Potential for Renewable Energies Application for Heating in the Industrial Sector A Case Study of Selected APEC Economies

Transcription

1 Potential for Renewable Energies Application for Heating in the Industrial Sector A Case Study of Selected APEC Economies June 21, 2017 Sichao Kan, Yoshiaki Shibata The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) Alexey Kabalinskiy, Cecilia Tam Asia Pacific Energy Research Center (APERC) Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 1

2 Outline Introduction Methodology Result Conclusion Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 2

3 Industry Non-metallic minerals Iron and steel Paper, pulp and print Food and tobacco Chemical and petrochemical Construction Non-specified (industry) Wood and wood products Mining and quarrying Textile and leather Transport equipment Machinery Non-ferrous metals Introduction: Energy Consumption in the Industry Sector 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% APEC range APEC weigh ted avera ge Non-electricity final energy demand in the industrial sector in APEC region (2014) Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016 Selected APEC economy in this study: Chile, People s Republic of China, Japan, New Zealand, Republic of the Philippines, Russia, Thailand, and the United States Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 3

4 Introduction: RE technologies for heating and cooling Flat plate solar collector Ground source heat pump Source: Source: Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 4

5 Introduction: Applicable RE technologies by temperature range Source: US EPA, Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 5

6 PJ Introduction: Breakdown of useful heat demand Low temperature range: < 100 degree C Medium temperature range: 100 ~ 400 degree C High temperature range: >400 degree C Low temperature Medium temperature High temperature Breakdown of useful heat demand in EU for 2009 Data source: N. Pardo, K. Vatopoulos, A. Krook-Riekkola, J.A. Moya, and A. Perez (2012): Heat and cooling demand market and perspective, EU Joint Research Center Scientific and Policy Report. Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 6

7 Methodology: Useful energy Useful energy = Final energy consumption Efficiency of heat supply technologies Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 7

8 Methodology: Industrial sub-sectors and technologies Renewable option: technology required is already at the mass market stage and the resource availability is not constraint by location Subsector: manufacturing sub-sectors where heat demand is larger than electricity or where most heat applications are in the low or medium temperature range Renewable heat technology and industrial sub-sector selection results Geothermal (HP or thermal water) Solar thermal Biomass LT MT HT LT MT HT LT MT HT Iron and steel Chemical and petrochemical Non-metallic minerals Machinery Food and tobacco Paper, pulp and printing Non-specified (industry) Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 8

9 Methodology: Calculation flow overview Heat demand profile module Useful heat demand in each temperature range within each sub-sector Renewable resource supply potential module Supply potential of GSHP, solar, and biomass (useful energy base) (Note #1) Renewable heat potential determination module RE potential for meeting LT heat demand: Determine the RE tech deployment priorities by cost (Note #2) RE potential constraint by resource supply potential and demand RE potential for meeting MT and HT heat demand: Only biomass is applicable for MT and HT heat and since biomass availability also depends on demand from other sectors, the potential for industrial use is determined by scenarios (Note #3) Note #1: supply potential of GSHP and solar thermal is calculated from factory area and building footprint, biomass supply potential in the P&P sector comes from byproducts of pulp production Note #2: for the P&P sector, biomass (byproduct) will be deployed first Note #3: 10% (assumption) of on-site non-biomass useful heat demand on top of existing biomass consumption. Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 9

10 Methodology: Heat demand profile Useful heat demand in each temperature range = final energy consumption * temperature allocation matrix * efficiency matrix Final energy consumption (Japan, Non-metallic minerals sub-sector, ktoe) Other bitumin ous coal Natural gas Liquefie d Gas/die petrole sel oil Fuel oil um excl. gases biofuels (LPG) Industri al waste Munici pal waste (renew able) Primary solid biofuels Biogase s Biodies els Charco al Geothe rmal Solar thermal Heat Total , , , , , , , , ,879 Temperature allocation matrix (Japan, Non-metallic minerals sub-sector) Other bitumin ous coal Natural gas Liquefie d Gas/die petrole sel oil Fuel oil um excl. gases biofuels (LPG) Industri al waste Munici pal waste (renew able) Primary solid biofuels Biogase s Biodies els Charco al Geothe rmal Solar thermal Heat Total LT 6.1% 6.1% 5.4% 5.4% 1.2% 5.4% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% 6.1% 1.2% 6.1% 100% 100% 51.8% - MT 5.7% 5.7% 5.0% 5.0% 1.1% 5.0% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7% 1.1% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 48.2% - HT 88.1% 88.1% 78.5% 78.1% 17.1% 78.6% 86.5% 86.5% 88.2% 88.2% 17.1% 88.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - Efficiency matrix (Japan, Non-metallic minerals sub-sector) Other bitumin ous coal Natural gas Liquefie d Gas/die petrole sel oil Fuel oil um excl. gases biofuels (LPG) Industri al waste Munici pal waste (renew able) Primary solid biofuels Biogase s Biodies els Charco al Geothe rmal Solar thermal Heat Total LT 60% 60% 80% 70% 70% 70% 60% 60% 60% 80% 70% 60% 133% 100% 1 - MT 60% 60% 80% 70% 70% 70% 60% 60% 60% 80% 70% 60% HT 90% 90% 95% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 95% 90% 90% Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016 and authors estimation and assumption Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 10

11 Methodology: Renewable resource supply potential GSHP Heat Extracted from Ground Source (ktoe/year) = Available Area (m 2 ) Heat Extraction Rate (W/m) Density of Heat Exchange Well (wells/m 2 ) Depth of Heat Exchange Well (m/well) Operation Hours (hours/year) Adjustment Coefficient Convertion Coefficient (8.60E-12 (Wh->ktoe)) GSHP useful heat supply potential = heat extracted from ground source * (COP/(COP-1)) Solar thermal Useful heat supply potential of solar thermal (ktoe/year) = Available Area (m 2 ) Solar Radiation (MJ/m 2 /day) System Overall Efficiency (0.4) 365 (days/year) Convertion Coefficient (2.39E-8 (Wh->ktoe)) Biomass Paper, pulp and printing sub-sector: biomass supply comes as an on-site by-product. Potential determined by production. Other sub-sectors: potential determined by scenario, which is 10% of the subsector s non-renewable on-site heat supply Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 11

12 Methodology: Supply potential (available area) Reference (value of Japan) Land use productivity (total industrial value added/ land use) Building footprint ratio (= building footprint/factory occupation area) Economy index Land use productivity index: land use productivity compared to Japan Ratio of building footprint: same with Japan s value Available area Factory occupation area=ref. Land use productivity * economy index * subsector output value (UNIDO) Building footprint = factory occupation area * building footprint ratio Land use productivity index = f(population density index) Available area for GSHP = 10% * (factory occupation area building footprint) Available area for solar thermal = building footprint * 0.88 Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 12

13 ktoe Methodology: GSHP and Solar thermal potential 60,000 50,000 40,000 51,084 38,436 GSHP Solar thermal 45,120 40,999 30,000 20,000 17,129 10, ,506 2, ,282 1,390 1,148 GSHP and Solar thermal potential (useful energy) Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 13

14 ktoe Methodology: Biomass potential in P&P sector 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 Biomass by products potential On site heat demand 16,018 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,626 3,621 1,828 2,696 3,091 1,169 2, ,230 Biomass by product potential and on site heat demand 2014 (useful energy base) Biomass potential: by product of chemical wood pulp production Per ton of pulp production: -1.5 ton black liquor solids -300kg of bark Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 14

15 USD/toe Methodology: Renewable heat potential determination USD/toe GSHP Soalr Biomass GSHP Soalr Biomass Levelized heat supply cost (USD/toe) Renewable heat potential = min(heat demand, RE supply potential) Low temperature range: priority of deployment of RE technologies determined by levelized heat supply cost Medium- and high- temperature range: only biomass is applicable. Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 15

16 Result: RE heat potential by industry (observed value) (estimation) ktoe ktoe ,044 30,772 3, ,632 54,521 26,756 26,628 42,012 49,110 29,047 Renewable Energy Consumption for Heat Total energy demand Potential for Renewable Heat Total energy demand Renewable energy consumption for heating in 2014 (observed) and its potential in 2040 (estimation) Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016 and estimation by authors Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 16

17 ktoe % Result: RE heat consumption by economy (2014) % 26% 2,187 2,311 7% 1, % 3% 27,907 40% 35% 30% 28% 25% 20% 7,705 13% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% Renewable Energy Consumption for Heat Share of RE heat in total final energy consumption Total renewable energy consumption for heat and its share in total final energy consumptions in selected industry subsectors by economy (2014) Source: IEAWorld Energy Statistics 2016 Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 17

18 ktoe Result: Industrial RE heat potential by economy (2040) ,814 95,229 12,241 1,318 7,068 12,234 17,927 83,876 Total final energy demand Potential for Renewable Heat Potential for renewable heat and total energy consumption in selected industries by economy (2040) Source: estimation by authors Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 18

19 ktoe Result: Industrial RE heat potential by technology , ,376 41,820 25, Geothermal Solar Thermal Biomass Consumption in 2014 Estimated potential in 2040 Potential for renewable heat and total energy consumption in selected industries by economy (2040) Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016 and estimation by authors Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 19

20 Conclusion Paper, pulp and printing and Food and tobacco are the subsectors with the most renewable energy consumption for industrial heat at present. However, the subsector with the highest potential in the future is supposed to be the Chemical and petrochemical subsector. Among the 8 economies, the United States is using the most renewable energy for heat in the industry sector, but in terms of share of renewable heat in the industrial final energy consumption Chile is the front runner. However, the highest potential for renewable heat applications in the industry sector is supposed to be in the People s Republic of China, where the industrial energy demand is considerable huge compared to the other economies. Biomass is the most used renewable energy in the industry sector at present and its potential for industrial heat supply is supposed to be the highest also in the future. With the continuing cost reduction, solar thermal is expected to become the lowest cost renewable options for low temperature heat demand in most economies, which makes its potential significant in 2040 despite its negligible utilization in the industry subsector at present. Copyright 2017, IEEJ, All rights reserved 20