Climate change impacts and adaptations on small-scale livestock production

Transcription

1 Internatonal Journal of Development and Sustanablty Onlne ISSN: Volume 2 Number 2 (203): Pages ISDS Artcle ID: IJDS Specal Issue: Development and Sustanablty n Afrca Part 2 Clmate change mpacts and adaptatons on small-scale lvestock producton Amon Taruvnga *, Voster Muchenje 2, Abbyssna Mushunje 3 Department of Agrcultural Economcs and Extenson n collaboraton wth Lvestock and Pasture Scence, Unversty of Fort Hare P. Bag X34 Alce, South Afrca 2 Department of Lvestock and Pasture Scence, Unversty of Fort Hare P. Bag X34 Alce, South Afrca 3 Department of Agrcultural Economcs and Extenson, Unversty of Fort Hare P. Bag X34 Alce, South Afrca Abstract The paper estmated the mpacts of clmate change and adaptatons on small-scale lvestock producton. The study s based on a survey of small-scale lvestock rural farmers across the Eastern Cape Provnce of South Afrca. Regresson estmates fnds that wth warmng, the probablty of choosng the followng speces ncreases; goats, dual purpose chcken (DPC), layers, donkeys and ducks. Hgh precptaton ncreases the probablty of choosng the followng anmals; beef, goats, DPC and donkeys. Further, soco-economc estmates ndcate that lvestock selecton choces are also condtoned by gender, age, martal status, educaton and household sze. The paper therefore concluded that as clmate changes, rural farmers swtch ther lvestock combnatons as a copng strategy. Unfortunately, rural farmers face a lmted preferred lvestock selecton pool that s combatable to harsh clmate whch mght translate to a bleak future for rural lvestock farmers. Keywords: Clmate change mpacts, Lvestock swtchng, Small-scale farmers Copyrght 203 by the Author(s) Publshed by ISDS LLC, Japan Internatonal Socety for Development and Sustanablty (ISDS) Cte ths paper as: Taruvnga, A., Muchenje V. and Mushunje, A. (203), Clmate change mpacts and adaptatons on small-scale lvestock producton, Internatonal Journal of Development and Sustanablty, Vol. 2 No. 2, pp * Correspondng author. E-mal address: ataruvnga@ufh.ac.za, amontalus@gmal.com

2 . Introducton Most poor Afrcan farmers depend on lvestock (Nn et al., 2007; Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008; Internatonal Food and Agrcultural Development (IFAD), 2009; Food and Agrcultural Organsaton (FAO), 2009; Internatonal Unon for Conservaton of Nature (IUCN), 200) normally kept as nsurance when crops fal (Fafchamps et al., 998). Pca-Camarra et al. (20, p. ) summarzed the drect and ndrect contrbuton of lvestock to poor rural household lvelhoods as follows; Frstly, "lvestock provde cash ncome or ncome n knd through the sale of anmals and / or the sale and consumpton of mlk, meat, eggs and other anmal products". Secondly, "lvestock are a form of savngs (captal growth through herd growth) and nsurance, as the sale of anmals provdes mmedate cash to deal wth sgnfcant or unexpected expendtures (for example, school or medcal fees)". Thrdly, "lvestock provde manure, draft power and transport servces, whch can be used on the household farm or exchanged on the market (for example, rental of bull for ploughng)". Fnally, "beng a source of wealth, lvestock not only contrbute to socal status but may possbly facltate access to fnancal servces, both n formal and nformal markets". Wth that background several authors argue that, safeguardng and ncreasng the poor`s returns from ther lvestock assets s expected to help them n ther endeavour to escape poverty (Brown, 2003; Delgado, 2003; Catley, 2008; Pca-Camarra, 2009). Unfortunately wth reference to clmate change more attenton has been gven to crops at the expense of lvestock (McCarthy et al., 200; Seo and Mendelsohn, 2007). Hassan and Nhemachena (2008) have argued that clmate s changng and mtgaton efforts to reduce sources of greenhouse gases wll take tme mplyng that adaptaton may therefore be a sustanable opton for developng poor countres. Need therefore arses to understand how clmate change may affect farmers` choces of lvestock wth the mplct goal of promotng smallholder farmers` lvestock adaptaton pathways n response to clmate change. Clmate affects lvestock n dfferent drect and ndrect ways (Adams et al., 999; McCarthy et al., 200). Ar temperature, humdty and wnd speed are capable of nfluencng growth rate, mlk producton, wool producton and reproducton (Adams et al., 999; McCarthy et al., 200; Parons et al., 200; Chase, 2006; Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008). From another dmenson, clmate change can affect the quantty and qualty of lvestock feed stuffs such as pasture and forage, (McCarthy et al., 200; Dxon et al., 2003; Hokns, 2004) sgnfcantly nfluencng farmers` lvestock selecton choces. Also, the severty and dstrbuton of lvestock dseases and parastes s condtoned by clmate change (McCarthy et al. 200; Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008; Thornton et al. 2008). To accommodate these varatons farmers normally adapt or swtch enterprses as a copng strategy. Of nterest and worth notng s the fact that farmers have survved and coped n varous ways over tme (Hassan and Nhemachena, 2008). Understandng of how farmers have survved and coped before presents an opportunty to promote sustanable local ndgenous knowledge. Supportng such approaches through publc polcy, research and nvestments may enhance adaptaton capacty of local farmers (Hassan and Nhemachena, ISDS 665

3 2008). Thus, promotng demand/clent based polcy, research and nvestment nstead of the generc supply based approaches. The paper s structured as follows: Secton 2 presents the problem statement and objectves, Sectons 3 and 4 summarzes the related lterature and the methodology used, Secton 5 presents descrptve and econometrc results and Secton 6 draws some conclusons and polcy nsghts. 2. Problem statement The relatonshp between the lvestock sector and clmate change s much more complex and generally overlooked (Relly et al., 996; McCarthy et al., 200; Seo and Mendelsohn, 2007) yet lvestock plays a crucal role n poverty reducton and rural development n Afrca (Nn et al., 2007; Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008; IUCN, 200). Lvestock producton n Afrcan rural communtes largely depends on natural resources specfcally pasture and water (Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008; IUCN, 200). Clmate change wll therefore affect lvestock producton drectly, through mpacts on lvestock performance and ndrectly through mpacts on the envronment (Adams et al., 999; McCarthy et al., 200; Calvosa et al., 200). Aganst these drawbacks, lterature however suggest that lvestock could be mportant to the adaptaton strateges of poor people (Nn et al. 2007; IFAD, 2009) on a contnent (Afrca) that s a major vctm of, and a mnor contrbutor to, clmate change (IUCN, 200). Need therefore arses to understand determnants of lvestock selecton choces from a rural settng gven that for many Afrcans, copng wth clmate change nduced poverty, lvestock producton offers an opton for rebuldng a lvelhood (IUCN, 200). 2.. Objectves To assess small-scale rural farmers` preferred lvestock speces To estmate the determnants of small-scale rural farmers` lvestock speces selecton choces 3. Related lterature Ths secton revews the lterature presented on the mpacts of clmate change and adaptatons on smallscale lvestock producton. Broad concepts revewed here nclude ssues on the relatonshp between the lvestock sector and clmate change from an Afrcan perspectve. 3.. Clmate change, myth and facts from an Afrcan perspectve The Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC) (2007) defnes the term clmate change as "a change n the state of the clmate that can be dentfed by changes n the mean and/or the varablty of ts propertes, and that perssts for an extended perod of tme". Clmate change s therefore charactersed not 666 ISDS

4 only by ncreasng temperature, but also n a number of related clmatc phenomena such as, extreme tdal levels and fluctuatng total precptaton levels (IUCN, 200) Temperature fluctuatons Lterature suggests that across Afrca, temperature has ncreased by c durng the 20 th century wth current projectons estmatng potental warmng across Afrca to range from c to c per decade (Hulme et al. 200; IPPC, 200). Statstcs from Namba ndcated a trend towards ncreasng temperatures durng the latter half of the 20 th century wth average temperatures 0 c to.2 0 c warmer than they were at the begnnng of the century (Mdgley et al., 2005) Changes n ranfall Two contrastng vews wth regards to the mpact of global warmng on ranfall over the sub-saharan Afrca exst as follows; on one extreme, estmatons predct precptaton defct of up to 200mm whle on the other extreme, a wet trend s predcted (Hulme et al., 200; IPPC, 200) Afrca`s contrbuton to clmate change Clmate change s wdely accepted to be caused, at least n part, by the heat-trappng effects of ncreased concentratons of atmospherc greenhouse gases (GG) carbon doxde, methane and ntrous oxde (IUCN, 200). Snce 750 and the ndustral revoluton, global atmospherc concentratons of CO 2, methane and N 2O have ncreased from 270 ppm to approxmately 450 ppm as a result of human actvtes (Thornton et al., 2008). Man causes of Greenhouse Gases (GG) n Afrca are due to populaton growth, ncreased consumpton of fuel and grassland agrculture (Hokns and Del Prado, 2007). However, Afrca`s contrbuton to clmate change appears to be neglgble, producng only one sxth of the USA and 4% globally (IUCN, 200) Impact of clmate change on the Afrcan lvestock sector Small scale Afrcan lvestock sector depends on natural resources manly defned by the natural veld and water. Clmate change wll therefore affect lvestock producton both drectly through producton performances and ndrectly through mpacts on the natural envronment - veld and water sources (Calvosa et al., 200) Heat stress Parons et al. (200) have argued that hgh temperatures may reduce feed ntake, lower mlk producton, lead to energy defcts that may lower cow fertlty, ftness and longevty. Modelng work by Chase (2006) usng the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Proten System model suggested that the mantenance energy requrements of a dary cow weghng 635kg yeldng 36kg of mlk per day may be ncreased by 22% at 32 0 c ISDS 667

5 compared wth the energy requrements at 6 0 c. For the same temperature ncrease, Thornton et al. (2008) predcted a dry matter ntake decrease by 8% and mlk decrease by 32% Epdemologcal mpacts IUCN (200) noted that lvestock dseases wll change accordng to the ecosystem, dsease specfc transmsson dynamcs, susceptblty of the populatons at rsk and senstvty of the pathogen to temperature and humdty. Thornton et al. (2008) have argued that changng wnd patterns could nfluence the spread of certan pathogens and vectors (nfectve spores of anthrax and black leg, the wnd-borne peste des petts rumnants and dermatophloss). Lterature suggests that clmate change may nfluence major shfts n dsease dstrbuton and outbreaks (IUCN, 200). Suppresson of mmunty followng exposure to ultravolet B radaton (caused by ozone depleton) may ncrease susceptblty to dseases and more outbreaks (Bayls and Gtheko, 2006). Lvestock dsease vectors` dstrbuton and abundance may also change as a result of clmate change Clmate change and lvestock health World Health Organsaton (WHO) (996) suggested that changes n ecosystems drven by clmate change and other drvers could gve rse to new strans of speces capable of exposng hosts to novel pathogens and vectors that cause emergence of new dseases. Droughts may nduce overgrazng, mass mgraton and hgh concentraton around pastures and water ponts capable of promotng spread of nfectons of dseases lke Foot and Mouth Dsease (FMD) and peste de petts rumnants (IUCN, 200). On the other hand hgh rans may also promote prevalence of dermatopyhtoss, anthrax and foot rot (IUCN, 200) Effects of clmate change on forage qualty and quantty A number of possbltes have been forwarded n lterature wth regards to the effects of clmate change on forage qualty and quantty based on grassland productvty experments under elevated atmospherc CO 2 (Topp and Doyle, 996; Hokns, 2004). On one end, lterature suggests possblty of ncreased herbage growth, ncreased legume development and hgher concentraton of water-soluble carbohydrates and lower concentratons of N. On the other hand, lterature cautons that, greater ncdence of summer drought may offset the advantages n dry matter yeld that may arse, ncreased leachng due to ncreased wnter ranfall and reduced opportuntes for grazng and harvestng on wetter sols. Average bomass s generally expected to ncrease for warmer seasons grasses and to decrease for coolseason forbs and legumes as optmal grassland condtons shft from lower to hgher lattudes (Dxon et al., 2003). Major changes n rangeland speces dstrbuton, composton, patterns and bome dstrbuton are therefore expected where future CO 2 levels may favour C 3 plants over C 4 plants (Hanson et al., 993). Other studes suggest that ncrease n the legume content of swards may partally compensate for declne n proten content of the non-fxng speces. Also wth the declne of C 4 grasses that are less nutrtous than C 3 may compensate for the reduced proten content under elevated CO 2 (IPCC, 2007). 668 ISDS

6 3.0. Lterature nsghts Several deas are suggested from lterature wth regards to how clmate change affects lvestock producton n Afrca. Frstly, there s a consensus on the fact that clmate s changng although the drecton of change s not obvous. Secondly, lterature suggests that changng clmatc varables may sgnfcantly affect lvestock drectly and ndrectly. Small-scale rural lvestock producton may be heavly affected due to ther relance on natural pasture and water bodes. Ths may have a bearng on the lvelhoods of most rural Afrcan communtes who largely depend on lvestock. Lvestock adaptaton strateges are therefore crtcal for purposes of mtgatng adverse mpacts of clmate change. Lvestock speces selecton combnatons that tolerate avalable clmatc condtons supported by mnmum sustanable nputs may be an adaptaton opton for farmers worth supportng through publc polcy, research and nvestments. 4. Methodology In ths secton the paper presents the conceptual thnkng behnd usng lvestock speces selecton as an adaptaton strategy to clmate change as summarsed n Fgure. We assume that rural farmers are locked up n dfferent clmatc zones whch present dfferent lvestock producton challenges. Also rural farmers exhbt dfferent soco-economc status capable of nfluencng ther lvestock speces selecton choces. Wth that background rural farmers pursue varous lvelhood sources rangng from on-farm to non-farm actvtes. In ths framework we gnore the non-farm actvtes and pursue the on-farm actvtes whch could comprse of lvestock and crop producton for smplcty. We further gnore the crop sources and focus on the lvestock sources (Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008). Wth respect to lvestock producton we assume that farmer, ams to maxmse net ncome from lvestock producton by choosng specfc lvestock speces to keep. We further assume that the selecton of lvestock speces s therefore nspred by proft and utlty maxmsaton (lvelhood achevement) motves of the farmer. Clmatc and soco-economc factors may therefore condton the selecton choces of the farmer as llustrated n equaton ; π j = V(C j, S j)+ε(c j,s j)... where; C = vector of exogenous characterstcs of the communal area to nclude clmate, sol and vegetaton varables, S = vector of characterstcs of farmer whch could nclude soco-economc varables lke gender, educaton and extenson. V = the observable component and an error term ε, whch s unobservable to the researcher but could be known by the farmer. ISDS 669

7 Rural farmer () Avalable lvelhood adaptaton strateges Non-Farm Lvelhood strateges On-Farm Lvelhood Strateges Not pursued n ths framework Lvestock Producton Crop Producton Not pursued Opton A Speces a Opton B Speces b Opton C Speces c Assume farmer () chooses a lvestock speces combnaton (Opton B) that maxmse net ncome hopng to defne hs or her lvestock lvelhood strategy to complement the crop and non-farm lvelhood sources. Ths choce s however made subject to clmatc and soco-economc factors specfc to farmer, thus we assume that th farmer`s proft n choosng lvestock speces combnaton j n ths case Opton B (j=,2,..., J) s, π j = V(C j, S j)+ε(c j,s j). Where C s a vector of exogenous characterstcs of the communal area to nclude clmate, sol and vegetaton varables, S s a vector of characterstcs of farmer whch could nclude soco-economc varables lke gender, educaton and extenson. V therefore forms the observable component and an error term ε, whch s unobservable to the researcher but could be known by the farmer. Farmer would therefore choose opton B f t gves the hghest proft as follows; Z =(C,S), th farmer wll choose anmal j nstead of anmal k f and only π* (Z j) > π* (Z k) for k j Opton B Speces b Choce made subject to V(Cj,Sj) +ε(cj,sj): thus, the observable (V) and the unobservable (ε) components Speces X (.e. beef) Speces Y (.e. goats) Speces Z (e Chcken) Fgure. Conceptual Framework (Authors` opnon nspred by the Rcardan thnkng) 670 ISDS

8 Clmatc and soco-economc varables specfc to dfferent farmers wll therefore nfluence the lvestock speces selecton combnaton to be made. In the econometrc model that follows we try to relate observable clmate and soco-economc varables to lvestock selecton choces made by th farmer. Specfcally the model measures how farmers alter ther choce of anmals dependng on clmatc condtons (McFadden, 98; Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008) as well as soco-economc factors. Conceptually thnkng, when farmers select specfc lvestock speces to keep (.e. Opton B), ths may be n-lne wth avalable local clmatc condtons and ther current soco-economc status as nspred by ther prevous experences. We therefore conjecture that farmers` lvestock adaptaton capacty to clmate change can therefore be supported / enhanced through publc polcy, research and nvestments that promote farmers` own selected speces rather than prescrbng adaptaton strateges to farmers. 4.. Econometrc model specfcaton Econometrcally, the study proceeded as follows: Frstly, the study nvestgated the man lvestock speces from the study area. These were revealed through reported lvestock speces owned by the respondents. The followng nne lvestock speces were deemed to be the man lvestock from the study area; donkeys (9.4%), brolers (4.39%), DPC (4.2%), beef (3.20%) and sheep (2.9%), pgs (.92%), layers (9.85%), ducks (2.82%) and goats (2.%). Secondly, the study estmated the determnants of lvestock speces selecton choces made by farmers. Consderng the nne lvestock speces from the study area, nne bnary logstc regresson equatons were formulated to assess the correlates of each speces creatng nne dependent varables. Based on ths formulaton, Y was assumed to be a dchotomous dependent varable, takng the value of, when the household chooses a speces n queston and 0 otherwse. The typcal bnary logstc regresson was therefore formulated as follows: Household selecton of lvestock speces was based on an assumed underlyng utlty functon of attanng secure lvelhoods sources and proft maxmsaton from the selected lvestock speces. Accordngly, the observed lvestock speces owned by th farmer was assumed to generate more utlty and proft than the non selected ones as condtoned by local clmate and socal-economc factors specfc to the farmer. Assumng to be a random varable representng a lvestock speces selecton choce by th farmer, the choce s assumed to be condtoned by a number of attrbutes to nclude clmate, soco-economc and other varables say X. The bnary logstc regresson model, as specfed n equatons to 5, followng an approach by Kdane et al. (2005), was used to relate observable clmate and soco-economc varables to lvestock selecton choces made by th farmer. E k n jj... () ISDS 67

9 , j = s the probablty of household () ownng lvestock speces (j) = s the observed lvestock speces owned by household () = are the factors determnng lvestock speces selecton choces for households and j = stands for parameters to be estmated. By denotng k n j selecton choce of household () as: j as, equaton () can be wrtten to gve the probablty of lvestock speces... (2) From equaton (2) the probablty of a household ownng lvestock speces (j) s gven by whch gves equaton (3) as follows;... (3) (4); Accordng to Kdane et al. (2005) the odds rato would therefore be, [.e.... (4) / ] as gven by equaton Ln The natural logarthm of equaton (4) gves rse to equaton (5); k n j j... (5) 4.2. Data and emprcal specfcatons of model varables The study used cross-sectonal survey data from Nyanden, Amatole and Chrs Han dstrcts. These were purposvely chosen to accommodate agro-ecologcal zones, ntensty of lvestock farmng actvtes, average annual ranfall and household characterstcs (Mandlen and Anm, 20). For the econometrc analyss the paper estmated how clmate change may affect lvestock speces rural South Afrca Eastern Cape famers choose to own. We therefore tested whether clmate alters speces choce by rural farmers. The choce of explanatory varables was dctated by theoretcal behavoural hypothess, emprcal lterature and data avalablty. 672 ISDS

10 4.3. Clmate explanatory varables Seasonal clmate varables used n ths study were lmted to precptaton and temperature. Lvestock choce analyss by Seo and Mendelsohn (2006) suggested that choce of beef cattle had a hll-shaped probablty response to summer temperature assocated wth a U-shaped response n wnter for beef and sheep and a hll-shaped response for dary cattle and goats. Later on, Seo and Mandelsohn (2007) noted that, unform warmng causes the probablty of choosng beef to fall and the probablty of choosng sheep to rse especally across the Sahel. Further, wth respect to ncreasng precptaton, Seo and Mandelsohn (2007) noted a declnng probablty of choosng beef cattle, dary cattle and sheep and an ncreasng probablty of choosng goats and chckens. Wth respect to soco-economc factors, the study explored the followng explanatory varables; household head gender, age, martal status, household sze, access to extenson and educaton. Table. Defnton of varables to be used n emprcal analyss Varable Defnton Values/ measure Expected sgn. Wnter temp Wnter temperature 0c +/- 2. Summer temp Summer temperature 0c +/- 3. Summer precp Summer precptaton mm +/- 4. HH Gender Household Head Gender 2 = Male: = Female +/- 5. HH Age Household Head Age No. of years +/- 6. HH Sze Household head Sze No. of members +/- 7. Extenson Access to Extenson = Yes: 0 = No + 8. Educaton Household Head Educaton Hghest level of educaton +/- 9. Martal status Martal status of household head = sngle: 2=marred: 3=dvorced: 4= wdowed - Notes: Due to heteroscedastcty and multcollnearty wth cross-sectonal data we followed an approach by Hassan and Nhemachena (2008) of combnng sprng wth wnter season and fall wth summer season. 5. Results and dscusson Table 2 presents the basc sample statstcs. The followng characterstcs were postvely skewed: summer temperature, gender, martal status, educaton, household sze and all lvestock speces. Wnter temperature, summer precptaton, age and extenson were negatvely skewed. ISDS 673

11 Wn temp Summer temp Summer precp Age Gender Martal Status Educ Extenson HHS Beef Sheep Pgs DPC Brolers Layers Ducks Donkeys Internatonal Journal of Development and Sustanablty Vol.2 No.2 (203): Table 2. Basc sample statstcs N Mean Medan Std. Devaton Skewness Mnmum Maxmum Key: HHS Household Sze; DPC Dual Purpose Chcken (Tradtonal chcken) A total of respondents were consdered for ths study wth a mean household-head age of 57 years. On average, respondents were educated up to grade 6 wth a medan household sze of 6. Basc sample statstcs also ndcated that access to extenson servces on average was good. Mnmum average annual summer ranfall was 453mm and a maxmum of 05mm. Mnmum average wnter temperature was 3 0 c 674 ISDS

12 wth a maxmum of 9 0 c. The study area experenced hot summer temperatures wth an average mnmum of 25 0 c and a maxmum of 29 0 c. 5.. Lvestock speces selecton choces Ths secton focuses on reported lvestock speces selecton choces made by respondents from the study area. Fgure 2, summares the descrptve results of lvestock speces selecton choces as reported by households from the study area beef 8.00 ducks 6.00 sheep donkey goat 0.00 Layers pg Broler DPC Fgure 2. Lvestock speces selecton choces Nne lvestock speces [beef, sheep, goat, pg, dual purpose chcken (DPC), broler, layer, duck and donkey] were common from the study area. Results ndcate that the commonly preferred lvestock speces from the study area were; donkeys (9.4%), brolers (4.39%), DPC (4.2%) and beef (3.20%). Ths was followed ISDS 675

13 [.002]** -.00 [.042]*.00 [.273] [.007]** -.2 [.045]*.89 [.009]** [.00]** [.030]* [.402].030 [.604] [.003]** [.004]** 26.9 [.000] 3.88 [.000] [.000] [.000] [.02] 4.39 [.02] [.005] [.000] 9.02 [.000] Beef Sheep Goat Pgs DPC Brolers Layers Donkeys Duck Internatonal Journal of Development and Sustanablty Vol.2 No.2 (203): by the followng speces; sheep (2.9%), pgs (.92%) and layers (9.85%). Although the followng lvestock speces were reported; ducks (2.82%) and goats (2.%), results ndcate that they were not that domnant as shown n Fgure 2. In the followng secton the paper relates farmers` lvestock speces selecton choces to changes n clmate Econometrc fndngs Econometrcally the paper estmated the determnants of farmers` lvestock speces selecton choces specfcally n relaton to clmate change. Nne lvestock speces were suggested as common by the majorty of the respondents as shown n Fgure 2. Consderng the man nne lvestock speces, nne bnary logstc regresson equatons were formulated to assess the determnants of each lvestock spece selecton choce. Wth regards to the model ft, the Lemeshow Goodness-of-Ft test statstcs for the overall ft of the models showed that the explanatory varables were jontly sgnfcant n explanng each of the dependent varables at an acceptable level. The followng Nagelkerke R 2 were obtaned 0.75, 0.84, 0.55, 0.68, 0.60, 0.58, 0.8, 0.66 and 0.78, thus ndcatng that more of the varaton was explaned by the models wth overall predcton percentages of 86%, 87.%, 93%, 8.8%, 78.3%, 77.2%, 84.9%, 73.8% and 94%, respectvely, as shown n Table 3. Table 3. Determnants of lvestock speces selecton choces Lvestock Speces Selecton Choces Varables Constant β 0. Wntemp β 2. Summtemp β 2 3. Summprep β ISDS

14 [.002]**.068 [.009]**.06 [.06].079 [.00]**.024 [.260] [.25] [.802].045 [.024]*.008 [.887].087 [.625].239 [.206].038 [.875] -.07 [.98].094 [.548].55 [.323].76 [.342].068 [.634].007 [.98].060 [.005]** [.750] [.083] [.72] -.02 [.246] -.02 [.306] [.838].05 [.250] [.454] [.732] -.86 [.059] -.08 [.227].87 [.003]** [.370].96 [.096].008 [.82].007 [.262] -.00 [.239].00 [.854].007 [.48].000 [.992] [.489].0 [.024]*.009 [.373] -.75 [.257] [.039]* [.673].034 [.86] [.09] -.62 [.239] [.039]* [.373] Internatonal Journal of Development and Sustanablty Vol.2 No.2 (203): Gender β 4 5. Age β 5 6. MartalSta β 6 7. Educa β 7 8. Extenson β 8 9. HHSze β 9 Ch-Square (df = 9) (-2) Log Lkelhood Accuracy of predcton (Overall) (%) Nagelkerke R 2 Notes: ** and * ndcates sgnfcance at 0.0 and 0.05 probablty level respectvely; p-value n [] brackets ISDS 677

15 5.3. Clmatc varables As temperature ncreases n general (summer/wnter) the lkelhood of rural farmers to choose the followng lvestock speces decrease: beef, sheep, pgs and brolers. Smlar observatons were noted by Seo and Mendelsohn (2008) wth respect to beef and chcken. A fallng response for sheep to ncrease n temperature was reported by Kabubo-Marara (2008) based on a study from Kenya. Regardng the followng speces; goats, DPC, layers, donkeys and ducks, as temperatures ncrease the probablty of rural farmers to choose them ncreases. Kabubo-Marara (2008) reported smlar observatons specfcally for goats and chcken. Ths movement suggest that, as temperature ncreases, wthn the lvestock portfolo, rural farmers swtch from temperate anmals (pgs, sheep) to heat tolerant anmals (donkeys, DPC). As precptaton ncrease, results ndcate that the probablty of rural farmers to choose the followng lvestock speces decrease: sheep, pgs, brolers and ducks. Seo and Mendelsohn (2008) have reported smlar observatons wth respect to sheep. Contrary, as precptaton ncreases, results show that the lkelhood of rural farmers to choose the followng speces ncrease: beef, goats, DPC and donkeys. Seo and Mendelsohn (2008) forwarded smlar observatons wth respect to goats and chcken. The observed speces swtchng suggest that, as precptaton ncreases, there s a possblty of an ntra-lvestock portfolo swtchng from water senstve speces (sheep) to hgh water tolerant speces (beef and goats). The next secton relates soco-economc varables to clmate varables n a matrx form as presented n Fgure 3. Fgure 3 summares farmers` preferred lvestock selecton choces under dfferent clmate horzons. Fgure 3 creates two horzons as follows; (a) the stable clmate horzon: whch presents a scenaro where clmate s assumed to be stable. Wthn ths horzon we further assume that all the reported nne lvestock speces from the study area would be adaptable and avalable for selecton cum ownershp by local resdents. (b) The changng (unstable) clmate horzon: whch presents a scenaro where temperatures and precptaton are ncreasng. In ths horzon only a few lvestock speces from the reported nne are adaptable and avalable for selecton cum ownershp by local resdents. The observed lvestock speces avalable n ths horzon are based on temperature and precptaton regresson estmates from Table 3. Usng sgnfcant soco-economc predctor varables from Table 3, Fgure 3 relates preferred lvestock selecton combnatons of households under the stable and changng clmate horzons. The mplct objectve was to understand the avalable and adaptable lvestock speces for rural poor lvestock farmers as temperature and precptaton ncreases. The negatve correlaton between gender and the followng lvestock speces; sheep, layers and donkeys suggest that as temperature ncreases women`s preference would be lmted to layers and donkeys. However wth ncreasng precptaton layers may not be adaptable, further reducng the avalable optons to donkeys only. Age was postvely related to ownershp of donkeys (Table 3). Wth that background, Fgure 3 suggests that as clmate change (changes n temperature and precptaton) the avalable and adaptable lvestock speces for older household heads may be donkeys. Prevous studes suggest a postve correlaton between age and ownershp of sheep possblty due to low labour requrements Kabubo-Marara (2008). Respondents from the study area attrbuted the observed assocaton to low labour and nput requrements for keepng donkeys. 678 ISDS

16 Farmers` lvestock selecton choce s n response to ncrease n precptaton Farmers` lvestock selecton choce s n response to ncrease n temperature Farmers` lvestock selecton choce s under stable clmate Farmers` lvestock selecton choce s under stable clmate Internatonal Journal of Development and Sustanablty Vol.2 No.2 (203): Unstable Clmate T P T P T P T P T P Donkeys DPC Layers Goats Donkeys DPC Goats Ducks Beef Donkeys Donkeys DPC DPC Layers Layers Goats Goats Ducks Ducks Beef Beef Brolers Brolers Pgs Pgs Sheep Sheep Women Aged household Wdowed & dvorced Educated Households Large HHS Gender Age M Status Educaton HH Sze (-ve correlaton) (+ve Correlaton) (+ve correlaton) (+ve correlaton) (+ve correlaton) Fgure 3. Farmers` lvestock selecton choces n response to clmate change wth respect to ther soco-economc status ISDS 679

17 Key: : Avalable and preferred lvestock speces under a stable clmate : Adaptable and preferred lvestock speces under ncreasng precptaton : Adaptable and preferred lvestock speces under ncreasng temperature P T The postve correlaton between martal status and the followng speces; DCP, brolers and layers suggest that as temperature and precptaton ncrease, the preferred and adaptable lvestock speces avalable for the wndowed and dvorced households may be DPC. Layers may be a preferred and avalable opton for ths group at hgher temperature but may fal to cope wth hgher precptaton. Educaton was postvely related to beef and pgs as shown n Table 3. Results suggest that as households are more educated they may be assocated wth cash lvestock (beef, pgs). As precptaton ncreases Fgure 3 suggests that the preferred and adaptable lvestock speces avalable for ths group may be beef whch may fal to adapt as temperature ncreases. Kabubo-Marara (2008) has observed a negatve assocaton between educaton and ownershp of sheep and goats, earler on argung that educaton normally broadens alternatve ncome earnng opportuntes (Kabubo-Marara 2007). Lastly household sze was postvely related to beef, sheep, pgs and donkeys as shown n Table 3. As temperature and precptaton ncrease, Fgure 3 suggests that the preferred and adaptable lvestock speces avalable for larger households may be donkeys. Beef may be avalable as a preferred opton under hgher precptaton but as temperature ncreases they may fal to adapt Impled message Several messages emerge from the observed lvestock selecton optons made by rural farmers. Frstly, as clmate changes (ncrease n temperature and precptaton) donkeys and dual purpose chcken may be the only adaptable and preferred speces avalable to rural farmers n dfferent socal economc settngs. Ths scenaro suggests that wth warmng and hgh precptaton, swtchng from crops to lvestock may be a possble adaptaton pathway for rural farmers (Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008) but faced wth several lmtatons. Avalable adaptaton lvestock speces (donkeys and DPC) though necessary may not be suffcent to address food securty status of rural farmers. We therefore cauton earler studes that suggest that, for small farmers lvestock wll provde some protecton from effects of warmng as crops becomes less desrable further argung that from a portfolo perspectve ths s excellent news for small Afrcan farmers over the next century (Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008). Secondly, Fgure 3 suggests that goats are potental untapped speces that are avalable and adaptable to both hgh temperature and precptaton. However Fgure 2 suggests that they are not commonly owned from the study area. Ducks may also be possble adaptaton speces for they tolerate hgher temperatures although senstve to hgher precptaton. Unfortunately they are not also a common speces from the study area. The horzon for future lvestock or mproved breeds should explore possble barrers lmtng rural 680 ISDS

18 farmers from ownng such speces, and breedng efforts to ncrease ther tolerance to harsh clmatc condtons. Thrdly, beef presents a potental adaptaton choce but hghly lmted by hgher temperatures. Layers also present a potental adaptaton opton but hghly lmted by hgher precptaton. The horzon for future lvestock or mproved breeds should consder breedng efforts to ncrease tolerance to hgher temperatures for the former (beef) and hgher precptaton for the latter (layers). Lastly, women, aged, wdowed and dvorced household heads are more lkely to keep food securty lvestock speces typcally charactersed by small rumnants and avs speces than educated and larger households who are more lkely to focus on large rumnants manly for cash generaton. 6. Concluson The paper examned soco-economc and clmate senstvty of small scale rural lvestock management n the Eastern Cape provnce of South Afrca. The study found that donkeys, brolers, dual purpose chcken, beef and sheep were the domnant lvestock speces owned by a majorty of households. Pgs, layers, ducks and goats were also common from the study area although not that domnant. Clmate estmates ndcate that as temperature ncreases the probablty of rural farmers to choose the followng lvestock speces decreases: beef, sheep, pgs and brolers whle the probablty of choosng the followng speces ncreases; goats, DPC, layers, donkeys and ducks. As precptaton ncrease results ndcate that the probablty of rural farmers to choose the followng lvestock speces decrease: sheep, pgs, brolers and ducks whle the probablty of choosng the followng anmals ncrease: beef, goats, DPC and donkeys. Soco-economc estmates ndcate that lvestock selecton choces are condtoned by gender, age, martal status, educaton and household sze. The paper therefore concludes that as clmate change, lvestock swtchng becomes a copng strategy for rural small-scale lvestock farmers but faced wth several lmtatons as follows; (a) avalable adaptaton lvestock speces (donkeys and DPC) may fal to address food securty status of rural farmers, (b) avalable adaptaton speces may not be the preferred choces of rural farmers (goats and ducks) and (c) preferred choces (layers and beef) may not be combatable wth both extreme changes n temperature and precptaton. 6.. Polcy nsghts A new horzon of future lvestock speces or mprovements on current breeds adaptable to harsh clmatc condtons s necessary to ncrease the selecton pool for rural small-scale lvestock farmers. Breedng efforts for layers and ducks may need to target tolerance for hgher precptaton whle tolerance for hgher temperatures may be necessary for beef. Incorporatng local ndgenous breeds lke the Ngun breed may be a sustanable breedng programme. ISDS 68

19 Awareness campagns across varous communtes may be necessary towards understandng socoeconomc factors that condton speces selecton combnatons as well as possble barrers lmtng rural farmers from selecton of specfc lvestock speces (goats, ducks). The male and young household heads are more lkely to face lmted preferred lvestock selecton choces than ther counterparts as clmate change. Ths s also true for the educated households who seem to specalse n cash lvestock speces (pgs and beef) whch are very senstve to clmate change. In prescrbng lvestock adaptaton speces to farmers, mplementers should be guded not only by compatblty of speces to extreme clmate changes but also by soco-economc status of households, for lvestock selecton choces cum ownershp s also condtoned by soco-economc factors. Polces, nvestments and breedng efforts targetng small rumnants and avs speces are more lkely to beneft rural communtes n the followng soco-economc classes; women, old aged, wndowed and dvorced households. Interventons targetng large rumnants may also beneft communtes domnated by educated and larger households. Acknowledgement We acknowledge Govern Mbek Research Development Centre (GMRDC) for fnancng ths study. References Adams, R., McCarl, B., Segerson, K., Rosenzweg, C., Bryant, K., Dxon, B., Conner, R., Evenson, R. and Ojma, D. (999), The economc effects of clmate change on US agrculture, n Mendelsohn, R. and Neumann, J. (Ed.), The Impact of Clmate Change on the Unted States Economy, Cambrdge Unversty Press, Cambrdge, UK. Bayls, N. and Gtheko, A.K. (2006), The effects of clmate change on nfectous dseases of anmals. T7.3. Foresght. Infectous dseases: preparng for the future. Offce of Scence and Innovaton. avalable from: Infectous%20Dseases/t7_3.pdf. (accessed June 202). Brown, A.G. (Ed.) (2003), The lvestock revoluton: a pathway from poverty? Proceedngs of a conference held at the ATSE Crawford Fund, Parlament House, Canberra. (Canberra: ATSE Crawford Fund). Calvosa, C., Chuluunbaatar, D. and Fara, K. (200), Lvestock and Clmate Change, Lvestock Thematc Papers, avalable from: (accessed on June 202). Catley, A. (2008), The growng demand for lvestock. Wll polcy and nsttutonal changes beneft poor people?, ID2 Insghts, 72, pp. -2. Chase, L.E. (2006), Clmate change mpacts on dary cattle. Fact sheet, Clmate Change and Agrculture: Promotng Practcal and Proftable Responses, avalable from: pdfs/factsheets/iii.3cattle.pdf. (accessed on June 202). Delgado, C. (2003), Rsng Consumpton of Meat and Mlk n Developng Countres Has Created a New Food Revoluton, Journal of Nutrton, Vol. 33, pp. 3907S-390S. 682 ISDS

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