Service Operations Report Crop Yield and Vegetation Monitoring

Transcription

1 GMFS Global Monitoring for Food Security Earth Watch GMES Services Element (GSE) ESA ESRIN/Contract No /05/I-LG To provide earth observation based services and encourage partnerships in monitoring Global Food Security and related environmental processes, by concerting efforts to bring data and information providers together, in order to assist stakeholders, nations and international organizations to better implement their policies towards sustainable development Service Operations Report Crop Yield and Vegetation Monitoring Deliverable Reference: GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_V1.0 Author(s): Sven Gilliams, Antoine Royer, Djaby Bakary Version: 2.2 Date: 10 February

2 Signatures Author(s) : Sven Gilliams, VITO Antoine Royer, VITO Djaby Bakary, Ulg Reviewer(s) : Antoine Royer, VITO Approver(s) : Lieven Bydekerke, VITO Issuing authority : VITO Change Record Release Date Pages Description of Change Editor(s)/Reviewers(s) First version S. Gilliams, Antoine Royer (VITO), Djaby Bakari (ULG) Updated According to RIDs received on S. Gilliams, Antoine Royer (VITO), Djaby Bakari (ULG) Updated according to RIDs received on S. Gilliams (VITO) Applicable Documents [Contract] ESRIN Contract Nr. C07_ULG_AGRHYMET Service Level Agreement with AGRHYMET C07_VITO_CSE Service Level Agreement with CSE C07_VITO_INAM Service Level Agreement with INAM MoU_VITO_FAO Memorandum of Understanding with FAO MoU_VITO_DRMFSS Memorandum of Understanding with DRMFSS C07_VITO_RCMRD Service Level Agreement with RCMRD GMFS3_S05_V2.1 Service portfolio specification GMFS3_C06_CYVM_v1.2 Service validation Report Crop Yield and Vegetation Monitoring GMFS3_U07_CYVM_v1.1 Service utility report Crop Yield and Vegetation Monitoring GMFS3_C17_Training Review_v1.2 GMFS3_Training Review documents GMFS3_S6_CYVM_v2.2_annex2_bulletin.pdf DRMFSS bulletin displaying GMFS products GMFS3_S6_CYVM_v2.2_annex3_bulletin.pdf First GMFS AGRHYMET Bulletin GMFS3_S6_CYVM_v2.2_annex4_bulletin.pdf Second GMFS AGRHYMET Bulletin GMFS3_S6_CYVM_v2.2_annex5_bulletin.pdf Third GMFS AGRHYMET Bulletin GMFS3_S6_CYVM_v2.2_annex6_bulletin.pdf First GMFS CSE Bulletin GMFS3_S6_CYVM_v2.2_annex7_bulletin.pdf Second GMFS CSE Bulletin GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 2 of 32

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY GMFS (Global Monitoring for Food Security) is a GMES Service Element project, part of the ESA contribution to the EU / ESA GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) Programme. It aims to establish an operational service for monitoring agriculture in support of Food Security Monitoring to serve policy makers and operational users. The GMFS project started in March 2003 and will end in The current work plan ( ) focuses primarily on sustainability of the delivered services. This report lists all activities executed by the partners VITO and ULG for Crop Yield and Vegetation Monitoring Service (CYVM) of the Early Warning Service (EWS) of GMFS3 for the period December 2010 to November The main products to deliver are fapar qualitative indicators and crop yield and biomass estimates. The qualitative indicators are distributed to 8 users at international (FAO, WFP), regional (AGRHYMET, RCMRD) and national levels (Senegal, Niger, Ethiopia, Mozambique). The quantitative estimates are made over 3 countries: Senegal, Niger, Ethiopia. These countries are the focal countries for CYVM. The operational ten day fapar is delivered in near real time (NRT) with a 2-3 day time delay via FTP and mail. A quick look of the images is also placed on the GMFS homepage ( The complete archive from ESA of MERIS data is available. However in 2011 ESA has released an reprocessed version of the archive and this updated archive is currently being downloaded and processed at VITO. Throughout the past year a lot of effort was put on training and capacity building at the user site, ensuring that users understand and use the new software and products. This has resulted in the first integration of GMFS products in the by DRMFSS produced Early Warning Analysis bulletin and in several joint GMFS-AGRHYMET bulletin throughout the 2011 growing season in Niger. These Niger Bulletin were discussed in detail and as such AGRHYMET has expressed the need to apply the methodology across the whole CILLS region. GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 3 of 32

4 LIST OF ACRONYMS AGRHYMET Application en Agrométéorologie et Hydrologie Opérationelle CFSAM Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission CSE Centre Suivi Ecologique, Dakar Senegal CY Crop Yield CYVM DMP Dry Matter Productivity DRMFSS Disaster Risk management for Food Security Sector ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts EO Earth Observation ESA European Space Agency EWS Early Warning Service FAO Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations FAO/NRL FAO Natural Resources and Environment- Land and Water Division fapar Fraction of Absorber Photosynthetically Active Radiation FEWS Famine Early Warning System FEWS-NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network GMFS Global Monitoring for Food Security GMES Global Monitoring for Environment and Security GSE GMES Service Element JRC Joint Research Institute INAM National Meteorological Institute of Mozambique LEAP Livelihood Early Assessment, Protection software LTA Long Term Average MERIS Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer Instrument MSG Meteosat Second Generation NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index PAR Photosynthetic Active Radiation RCMRD Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development RFE Rainfal Estimates RR Reduced Resolution SPIRITS Software for the Processing and Interpretation of Remotely sensed Image Time Series TIGER CBF ESA s TIGER Capacity Building Facility Project VGT Vegetation (sensor on board SPOT 4/5) VPI Vegetation Productivity Indicator WFP World Food Programme GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 4 of 32

5 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...3 LIST OF ACRONYMS...4 INTRODUCTION SERVICES AGREED IN THE SLA SERVICES SERVICES DELIVERED AND SERVICES AGREED IN THE SLA DATA ACQUISITIONS & PROCUREMENTS DELIVERY MECHANISM TOOLS ETHIOPIA AND MOZAMBIQUE SERVICE AGHRYMET/ CSE SERVICES RCMRD / DDS SERVICE FAO SERVICE ANOMALIES AND PROBLEMS SLA s General Service: Archived Data Ethiopia Service AGRHYMET/CSE services CUSTOMER COMPLAINTS & RESOLUTION EXTERNAL & COMMON INFRASTRUCTURE STANDARDS ANNEX I U8 DOCUMENTS ANNEX II DRMFSS BULLETIN ANNEX III AGRHYMET BULLETIN I ANNEX IV AGRHYMET BULLETIN II ANNEX V AGRHYMET BULLETIN III ANNEX VI CSE BULLETIN GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 5 of 32

6 INTRODUCTION GMFS (Global Monitoring for Food Security) is a Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) Service Element (GSE) project, part of the ESA contribution to the EU / ESA GMES Programme. It aims to establish an operational service for Crop Monitoring in support of Food Security Monitoring to serve policy makers and operational users. It started In 2003 as part of Stage 1 of the ESA Earth watch GMES services Element Service Consolidation Actions, and was continued in October 2005 as part of the Stage 2 of the ESA Earth watch GMES services Element Scaling Up Consolidated GMES Services. The project has now entered the third stage of the ESA Earth watch GMES service Element Food Security Information Services Extension and Transfer The current work plan ( ) focuses primarily on sustainability of the delivered services. The aim of the document is to give a complete report on the (CYVM) service for the period from December 2010-November The considered service consists of activities derived from the use of MERIS RR Vegetation Indicators, the Qualitative Analysis protocols and the Crop Yield and Biomass Forecasting. The CYVM services are delivered to international users (FAO/WFP), regional users/partners in Africa (RCMRD, AGRHYMET), and to national users in the CYVM focal countries, Senegal, Ethiopia and Mozambique (CSE, DRMFSS and INAM) The is a continuous service which delivers 10-daily indicators as below: Service Phase Deliverable Delivery delay after last period day Start date from EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_S10 +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_dif_S10_v1 +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10 +5days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_sim_S10_v1 +5days Sep-10 In addition to these services the Regional Centres (AGHRYMET and RCMRD) benefit also from the support for the ESA DDS system. For all these services and products a number of dedicated trainings session are organised. The Chapters 1 4 give an overview of the services delivered with respect to what was agreed in the SLA, standards, delivery mechanisms, data acquisitions and infrastructure. Service acceptance reports are provided in Annex of this document GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 6 of 32

7 1. SERVICES AGREED IN THE SLA The products and services agreed with the respective users for the 2011 service period are listed below [note that only those products are listed which are applicable to the Crop Yield and Vegetation Monitoring, the specific services per country are considered in the specific country operations reports]. For FAO: Service Service Phase Deliverable Area Delivery delay after last period day Service start date EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_S10 W/E/S Africa +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_dif_S10_v1 W/E/S Africa +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10_v1 W/E/S Africa +5days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_sim_S10_v1 W/E/S Africa +5days Sep-10 updated EWS indicator A Scientific report on the Crop yield models extension to Sorghum and Maize [ULG] Niger/Senegal Positive PoSD Nov-10 updated EWS indicator A Report on Livestock EWS needs in Ethiopia and technical specifications for an adapted Livestock EWS [ULG] Ethiopia Positive PoSD Nov-10 For RCMRD: Service Service Phase Deliverable Area Delivery delay after last period day Start date from EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_S10 E-Africa +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_dif_S10_v1 E-Africa +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10_v1 E-Africa +5days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_sim_S10_v1 E-Africa +5days Sep-10 Livestock/biomass EWS indicator A E-Africa For AGRHYMET: Service Service Phase Deliverable Area Delivery delay after last period day Service start date EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_S10 W/E/S Africa +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_dif_S10_v1 W/E/S Africa +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10_v1 W/E/S Africa +5days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_sim_S10_v1 W/E/S Africa +5days Sep-10 updated EWS indicator A Scientific report on the Crop yield models extension to Sorghum and Maize[ULG] Niger/Senegal Positive PoSD Nov-10 GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 7 of 32

8 For CSE, Senegal: Service Service Phase Deliverable Area Delivery delay after last period day Service start date EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_S10 W- Africa +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_dif_S10_v1 W- Africa +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10 W- Africa +5days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_sim_S10_v1 W- Africa +5days Sep-10 updated EWS indicator updated EWS indicator A A Scientific report on the Crop yield models extension to Sorghum and Maize[ULG] Report on Livestock EWS needs in Ethiopia and technical specifications for an adapted Livestock EWS Niger/Senegal Ethiopia For INAM / MINAG, Mozambique: Service Positive PoSD Positive PoSD Service Phase Deliverable Area Delivery delay after last period day Nov-10 Nov-10 Service start date EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_S10 S Africa +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_dif_S10_v1 S Africa +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10 S Africa +5days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_sim_S10_v1 S Africa +5days Sep-10 Capacity building A Training Session EWS/ RS Mozambique March-11 For DRMFSS, Ethiopia: Service Service Phase Deliverable Area Delivery delay after last period day Start date from EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_S10 Ethiopia +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_dif_S10_v1 Ethiopia +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10 Ethiopia +5days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_sim_S10_v1 Ethiopia +5days Sep-10 Livestock/biomass EWS indicator A Ethiopia Training Session Capacity building A Training Session EWS/Biomass/RS Ethiopia Feb-11 Capacity building A Training Session EWS/Biomass/RS Ethiopia Jan-12 GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 8 of 32

9 Figure 1: illustrates the geographic bounding boxes for the Early Warning service delivered to the users. In addition to the above Regional ROIs, GMFS will provide the data country specific for Senegal, Ethiopia and Mozambique. 2. SERVICES The effort deployed by GMFS/CYVM are based upon three pillars: - Indicators delivery in due time at the right format, - Make available an existing free tool that can perform the CYVM analysis, - Assure the training and know how transfer to the users. Figure 2: Three pillars of the GMFS CYVM service GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 9 of 32

10 2.1. Services delivered and services agreed in the SLA The SLAs under consideration for this report are: - SLA with FAO (MoU): MoU_VITO_FAO - SLA with RCMRD:C7_VITO_RCMRD - SLA with AGHRYMET: C7_ULG_Agrhymet - SLA with CSE: C7_VITO_CSE - SLA with DRMFSS(MoU): MoU_VITO_DRMFSS - SLA with INAM: C7_VITO_INAM These SLAs have the following services and products in common: Service Phase Deliverable Delivery delay after last period day Start date from EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_S10 +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_dif_S10_v1 +3days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10 +5days Sep-10 EWS indicator A MERIS_RR_fAPAR_sim_S10_v1 +5days Sep-10 For Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia and based upon the above SLA two reports were foreseen - Scientific report on the Crop yield models extension to Sorghum and Maize[ULG] - Report on Livestock EWS needs in Ethiopia and technical specifications for an adapted Livestock EWS. The delivery of these two reports was postponed to January 2012 for the crop yield analysis. The report on the livestock EWS needs will be produced after the mission in Ethiopia planned in February Up to now only data from Niger were consolidated during the December training. Despite what is mentioned in the SLA s Cluster and similarity products (MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10, MERIS_RR_fAPAR_sim_S10) are currently not produced on 10 daily basis. These datasets were distributed and analysed during the different training sessions in the specific countries or at the specific request of users (e.g. CSE and AGRHYMET) Data acquisitions & procurements The following data were used: - MERIS Reduced Resolution (RR) (2002-current), - SPOT VGT 1998-current, - Rainfall Estimate from FEWS NET and TAMSAT. The MERIS RR data were received directly from the ftp download of ESA servers at Frascati and Kiruna, DDS station at VITO is used as backup. ESA is responsible for the MERIS RR data quality, extracting of fapar and compositing in 10 daily images is done by VITO. A data consistency control is made regularly. Any problem is reported back to ESA and a temporary back up solution can be proposed if the interruption lasts too long. SPOT VGT were directly produced at VITO and were mainly required for the crop yield forecast model that needed longer time series than MERIS to calculate significant results. Rainfall estimates were downloaded from FEWS NET for RFE FEWS. GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 10 of 32

11 2.3. Delivery Mechanism The distribution of the fapar data was completely automated. Once the raw segments are received from the data provider (ESA) the processing chain is automatically activated and the extraction of the fapar Indicator starts (MERIS_RR_fAPAR_S10). The processing chain went through some changes in order to improve the provision of the fapar images and to calculate the difference products based upon MERIS-RR fapar. Currently these difference images (MERIS_RR_fAPAR_dif_S10_v1), the similarity images (MERIS_RR_fAPAR_sim_S10_v1) and thus the cluster (MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10_v1) are based upon the complete historical archive. The currently used historical archive is based upon images starting in 2002 and ending in In the course of 2011 ESA has put online a reprocessed and improved version of this archive. This data is being downloaded and processed at VITO in order to improve our historical archive. Using this new and improved data set will influence the currently existing difference indicators. As such all the GMFS MERIS data will need to be reprocessed once the updated archive has been downloaded and processed (currently ongoing). Further processing and distribution to the users is similar to the first year of GMFS3. In the fapar and difference images, clouds, missing data and deserts are masked out ( desert mask is based upon the GLC2000 desert class). Once completed the data is uploaded to the various users directories and a quick look is placed upon the GMFS website. This quick look is to allow a quick inspection of the product. The processing chain and technical specifications are documented in the GMFS3_S5 Service portfolio Specifications document_v2.1. A master database is maintained of the images on the VITO local servers, as part of the VITO CVB (Centre for Image Processing) infrastructure. This is done for all users, and specific to their region and specifications. Standard data is provided in geographic lat/long, however upon request of CSE, the standard projection has been adapted to UTM 28N to meet the requirements of CSE. 4 main delivery mechanisms have been used: - (for the fapar Quick look product); - ftp site (ftp://ftp.gmfs.info) for download; - ESA DDS system; - direct hand over of the archive during training sessions. The time delay for production of the 10 daily composites is 2 days. The MERIS fapar data per region are delivered in geographic WGS-84 coordinates according to 4 main windows. Cluster and similarity products (MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10, MERIS_RR_fAPAR_sim_S10) are not produced on 10 daily basis. This data is distributed and discussed during the different training session in the specific countries or distributed at the specific request of the users Tools To prepare ad hoc analysis according to local condition the data provided by GMFS can be processed through the free software SPIRITS. This software was freely distributed to the different users and specific trainings were organised in different countries. SPIRITS ( Software for the Processing and Interpretation of Remotely sensed Image Time Series ) software is being developed by VITO (partially in the framework of the JRC sponsored MARSOP3 project) and is dedicated to time series analysis. This software is a subset of tools based on the VITO processing chains with a user friendly interface. The software is being updated based on user evaluation and user feedback. GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 11 of 32

12 Figure 3: Screen Shot of SPIRITS. Part of SPIRITS that allows users to select difference indicatot calculating, based on current year compared to Long Term Average (LTA) of previous year. ULG has also adapted free statistics and remote sensing software to generate the yield forecast. The free Statistics Software that was adapted for the users was R. This is a programming language for statistical analysis and freely available under GNU License ( The adaptation of the remote sensing software is a C++ program that was written to read TIMESAT phenology outputs. Theses outputs are binary files and contains seasonality parameters. With TIMESAT it is only possible to display the phenology outputs as images. The new program extracts for all pixels the information and stores it in CSV format. This CSV file is the basis for the statistical modelling phase. GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 12 of 32

13 2.5. Ethiopia and Mozambique Service Several training sessions were organised during the reporting period: Date Topic Participants Organisator and place 21/03-25/03/2011 Qualitative analysis INAM, MINAG, WFP, UEM, CENACARTA Maputo, Mozambique 04/04-08/04/2011 Qualitative analysis DRMFSS, MoA Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia NMA 01/05/2011 Follow up DRMFSS Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 17/10-28/10/2011 Crop forecast and qualitative MoA Ethiopia, MoA VITO analysis Mozambique Mol, Belgium During the first visit in October 2010 to the Ethiopian EWS user, the Disaster Risk management for Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) of the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), it was very clear that there is a need for capacity building. As such it was decided to organise a first training session before the start of the Meher Season (May to October) This first training session was organised in April 2011 and people from DRMFSS, the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and the National Meteorological Authority (NMA) were involved. During this first training an introduction into the new indicators and the new tools was given. Examples of the previous growing season where discussed. The software and the data sets were delivered. to the users. In May 2011 a follow mission was planned where only the experts of the DRMFSS where involved. This mission was focussed to support of the Ethiopian EWS user at the start of the growing season. This effort lead to the first integration of GMFS data in the Early Warning Bulletins of the DRMFSS. See figure 4, section of the Early Warning and Response Analysis of May 2011, as published by the DRMFSS, where GMFS products have been used. The full bulletin is provided in ANNEX II (GMFS3_S6_CYVM_v2.2_annex2_bulletin.pdf). A Similar Approach was followed for the EWS user in Mozambique. A first training was organised in the beginning of 2011 to introduce the users to the new products and software. Their feedback is reported in the GMFS3_U7_CYVM_v1.1. More Feedback on these training sessions can be found in the GMFS3_C17_Training Review_v1.2 document. During 2011 it was discussed with the users that a joint CYVM training at VITO would be highly appreciated. As such the users could see the operational production units and interact with each other. This training was organised in October 2011 and was considered very successful by the users. During this training the newly developed applications (already tested for Niger and Senegal) where now demonstrated and tested for Mozambique and Ethiopia). In Ethiopia a comparison between MERIS-RR, SPOT-VEGETATION and Rainfall Estimates (RFE) was made. The RFE used in this exercise where the same as already used in the LEAP software NOAA RFE2 ( The FEWS-NET data was also used for comparison in Mozambique. The different products that were presented to and discussed with the national users can be found in figures GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 13 of 32

14 Figure 4: Extract Of DRMFSS publication using GMFS inputs (fapar and VPI images used in the Early Warning and Response Analysis of May 2011, full publication in ANNEX) GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 14 of 32

15 Figure 5: Start of the Belg Growing Season Analysis in Ethiopia (Comparison based on actual fapar with the LTA, shift expressed in decades ranging from -6 to +6 days). RFE data: NOAA RFE2 ( GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 15 of 32

16 Figure 6: VPI analysis start of the Meher growing Season (red = below average values, green above average values) Absolute Difference NDVI ( LTA) SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG Figure 7: Cluster Analysis of growing Season in Mozambique (Agricultural Area). Cluster profiles can be seen at the bottom left of the figure. GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 16 of 32

17 Figure 8: Similarity Analyse for Mozambique ( ) (Each colour in the figure is a different year ranging from 2002 to 2009) Figure 9: Mozambique profiles (NDVI, fapar, RFE) compared to the historical average. RFE data: NOAA RFE2( GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 17 of 32

18 2.6. AGHRYMET/ CSE Services An important training effort was made in 2011 towards CSE and AGRHYMET to transfer the CYVM analysis protocols to these two advanced users. Monthly telephone calls were organised during the crop season to support and accompany them in the data analysis. The following training sessions were organised: Date Topic Participants Organisator and place 11/2010 Exploratory meeting for biomass and yield forecasts 22/02-25/02/2011 Crop forecast and qualitative analysis 21/03_25/03/2011 Crop forecast and qualitative analysis 25/07-12/08/2011 Crop forecast and qualitative analysis 19-23/12/2011 Rangeland biomass estimates preparation 17-23/10/2011 Presentation of the crop yield forecast 17/10-28/10/2011 Crop forecast and qualitative analysis AGRHYMET, MoA Niger CSE AGRHYMET AGRHYMET, CSE AGRHYMET, MoA Niger AGRHYMET, NGOs, DONORS CSE ULG Niamey, Niger VITO/ULG Mol, Belgium VITO/ULG Mol, Belgium ULG/VITO Arlon, Belgium ULG Niamey, Niger ULG Niamey, Niger VITO Mol, Belgium As a result of this close collaboration a new product was developed with AGRHYMET as a derived indicator from the similarity approach. The resulting maps shows the anticipation or delay in the start of the 2011 season compared with the average. The following products were developed over Niger (as illustrated) and Senegal: Fig10. Cluster analysis over agricultural area (MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10_v0) GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 18 of 32

19 Fig11. Cluster analysis over rangeland area (MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10_v0) Fig12. Comparison of 2011 with LTA over agricultural area (MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10_v0) GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 19 of 32

20 Fig13. Comparison of 2011 with LTA over rangeland area (MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10_v0) Fig14. Exploratory yield estimates based upon similarity analysis from the historical archive(meris_rr_fapar_sim_s10_v0) GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 20 of 32

21 Fig15. Anomaly in the start of season It was decided to deliver the Cluster and Similarity at specific date before bulletin production (3 to 4 times a year). For sustainability purpose, the GMFS approach focused on the transfer of the analysis protocol interpretation to the user, in order to give them the capacity to use any vegetation related indices (fapar, NDVI from MERIS, VGT, AVHRR). For their analysis AGRHYMET and CSE preferred to use NDVI SPOT-VGT, as their users are more familiar with such index and the related sensor was offering a significant time series compatible with the yield forecast methods. The new parametric yield forecast methods of GMFS3 have taken into consideration the following improvements: - Make the forecast at level 1 level and calibrate a specific model for each administrative entity when previously the simulation was performed at national level, - Increase the number of meteo data input by using the ECMWF continuous grids to cover the all country when originally limited number of stations were used, - Increase the vegetation index resolution by using VGT at 1Km instead of GAC data at 8Km. Four products/services were delivered for each user (CSE and AGRHYMET) - The calibrated models for each district, - The training to perform the forecast and learn how to make the simulation with the adapted tools, - The software module environment derived from free tools, - The yield forecasts. GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 21 of 32

22 AGRHYMET has found that the GMFS analysis protocols and yield forecast were relevant for their season monitoring. They decided to produce, publish and distribute 3 bulletins reviewing the GMFS information support components with the derived analysis over Niger (see ANNEX III-IV-V attached pdf file) They expressed their wish to get support to extend the bulletin to the other 8 CILSS countries. September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 Fig.16: 3 AGRHYMET bulletins In CSE due to the departure of the main GMFS coordinator the products/services were much less valorised. However they have added into they bulletin one of the analysis protocol shown during the training confirming the usefulness of the approach (see annex VI). Fig. 17: CSE bulletin with the Cluster analysis protocol from GMFS GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 22 of 32

23 2.7. RCMRD / DDS Service During the reporting period, updates to the GMFS mosaic processor were made in collaboration with the TIGER CBF project, and the updated software was distributed to the GMFS DDS users. Updates included amongst others new compositer, that can handle min, max and mean compositing (see figure 18) Figure:18 Update made to the MosaicProcessing Tool At the end of June 2011 a training session on the updated MosaicProcessing tool was organised at the offices of RCMRD. A next training session is foreseen in collaboration with the ESA-TIGER project in December 2011 in South Africa (RCMRD and AGHRYMET will be present during this meeting). As can be seen from the communication (figure 17), the training was successful and RCMRD is producing 10 daily NDVI and fapar images based upon the MosaicProcessor. Next to this, the data was distributed via ftp and DDS. GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 23 of 32

24 Figure 19: confirming support and success of training at RCMRDR 2.8. FAO Service The main support given to FAO was to consolidate the MERIS archive and deliver the uptodate fapar data. Several ad hoc trainings were organised with NRL/NRC/EST-GIEWS experts to show them the potential of the information and how to extract it with SPIRITS. However for the time being there is no specific activity dedicated to the Early warning data processing. Only NRL is still processing the Rainfall Estimate from FEWS for EST-GIEWS. From the suspension of the SPOT-VGT NDVI data acquisition no alternative process was defined. FAO users are mostly interested into the final information support than the data processing itself. Close interaction was developed with the CFSAM service that benefited directly from the CYVM service. GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 24 of 32

25 2.9. Anomalies and problems SLA s The Cluster and Similarity products (MERIS_RR_fAPAR_clus_S10, MERIS_RR_fAPAR_sim_S10) mentioned in the SLA s are not delivered on 10 daily basis. After detailed analysis, and development of new product interpretation / use and discussion with the users it was decided to use the Cluster and Similarity product at specific moments in the growing season. As such, the datasets were delivered and analysed during the different training sessions in the specific countries and not on a 10 daily basis General Service: Archived Data As mentioned before the NRT data and the reprocessed archive that is currently being downloaded do not have the same processing level. This means that the difference images and the similarity images that are being provided to the GMFS CYVM users are still based on the previous version of the archive. However VITO will continue to download and process the updated / reprocessed archive. Product Period status MERIS RR fapar archive processed (February 2011) MERIS RR fapar archive (25.01)2011 Being downloaded, 2010 and (reprocessed archive) 2009 downloaded) Ethiopia Service FTP delivery of the data is still problematic for the user. In the meanwhile the geonetcast receiver is installed by ITC at DRMFSS. We are currently planning with ITC to have a joint training session in January in use and access of the data over the geonetcast antenna AGRHYMET/CSE services The main expert, Gora Beye, in charge of GMFS has moved to another project just at the end of the phase 2 and after having benefited from more than 4 weeks training effort. CSE has nominated another person in charge of GMFS activities who have a good agronomic background but new in remote sensing and CSE methods. Despite the effort of Gora Beye to pass over his knowledge some times are required to upgrade the new expert. Meanwhile CSE will not be able to fully valorise GMFS products and services. AGRHYMET would like to extend the GMFS service from Niger and Senegal to the different countries they cover at least over the CILSS area (9 countries). Further resources are needed to adapt the different qualitative and quantitative analysis protocol and transfer them to AGRHYMET Customer complaints & resolution N/A 3. EXTERNAL & COMMON INFRASTRUCTURE All data is stored on the GMFS FTP site. Distribution of Data is done over the ESA DDS system 4. STANDARDS The GMFS service network maintains an in-house database which is standardized in the following matter: - projection: geographic, WGS84 - image formats: raw binary - Quicklooks: JPG / PNG Other products like Rainfall Estimate from FEWS NET are also used in the analysis data flow and the Albers Equal Area/Clark1866 projection is then applied to ingest the data into the data base. GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 25 of 32

26 GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 26 of 32

27 ANNEX I U8 DOCUMENTS U8 Senegal GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 27 of 32

28 U8 AGRHYMET GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 28 of 32

29 U8 RCMRD communication with confirmation and acceptance of the support GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 29 of 32

30 U8 Mozambique GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 30 of 32

31 U8 Ethiopia GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 31 of 32

32 ANNEX II DRMFSS BULLETIN See pdf file attached: GMFS3_S6_CYVM_v2.2_annex2_bulletin.pdf ANNEX III AGRHYMET BULLETIN I See pdf file attached: GMFS3_S6_CYVM_v2.2_annex3_bulletin.pdf ANNEX IV AGRHYMET BULLETIN II See pdf file attached: GMFS3_S6_CYVM_v2.2_annex4_bulletin.pdf ANNEX V AGRHYMET BULLETIN III See pdf file attached: GMFS3_S6_CYVM_v2.2_annex5_bulletin.pdf ANNEX VI CSE BULLETIN See pdf file attached: GMFS3_S6_CYVM_v2.2_annex6_bulletin.pdf GMFS3_S6_CYVM_2011_v2.2. Page 32 of 32