LAURIE JOHNSON CONSULTING. Multi-hazard Resilience Planning. Laurie Johnson APA National Conference April 3, 2016

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1 LAURIE JOHNSON CONSULTING Urban Planning Risk Management Disaster Recovery Multi-hazard Resilience Planning Laurie Johnson APA National Conference April 3, 2016 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting Research

2 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Bay Area Housing and Community Multiple Hazard Risk Assessment Project: Goals Understand the housing and communities characteristics that affect resilience to earthquakes and flooding Identify potential consequences of housing and community risk in areas of future growth Develop strategies to reduce risks and increase regional resilience, sustainability, prosperity, and equity Share findings with jurisdictions throughout the region, the state and the country

3 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Keeping people in homes post-disaster leads to a better recovery keeps social networks intact, keeps local businesses going, and keeps the economy strong. Housing as Keystone to Resilience

4 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Advisory Committee Experts in hazards, housing, and community vulnerability Bay Area Stakeholders Local agency staff, decision makers, non-profits, academics, interested community members Project Leads ABAG s Resilience Program BCDC s ART Program Strategy Consultant AECOM/ LJCR Funders USGS, US EPA FEMA, Smart Growth Council Technical Report EPA Smart Growth Program Community Profiles Strategies Manual Available at: resilience.abag.ca.gov

5 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Part of other resilience projects Adapting to Rising Tides Alameda County Project Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Regional Transportation Assessment and Adaptation Options City, county, and sector-specific projects, e.g., Contra Costa ART Stronger Housing, Safer Communities Project Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update BART Climate Adaptation Pilot Rail Hot Spots Assessment Sustainable Community Strategy Update

6 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Hazards Ground Shaking Liquefaction Current flooding (FEMA 100-year flood zones) Future flooding (24, 36 and 48 of sea level rise) Analysis Indicators Housing Communities 8 types most likely to have poor structural performance when subjected to a hazard 10 socio-economic characteristics that reduce the ability to prepare for, respond to, and recover from a disaster

7 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Regional Summary Maps Fragile Housing Types in Hazard Areas Communities at Risk in Hazard Areas Communities at Risk in Fragile Housing

8 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Communities at Risk in Fragile Housing

9 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks

10 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Community Profiles (continued) Fragile Housing (Shaking) Fragile Housing (Current Flooding) Community Risk (Future Flooding)

11 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Key Issues lead to targeted strategies Housing Issues Community Issues Challenges Strategies Building codes life safety only Residents resource constrained Low-income residents can t shelter in place Improve building codes Liquefaction damages foundations Housing affordability issues People can t afford new housing Encourage hazard insurance Ground shaking damages homes Limited hazard information People don t retrofit Develop retrofit programs

12 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks State-led Strategies Region-led Strategies Locally-led Strategies Strategies Strategies that reduce development in the highest hazard areas Strategies to retrofit fragile housing in seismic hazard areas Strategies to increase building standards for new construction in seismic hazard zones Strategies to address flood hazards Policy tools that support financing mechanisms Strategies to prepare for post-disaster recovery Strategies for coordination with non-profit organizations and community organizations

13 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Strategies organized to be quickly Strategy understood Template

14 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Information provided on how to implement Strategy Template (continued)

15 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Examples and how to find out more Strategy Template (continued)

16 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Strategy Examples

17 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Strategy Examples

18 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Strategy Selection Guidance (by Hazard, Housing Vulnerability, and Community Vulnerability)

19 Stronger Housing, Safer Communities: Strategies for Seismic and Flood Risks Strategy Financing Guidance

20 Project Insights Growing appreciation in the region for multi-hazard risk assessment and planning (particularly in linking climate change with other hazards) both in existing and new development Spotlight on housing and community vulnerability, gaps in current planning policies and building codes, but also opportunities for cross-hazard application of policies/approaches Significant lift provided by on-going collaborative partnership (federal and foundation funding, state and regional leadership, local, NGO, and community interest group participation) Spotlight on implementation funding challenges, but also expanded financing considerations for addressing hazards Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting Research

21 Thank you! resilience.abag.ca.gov Dana Brechwald: Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting Research

22 APA National Conference Phoenix, AZ April 3, 2016

23 Why Colorado? The population is growing We are no stranger to hazards (and they are increasing in frequency and severity) Many Colorado communities face hazards Riparian areas (floodplains) Forested areas (wildland-urban interface) Ridgelines (steep slopes)

24 Colorado Resiliency Framework Result of a 2-year partnership across the state Governor adopted in 2015 Establishes a vision and definition of resilience Seeks to empower a culture of resilience Outlines concrete strategies, including this guide coloradounited.com

25 Approaches to Consider Avoidance The most effective way to protect development from hazards is simply to prohibit development in known hazard areas. But that s not always possible

26 Approaches to Consider Prevent development in hazardous areas Direct future growth to safer areas Strengthen existing development in hazardous areas

27 Consider Community Context Size and geographic location Technical, administrative, and financial capacity Community goals and political will

28 Consider the Interrelatedness of Hazards For example: Drought Fire Lightning Fire Fire Flooding Fire Debris Flow Flooding Soil Hazards

29 Consider Climate Change Colorado Climate Plan (2015) suggests that Colorado temperatures will increase another 2.5 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050 Longer and more severe droughts Faster and earlier snowmelt More frequent periods of extreme heat

30 Overview of the Planning for Hazards Guide

31 Overall Goals Communicate to multiple audiences Ensure all content is accessible in a variety of formats Printed guide User-friendly exploration of major planning tools All content, plus internal and external links Website: Essential content from all chapters (background, framework, resources, examples) Multiple ways (entry points) to access information Multimedia content Foundation for future updates

32 Outline: Introduction and Summary Planning Framework Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Planning Tools and Strategies Moving Forward Appendix Hazards in Colorado

33 The Hazards Lineup

34 Planning Tool Profiles

35 What s in the Tool Profiles? How it Works Implementation Where It s Been Done Advantages and Key Talking Points Challenges Model Code Language and Commentary (for some) Key Facts Examples and More Information

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37 Quick key facts Capacity requirements Statutory requirements Maintenance concerns Associated costs Examples from around Colorado (and sometimes the U.S.) For more information includes supporting reference materials

38 Models and Commentary Integrating Risk Reduction into Comprehensive Plans Climate Plan Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP) Hazard Mitigation Plan Parks and Open Space Plan Pre-Disaster Planning Community Rating System Development Agreements Transfer of Development Rights Density Bonuses 1041 Regulations Cluster Subdivisions Land Acquisition Overlay Zoning Stream Buffers and Setbacks Low-Impact Development and Stormwater Management BMPs Site-Specific Assessments Subdivision and Site Layout Standards Use-Specific Standards Building Code Critical Infrastructure Protection WUI Code Application Submittal Requirements Post-Disaster Building Moratorium

39 Case Study Cluster Subdivisions

40 Case Study Cluster Subdivisions SW County Big City Small Town Front Range Resort

41 Appendix Hazards in Colorado Expanded information related to the hazards profiled in the guide. Each hazard includes: Description of the hazard Hazard risk in Colorado Related hazards Available data sources Summary of applicable planning tools and strategies

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43 Goals of the Website Accommodate different user experiences Offer user-friendly interface Make it easy to access information from the printed guide Bring the document to life through enriched media Dynamic with new content over time JANE JIM JOHN

44 Jim s Scenario Jim has some burning questions How does wildfire impact communities? What types of planning tools can address wildfire? What other hazards can be addressed with the same planning tool? Is there model code language for that planning tool?

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47 Video Interviews Enriched media content Real life examples of planning for hazards Description of tools

48 Moving Forward/Next Steps

49 Putting the Guide into Action Use guide: to inform community planning policies and procedures to support emergency management and mitigation efforts as an educational and outreach tool

50 Choosing Appropriate Planning Tools Ask the following questions when selecting tools and strategies: What hazards are you trying to mitigate? Do you have policies in place already? Do you have capacity to implement? Do you have community buy-in? Could you accomplish multiple goals with one tool?

51 Forming a Network Identify subject matter experts Find examples from other communities Develop best practices and additional resources Harness political leadership Recruit local champions

52 Next Steps The Center for Sustainable Urbanism at the University of Colorado Denver will maintain the website Implementation Program with 2 pilot communities Additional best practices? Submit your ideas to: Andrew.Rumbach@ucdenver.edu

53 Thank You Anne Miller, AICP Tareq Wafaie, AICP

54 Incorporating Disaster Risk Reduction into Planning Sunday, April 3, :00 5:15 pm PHOENIX 2016 NATIONAL PLANNING CONFERENCE

55 HMDR Hazard Mitigation & Disaster Recovery Planning Division LinkedIn = 570, Dues paying = 262 Other: NHMA Natural Hazard Mitigation Association ASFPM APA American Planning Association (42,000 members) HMDRPLN.com Other Divisions (21) Transportation, Housing & Community Development, Regional and Intergovernmental, Planning & Law, Economic Development, New Urbanism, Environment, Natural Resources & Energy, Sustainable Communities, Urban Design & Preservation, Technology, Sustainable Communities, etc. NHMA.info Flood.org Association of State Floodplain Managers Planning.org APA Staff Hazards Planning Center Recovery News (blog) Planning for Post-Disaster Recovery: Next Generation Hazard Mitigation: Integrating Best Practices into Planning Policy Guide on Hazard Mitigation. Other Policy Guides 2

56 Planning for Resilience? Not a new concept!

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59 No shortage of current resources

60 No shortage of local planning efforts Local Mitigation Plan Status as of January 2016

61 Integrating hazard mitigation + local planning Effective integration of hazard mitigation occurs when your community s planning framework leads to development patterns that do not increase risks from known hazards or leads to redevelopment that reduces risk from known hazards.

62 Natural Disasters?