Global wood-based energy usage, GHG emissions, and policy options to mitigate emissions Juha Siikamäki with Samy Sekar and Kristen McCormack

Transcription

1 Global wood-based energy usage, GHG emissions, and policy options to mitigate emissions Juha Siikamäki with Samy Sekar and Kristen McCormack Supported by Mistra s INDIGO research program First Annual FLARE Network Conference November 27th 30th, 2015 Paris, France

2 Motivation Wood fuels comprise an essential energy source Wood fuels produce 9% of primary energy worldwide (FAO 2015) Especially important in developing countries (2.8 billion depend on wood for cooking and heating) Future importance could be increasing (increasing energy demand, renewables focus) Wood fuels and GHG emissions Wood could help address energy demand in a sustainable, renewable way Remains a substantial source of emissions, especially in developing countries Currently not a key focus in climate policy (primary attention on fossil fuels) Benefits from greater consideration of wood fuels in climate policy Help reduce emissions by displacing fossil fuels, using wood more effectively Possibly cost-effective Reduce indoor air pollution (about 4.3 million die from air pollution from cooking (WHO 2014) Encourage developing country participation in climate policy (major policy hurdle) 2

3 Study Outline 1) Different wood fuel sources and utilization technologies 2) Wood fuel usage globally, by world region, and by country, including estimates of total usage, usage per capita, and usage per hectare of forest 3) GHG emissions from wood fuels a) Accounting framework for biogenic emissions b) GHG emission estimates by country 4) Current climate policy frameworks and wood fuels 5) Estimating the cost of emission reductions using wood fuel and forestry projects (CDM) 6) Discussion

4 Different wood fuel sources and utilization technologies 4

5 Wood Fuel Removals by World Region Asia South America Europe Africa Northern America Australia and New Zealand Data: FAO

6 Wood Fuel Removals, by Country, in Total (m 3 )

7 Wood Fuel Removals, by Country, in Total per Capita (m 3 /person)

8 Wood Fuel Removals, by Country, in Total per Forest Area (m 3 /ha)

9 Wood fuel GHG emissions relative to total national emissions Data: Bailis et al Top-20 countries, emissions from wood fuel Rwanda 84% Liberia 83% Haiti 74% Lesotho 72% Ethiopia 72% Burundi 61% Uganda 58% Bhutan 57% Kenya 52% Nepal 52% Eritrea 51% Guinea-Bissau 39% Gambia 34% Mozambique 33% Malawi 33% Burkina Faso 31% Somalia 31% Zimbabwe 30% Tanzania 28% Honduras 25%

10 Wood Fuel Emissions in Climate Policy Frameworks UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) Accounted under land use land cover (LULC) sector Excluded in energy (to avoid double counting) Kyoto Protocol LULC not under the cap: wood fuel emissions effectively ignored (carbon neutral) Offsets may include LULC projects, but under strict criteria (accounting for leakage, additionality, fossil fuel displacement) EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) Implements Kyoto Protocol in the EU Biomass-based renewables not under the cap (effectively carbon neutral) International offsets (CDM/JI) used for reaching compliance, as defined in Kyoto Protocol California (AB32), RGGI (Northeastern US + Quebec) Cap includes biomass energy AB32 accepts LULC offsets, even internationally RGGI offsets include LULC but must be sourced from participating states/provinces

11 Examining Wood and Forestry Based Projects in CDM Clean Development Mechanism/Joint Implementation (CDM/JI) Emissions offset mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol Projects generate certified emission reductions (CERs) in developing countries to offset capped emissions in developed countries Our analysis of CDM/JI projects Total of 7,664 CDM projects registered (Sept 2015, UNEP DTU Partnership, 2015) All kinds of projects, not only wood (e.g., HFC, wind, landfill methane, transportation, energy efficiency) Review project documents to identify project with primary focus on wood fuel, forestry, and other biomass energy (338 in total) Classify wood, other biomass, and forest related projects into three primary categories (substitution, more effective wood fuel use, reforestation/afforestation) Estimate the cost of emission reductions ($/t CO 2 e) by project type, for all CDM projects Predict $/t CO 2 e as a product of project type and other project characteristics, for all CDM projects

12 Estimated Marginal Cost of Emissions Reductions under CDM Wood fuel for energy Wood fuel and forestry projects 1) About average in cost per ton (below median) 2) Relatively small in total emission reductions 3) Lack of projects probably not cost-driven; other barriers in play (project criteria, other factors) Non-wood biomass for energy Reforestation/afforestation

13 Discussion Wood energy continues as a major source of energy around the world, with considerable heterogeneity Wood energy is also a GHG emissions source, despite its potential to provide renewable energy Potential to mitigate emissions Two primary options: increased technological conversion efficiency and improved forest management practices Significant barriers to both, but also major co-benefits (health benefits, ecosystem services) Wood fuels and climate policy Seen mostly as a near- or medium-term solution, but longer term potential also exists Could wood biomass offer a sustainable renewable energy source to meet increasing demand? Potential quite large (forests cover roughly one third of the global land area; historically about twice the current area) But unless sustainability is addressed, increased demand puts yet more pressure on forests and climate