Climate change impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Wolfgang Cramer
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1 Climate change impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services Wolfgang Cramer Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) & Global Ecology, Institute for Earth- and Environmental Sciences, Potsdam University
2 TAR Reasons IPCC TAR For Concern Reasons for concern 2º C Guardrail Proposed Smith AR4 Reasons et al For Concern Not approved by IPCC Plenary in Brussels 2007
3 Climate change impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services Environmental change affects organisms the detection & attribution problem Species-level changes alter ecosystems and affect biodiversity Changing ecosystems influence human wellbeing through ecosystem services
4 Climate change impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services Environmental change affects organisms the detection & attribution problem Species-level changes alter ecosystems and affect biodiversity Changing ecosystems influence human wellbeing through ecosystem services
5 Influence of temperature on ecosystem processes transpiration shading LAI NPP C- allocation Photosynthesis A Conductance stoma T Respiration R A T NEE evaporation Decomposition rate & quality Soil respiration Soil moisture Root competition N-mineralisation
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8 Accelerated development of grapevines Advanced phenology: 1. bud burst 2. flowering 3. veraison 4. start of harvest starting day of harvest. 25. Nov 15. N o v 5. Nov 26. Okt 16. Ok t 6. Okt Riesling, Schloss Johannisberg, Rheingau 26. Sep 16. Sep Year
9 Alcohol content in wines of Alsace
10 Organisms respond to changes in the environment temperature water availability extreme weather event frequency and intensity (heat waves, frosts, floods, droughts, storms) land use (urbanization, agricultural practice, conservation) pollutant load nutrient availability (including CO 2 ) species interactions (invasions)
11 Climate change impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services Environmental change affects organisms the detection & attribution problem Species-level changes alter ecosystems and affect biodiversity Changing ecosystems influence human wellbeing through ecosystem services
12 Lorraine, France, August 2003
13 NPP anomaly 2003 (based on validated simulations) July - September Annual total Ciais et al. 2005
14 Green NOAA Week, , Pacific Bruxelles Islands Fisheries Science Center
15 Ocean acidification Riebesell et al. 2000
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17 IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch.1
18 some important scientific uncertainties
19 Vegetation dynamics herbaceous vegetation light-demanding pioneer trees initial cohort of shade-tolerant trees f mixed-species, multi-aged and of shade-tolerant trees regeneration in treefall gap
20 early 20th cent. climate actual BAMBU constant new climate
21 ECHAM5 CCSM3 HadCM3 Dynamics of potential natural vegetation in Amazonia (SRES-A2 scenario), using three different climate models Rammig, Thonicke et al. in prep.
22 The uncertain buffering of CO 2 With CO 2 effect Without CO 2 effect Tropical forest Deciduous forest Open forest Woodland Shrub Savannah Rammig et al. (in prep.)
23 Climate change impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services Environmental change affects organisms the detection & attribution problem Species-level changes alter ecosystems and affect biodiversity Changing ecosystems influence human wellbeing through ecosystem services
24 Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being
25 Gains in ecosystem services: Food production By 2050: Food production increases by 70 85% Child malnutrition decreases under 3 of 4 scenarios Child undernourishment in 2050 under MA Scenarios
26 Cost of increased ecosystem services: (iv) Degradation of ecosystem services harms people ½ urban population in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean suffers from one or more diseases associated with inadequate water and sanitation Decline of freshwater fisheries reduce inexpensive source of protein in developing countries. Desertification destroys livelihoods of millions of people, including a large portion of the poor in drylands
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28 The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB)
29 Natura 2000 areas at risk of changing during 21 st century
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31 Capacity building and conceptual reflection with international experts on biodiversity and ecosystem services through international summer schools (2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010) in Peyresq, France NEW SCHOOL 2010: 5-15 September Photograph: Peyresq, France, where Green 35 students Week, , discussed Bruxelles vulnerability of ecosystems in September 2003
32 Thank you very much for your attention!
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