PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS

Transcription

1 PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS Participating In Today s Webinar You have joined today's Webinar listening through your computer's speaker system by default. If you would like to call in using the phone, locate your Audio Pane and select Use Telephone. The dial-in information and access code will then be displayed. You also have the ability to ask questions using your Questions Pane. Simply type in your question and click Send. At the end of the presentation we will do a Q & A session and take as many questions as we have time for. 1

2 PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS WHAT DO I DO WITH ALL THIS DATA? March 31, :00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST Presented by Clyde Wesp, MD Executive Clinical Strategist at Jacobus Consulting

3 WEBINAR SERIES OVERVIEW WEBINAR 1: Why is Predictive analytics important? WEBINAR 2: How do organizations get there? WEBINAR 3: What are the steps I need to take? 3

4 LEARNING OBJECTIVES-SERIES # 1 At the end of Webinar # 1, the participant will: Be aware of the forces that drive the need for analytics in the future Understand why predictive analytics is important to an organization Understand the predictive analytics spectrum Understand how to take the next step on your journey to Predictive Analytics 4

5 OVERVIEW 1. The Current Healthcare Digital landscape 2. The Analytics Spectrum 3. Example of how analytics will help organizations make decisions 4. Next steps 5

6 THE CURRENT DIGITAL LANDSCAPE The move to digital data in healthcare

7 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE-MOVE TO DIGITAL 7

8 THE CURRENT LANDSCAPE Report to Congress,

9 Update on the Adoption of Health IT and Related Efforts to Facilitate the Electronic Use and Exchange of Health Information: February

10 PERCENT OF HOSPITALS, BY TYPE, THAT POSSESS CERTIFIED HEALTH IT Across all hospital types, more than 90% have certified EHR technology in 2014 Large Medium Small Urban Small Rural Critical Access 99% 98% 98% 96% 94% Percent of hospital types with certified EHR technology 10

11 MORE THAN 8 IN 10 PHYSICIANS HAD ADOPTED AN EHR Figure 1: Proportion of physicians who reported using an EHR by type of EHR, 2014 Percent of Physicians Any EHR Certified EHR Basic EHR «Almost threequarters of physicians had adopted a certified EHR. «51% of physicians were using all Basic EHR functionalities. Source: Jamoom E. Yang N, Hing E. Percentage of office-based physicians using any electronic health records or electronic medical records, physicians that have a basic system, and physicians that have a certified system, by state: United States, 2014 (table)

12 % of all Physicians that have Adopted Certified EHRs National Average = 74% 0-25% 26-50% 51-75% % Source: 2014 National Electronic Health Records Survey (NEHRS) 12

13 MEANINGFUL USE CRITERIA Stage 1 focus on: Electronically capturing health information in a standardized format Using that information to track key clinical conditions Communicating that information for care coordination processes Initiating the reporting of clinical quality measures and public health information Using information to engage patients and their families in their care Stage 2 focus on: More rigorous health information exchange (HIE) Increased requirements for e- prescribing and incorporating lab results Electronic transmission of patient care summaries across multiple settings More patient-controlled data 13

14 MEANINGFUL USE STAGE 3 CRITERIA Stage 3 focus on: Improving quality, safety, and efficiency, leading to improved health outcomes Decision support for national high-priority conditions Patient access to selfmanagement tools Access to comprehensive patient data through patientcentered HIE Improving population health 14

15 15

16 HEALTHCARE IS DIGITAL 16

17 HIT STRATEGIC PLAN- GOAL 2: TRANSFORM HEALTH CARE DELIVERY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH Objective A: Improve health care quality, access, and experience through safe, timely, effective, efficient, equitable, and person-centered care Increase capturing and reporting of quality measures, patient experience, adherence to evidence-based guidelines, and improved person-centered health outcomes Promote data collection, clinical decision support, and analytic capabilities that help lead to precision medicine Promote analytic capabilities that identify underserved or at risk individuals and communities to target timely health interventions 17

18 FIRMS HAVE SPENT MANY YEARS BUILDING ENTERPRISE DATA WAREHOUSES (EDWS) AND USING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (BI) TOOLS TO REPORT ON THE BUSINESS. BUT PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IS DIFFERENT ADVANCED STATISTICAL, DATA MINING AND MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS DIG DEEPER TO FIND PATTERNS THAT TRADITIONAL BI TOOLS MAY NOT REVEAL. Mike Gualtieri, Forrester Research 18

19 POLLING QUESTION On a scale of 1 to 5, How ready is your organization to comply with the Federal Health IT Goals?

20 TRANSFORMING CARE The digital revolution in healthcare demands that organizations use data in an analytical way to report on outcomes Data Analytics: How do you use data to meet new demands? 20

21 THE ANALYTICS SPECTRUM We are being asked to improve care, document outcomes, decrease cost- How do you that in the digital environment?

22 DEFINITIONS WEBSTER S DICTIONARY: analytics is the method of logical analysis! ONLINE DEFINITION: the systematic computational analysis of data or statistics DICTIONARY.COM: Defines it three ways depending on whether the verb is singular or plural. 22

23 BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TO THE NTH DEGREE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS KICKS BI UP A NOTCH, BY USING ALGORITHMS TO FIND PATTERNS AND DEVELOP PROBABILITIES TO PREDICT SIMILAR FUTURE OUTCOMES. The top five reasons why companies want to use predictive analytics are to: Predict trends Understand customers Improve business performance Drive strategic decision-making Predict behavior TDWI (The Data Warehousing Institute) Research 23

24 THE PREDICTIVE/PRESCRIPTIVE ANALYTICS APPROACH Value What happened? Descriptive Analytics Why did it happen? Diagnostic Analytics What will happen? Predictive Analytics How can we make it happen? Prescriptive Analytics Information Optimization Hindsight Insight Foresight Difficulty 4 Attributes of Predictive Analytics: 1. An emphasis on prediction 2. Rapid analysis measured in hours or days 3. An emphasis on the relevance of the resulting insights 4. An emphasis on ease of use Recreated from Gartner 24

25 POLLING QUESTION Where is your organization along the analytics spectrum?

26 ANALYTICS FOR BETTER DECISIONS Applying analytics to solve organizational issues

27 REDUCE READMISSIONS Business Intelligence-Current State Current Business Intelligence tools would present a dashboard of information determined by leadership, clinicians, technology, etc. HgbA1C Age Gender Cardiac function Medications Results and knowledge are linear and single variable Predictive Analytics-Future State Predictive Analytics would take all information in data base and look at patterns and relationships that a dashboard cannot show. Which set of risk factors will end a person back in the ED or hospital The relationship between multiple factors HgbA1C Age Gender Cardiac function Medications Family status (married, single, living alone) Diet Unsuspected relationships may exist that cannot be seen by looking at a dashboard 27

28 IMPROVING WOMEN S WELLNESS Questions The Executive leadership and board of trustees have decided to build a women s center and would like to know what services you want to include in the center? 1. What is the age distribution of our female population? 2. What % of our female population are diabetics- Type 1 and Type 2? 3. What % of our female population has elevated BMI? 4. What % of females have BRCA genetic predisposition to Breast Cancer 5. What is the relationship between Type 2 diabetes and BRCA in women who have an elevated BMI? Are there differences in risk depending upon the relationship among the factors? 6. Is there a geographic component that you can add into the mix? May be ethnic community makeup? May be a socio-economic component 28

29 THE GOAL IS TO GO FROM ANALYZING PAST STATISTICS AND REPORTS TO HAVING THE FORESIGHT TO ANALYZE WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE. 29

30 COMMON CHALLENGES Setting goals-not having a specific goal in mind at the beginning Thinking it is only data that you need no SME needed Shooting for the stars on the first try Creating a model but having no way to represent it Where is the data? Do I have the right data in my systems? Waiting for perfect data Ownership and Privacy Organizational Structure 30

31 THE INTENTION OF PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IS TO STREAMLINE DECISION MAKING AND PRODUCE NEW INSIGHTS THAT [ ] 31

32 WHAT NEXT? 32

33 ROADMAP TO PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS Assess current technical state Current data bases Where is information in your system How can data be collated to be accessible Preparing your data Establish Information Governance Where is the source of truth for your data elements Who has access to the information Determine Organizational Structure Is the organization ready to use data Does it have the needed expertise to manage the data that provides information Alignment of business and clinical goals 33

34 A JOURNEY OF A THOUSAND MILES BEGINS WITH A SINGLE STEP. CONFUCIUS 34

35 THANKS FOR LISTENING! 35

36 ? YOUR QUESTIONS Send your questions through the chat pane We ll ask our team your questions live

37 COMING SOON UPCOMING WEBINARS Reimbursement Management Revenue Integrity The Power of A/R Analytics Results of a Transformed Revenue Cycle Predictive Analytics: How do organizations get there? Dr. Clyde Wesp, Adjunct Professor USC & Executive Clinical Strategist egister: ww.jacobusconsulting.com

38 ? 1 MIN SURVEY e value your feedback! Please answer a few quick questions so we can continue to provide you with valuable content.