Forests in a Changing Climate - Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Transcription

1 Forests in a Changing Climate - Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Andreas Fischlin Coordinating Lead Author Chapter «Ecosystems», WG II, Fourth Assessment Report Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Systems Ecology, Institute of Integrative Biology (IBZ), Environmental Sciences

2 Contents 1. Current climatic trends 2. Future climate change 3. Impacts on forests 4. Adaptation and forests 5. Vulnerabilities

3 1 Current Climate Change Trends

4 4 Observed Temperatures After Figure TS.6 (IPCC, Technical Summary WGI) 11 out of 12 years ( ) are warmest ever measured! Ranking 12 warmest: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period /10a ± ± ± ±0.012

5 5 Changes in Precipitation ( ) Increase Decrease Smoothed anomalies (%) over continents After Figure 3.14 (Trenberth et al., IPCC WGI)

6 2 Future Climate Change

7 7 Scenario differences become more pronounced as we advance in time Figure TS.28: Projected surface temperature changes (IPCC, Technical Summary WGI)

8 8 Future: Changes in Precipitation Rain increases at high latitudes (very likely); Rain decreases at low latitudes (likely); Figure SPM.7: Relative changes in precipitation vs (IPCC, Summary for Policy Makers WGI)

9 3 Impacts on Forests

10 10 IPCC Assessment Report 4 WGII, Chapter 4 «Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services» 2 CLAs: Andreas Fischlin, Guy F. Midgley 8 LAs: Jeff Price, Rik Leemans, Brij Gopal, Carol Turley, Mark Rounsevell, Pauline Dube, Juan Tarazona, Andrei Velichko 19 CAs with outstanding contributions from Jacqueline de Chazal and Rachel Warren 2 REs Hundred of expert reviewers, scientists etc. >3200 scienti c articles reviewed 915 cited

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12 12

13 13 Boreal forest

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15 15 Mixed deciduous forest

16 16 Temperate forests

17 17 Tropical rain forest

18 18 Tropical dry forests

19 19 Ökosysteme

20 20 Mountain Forests

21 21 Ecosystems Services

22 22 Impacts on Supporting Services

23 23 Impacts on Biodiversity 20%-30% of higher plants and animals at high risk of extinction if T 1.5 C C over present (medium confidence)

24 Biodiversity Hotspots (trop. Rainforests, coral reefs) +3.5 In biodiversity hotspots (e.g. coral reefs, tropical rain forests) 15-40% endemics at risk; half 24 of nature reserves fail +3

25 25 Summary Impacts on Biodiversity The warmer, the more negative the impacts! From Figure SPM.2 (IPCC, Summary for Policy Makers by Working Group II AR4 IPCC)

26 26 Ecosystems Services

27 27 Impacts on Provisioning Services

28 28 Forestry Globally, commercial timber productivity rises modestly with climate change in the short- to medium-term, with large regional variability around the global trend. IPCC, SPM WGII, p.12 (medium confidence)

29 29 Increasing Trends in Fire Frequencies Section (Fischlin et al., IPCC WGII)

30 30 Forest pests - e.g. Canada (Dendroctonus ponderosae, Col., Scolytidae) Mountain pine beetle Section (Fischlin et al., IPCC WGII)

31 31 Summary Impacts on Provisioning Services (Forestry) The warmer, the more negative the impacts!

32 32 Ecosystems Services

33 33 Impacts on Regulating Services

34 34 On the role of terrestrial ecosystems (including forests) Over the course of this century, net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before mid-century and then weaken or even reverse, thus amplifying climate change. (high con dence) IPCC, SPM WGII, p.11

35 35 More Carbon Stored in Ecosystems Figure 4.1: Ecosystems addressed - C stocks, areal extent (Fischlin et al., IPCC WGII)

36 Some DGVM Results - LPJ B1 ECHAM5 Figure 4.3 (b): Projected appreciable changes (>20% per spatial unit transformed) in terrestrial ecosystems by 2100 relative to 2000 (Fischlin et al., IPCC WGII) 36

37 Some DGVM Results - LPJ A2 HadCM3 Figure 4.3 (a): Projected appreciable changes (>20% per spatial unit transformed) in terrestrial ecosystems by 2100 relative to 2000 (Fischlin et al., IPCC WGII) 37

38 38 Sink service at risk +3 > Figure 4.2: Simulated net carbon exachange between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere (Fischlin et al., IPCC WGII)

39 39 Summary Emissions from ecosystems (incl. forests) The warmer, the more negative the impacts! From Figure SPM.2 (IPCC, Summary for Policy Makers by Working Group II AR4 IPCC)

40 4 Adaptation and Forests

41 41 Ecosystems resilience matters Some adaptation has become unavoidable Adaptive adaptation is needed Foster diversity to enhance resilience

42 42 Adaptation requires anticipation of climate change and its impacts 1. Emissions scenario 2. Climate model 3. Downscaling 4. Forest model

43 43 Ex. subalpine Forests Fischlin & Gyalistras, Global Ecol. Biogeogr. - Hafner, 2000.

44 44 and temperate forests Fuhrrer, Beniston, Fischlin, Frei, Goyette, Jaspte &, P ster, Clim. Change, 79:

45 45 Ecosystems resilience matters Some adaptation has become unavoidable Adaptive adaptation is needed Foster diversity to enhance resilience

46 46 Desiquilibrium Recent Climate and Forests Climate Theato, Gyalistras, Fukutome and Fischlin,, 2007 (in prep.)

47 47 Some Climate Change Now Unavoidable Unavoidable Warming: By 2005: C By 2100: +0.6 C Total: C (Minimum!) IPCC 2007 (In IPCC AR4 WGI SPM) IPCC, 2007 Figure TS.32: Multi-model means of surface warming (IPCC, Technical Summary WGI)

48 48 Ecosystems resilience matters Some adaptation has become unavoidable Adaptive adaptation is needed Foster diversity to enhance resilience

49 49 Interdependencies => Unpredictability

50 Recent Emission Trends Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 50-year constant growth rates to 2050 B1 1.1%, A1B 1.7%, A2 1.8% A1FI 2.4% Observed % ) 1 2 E i CO i (GtC Emissions (Gt C/yr)

51 5 Vulnerabilities

52 52 Future Resilience of Ecosystems The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., ooding, drought, wild re, insects, ocean acidi cation), and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, overexploitation of resources). (high con dence) IPCC, SPM WGII, p.11

53 53 First Evidence: Recent Climate Change => Extinctions Golden toad and 74 other amphibian species extinct in montane cloud forests (Pounds et al., 2006; Parmesan, 2006) Golden toad (Bufo periglenes) Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.)

54 54 Ecosystem s resilience exceeded 2-3 Conflict with Article 2 of UNFCCC: The ultimate objective of this convention.. is.. stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level.. to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally Figure TS.6:Compendium of projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems for different levels of global mean annual temperature rise IPCC, Technical Summary WGII

55 55 Ecosystems resilience matters Some adaptation has become unavoidable Adaptive adaptation is needed Foster diversity to enhance resilience

56 56 Thanks for your attention +36% andreas.