Geographic and Habitat Perspective
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1 Landbird Population and Habitat Objective-Setting in Oak and Conifer Forests of the Pacific Northwest: Contrasts in Process, Data, Assumptions, and Outcomes Bob Altman, American Bird Conservancy Erin Stockenberg, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Daniel Casey, American Bird Conservancy Susannah Casey, American Bird Conservancy Michael Green, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Barb Bresson, U.S. Forest Service/Bureau of Land Management
2 Funding U.S. Bureau of Land Management, Portland U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Migratory Birds Program, Portland Pacific Coast Joint Venture Neotropical Migratory Bird Conservation Act
3 Geographic and Habitat Perspective Green: Conifer Forest Brown: Oak Habitats
4 Project Study Areas Seattle Olympia Hamma Hamma = Conifer Forest (pilot) South Puget = Oak Habitats (BCR 5)
5 Process: 4 of the 5 Elements Build Bird-Habitat Models Focal Species and Bird Density Estimates Other parameters (e.g., elevation, patch size and proximity) Conduct Geospatial Analyses Analysis of independent layers vs a merged layer Calculate Population Estimates Bottom-up density-driven driven Apply Population Objectives Regionalized Continental Process Project Future Landscapes Data, land management projections, assumptions Conduct Optimization and Establish Habitat and Population Objectives Among species, habitats, places
6 Contrasts: Oak vs Conifer Watershed Conifer Forest Managed landscape (95% public) Contiguous distribution Independent GIS layers Age class/seral seral stage Hypothetical forest management future Good bird data Not spatially explicit Sub-ecoregion Oak Habitats Developed landscape (65% private) Very patchy distribution Merged GIS layers Habitat overstory conditions Projected future data, consultations with land managers Poor-Fair bird data Very spatially explicit
7 Focal Species Conservation directed towards a suite of species that sufficiently represent the range of desired habitat conditions in a habitat should also address the habitat needs of most if not all the other species in that habitat type (Lambeck 1997) Rationale Selection Process Assign to GIS classes Region Specific Pros and Cons Bird-Habitat Models
8 Conifer Focal Species Desired Habitat Condition Mid-Late Successional Closed Coniferous Canopy Mid-Late Successional Multi-layered layered Subcanopy Mid-Late Late-Successional Hardwood Subcanopy Mid-Late Late-Successional Complex Understory Early-Mid Mid-Late Successional Shrub and Sapling Patches Early Successional Dense Shrub Layer VASW and OSFL?? Hermit Warbler Varied Thrush Focal Species Pacific-slope Flycatcher Winter Wren Swainson s Thrush Orange-crowned Warbler Bird-Habitat Models
9 Oak Focal Species Desired Habitat Condition Large Trees with Large Cavities Focal Species Downy Woodpecker Large or Small Trees with Small Cavities Mature Overstory with Open Canopy and Edges Mature Overstory with Closed or Open Canopy Mature Overstory with Open Understory or Young Overstory with Open Understory Black-capped capped Chickadee Western Wood-pewee Purple Finch Chipping Sparrow Bird-Habitat Models
10 Bird Densities Importance Build database from extensive search Often won t t have site-specific specific data in-house reports, theses, dissertations BBC e.g., PSFL e.g., oak data sheets Include many parameters assists in all aspects of model development (elevation, habitat type, age and condition) Bird-Habitat Models
11 Other Model Parameters Elevation (oak=no; conifer = yes) All = WIWR >500 m = VATH <1500 m = OCWA, HEWA <1250 m = SWTH, PSFL Patch Size and connectivity Conifer = will do Oak = rule sets Habitat Condition/Quality Productivity/Vital Rates Other Factors? Bird-Habitat Models
12 Oak Patch Analyses
13 GIS Layers Comparison Conifer Forest ONF TRI - local 4 forest types 6 age classes IVMP - regional 3 forest types 1-44 age classes ReGap - regional 6 forest types 0 age classes WA Land ownership Oak Habitats WDNR Oak-Prairie - local 4 oak types W. WA Re-Gap - regional 1 oak type WA Land ownership CLC Futures GIS Analysis
14 Population Estimates Comparison: Hamma Hamma Watershed (USFS) ONF TRI IVMP WA REGAP VATH 5,762 6,319 3,370 PSFL 11,295 11,436 8,285 Population Estimates
15 Population Objectives Continental Population Objectives (ideal) Regional/Local Population Objectives (reality) Role of ideal objective?? habitat capacity (and perhaps other factors) ultimately determines real objective Do we need regional ideal objectives? Oak no?.habitat losses likely to exceed gains so real objective is what habitat remains Population Objectives
16 Preliminary (Ideal) Population Objective Potential value of Regional preliminary population objective Decision-making factor where flexibility and variable capacity exist (e.g., conifer forest successional stages) How determined modified national process PSFL example Regional (BCR, Physio trends) and Local BBS trend maps Issues degree of use of the habitat, areas with low sample size
17 Pacific-Slope Flycatcher Population Trends Legend BBS Trend Less than to to to +1.5 Greater than Kilometers Miles Data Sources: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey Trend Information to Associate with Smoothed Grid USGS Physionomic Strata, 2004 E Alaska British Columbia Washington Oregon California Pacific-slope Flycatcher Population Trends Cont BCR NPR AK BC SPR CAS WA OR BCR CF BCR
18 Alaska Draft Preliminary Population Objectives Pacific-Slope Flycatcher Population Objectives Legend Population Objectives Double Population Increase Population 50% Maintain Population Kilometers Miles Data Sources: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey Trend Information to Associate with Smoothed Grid USGS Physionomic Strata, 2004 E British Columbia Washington Oregon California
19 Regional/Local Preliminary Population Objectives: Conifer Focal Species in W. WA Double Orange-crowned Warbler Increase 50% Pacific-slope Flycatcher Varied Thrush Maintain Winter Wren Hermit Warbler Swainson s Thrush
20 Pacific-slope Flycatcher: Current Population and Objective Forest Type and Age Class Hectares Bird Density (Pairs/ha) Population (# indiv) Population Target Birds Needed WH WH (8) WH , (9) WH (10) WH , (6) 199 2, ,166 11,293 16,939 5,646
21 Translating the Population Objective into Habitat How can we get more birds? Natural Succession Management Options Habitat Management Thinning 100% of young forest (41-60 years) Losses in early years of thin negated by gains in later years Harvest 10% of mature forest (61-80 years)
22 Natural Succession (30 yrs) + Management Gain = 1,436 birds Still 4,210 birds short of the 5,646 needed to increase population by 50% Percent Population Gain = 25%
23 Future Population (30 years) with Natural Succession and Management (Thin and Harvest) Hectares (old) Hectares (new) Bird Density (# pairs /ha) Population (# indiv) Birds Short WH WH (8) 432 WH , (9) 802 WH , (10) 3,203 WH ,746 3, (6) 8,292 5,956 7,177 12,729 4,210 Current Population = 11,293 Gain = 1,436 birds
24 Pacific-slope Flycatcher: Habitat and Population Objective -1 In the next 30 years, increase suitable habitat by 1,221 ha through natural succession of all forest except 100% thinning of WH years, and 10% harvest of WH years resulting in a population increase of 1,436 birds or a 25% increase
25 Pacific-slope Flycatcher: Comments on Outcomes Not all of watershed The objective is for larger-scales Just one species, not optimized for other species or other management
26 Oak Example: GIS Layer Habitat Conditions Oak Dominant >25% canopy cover oak and <25% conifer Oak-Conifer Both oak and conifer >25% canopy cover Scattered Oak (Savannah) 5-25% canopy cover with >50% oak Urban Oak >10% canopy cover of oak in urban setting GIS Analysis
27 Oak Example: Three Sites Fort Lewis Military Installation Large (2,435 ha oak) Federal public land managed for oak Scatter Creek Wildlife Management Area Small (67 ha oak) State public land managed for oak Scatter Creek Corridor Moderate size (631 ha oak) Private with little to no management for oak
28 Predicting the Future for Oaks in the South Puget Sound Projecting change. Data from Futures Analyses of Pierce County (habitat loss) Consultation and professional judgment -of land managers, biologists, ecologists
29 Oak: Future Scenarios Habitat Loss Development Degradation Fragmentation Habitat Change (affects bird densities) Restoration Succession (+ and -) No Habitat Gain (?? global warming)
30 Oak Habitat Futures: Consultation 1 Site Development Habitat Loss (%) Degradation Fragmentation Fort Lewis 1 5? Scatter Creek WMA Scatter Creek private 0 15? 2 15? Development: pavement, houses, etc. Degradation: conifer-dominated to gone Fragmentation: from development and degradation losses
31 Oak Habitat Futures: Consultation 2 Site Habitat Change (%) Restoration Succession (+) Succession (-)( Fort Lewis Scatter Creek WMA Scatter Creek private Restoration: change from oak-conifer to oak-dominated Succession (+): change from younger oak to older oak Succession (-): change from oak-dominated to oak-conifer
32 Oak Example: Habitat Objectives Habitat losses likely to exceed gains. so ideal bird population objective may be irrelevant example habitat objective might be to simply protect and restore X% of oak-conifer to oak dominant, recognizing habitat losses and degradation that will occur
33 Oak Focal Species: Current and Future (+( or -) Populations (# indivds) Site Fort Lewis BCCH DOWO WEWP ,496 1,571 PUFI CHSP 1,564 1,643 Scatter Creek WMA Scatter Creek private
34 Final Thoughts. Lots of Issues, Assumptions etc. More effort on Bird Density Estimates Role of Preliminary Population Objectives? Process Variations in Developed/Developing Landscapes Application of Futures Analyses and Manager Consultations
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