGF built around our single reference scenario at -0,1% of annual average growth rate: (-1%, -0,1% and +1%) TYNDP TIGF demand scenarios consistent with the Bilan Prévisionnel Pluriannuel (BPP) Scenario A: - 0,2% Distributed generation Scenario B: +1,9%(+0,7%) Sustainable transition Scenario C: - 1% Global climate action

16 Agenda 1. Regulatory context 2. TIGF network 3. Key events Q4/ France-Spain transits evolution 5. Gas demand evolution 6. Investments Fluidity investments Public service obligation: regional network investments Public service obligation: maintenance and safety investments 7. Preparation for the Energy transition 16

17 6 Fluidity investments/ / AGU Sauveterre de Guyenne RGM On the short term: 1. Entry into service of a 5,5 MW compressor in Sauveterre de Guyenne in Decided 2. TIGF develops the infrastructure needed to implement a single french market place in 2018: Gascogne-Midi project. Decided On the medium term: 2019: Reinforcement of the AGU compressor station with a fourth compressor in order to adapt to transit evolution on the Guyenne Artery mainly on P2. Not decided 17

18 6 Fluidity investments/ /2025 On the long term: non decided projects : In answer to the publication of the European network code on interoperability, TIGF studies a modification of its odorization system STEP 2022: STEP (South Transit East Pyrénées) STEP is an interconnexion project with Spain, constituted in France by a pipeline linking Le Pethus to Barbaira. This project has been registered independantly for the 2017 TYNDP. It is the subject of a CBA (cost benefits analysis) study led by the European Commission (Q4 2016). The overall investment amounts to about 300M and will be precised during the conceptual study that TIGF is curently performing. This study has obtained a 50% grant from the EU. Transit capacities as jointly defined by the involved TSOs Interruptible capacities up to: S/N 230 GWh/j and N/S 180 GWh/j according to the considered scenarios 18

19 6 Public service obligation: regional network investments Landes Sud Montauban - Rodez Albi - Castres Capens - Pamiers Non validated projects - Network branches with consumption increase forecast capacity limit : In «avant-projet» study phase: Zone Landes Sud In conceptual study phase: reaching Antenne Capens Pamiers (Security and capacity maintenance infrastructure: declassified and saturated natwork dating from 1947) In preliminary study phase: Antennes Montauban Rodez Albi-Castres: mitigation project for saturated network branches Validated project Non validated project Prevision of two new unit connections per year (Industrial or Public service) 19

20 M 6 Public service obligation: Maintenance and safety investments In order to satisfy the regulatory evolution, stakeholders requirements and its safety policy, TIGF has modernized its network and increased infrastructures reliability over the last few years (30 M /year on average over the last five years). Sécurité et Maintien ,2 36,3 25,7 28,9 34,2 Displacement out of cities and urban areas Replacement of out of ground crossings Damages repairs following accidents or regulatory inspections Modifications to limit the danger zones of impact Modifications for third party projects 0 RD 2012 RD 2013 RD 2014 RD 2015 RD 2016 TIGF will continue its efforts on an aging network (50% of network aged 50 years or more) at the same pace in the coming years 20

21 Agenda 1. Regulatory context 2. TIGF network 3. Key events Q4/ France-Spain transits evolution 5. Gas demand evolution 6. Investments Fluidity investments Public service obligation: regional network investments Public service obligation: maintenance and safety investments 7. Preparation for the Energy transition 21

22 7 - Preparation for the energy transition / 1 Biométhane Several dozens of prospects Participation to: 1. GT «Biomethane injection» 2. Sous-GT «injection capacity management» 3. Sous-GT «back-flow» TIGF manages the computerized injection capacity register on its zone since 2014 One unit in production since 2015 (Biovilleneuvois) which plans a doubling in production in the short term (1200 against 595 m3(n)/h today) In order to respect the objectives of the «loi sur la transition énergétique» and taking into acount short terms predictions: Prevision of one production unit connection to the network per year until 2023 followed by two per year from 2023 to This amounts to 0,4 TWh/yr directly injected in the network in Entry into service of one backflow unit per year starting in

23 7 - Préparation for the energy transition / 2 NGV Power To Gas TIGF participation in AFGNV Support and studies for urban mobility projects Contacts for motorway gas station supply Several prospects on distribution network Prevision of one NGV supply unit direct connection to TIGF network starting in Integration of renewables in the network Integration of gas and electricity networks Production of renewable and local gas (H2 and CH4) Possible development of industrial units starting in 2025 JUPITER 1000 Pilot project 1MW électrolysis Méthanation 8 industrial partners Operation