RADAR: Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine. Applying RADAR to Hurricane Mitch in Honduras
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1 RADAR: Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine Applying RADAR to Hurricane Mitch in Honduras Andrea Borgia SDRN consultant Rome, 2002 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
2 Applying RADAR to Hurricane Mitch in Honduras Theory. Agricultural environment. Physical phenomena. Parcels and data base. Conceptual model. Impact evaluation. FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
3 Theory: flow-chart of assessment routine Definition of the event. Definition of the area of impact. Definition of the intensity. Definition of the value. Definition of the percentage loss. Calculation of the damage. FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
4 Theory: two equations Damage. σ y = D E = V ca * L ca A C a Error propagation. ( ) dcda df ( x) r σ xi σ x j σ xi σ x j df ( x) i dx i dx j j 1 2 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
5 Agricultural environment: infrastructure FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
6 Agricultural environment: population FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
7 Agricultural environment: potential land use FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
8 Physical phenomena: track of Hurricane Mitch FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
9 Physical phenomena: IR image of Hurricane Mitch FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
10 Physical phenomena: Mean annual rainfall FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
11 Physical phenomena: Mitch total rainfall FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
12 Physical phenomena: flooded areas FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
13 Rain + Flood + Land use + Departments = Parcels FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
14 Parcels FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
15 Department Tot Prod (000 MT Data base: actual value for maize production in each department ±Error (000 MT Area Harveste ±Error (ha) Price Lempira/US $Price (Lempira/ (US $/MT Potentia Value ±Error (US $) Percent oactual Va Value at r (US $) ±Error (US $) Atlantida ,285, , ,400, ,66 Colon ,297, , ,108, ,93 Comayagua ,733, , ,713, ,67 Copan ,732, , ,412, ,79 Cortes ,420, , ,194, ,85 Choluteca ,931, , ,451, ,70 Paraiso ,161,835365, ,513, ,86 Francisco Morazan ,627, , ,639, ,45 Gracias a Dios ,232 6, ,963 4,43 Intibuca ,251, , ,675, ,20 Islas de Bahia ,969 1, , La Paz ,633,279 79, ,843,295 55,69 Lempira ,286, , ,400, ,21 Ocotepeque ,822,690 84, ,975,883 59,09 Olancho ,320, , ,924, ,35 Santa Barbara ,145,327304, ,101, ,17 Valle ,181,121 66, ,526,785 46,23 Yoro ,999, , ,499, ,40 Total ,064,1421,099, ,544, ,51 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
16 Tools for generating the conceptual model Intensity Region Parcel? Agua Parcel? Bosque 1 Moderate rain Area 2 High rain Parcel? Cultivo Parcel? Pasto 3 Torrential rain 4 Flood Data link Assess Model Transf FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
17 Conceptual model Islas de Bahia Copan Santa Barbara Cortes Atlantida Colon Gracias a Dios Yoro Ocotepeque Lempira Comayagua Olancho Intibuca La Paz F. Morazan El Paraiso Valle Choluteca FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
18 Conceptual model and data base Colon Pasto Flood System Component Value (US$) ±Error Magnitude Intensity Loss % ±Error % Damage ±Error Basic Labor IV Aldeas IV Plots IV ,755, ,442 5,877,849 2,376,713 Activities Livestoks: Cattle 86,137,550 5,624,344 IV ,613,755 4,343,446 Dairy 79,176,940 7,401,524 IV ,917,694 4,027,443 Activities supporting Access IV Buildings IV ,224,572 3,540,928 12,224,572 3,746,008 Machinery IV Total damage (US$) 34,633,869 7,400,484 Isla s de Ba hia C opan San ta Ba rba ra C or te s A tla ntida Colon G r a cias a D io s Y or o O cot e p e qu e L e m pir a C omayagua Olan c ho Copan Intib u ca L a Pa z F. M or az an Hurricane Mitch Disaster E l Pa r ai so Department Impact V all e US $ ±Error C holu te ca 9,550,427 6,562,122 Parcel type Impact ±Error Bosque 52, ,843 Cultivo 1,052, ,603 Frutal 8,201,513 4,137,413 Pasto 244,025 5,081,046 Total impact (US$) 9,550,427 6,562,122 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
19 Value density FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
20 Percentage loss Activity Type Bosque Event type System Component Flood ±Error Torrential rain ±Error High rain ±Error Moderate rain ±Error Activities Forestry Activities supporting Access Machinery Cultivo Basic Labor Aldeas Plots Activities Crops: Bananas Beans, dry Cassava Maize Melon Onions, dry Oil palm Plantains Potatoes Rice, Paddy Soybeans Sugar cane Tobacco leaves Life supporting Basic Water Fertilizers Activities supporting Access Buildings Instruments Machinery Frutal Basic Labor Aldeas Plots Activities Crops: Cocoa, beans Coffee Life supporting Fertilizers Activities supporting Access Buildings Machinery Pasto Basic Labor Aldeas Plots Activities Livestoks: Cattle Dairy Activities supporting Access Buildings Machinery FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
21 Percentage loss FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
22 Impact density FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
23 Hurricane Mitch Disaster Country Impact US $ ±Error Negative impact = damage 750,704,518 60,516,525 Department impact Parcel type Bosque Cultivo Frutal Pasto total impact US $ ±Error US $ ±Error US $ ±Error US $ ±Error US $ ±Error Atlantida 1,769, ,005 6,149, ,356 1,186,845 1,186,845 2,872, ,005 11,978,669 1,840,942 Colon 2,981, ,799 21,140,011 1,481, ,362 67,828 36,206,719 7,348,228 60,604,863 7,515,531 Comayagua 534,932 1,605,045 7,391,038 1,237,245 23,371,018 7,946,298 1,358,276 1,934,215 32,655,264 8,425,662 Copan 52, ,843 5,300,322 1,031,631 24,604,539 8,365, , ,351 30,732,767 8,440,970 Cortes 712, ,280 55,620,003 3,310,556 10,259,434 2,625, , ,501 66,964,675 4,331,422 Choluteca 630, ,369 9,213, ,390 2,625, , , ,433 12,857,461 1,031,720 Paraiso 2,411,293 2,067,536 9,067,302 1,239,398 33,461,546 23,975, , ,894 45,304,608 24,097,068 Francisco Morazan 2,305,982 2,031,747 7,526,226 1,146,425 7,860,644 1,994, , ,108 18,419,549 3,134,157 Gracias a Dios 8,360,817 3,590,134 1,955, ,316 61,953 12, ,178,290 38,449, ,556,266 38,617,360 Intibuca 266, ,171 4,181, ,526 7,940,412 1,124,739 2,634,262 3,750,008 15,022,986 4,082,817 Islas de Bahia 170, ,342 86,831 15, , , ,755 La Paz 423, ,701 1,628, ,595 19,370,309 19,370,309 4,210,364 2,507,377 25,632,451 19,543,468 Lempira 488,663 1,466,217 4,020, ,457 13,016,028 4,426,137 1,948,435 2,774,029 19,473,739 5,507,232 Ocotepeque 36, ,111 2,045, ,827 10,289,104 3,498, ,482 1,201,318 13,295,574 3,715,033 Olancho 6,468,796 6,908,295 17,074,878 2,062,052 20,655,814 7,023,827 45,374,929 11,037,385 89,574,418 14,937,691 Santa Barbara 631,501 1,894,792 10,200,522 1,536,589 37,215,753 12,653, , ,665 48,486,310 12,901,929 Valle 173, ,473 1,330, ,931 24,402 6,101 5,853,889 1,898,331 7,382,638 1,926,204 Yoro 3,990,659 2,252,585 59,680,209 6,372,526 21,834,418 21,834, ,194 85,505,286 22,856,946 total 32,410,766 9,238, ,613,060 8,276, ,054,066 42,604, ,626,627 41,148, ,704,518 60,516,525 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
24 RADAR: Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine By analysing: Agricultural environment Physical event Then: the area of impact is subdivided into parcels By giving: Values to the components of the milieu Percentage loss Then: the impact is obtained FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
25 Conclusions The Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine: It is an efficient procedure for rapid impact assessment It allows both, risk and impact evaluation It is an essential tool for strategic planning during: intervention monitoring recovery FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE ED NATIONS
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