Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM)

Transcription

1 Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Food Security Analysis Food security analysis, commonly known as Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) is a core function of WFP s work. It forms the basis for the design of all operations. Prior to any interventions, WFP undertakes an analysis of the food security situation in the area and answers some critical questions: WHY? are they food insecure or vulnerable HOW MANY? are they WHO? is food insecure or vulnerable HOW? WHERE? do they live is the situation likely to evolve and what are the risks threatening them WHAT? should be done to save their lives and livelihoods The information that food security analysis provides allows WFP to: Identify the most food-insecure people to ensure the most effective targeting; Select the most appropriate type and scale of intervention (e.g. food distributions, school feeding, cash or voucher programmes); Ensure the most efficient use of humanitarian resources by allocating funding according to needs. Partnership WFP undertakes food security analysis in close collaboration with partners worldwide, including governments, UN agencies, local/international NGOs, regional bodies and academic institutions. These partnerships ensure a shared understanding of food security problems and common priorities for action.

2 VAM provides: Geospatial analysis Assessments and food security analysis and monitoring Economic analysis Thematic analysis (special focus documents) Post shock assessments VAM in numbers: 200 FOOD SECURITY ANALYSTS out of 15,000 WFP staff WORKING IN MORE THAN COUNTRIES % VAM accounts for less than 0.5% of ANNUAL BUDGET 100% OF PROJECT DOCUMENTS are BASED ON VAM ANALYSES

3 3 VAM and Open Data VAM endeavours to make all the food security data it collects as open as possible, in order to provide the most accurate and timely information. All information is freely available online at the VAM One Stop Shop (vam.wfp.org), an innovative platform that features the latest food security data, publications and analytical tools, together with anonymized aggregated data, which is hosted in an open databank. Through an API, anyone can access the data and use it for their own analysis. Users can browse through information on the site by year, assessment type, fieldwork status, and country. The site offers an overview of the food security situation in all countries where WFP works, including a list of all assessments and bulletins, as well as detailed information on key indicators such as market prices, baseline and monitoring data. In order to make the data more easily digestible, VAM also offers a number of data visualizations on dataviz.vam.wfp.org. The platform currently features agro-climatic and economic data, with additional data streams slated to be added in the near future. The Seasonal Explorer features time series datasets for a near-global set of administrative divisions, going back to 1981 for rainfall and 2002 for vegetation, while the Economic Explorer features price data from close to 80 countries, plus macro-economic indicators and a global currencies dashboard. VAM also provides data related to food security to HDX, the Humanitarian Data Exchange (data.humdata.org), an open platform developed by Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), which aims to accelerate data flows in the humanitarian sector and reduce the time between data collection and decision-making. The VAM shop home page - Assessments and Food Security Analysis VAM conducts a variety of food security assessments, which help to identify vulnerable communities and assess levels of food insecurity: Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA) Also referred to as a baseline survey, a CFSVA provides an in-depth picture of the food security situation during a non-crisis period. A CFSVA contains a breadth of information (food consumption patterns, education, nutrition, markets, livelihoods), and includes an analysis of risks and vulnerabilities. It usually covers an entire country and is valid for up to five years. CFSVAs provide critical information on food security that informs the design of the first post-emergency needs assessments, serve as an essential benchmark against which to measure change after a crisis, and inform contingency planning and preparedness. Emergency Food Security Assessment (EFSA) An EFSA is undertaken following a disaster or a shock. It covers affected geographic areas to determine the impact on households and their livelihoods and to provide response recommendations on food and non-food assistance options.

4 Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod) Economic Analysis Economic analysis and monitoring is undertaken to provide critical information on food availability and on the functioning of markets that households depend upon to acquire food. It also provides crucial information on transfer modality selection and impact of food assistance on markets. Economic analysis also helps WFP to identify the most appropriate forms of intervention (e.g. cash-based or food assistance) and to assess the impact of current programmes on local markets, including traders/shops, food prices and spending patterns, providing recommendations on how to optimize the efficiency and value for money to beneficiaries. Information collected at the market level or collated from national institutions is channelled into a quarterly bulletin The Market Monitor, which serves as a monitoring tool for analysing price volatility. VAM has developed a light version of the Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod), an economic modelling system, which provides early quantitative estimates of food insecurity for the current situation as well as the anticipated scenarios in the near future. SISMod has been used in a variety of crisis situations, to provide preliminary estimates of household food security in Ebola-affected areas, in conflict zones such as Yemen, and to estimate the short to midterm impact of a sudden-onset disaster, such as the 2015 earthquakes in Nepal. The EFSA serves as the basis for the design of relief and recovery operations as it identifies the number of people in need and the appropriate type and duration of assistance. It can be in the form of an initial, rapid or in-depth assessment. Focusing on speed and usability for immediate programmatic decision-making, the VAM team in the Asia Regional Bureau also developed a 72-hour assessment methodology, a rapid assessment that would highlight the most-affected areas and populations in the immediate aftermath of a disaster. Joint Assessment Missions (JAM) Joint Assessment Missions are conducted in collaboration with UNHCR to understand the food and nutrition situation, needs, risks, capacities and vulnerabilities of refugees or internally displaced people. Crop and Food Security Missions (CFSAM) CFSAMs are conducted jointly with FAO, usually for emergencies related to agricultural production or overall food availability problems, always in response to a government request. The mission analyses the supply and demand for staple foods, estimates any uncovered staple food import requirement for the coming year and analyses households access to food. Post - Hurricane "Matthew" Emergency Food Security Assessment (EFSA), January 2017 The State of Food Insecurity in Yemen based on the Emergency Food Security and Nutrition Assessment (EFSNA), April

5 The ALert for Price Spike (ALPS) The ALert for Price Spikes is an indicator that monitors the extent to which a local food commodity market experiences unusually high food price levels. It shows abnormal price levels of selected staple commodities and the number of markets per country with high food prices. The ALPS allows comparison between markets at the same time or over different periods for the same market. The methodology is based on empirical work undertaken at the Centre of Research and Studies on Economic Development (CERDI). The ALPS is derived from the difference between the latest observed price available and the corresponding seasonal price trend. The ALPS aims to provide information to humanitarian aid professionals, scholars, students and anyone interested in food security implications of staple food price volatility. It informs WFP s internal operational programming related to cash, vouchers, and local procurement while triggering early warning and further food security and market analysis including monitoring. Thematic Analysis WFP VAM publishes Special Focus documents when an emerging food security issue deserves in-depth attention. Each Special Focus bulletin provides essential elements of analysis for decision makers. Sources of information include WFP s network of VAM experts, and our partners. The market specific graphs show the ALPS classification for a certain commodity. The classification indicates the periods where the actual price (black line) was above/below the estimated trend (blue dotted line). Then it attributes colour codes (colour-shaded bars) according to the severity of the gap between both lines. 5

6 6 Mobile Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (mvam) Initiative Taking advantage of expanding network coverage and cell phone ownership, VAM uses mobile surveys to collect high-frequency data from households (food consumption, coping strategies, nutrition indicators) and key informants (market prices, access). Remote mobile data collection provides a more flexible and efficient way to collect information: surveys are cheaper, faster, and can be conducted even in unstable areas without putting enumerators at risk. Data collection methods are tailored to the needs of each location, and include live calls, Interactive Voice Response (IVR), SMS, and online surveys. Mobile surveys Respondents are contacted on their mobile phones Live calls SMS Surveys Interactive Voice Response Online surveys mvam was piloted in 2013 at WFP offices in Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Galkayo, Somalia. The first country-wide SMS and IVR-based food security monitoring system was launched in September 2014, when mvam was used in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone in support of the Ebola emergency response. As of June 2017, mvam had been used in 33 countries where WFP operates, including in five major emergency responses. The data collected through mvam is used to monitor rapidly-evolving situations and to inform decision-making in the humanitarian community, well beyond WFP s internal needs. 2-way communication platforms Free Basics Free Basics is an initiative by Facebook that aims to provide the 2/3 of the world s population who do not have internet with basic web access. Data is anonymized and cleaned Humanitarian decision making process Live calls Interactive Voice Response Data is stored in a database and analyzed by a stats engine Results and data are shared as a global public good 2-Way Communication Respondents contact WFP on their mobile phones In development Respondents listen to information from WFP or record their feedback: Dates of food distributions Food prices Information on WFP projects

7 VAM began using the platform in November 2016, as a way to make food security data more readily available to local communities in the countries where WFP works. Through Free Basics, anyone with a feature phone is able to access data made available by VAM, and to give WFP feedback on the food security situation in their community. Free Basics is currently in use in Malawi, where people can access price data from markets across the country, and will be rolled out in other countries where the service is available. Chatbots In partnership with Nielsen and InSTEDD, VAM has developed an open-source chatbot that can collect and share real-time information about food security. Using Natural Language Processing, the bot is able to chat with users over a browser or a smartphone, pulling information from VAM s databases to share food security information for various locations. The chatbot is currently being field-tested where users can chat with WFP in English and local languages and share information on the food security situation in their own community. Integrated Phase Classification WFP is an active member of the Global IPC steering committee and other technical working groups within the IPC structure. IPC is a multi-agency platform bringing partners together for consensus building, increasing transparency and improving quality of assessments. The IPC has 12 members from within key organisations focusing on food security. WFP is also a member of Cadre Harmonisé (CH), the Harmonised Framework for the analysis and identification of areas at risk and vulnerable groups in the Sahel. Food Security Information Network (FSIN) FAO, WFP and IFPRI launched the FSIN in October 2012, to establish a global initiative to strengthen food security and nutrition analysis and decision-making. FSIN offers a common platform for standards setting and knowledge sharing and links countries capacity needs with existing initiatives led by institutions, donors and partners at regional and global levels. Given the relatively recent emergence of resilience and the proliferation of food and nutrition indicators, two Technical Working Groups (TWG) were established under the FSIN. The TWGs are composed of world-renowned experts in their fields. The primary objective of the TWG on Measuring Food and Nutrition Security is to recommend the most effective possible dashboard of indicators to help FSIN stakeholders monitor progress towards meeting their food and nutrition security objectives over the coming decades. The TWG on Resilience Measurement developed technical guidelines and a Community of Practice on food and nutrition security resilience measurement in order to share methods, standards and lessons learned among practitioners. The Global Report on Food Crises 2017 was developed under the umbrella of the FSIN and with the leadership of the European Union in collaboration with UN Agencies (FAO, UNICEF and WFP), FEWS NET, Joint Research Centre (JRC), and regional bodies including the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Central American Integration System (SICA). This report speaks to the World Humanitarian Summit Grand Bargain commitment to provide evidence based and consensus driven needs assessment that can inform both humanitarian and development interventions. It uses a consultative process to compile food security analyses from around the world into a meaningful global public good. The report relies on the IPC/CH assessments to provide a clear picture of acute food insecurity situation in the world. 7

8 Geospatial Analysis Drawing on the skills and expertise of highly specialized staff, VAM processes large amounts of weather and Earth Observation data into key indicators that are combined with additional information for example on environmental and socioeconomic factors into narrative reports. These seasonal reports provide context and outline short to medium term perspectives for food security and livelihoods, helping WFP to develop intervention strategies before a crisis occurs. Very High-Resolution Satellite Imagery: In order to identify and monitor food security hotspots, where rapidly-evolving situations may necessitate intervention, VAM also analyses Very High-Resolution (VHR) Satellite Imagery, providing WFP with information on the needs of vulnerable communities which may require assistance. Call Detail Records (CDR): Sudden impact disasters often result in the displacement of large numbers of people, who are especially vulnerable and may be in need of support. Analysis of mobile phone Call Detail Records (CDR) can help provide an estimate of population movements following a disaster, helping the humanitarian community to identify where assistance is most needed. VAM has partnered with Flowminder/WorldPop, an NGO which aggregates, integrates and analyses anonymous mobile operator data, satellite and household survey data, in order to estimate population displacements following a crisis. The approach has been used to improve humanitarian assistance in Nepal following the 2015 earthquakes, and in Haiti following the passage of Hurricane Matthew in October Seasonal Explorer: the Seasonal Explorer is a tool for monitoring the performance of agricultural seasons. This system allows users to assess the performance of the current and past rainfall seasons, the timing and intensity of drier or wetter than average conditions and their impact on vegetation status at the subnational level for most countries. Contacts: Arif Husain Chief Economist and Deputy Director, Policy and Programme Division Analysis and Trends Service arif.husain@wfp.org Yvonne Forsen Deputy Head of VAM yvonne.forsen@wfp.org Asia and the Pacific Siemon Hollema siemon.hollema@wfp.org Middle East, North Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia Hazem Almadhy hazem.almahdy@wfp.org Western Africa Eric Jean Louis Branckaert eric.branckaert@wfp.org Eastern Africa Elliot Vhurumuku elliot.vhurumuku@wfp.org Southern Africa Andrew Odero andrew.odero@wfp.org Latin America and the Caribbean Byron Ponce-Segura byron.poncesegura@wfp.org VAM