Method to prepare and improve data on wood resource balance on national level. Ulrike Saal University of Hamburg

Transcription

1 Method to prepare and improve data on wood resource balance on national level Workshop on Forest sector modelling EFI 20 years Ulrike Saal University of Hamburg

2 Intro What s the issue? Demand for a comprehensive assessment of wood supply and demand New, relatively unknown sources other than wood from forests Need for empirical data Need for conversion factors Need for harmonisation of terminology To Fill data gaps within resource statistics Receive information on resource flows and market structures And information on resource mix of consumers 20 Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 2

3 Intro Wood Resource Balance Supply Demand Forest woody biomass Stemwood C Stemwood NC Sawmill industry Veneer plywood industry Material uses Forest residues Pulp industry Bark Panel industry Landscape care wood Other material uses Short rotation plantation Producer solid wood fuels Other woody biomass Sawmill by-products Other industrial wood residues Forest sector intern. use Biomass power plants Energy uses Black liquor Private households (pellets) Solid wood fuels Private households (other) Post-consumer wood Liquid biofuels Source: Mantau et al., 20 Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 3

4 Outlook Preparing data Sector analysis Data collection Improving data Wood flow analysis Market structure analysis What if? Modelling example Modelling volumes of industrial wood residues 20 Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 4

5 Preparing data Approaching the unknown Segmentation of the sector Data collection Pellets Wood burning Other woody biomass 20 Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 5

6 Preparing data Example wood burning sector Segmentation of the sector from private to commercial 1. Private households 2. Small-scale firing plants < 1MW 3. Large-scale firing plants 1 MW 4. Pulp industry plants industry internal wood energy use 5. Other industrial users Source: Mantau et al., 20 Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 6

7 Preparing data Example wood burning sector Data collection different market structures lead to different survey methods 1. Private households Representative survey of population with particular focus on Residential units (not households!) Assortments of wood energy used Source: Mantau, 2012b; Weimar, 2012 Fuel wood assortments (2010) 1,000 m³ Share Split logs (forest) 21,935 64,7% Split logs (garden) 1,937 5,7% Landscaping residues 0,698 2,1% Bark 1,842 5,4% Timber residues (Private & Sawmills) 2,857 8,4% Wood briquettes 1,426 4,2% Wood pellets 1,627 4,8% Chips / Saw dust 0,209 0,6% Other 1,388 4,1% Total 33, ,0% 20 Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 7

8 Preparing data Example wood burning sector Data collection different market structures lead to different survey methods 1. Private households (DE: 36,090,000 in 2010) 2. Small-scale firing plants < 1MW (DE: 51,207 in 2010) 3. Large-scale firing plants 1 MW (DE: 541 in 2011) 4. Pulp industry plants (DE: 23 in 2005) 5. Other plants Coal, cement and waste (DE: 133 in 2010) Source: Mantau & Weimar, 2008, Mantau et al., 2012; Weimar et al., 2012; Mantau & Jochem, Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 8

9 Preparing data Example wood burning sector Data collection surveys of firing plants Enquiry of all potential addresses and address sources Consolidation of address stock Questionnaire: Does the plant use wood? Verification of plant location Thermal firing capacity / legal permission Annual consumption (tons) and assortments Mail and subsequent telephone survey Target persons: operators of the plants Source: Weimar, Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 9

10 Preparing data Resource Monitoring Overview of realised studies - planned studies Year of survey No. Markets Kind of studies P = parent population; PP = part of parent population; S = Sample; L = Literature study or stat. Analysis Use / Demand 1 Sawmill industry P S P PPS P P P P 2 Pulp and paper industry * P P P L L P P P 3 Wood-based panel industry P P P L P P P P 4 Other material use Veneer and plyw ood, WPC, Bio refinery a. o. LS LS LS 5 Bark and mulch production L SL SL SL 6 Large Biomass power plants > 1MW P P P P P P 7 Small BPP < 1 MW LS P P SL SL SL 8 Other Pplants (Coal, Cement, Waste) P P P P 9 Households S S S S S S S 10 Biofules 11 Pellet industry (wood briquettes) LS L P P P Supply 11 Stemwood (sawlogs/ veneer logs) L L L L L L 12 Industrial roundwood L L L L L L 13 Forest residues L L L L L L 14 Sawmill by-products P S S PS S S S S S 15 Other industrial wood residues S S SL SL SL 16 Chips S SL SL SL 17 Black liquour * S SL SL SL 18 Bark S LS LS LS 19 Post-consumer wood ** P P P S S S 20 Landscape care wood L L L L 21 Short rotation plantation L L L L L Summaries 23 Wood Resource Balance L L L L L L L L L L L L L * if possible through VDP ** no future parent population studies 20 Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 10

11 Improving data Analysing market structures Distribution channels Wood flows Resource mix of consumers Source: Mantau & Weimar, 2008, Mantau et al., 2012; Weimar et al., 2012; Mantau & Jochem, Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 11

12 Market structures Improving data Analysis of distribution channels resources for the panel industry (particle board) Supplier Import Resources Industrial roundwood Forestry Sawmills Sawmill by products Trader Disposal industry Other supplier Post consumer wood Other fibre Source: SÖRGEL, C.; MANTAU, U.: Standorte der Holzwirtschaft Holzwerkstoffindustrie Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 12

13 Improving data Wood flows Differentiation and detailed analysis of resource flows: sawmill by-products [M.m³] (2002) Domestic supply % Import (Im) % Change in Stock No information Export (Ex) % Pulp industry % Domestic availability % Energy plants > 1MW % Panel industry % Energy plants < 1MW % Sawmill industry % households % Other material uses % Source: Mantau Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 13

14 Improving data Resource matrix demand total consumtion residues wood plantat. SUM STW FRES BRK LCW SBP OIR BLL PCW SWF SRP OUT M m³ % % % % % % % % % % % % sawmill industry 0, veneer plywood 0, pulp industry 0, panel industry 0, other material uses 0, forest sect. intern. use 0, biomass power plants 0, households (pellets) 0, households (other) 0, liquid biofuels 0, producer of wood fuels 0, ,0 control round-wood Eintragung von Verbrauchsvolumen [m³(s)] und Rohstoff-Mix other bark industrial forest residues landscape care wood saw mill by prod. black liquor post consumer solid wood fuels short rotation out of balance 20 Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 14

15 What if...? Modelling example Volume of industrial wood residues from further processing industries and manufactured wood products Industry branches classification of industrial activities in the sector Construction Furniture Packaging Other Pictures: Infoholz, 2009; Germantimber 20 Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 15

16 Modelling based on existing data What if...? Modelling example Consumption of sawnwood and wood-based panels - FAOSTAT Share of industrial wood residues per industry branch - Mantau & Bilitewski, 2010 Classification of industrial activities - NACE Rev. 1.1 Structure of industrial activity based on economic indicators - Eurostat Share of industrial wood residues 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Construction Packaging Furniture Other Source: Saal, 2010 Industry branch NACE rev.1.1 Classification of industrial activities Construction DD Packaging DD Other DD Furniture DN e.g. Kitchen Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 16

17 Modelling based on existing data What if...? Modelling example Structure of industrial activity based on economic indicators - Eurostat Consumption of manufactured wood products by industry branch - Mantau & Bilitewski, 2010 Share on turnover - Germany 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Share on total consumption of manufactured wood products in Germany - Mantau & Bilitewski, 2010 turnover 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Construction Packaging Furniture Other 0% Construction Packaging Furniture Other Source: Saal, Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 17

18 Modelling based on existing data What if...? Modelling example Structure of industrial activity based on economic indicators - Eurostat Consumption of manufactured wood products by industry branch Expansion factor based on Mantau & Bilitewski, 2010 Share on turnover EU 27 Share on total consumption of manufactured wood products - based on expansion factor [m³/ ] 70% 60% 70% 60% turnover 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% Construction Packaging Furniture Other 0% Construction Packaging Furniture Other Source: Saal, Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 18

19 Modelling based on existing data What if...? Modelling example Comparison of industry structures of EU countries shares of wood consumption Slovakia EU 27 Finland 3.9% 1.2% 15.4% 8.5% 33.2% 11.9% 9,4% 8.3% 25,0% 59.2% 42,8% 81.2% Construction Furniture Packaging Other Source: Saal, Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 19

20 References Mantau, U. (2005) Development of methods to generate market information and linkages between biomass supply and demand. Celle, 2005 Mantau, U. (2012a): Standorte der Holzwirtschaft Holzrohstoffmonitoring. Energie- holzverwendung in privaten Haushalten. Marktvolumen und verwendete Holzsortimente. Hamburg 2012 Mantau, U. (2012b): Holzrohstoffbilanz Deutschland, Entwicklungen und Szenarien des Holzaufkommens und der Holzverwendung 1987 bis 2015, Hamburg, 2012, 65 S. Mantau, U. & Weimar, H. (2008) Empirical research to fill data gaps, National Wood Resource Balances Workshop, UNECE, Geneva Mantau, U. & Jochem, D. (2012): Holzverwendung in Müllverbrennungsanlagen, Kohlekraftwerken und Zementwerken im Jahr Mantau, U.; MÖLLER, B.; JOCHEM, D. (2012): Standorte der Holzwirtschaft - Holzrohstoffmonitoring. Die energetische Nutzung von Holz in Biomasseanlagen unter 1 MW im Jahr Abschlussbericht. Universität Hamburg, Zentrum Holzwirtschaft, Arbeitsbereich Ökonomie der Holz- und Forstwirtschaft. Hamburg, Mantau, U. et al. 2010: EUwood - Real potential for changes in growth and use of EU forests. Methodology report. Hamburg/Germany, June p. Weimar, H. (2012) A fundamental approach on collecting information to answer the question: How much wood is burnt? UNECE/FAO Joint Wood Energy Enquiry Capacity Building Workshop June 2012, Paris Saal, U. 2010: Industrial wood residues. pp in: EUwood - Methodology report. Hamburg/Germany, June p. Weimar, H.; Döring, P.; Mantau, U. (2012): Standorte der Holzwirtschaft Holzrohstoffmonitoring. Einsatz von Holz in Biomasse-Großfeuerungsanlagen Abschlussbericht. Universität Hamburg, Zentrum Holzwirtschaft, Arbeitsbereich Ökonomie der Holz- und Forstwirtschaft. Hamburg 2012 UNECE, (2008) Proceedings of the National Wood Resource Balances Workshop, UNECE, Geneva 20 Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 20

21 20 Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 21

22 Extra comparison wood balance wood resource balance focus consumption resources & sustainability sectors material uses all uses calculation round wood equivalent solid wood equivalent cascades single uses (assumed) cascade uses gap calculation focus on consumption resource source official statistics additional field research Wood balances and wood resource balances are not contradictory to a methodological point of view. The latter fills some important gaps of actual resource issues. On the other hand end consumer aspects can be included as well e.g. to develop carbon sequestration models. 20 Years EFI - Forest sector modelling Ulrike Saal 22