13 years of European

Transcription

1 13 years of European forest resource analyses Gert-Jan Nabuurs Isabel van den Wyngaert, MartJan Schelhaas, Marcus Lindner, Giuliana Zanchi, Geerten Hengeveld, Andreas Schuck, Jo v Brusselen, Katja Troeltzsch Seattle, Nov 08

2 * Intro & issues in European forests * Regional resource projections with EFISCEN - application to the forest sector - application to climate change, carbon * High resolution present-day work * Conclusions

3 European forests: intro & issues 29 countries: 166 million ha (EU 27 + Nor + Swi) ~93% available for wood supply ~750 million m 3 y -1 increment ~400 million m 3 y -1 annual fellings 25 billion m 3 growing stock, and increasing EFI, Schuck et al. 2007

4 Felling and increment over time Volume (m million m 3 or tonnes) consumption of all commodities in Europe excl CIS Fellings all European countries excl CIS Net annual increment European countries excl CIS Europe s forests are the most intensively managed forests in the world Time (y)

5 Large diversity through man-made forests

6 Ever higher growing stocks lead to increased disturbances Volume of storm damage (schelhaas et al 2003) Volume (million m 3 ) Year

7 Natura 2000 sites largely overlay current forest In addition: forest management is changing to nature orientation ~ 10 million private owners Owner not dependent on forest for income Do we need the wood from clearcuts in Lapland?

8 ..while demand keeps increasing.. Source poyry

9 Forest industry faces increasing energy prices: energy policies aim at higher share of bio energy..increasing competition for the same resource will occur. Europe may loose its forest industry Issues develop fast

10 Russian export tax on roundwood (Euro/m3): puts increased pressure on European forests. Raw material prices rose fast in Apr 2008 ( /m3) 1 Jan 2009 ( /m3) Softwood log Hardwood log Poplar 5 50 Photo : stora enso

11 * regional resource projections with EFISCEN - applications to the forest sector availability of raw material in the future

12 Initialisation Inventory data Detailed regionalised forest inventory data were gathered in 1995 and in 2001 Forest types Volume Growth Aging Thinning Natural mortality Final harvest Regeneration In each forest type: area, growing stock and increment per age class Age Total 5579 forest types; every forest type is run in an area matrix model (Nilsson et al. 1992, Sallnas 1990)

13 Process-based model LPJ Forest management Wood demand Land-use: afforestation deforestation Growth changes due to climate change EFISCEN core model: 15 European national forest inventories 5579 forest types with vol and age cl projections of: - stemwood volume - net annual increment - age classes - removals - forest area by region, tree species, site class, ownership class Whole-tree biomass Litter Tree carbon Felling residues Soil submodule: Soil carbon stock and heterotrophic respiration

14 Scenario assumptions in a projection study: foresee the impacts of increased demand, nature oriented management and carbon credits

15 assumptions - increased demand: low: 1% increase per year. High: 1.5% + extra 80 million m 3 in 2050 for bioenergy - nature oriented management: set aside of all old deciduous forests, prolonged rotations, regenerate with more deciduous - carbon credits: assumed carbon credits for building up C stock in forests: further reduction in wilingness to harvest

16 Result : Total supply Actua al supply (x 1 million m3/y) new management trends projection of historical time (y) stock (m3/ha) Growing Growing stock new management trends projection of historical management time (y)

17 Virtual shortfall hortfall n m3/y) ditional s 1 million Add (x broadleaves conifers coppice time (y)

18 regional (virtual ) shortage of wood? Harvest/increment t ratio by region in 2050 under nature oriented management. (red: more harvest than increment) Nabuurs et al. 2006

19 Results : age classes Reserves Area (1000 ha) Age class

20 regional resource projections with EFISCEN - applications to climate change 1. the empirical model is fed with information from process based models: as a means of upscaling 2. biomass expansion factors and a soil model provide a full carbon balance system

21 Impact of climate change on increment Pussinen et al., in press

22 Forest NBP ( ) 2005) C stock change in trees and soil NEP: TgC yr-1 NBP: TgC yr-1 Zanchi et al. In prep

23 Carbon stock changes current climate climate change climate & land-use change change, Tg C Tree carbon stock a a2 60 ~95 Mha Tree e carbon stock change, Tg C Management -20 can curb the future source into sink b Eggers et al b

24 Available biomass for bioenergy EFISCEN allows to assess suitability of residue extraction from EU25 forests. In 2030, some 63 Mtoe may be available from residues and complementary fellings. ( ~4% of total energy demand) Lindner et al EFI for EEA Schelhaas et al. ADAM -IP

25 Most optimal mitigation measures? Depend on circumstances; measures need to be different. UN negotiations can never grasp that But within Europe it is certainly possible Nabuurs et al 2008

26 * towards high resolution analyses

27 why higher resolution analyses Regionalised EFISCEN was fit for evenaged forest only Was poor on Mediterranean aspects Little detail on where which forest is located Allows variation to be reproduced Allows overlay of GIS material Dealing with mixed forests, providing more insight in forest dynamics, and e.g dead wood Allows e.g. assessment of transport costs Allows overlay of Natura 2000 sites

28 After four years of phoning and ing. Plot locations of received NFI plot data ~ 260, Every plot has location, spp, age, vol, inc, diam, height of trees, dead wood, harvest

29 A first result: 1x1 km, dominant tree spp map (Hengeveld et al.)

30 Zooming in 1 km 2

31 A 1x1 km pseudostand model in development Empirical initialisation based on surrounding plot data Later: some physiological aspects (Kramer et al)

32 What we learned..after 13 years, and some 40 person-years For the first time since mid eighties, harmonised analyses are possible again; Europe s data gathering is still very scattered Despite efforts by JRC, EEA, EFI, UNECE, ICP, and goodwill at NFI s Further harmonisation of NFI s is needed and ongoing g (COST E43) Balkan needs a large effort

33 What we learned - contemporary NBP ~110 Mt C /y - We know little about old forests behaviour in Europe - Sink may saturate in 2 to 3 decades - sink strength has close relation to socio-economics (demands from society on wood raw material, or nature, or biomass, or..) -- management can curb the future reduction in sink, but implementation lacks

34 What we learned - There seems to be ample wood, but Europe has a virtual shortage already - Trends in forest management have an impact in long term, but owner s willingness has an immediate impact - In principle european fellings could rise to ~750 Mm 3 /y, but in reality this will never be achieved. - Natura2000 policies could reduce harvesting with 68 Mm 3 (Verkerk et al), but this may be a too narrow view on forests Finding a balance between all functions is still a -Finding a balance between all functions is still a challenge

35 Thank you Forest Focus programme and the national forest inventory institute s correspondents. A special gratitude goes to the many NFI field crews in the countries. NFI plot data were received from: Jacques Rondeux and Martine Waterinckx, Belgium; Juro Cavlovic, Croatia; Veiko Aderman, Estonia; Kari Korhonen, Finland; Thierry Bélouard & Antoine Colin, France; Heino Polley, Germany; Marino Vignoli, Remo Bertani, Giorgio Dalmasso & Maurizio Teobaldelli, Italy; Andrius Kuliesis, Lithuania; Wim Daamen and Henny Schoonderwoerd, Netherlands; Stein Tomter, Norway; Susanna Barreiro & Margarida Tomé, Portugal; Olivier Bouriaud & Georghe Marin, Romania; Radovan Nevenic, Serbia; Vladimir Seben, Slovak Republic; Gal Kusar, Slovenia; J. Villanueva and Antoni Trasobar, Spain; Göran Kempe, Sweden; Bill Mason & Shona Cameron, United Kingdom; Igor Buksha, Ukraine. Most of this work was carried out under Eforwood-IP, Carbo Europe IP, ADAM-IP and in connection to COST E43.