Agriculture and land tenure

Transcription

1 ECON 184 Agriculture and land tenure ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 1

2 Contents 1 Agriculture Agriculture and development Why is agriculture important? Agriculture in Africa Access to markets Agricultural labor and income Land tenure Land distribution Land rights Marriage and land ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 2

3 1 Agriculture ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 3

4 1.1 Agriculture and development ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 4

5 Figure 1.2 Shares of labor and GDP in agriculture decline as countries develop 1 Share of Agriculture in GDP and NPL Share BFA of Labor in agriculture Share of Agriculture in GDP BDI RWA.9 NER Share of Labor in Agriculture MWI GIN ETH MOZ MLI UGA TZA China TCD LAO KEN MDG SEN PNG Senegal AGO KHM ZMB.7 VNM CHN ZAR SDN ZWE TGO CMR IND.6 GHA BGD THA BEN ZAR LAO YEM CIV BDI IDN.5 PAK ETH GTM TUR LKA BOL TZA MLI RWA UGAGHA PHL.4 NER NPL KHMBEN MAR TGO NGA TJK NGA EGY PRY MDG SDN HND TCD CMR PER MWI MOZ TJK SLV BFA PNG SYR.3 UZB AZE ECU PRY IRN BGD VNM IND KEN CIV DZA TUN YEM PAK HND SYR IRN GTM COL POL MEX GIN SEN LKA PHL MYS.2 DOM BRA CHN ROM CHL ZMB ZWE IDN UKR BOL MAR COL AZE BLR BLREGY ROM TUN SLV UKR DOM TUR HUN AGO ECU DZATHA ZAF MYS ARG BGR SVK VEN.1 PER BRA CZE SVK CHL POLHUN VENCZE MEX ARG ZAF Log of GDP per capita (constant 2 US$), ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 5

6 Figure 9.2 Higher share of wage workers in agricultural employment in countries with higher income per capita 1 TJK UKR HRV.8 KGZ.6 CRI PAN CHL.4.2 Source: same as table 9.2. IND ZAF GUY COL STP JOR HND BIH ECU NIC SLV LSO TUR GTM BRA IDN KEN DOM JAM VNM PAK EGYPRY MAR THA YEM BOL PER ETH RWA CPV MOZ MDG UGA KHM BTN BEN CMR ALB TMP FJI MHL BDI SLE BFAGHAGMB HTI AGO Log GDP per capita (US$, cst) POL MEX ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 6

7 1.2 Why is agriculture important? ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 7

8 Agricultural growth is expected to be pro-poor. Figure 1.3 Income gains from growth originating in agriculture are larger for the poorer expenditure deciles Income gains (%) Ag growth Non-Ag growth Expenditure deciles Source: Ligon and Others (26). ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 8

9 Is where most of the poor live Figure A.1 Rural poverty rates and number of rural poor ($2.15 a day poverty line) % 6 4 EAP ECA LAC MNA SA millions EAP ECA LAC MNA SA 2 SSA Total 2 SSA ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 9

10 Poverty is related to yields Figure 1.1 Cereal yields up, poverty down in South Asia cereal yields flat, poverty flat in Sub- Saharan Africa Cereal Yields and $1 a day Poverty Incidence in South Asia Cereal Yields and $1 a day Poverty Incidence in Sub-Saharan Africa Cereal Yields (Kg/Ha) Poverty (right axis) Yields (left axis) Poverty Headcount (%) Cereal Yields (Kg/Ha) Poverty (right axis) Yields (left axis) Poverty Headcount (%) ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 1

11 1.3 Agriculture in Africa ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 11

12 Yields didn t increase in SSA Figure 2.1 Rising cereal yields but not in Sub-Saharan Africa ( ) 5 4 Developed Countries Developing Countries 5 4 SSA SAS EAP MNA 3 2 Yields (ton/ha) 3 2 LAC Yields (ton/ha) Notes: SSA: Sub Saharan Africa, SAS: South Asia, EAP: East Asia Pacific, MNA: Middle East and North Africa, LAC: Latin America and Caribbean. Source: FAO (26a). ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 12

13 African farmers are far from markets Map 2.2 Market access within the extent of agriculture for Africa, Asia and Latin America ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 13

14 SSA: poor irrigation and far from markets Figure 2.5 Diverse agricultural potential and varying distances to markets (2) 1 Agricultural Potential 1 Market Access % of rural population % of rural population SSA SA EAP MNA ECA LAC Irrigated Good Rainfed Less favored rainfed SSA SA EAP MNA LAC High (-1 hour) Medium (2-4 hs) Low (more than 5 hs) Notes: SSA: Sub Saharan Africa, SAS: South Asia, EAP: East Asia Pacific, MNA: Middle East and North Africa, LAC: Latin America and Caribbean. No data for market access are available for Europe and Central Asia ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 14

15 No green revolution in SSA Box figure A Expansion of cereal production has followed very different paths in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia ( =1) Yield ( =1) ASIA AFRICA Area ( =1) Note: Each point represents five-year averages, starting with =1. ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 15

16 Alternative: High value products Figure 2.11 High value exports up traditional exports down in developing countries $ billion 2 prices 7 62% % 27% 3% % 16% 2 12% 1% 1 Cereals Traditional Exports Meat, Fish, Dairy & Eggs Fruits and Vegetables Notes: Traditional exports include cocoa, tea, coffee, rubber, tobacco, sugar, cotton and spices. Percen numbers represent the share in total exports ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 16

17 1.4 Access to markets ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 17

18 SSA has limited access to roads Figure 5.1 Access to roads is limited in many low-income countries Road Density, km/1 popn Rwanda Ethiopia Burundi DR Congo Mali Senegal Mozambique Tanzania Uganda Ghana Guinea Cameroon Bur.Faso Nepal Pakistan Bangladesh India Bhutan Sri Lanka Thailand China Indonesia Philippines Cambodia Vietnam Laos Guatemala Peru Mexico Argentina Costa Rica Brazil 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Rural Popn Access to Roads Africa South Asia East Asia Latin America Road Density Source: World Bank Transport Database. % of Rural Population with Access to All Season Road ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 18

19 ...creating high transport costs Figure 6.2 Transport costs can make up two-thirds or more of the farmgate price of fertilizer in Africa countries, 25 8 Procurement cost components (US $ / ton) Domestic transport International shipping Sourcing United States Nigeria Malawi Zambia ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 19

20 Policy options for market integration Table 5.1 Public and private options for strengthening farmer linkages to the market Issue Lack of access to markets Weak technical capacity Meeting quality standards Meeting contract conditions Farmer exposure risk Public sector Public investments Policy environment Liberalize domestic trade; foster development of input and credit markets Investment in education, rural infrastructure (roads, markets, electricity, irrigation); support formation of farmer organizations Support market oriented extension Support farmer training on good agricultural practices for quality enhancement Train firms in contract design and management; train farmers on their rights and obligations Foster development of commodity and futures exchanges; train firms on use of market instruments to hedge risk. Source: Adapted from World Bank (27). Foster environment for private extension participation Establish grades and standards Foster institutions for dispute resolution; strengthen producer organizations Create enabling environment for insurance market Private sector Assist farmers in forming farmer organizations Provide extension and key inputs to farmers Supply inputs and train farmers on quality management Foster trust; develop contracts that are selfenforcing Use contracts which share risk equally among parties, assist farmers to access insurance ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 2

21 1.5 Agricultural labor and income ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 21

22 Agriculture alone cannot absorb rural workers Figure 9.1 Agriculture is not absorbing new rural workers Millions of people 5 4 SSA Millions of people 12 1 SA 8 Rural populatio Agriculture labor for Millions of people EAP Millions of people LAC Millions of people MENA Millions of people ECA Source: FAOSTAT ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 22

23 Diversified sources of income Table 9.1 The rural economy exhibits diversified sources of income Income shares Agricultural income Non-agricultural On farm Wage Transfers and others Ethiopia b.18 Ghana 1998 a Malawi 24 a Nigeria 24 a Zambia b.17 Ecuador 1998 a El Salvador Guatemala 2 a Nicaragua 21 a Panama 23 a Peru n.a. ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 23

24 High value products and labor demand Figure 9.5 Labor requirements are considerably higher for vegetables than for cereals Average number of labor days per ha Cereals Vegetables India Philippines Lao PDR Vietnam (southern) Bangladesh Cambodia Vietnam (northern) Source: Weinberger and Lumpkin (25). ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 24

25 2 Land tenure ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 25

26 2.1 Land distribution Table 3.2 Changes in farm size and land distribution Land distribution Gini Average farm size (ha) Change total no of farms Change total area Country Period Start End Start End % % Decreased farm size, increased inequality Bangladesh Total Pakistan Total Thailand Total Ecuador Total Land type* Decreased farm size, decreased inequality India Total Egypt Total Malawi Cultivated Tanzania Cultivated Chile Agricultural Panama Total Increased farm size, increased inequality Botswana Cultivated Brazil Total Increased farm size, decreased inequality Togo Cultivated Algeria Agricultural. Inequality obtained from the Malawi household survey. * Total land area, Agricultural (crop and livestock) land area, or cultivated (planted) crop area. Source: Anriquez and Bonomi (27). Calculations based on agricultural censuses ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 26

27 2.2 Land rights Socially agreed rules about relationships among people. Multiple rights. Overlapping rights. Contradictory rights. Use rights versus transfer rights. Rights contingent on social status. Understood meanings within the group. ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 27

28 Why are land rights important? Household are not monolithic institutions. Disagreement occur, just like in any collective decisions. There is evidence suggesting than men and women have different preferences over the education and health investments of their children. Fathers tend to invest more in boys, mothers in girls. How resources are allocated depends on the bargaining power of each spouse. And bargaining power could be related to income and options outside marriage. Why? ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 28

29 2.3 Marriage and land Consider a marriage model. Assume that all men and women are identical within groups. Men and women are looking for lifetime partners. At marriage women earn r f but have to give up p f. (forgone entrepreneurship) Similarly, married men gain r m p m where p m is the cost of marriage. ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 29

30 Now consider the case where women can demand land from men as part of the marriage negotiation. If men agree to give women land, men loose d m (lack of optimality in resources) and women earn d f (earnings from agriculture.) What is them the optimal strategy for women and men? ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 3

31 Decision tree women's choices demands land no land men's choices men's payoff r m -p m women's payoff r f -p f Agree Disagree men's payoff r m -p m -d m women's payoff r f -p f +d f ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 31

32 What is best for men?...if asked, give land. women's choices demands land no land men's choices men's payoff r m -p m women's payoff r f -p f Agree Disagree men's payoff r m -p m -d m women's payoff r f -p f +d f ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 32

33 What is best for women?...ask for land. women's choices demands land no land men's payoff r m -p m -d m men's payoff r m -p m women's payoff r f -p f +d f women's payoff r f -p f ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 33

34 Sources Unless otherwise notice, all figures and tables come from the World Development Report 28. The final version if available here ECON 184: Agriculture and land tenure April 23, 29 34