Comparing alternative PDPs for the Greater Mekong Subregion

Transcription

1 ECONOMIC CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 41 Lonsdale Road London NW6 6RA United Kingdom tel fax Comparing alternative PDPs for the Greater Mekong Subregion Vientiane, 12 November 2015

2 Scope, objectives and approach

3 What was the question? The study was commissioned by the Asian Development Bank (RETA- 7764) Conducted by a consultant led by ICEM and including ECA The objective was to investigate the wider impacts of regional power sector development within the Greater Mekong Sub-region While the SEA covered all GMS members, data limitations meant that detailed analysis was restricted to the four Lower Mekong Basin countries The Greater Mekong Sub-region - 3 -

4 Defining the scenarios and cases Current PDPs Most recent national Power Development Plans Renewable Energy (RE) Increased renewables displace planned capacity Alternative scenarios Energy Efficiency (EE) Increased EE reduces demand and delays need for new capacity RE - Global Reduce global impacts by displacing coalfired capacity RE - Regional Reduce regional impacts by displacing large hydro and nuclear capacity EE - Global Reduce global impacts by delaying coalfired capacity Displacement cases EE - Regional Reduce regional impacts by delaying large hydro and nuclear capacity - 4 -

5 What are the scenarios? Current PDPs scenario existing national power development plans shows what we expect to happen if current policies are unchanged Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency alternative scenarios represent alternative power development paths allows assessment of the change in impacts compared to a continuation of current paths - 5 -

6 What are the cases? Global impacts displace that capacity with the greatest negative impacts globally (GHG emissions) remove lignite, coal and gas plants Regional impacts displace that capacity with the greatest negative impacts on the environment and population within the GMS remove large hydropower, beginning with mainstream dams remove nuclear power plants remove lignite and coal plants - 6 -

7 Current PDPs scenario

8 Approach Most recent published PDPs used to identify new power plants for each modelled country and demand forecasts to 2025 Adjustments made to the published PDPs for consistency between PDPs of exporting and importing countries a number of hydro power projects identified in the Cambodia and Lao PDPs as being for export, but not shown in the Thai and Vietnamese PDPs in these cases, we used the importing country PDPs (Thailand and Vietnam) as the master, and amended the exporting country PDPs (Cambodia and Lao PDR) to match removal of excess capacity to avoid erroneous results the Cambodian, Lao and Vietnamese PDPs would lead to very large capacity margins by 2025 a number of projects in these three countries were delayed to reduce this excess capacity delays in nuclear projects - 8 -

9 Projected generation mix by country Capacity grows at 8% / 6.8 GW pa Growth in capacity is driven by Vietnam (60% of additional capacity) The capacity mix changes from gasdominated (48%) to a more balanced coal (21%), gas (33%) and hydro (27%) mix Renewables capacity increases >6x, but still remains fairly insignificant (9% in 2025) - 9 -

10 Inter-connector flows: Current PDPs (2025) Myanmar CSG Lao PDR Thailand Vietnam 3.1 Cambodia TWh (only flows >1 TWh are shown)

11 Alternative scenarios

12 PLANNED GENERATION OUTPUT Building the scenarios Renewable and Efficiency scenarios displace planned conventional energy capacity Alternative scenarios displace conventional capacity with different quantities of renewable energy and energy efficiency Energy efficiency Renewable Energy Conventional energy sources Current PDPs Scenario Renewable Energy Scenario Energy Efficiency Scenario

13 How much renewable energy capacity? Estimate technical potential by country and type Estimate untapped potential as at baseline date Assume deployment rate (share of technical potential realised) by type Initial assumptions resulted in unrealistically high levels of RE capacity deployment rates adjusted downwards following consultations with stakeholders To ensure reliable supply, we assume that intermittent and volatile renewables must be backed-up by new gas-fired open-cycle capacity equal to 50% of the installed wind and solar capacity

14 Renewable energy assumptions

15 How much energy efficiency? Energy efficiency potential in Thailand and Vietnam was estimated using published sources, Government plans and international energy consumption benchmarks Cambodia and Lao PDR country representatives indicated that a 10% energy reduction against planned consumption by 2025 would be a reasonable assumption TWh (2025) Potential Planned Remaining Viet Nam Industry Commercial Residential Supply side Thailand Industry Commercial Residential Supply side Cambodia Lao PDR TOTAL

16 Imputed energy efficiency costs

17 PDPs compared

18 The scenarios compared (2025) installed capacity

19 The scenarios compared (2025) generation

20 The scenarios compared (2025) - inter-connector flows TWh (share of demand) Current PDPs Global impacts RE scenario Regional impacts Global impacts EE scenario Regional impacts Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand (16%) (19%) (15%) (19%) (15%) Vietnam (3%) (4%) (3%) (5%) (3%) +ve net exports -ve net imports % is share of supply from imports in net importing countries

21 Energy security compared Diversity of fuel mix (2025) Current PDPs RE - Global EE - Regional

22 Impacts assessment

23 Monetary values applied Indicator Unit Value Source GHG emissions U$/tCO 2 30 WB appraisals Pollutant emissions NOx US$/t 760 SO 2 US$/t 885 PM 10 US$/t 6,775 Land take US$/ha 8,680 Resettlement US$/person/year 3,030 EU ExternE, adjusted for relative income levels and rounded Rice paddy in Vietnam, FAO Trung Son resettlement, annuitised

24 Monetisation principles Building a hydro power plant in Laos that displaces 1,000 people has the same economic costs as displacing the same number of people in Thailand but is the lower financial cost of compensation a competitive advantage of Laos? There is no difference between a project in Cambodia with Thai investors and one with Cambodian investors benefits are valued the same, whether these are realised in the country where the plant is located or in another GMS country

25 Total costs with impacts (2025) US$ bn / year PDPs RE Scenario EE Scenario Global Regional Global Regional Investment O&M Fuel Financial cost Carbon Pollutants Land take Resettlement Impacts TOTAL

26 Total costs with impacts (2025) $bn/year Global Impacts Regional Impacts Global Impacts Current PDPs RE Scenario EE Scenario Regional Impacts Resettlement Land take Pollutants Carbon Fuel O&M Investment

27 Coming to a conclusion When the total economic costs of electricity supply are taken into account, including its wider environmental and social impacts, there is little difference between the current power development paths and alternative paths oriented towards increased use of renewables The analysis suggests that increased energy efficiency is unambiguously better, both in the direct financial costs and in total economic costs of electricity supply

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