Global Warming. Potential Impact on the Tree species of P.E.I. Department of Environment, Energy and Forestry William M.

Transcription

1 Global Warming Potential Impact on the Tree species of P.E.I. Department of Environment, Energy and Forestry William M. Glen March 2005

2 Sources Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (United Nations) Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, A Canadian Perspective, 2004, Natural Resources Canada Environment Canada weather data for Charlottetown U.S. weather data from the National Climatic Data Center A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States spatial database, U.S. Forest Service Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America U.S. Geological Survey

3 Global warming Temperature increase higher winter temperatures (3-5 degrees) higher summer temperatures (2 to 4 degrees) C0 2 doubling potentially increased growth rates More extreme weather events for the Maritimes similar annual precipitation amounts but possibly up to 29% less rainfall in the growing season so more periods of drought

4 Global Warming

5 World temperature change What happens after 2100??

6 Prince Edward Island Local climate change

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9 Charlottetown average monthly temperature Degrees C Jan Feb Mar-1.8 Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month 1998 to to 2000

10 Average monthly temperatures degrees C Charlottetown Portland, Me New York,NY Allentown,Pa

11 Charlottetown s climate is the same as Kingston, Ontario now +2 degrees is the same as Portland +3 degrees is the same as New York +4 degrees is the same as Allentown, Pa Kingston Portland New York Allentown

12 July mean temperature degrees

13 Current distribution of vegetation types

14 The climate change model that gives the biggest change

15 Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America by Robert S. Thompson 1, Katherine H. Anderson 2, and Patrick J. Bartlein 3 U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1650 A&B

16 White birch

17 Charlottetown February March temperature day Daily Maximiun temp Daily Minium temp

18 White ash

19 Red maple

20 Summary of hardwood species Should benefit Red oak Other oaks Elm Butternut/walnut White/green ash Southern species i.e Tulip tree No change Red maple Sugar maple? Linden Beech willow hawthorn Probably gone? Poplars Striped maple Black ash White birch Yellow birch Grey birch alder

21 P.E.I.Forest Volume (2000) hardwood species 12% 21% 50% 17% Other species Beech Sugar maple Ash Oak red maple birches poplar other species

22 Balsam fir

23 White spruce

24 White pine

25 Summary of softwood species Should benefit White pine Hemlock Southern species Pitch pine No change Japanese larch? Norway spruce Probably gone? Jack pine Red pine White spruce Red spruce Black spruce Fir Larch? Cedar

26 P.E.I. Forest Volume (2000) softwood species 6% 2% 29% white pine/hemlock fir spruces larch/cedar 63%

27 Caveat given our assumptions and the inherent limitations of a macro-scale, multiple -species modelling approach, in addition to the intra-model limitations as well as input data errors, we predict that species x will "potentially" disappear from the United States. Remember what we lose, our friendly northerly neighbor, Canada gains!

28 FIA current

29 Scenarios

30 Average Scenario

31 What do we do?

32 Approach 1

33 Approach 2 Be Proactive The New Forest Policy should include a section on Climate change Climate change should be considered in all future activities and programs of the Forestry Division and other government agencies dealing with trees In field operations favour the likely winners and keep mixes.

34 Approach 2 short term specifics See what can be learned from tests established over the past 30 years by existing Tree Improvement Programs examine the species grown by the nursery and shift over the next decade or so to species better adapted to the changes as seed sources and other factors allow - establish tests of species that can replace the boreal species we are losing (Carolinian forest species?)

35 Not the end but a new beginning?