Ecosystem-based Adaptation in Central Asia Experiences with Vulnerability Assessment for EbA from Central Asia

Transcription

1 Ecosystem-based Adaptation in Central Asia Experiences with Vulnerability Assessment for EbA from Central Asia , Dushanbe, Tajikistan The GIZ regional project Ecosystem-based Adaptation to Climate Change in High Mountainous Regions of Central Asia is a part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) supports this initiative on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag. 28/11/2016 XXX 1

2 Regional Project Ecosystem-based Adaptation to climate change in high mountainous regions of Central Asia The project pursues 2 main objectives: Methodology Development: to make available innovative, cost-efficient approaches and strategies for implementing ecosystem-based adaptation in the high mountain regions of Central Asia. Policy Dialogue: to systematically anchor an adapted to CA EbA methodology in the climate adaptation policy and planning processes of the CA countries as well as in adaptation programs of international development partners 2

3 Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Potential Impact + - Vulnerability 3

4 Framework for Vulnerability Analysis (VA) The framework was synthesised from methods published by GIZ, UNEP, WB and GEF and includes feedback from WWF US. Literature used: GEF, 2012, Operational Guidelines on Ecosystem-based Approaches to Adaptation GIZ, 2012, Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Natural Resources Management GIZ, 2015, Pilot Activities in Vanj District on Adaptation to Climate Change and Forest Management GTZ, 2010, Climate Proofing for Development UNEP, 2015, Guidance on Integrating Ecosystem Considerations into Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Assessment for Inform Ecosystem-based Adaptation (VIAG Guidance) World Bank, 2009, Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia 4

5 Project Partners Political project partners Respective line minisitries in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan & Kazakhstan Implementing Partners of GIZ Mountain Society Research Institute (MSRI) of University of Central Asia (UCA) Michael Succow Foundation for the Protection of Nature GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience UNIQUE Forestry & Landuse 5

6 Framework for Vulnerability Analysis (VA) 1. Definition of scope 2. Assessment of current vulnerability 3. Development of scenarios for change 4. Scenarios for future vulnerability 5. Assessment of key vulnerabilities 6. Strategy for ecosystem-based adaptation 6

7 Task Method and format Description of socialecological system Participatory mapping of ESS; description of current climate and socioeconomic factors Exposure Current vulnerability of social-ecological system Potential Impact Sensitivity (identification of important climatic parameters) natural system social system Adaptive capacity (response to climate variability and extremes) natural system social natural system biotic abiotic syste m biotic abiotic biotic abiotic Field Expert Partici Field Expert Partici Field Expert study, study, patory study, study, patory study study mappin mappin field mappin mappin field g g study g g study exposu exposu sensiti sensiti re of re vity of vity ESS to ESS to CC CC social system Desk review & participa tory field study Output Report Report Report Repor Report Report Report Report Report Report 7

8 Step 5: Assessment of key vulnerabilities & identification of related ecosystem-services Task Assessment of key vulnerabilities (IPCC): magnitude & timing of impacts, persistence & reversibility of impacts, likelihood (estimates of uncertainty) of impacts and vulnerabilities, confidence in those estimates, potential for adaptation, distributional aspects of impacts and vulnerabilities, importance of the system(s) at risk Identificatio n of ESS relating to key vulnerabiliti es Method and format Village workshops; expert/project workshops Expert study Output Report Report, guidelines 8

9 Step 6: Definition of EbA strategy for the pilot watersheds Task Define EbA measures Inventory of EbA measures enhancing identified ESS (use Vanj experience) Assessment of EbA measures: Cost-effectiveness, co-benefits, cost-benefit ratio/trade-offs, representativeness, potential for up-scaling, potential to attract funding, potential for private sector involvement Selection of EbA measures Use Vanj guidelines Output List of measures List of measures Measures selected, guidelines 9

10 Potsdam workhsop how to link the analyses in our consortium Development of EbA strategy 10

11 With the communities steps for EbA in the pilots 0. Definition of scope & training of facilitators 1. VA / ecosystem services assessment (& livelihood strategies, land-use) 2. (Adapted) projections for climate change 3. Community workshop I a. For preparation: VA s and climate information b. Scenario-planning c. Identification of options for adaptation 4. Priorisation of options for adaptation and feasibility studies 5. Community workshop II a. Joint agreement on ecosystem-based adaptation strategy b. Kick-off & implementation of EbA strategy and process Development of EbA strategy 11

12 Seasonal projections based on livelihoods 12

13 Conceptual model (based on Open Standards Methodology) 13

14 Scenario planning Discuss with community scenario axes and choose two with most negative impacts on their livelihood strategies Be flexible while discussing (if necessary change seasonal projections during workshop) Stays the same Spring Precipitation Gets more decrease Summer Temperature increase Gives >>possible futures<< to support planning under uncertainty 14

15 Summer Temperature increase Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Stays the same Spring Precipitation Gets more Scenario 4 Scenario 3 decrease 15

16 With the communities steps for EbA in the pilots 0. Definition of scope & training of facilitators 1. VA / ecosystem services assessment (& livelihood strategies, land-use) 2. (Adapted) projections for climate change 3. Community workshop I a. For preparation: VA s and climate information b. Scenario-planning c. Identification of options for adaptation 4. Priorisation of options for adaptation and feasibility studies 5. Community workshop II a. Joint agreement on ecosystem-based adaptation strategy b. Kick-off & implementation of EbA strategy and process Development of EbA strategy 16

17 Thank you very much! Questions? 17

18 Implemented by As a federal enterprise, GIZ supports the German Government in achieving its objectives in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development. Published by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Registered offices, Bonn and Eschborn, Germany Regional Project Ecosystem-based Adaptation to climate change in high mountainous regions of Central Asia Ayni St. / Nazarshoev str Dushanbe, Tajikistan Responsible Benedikt Ibele Author(s) Benedikt Ibele, Claudia Haller, Umed Bulbushoev, Paul Schumacher Photo credits GIZ / CAMP Tabiat Layout Indika Kochkarova M E benedikt.ibele@giz.de I /11/2016 XXX 18

19 Siponj Altitude at 2300 Size of village 100 ha Households 97 Population 328 people Land Use - Irrigate agriculture forest, pasture Economic base livestock keeping, farming Natural Hazards 19

20 Natural Hazards Flood Mud flow Rack fall Avalanche 20

21 Darzhomj Altitude 2400 Size of village 50 ha Land Use - Irrigate agriculture, forest, pasture Households 58 Population 128 people Economic base Livestock keeping, farming Natural Hazards 21

22 Natural Hazards Flood Mud flow Rock fall Avalanche Water flashing 22

23 EbA agent Final product users Where do we want to go? International Financial Institutions (e.g. WB, GCF, GEF, USAID, ADB, Munich RE) Demand for scalable EbA package fitting the procurement rules Final product: package of descriptions of EbA subproducts according to the focus and interest of government and development partners National Governments* Capacity development on EbA International Technical Coorporations (e.g. GIZ, WWF, IUCN, MSS, CBD, MSRI) Civil Society Local private sector Scientific organizations Mass media Communities National Government* EbA sub-products EbA sub-products EbA sub-products EbA sub-products EbA sub-products EbA sub-products e.g: Making use of environmental NGOs for EbA implementation Environmental education e.g: Microfinance products on EbA dessimination Agro-tourism e.g: Climate scenarios Capacity bulding e.g: EbA heating up the system Awareness raising on EbA e.g: Steps for devsing EbA strategy with communities Outcomes of tested adaptation options e.g: EbA Leadership training Integration of EbA in strategic planning Development of EbA strategy *agent and final product user 23

24 Potsdam workhsop how to link the analyses in our consortium Development of EbA strategy 24

25 Title of the presentation 25

26 Projections for climate change and scenario planning for EbA in Siponj and Darjomj, Bartang

27 Outline 1. Introduction to scenario planning 2. Projections for climate change in the pilot watersheds 3. Scenario planning exercise

28 1. What is scenario planning? Supports planning in situations with high levels of uncertainty and low level of control Combines axes of possible changes + precipitation - Gives >>possible futures<< to support planning under uncertainty

29 Scenario planning Hot & wet + temperature - Hot & dry + precipitation - Cold & wet Cold & dry

30 2. Projections Developed by CCSR (Columbia University & NASA) Seasons adapted to livelihoods: Spring: March, April, May Summer: June, July, August Autumn: September, October Winter: November, December, Januray, February For planning period Sample of 33 GCMs, WMO data (modelled and downscaled)

31 A. Temperature:

32 Projected temperature and precipitation changes for the period of 2011 until 2040 compared to the 1980 to 2005 average for the villages of Darjomj and Siponj winter spring summer fall Low High Low High Low High Low High Avg. Temperature Change (degc) 0,8 1,8 0,8 1,9 1,1 1,8 1,1 2,1 Future absolute climate for the time period of 2011 to 2040 for the villages of Darjomj and Siponj winter spring summer fall Low High Low High Low High Low High Avg. Temperature (degc) -9,6-8,6-0,8 0,3 11,5 12,2 5,4 6,4

33 Absoulute projected seasonal temperatures C ( ) compared to historical temperatures ( ) winter spring summer fall historical -10,5-1,6 10,4 4, low -9,6-0,8 11,5 5, hi -8,6 0,3 12,2 6,4

34 B. Precipitation

35 Projected temperature and precipitation changes for the period of 2011 until 2040 compared to the 1980 to 2005 average for the villages of Darjomj and Siponj winter spring summer fall Low High Low High Low High Low High Precipitation Change (%) Future absolute climate for the time period of 2011 to 2040 for the villages of Darjomj and Siponj winter spring summer fall Low High Low High Low High Low High Precipitation (mm) 66,5 80,

36 Summary & possible impacts Projected annual temperature increase from 0.9 to 1.9 C Precipitation projections wide range, particularly in summer and autumn; in winter & spring no change or increase up to 21% Possible impacts: continuation of retreat of glaciers, earlier snow melt possible in combination with more precipitation as rain possibly results in changed runoff regimes (more runoff in spring, less in late summer and autumn)

37 3. Scenario-planning excercise

38 Scenario planning Hot & wet + temperature - Hot & dry + precipitation - Cold & wet Cold & dry

39 Axes for scenario planning in Siponj and Darjomj Which of the projected climatic changes are affecting peoples livelihoods most severe?

40 Average projected temperature changes 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0-5,0-10,0-15,0-20,0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec historical low hi