The new world of energy And how to prepare it Isabelle MORETTI, Engie Scientific Director
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1 The new world of energy And how to prepare it Isabelle MORETTI, Engie Scientific Director Athens May 2018 Engie Research A GLOBAL AND DIVERSIFIED FOOTPRINT* ENGIE ID card 66.6 billion OF REVENUES IN ,350 emp rev.: 4.7 billion 11.7 GW installed** North America ACTIVITIES IN 70 COUNTRIES 133,770 emp rev.: 52.7 billion 44.7 GW installed** Europe*** 153,090 EMPLOYEES ACCROSS THE WORLD 1,380 emp rev.: 0.5 billion 26.3 GW installed** GW OF INSTALLED POWER PRODUCTION CAPACITY 3,130 emp rev.: 2.9 billion 7.5 GW installed** Asia * Figures as of 31 December 2016 ** Installed capacity at 100% *** Including Turquey **** Including Mexico 6,235 emp rev.: 3.9 billion 17.2 GW installed**** Latin America 400 emp rev.: 0.3 billion 1.4 GW installed** Africa Middle East 3,825 emp rev.: 1.6 billion 3.9 GW installed** Oceania 2 1
2 The world of energy: today consumption o The facts: 2016: 80% = oil + gas + Coal o But/and : 2015 growth wind : +17%, Solar + 28% Coal Gas Renewable (no hydro) consumption per region (Million tonnes oil equivalent) => Investments are going to the renewable Oil 3 Energy forecast: Growth and decrease by sources => In barrels, or toe, the oil and gas production will continue to grow (around 2 Mb/day, twice its 10-year average) The price (Brent): 65 +/- 8 $ for the last year PB prevision horizon 2035 Fossil shares decrease: 25% each (primary energy) Renewable increase: 10% Other analysts expect a faster decrease of coal and stronger increase of renewables Oil price over the last 5 years 00/00/
3 Energy Price Wind and solar are now cheap They may compete with fossil fuels even without tax incentives PV price evolution Pay back time for a solar farm in sunny area (like North Chile) could be as low as 7 years. 08/2016 auction in Chile wind 29$ In Engie we consider that the energy is now cheap and could remain cheap. Other points that change the game: sun, wind, among others, are Decarbonized and Decentralized, big installations are not necessary, a lot of citizens may produce there own electricity => the peer to peer of electron is starting, Digitalization is mandatory 5 The 3D The new energy world is characterized by decarbonization, decentralization and digitalization (the 3 D ). DECARBONIZATION Worldwide renewable energies: annual additional capacity to grow by +70% in 2030 vs 2015 DECENTRALIZATION Decentralized solutions to more than double by 2030 DIGITALIZATION Digital disrupts energy systems and improves customer offers Engie s ambition TO BE THE WORLD LEADER IN ENERGY TRANSITION 11/05/
4 The ongoing ruptures6 grandes ruptures Smaller and decentralized systems The stakeholders are interested by a larger offer of energy sources Price environnement Scale / 1000 Gas and electricity grids are no longer independent, storage becomes key Electrolyseur New aternatives: ENR / H2 biogas / Mobility, Biomass/ Digital: clients are no longer passive, they want to control and to optimize. water O 2 H 2 Electricity H 2 CH 4 Méthane heat Fuel Cell C 2 H 6 O Ethanol 11/05/ RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES We manage pilot projects together with partners to co-develop and test new technology based solutions H 2 in gas grid Ghryd H 2 in vehicles Hyway Decentralized Energy System for Islands REIDS Biogas Local Liquefaction Lillibox Dunkerque Grenoble Singapore France Organic PV and smart Electric Vehicle charge H 2 to store wind Mhyrabel Storage (Batteries) Drogenbos Small LNG LNG Lift Bruxelles Lorraine Brussels Global 8 4
5 To conclude: Gas/elec - Energy System Convergence Future Networks will work together SMART Integrated Flexible The industry s biggest challenge since the last transformation Similarity: solar and wind farms extend the number of countries that are now producer (it extend even the stakeholder since individual consumer may be producer); it is the same for the biogas, countries without HC resource may generate biogas. 9 Thanks for your attention Disclaimer The information contained herein, including any expression of opinion, and any information which accompanies this presentation or which is supplied subsequently, has been obtained from or is based upon sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified and is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness, although ENGIE and believes it to be fair and not misleading. ENGIE is not, and will not be, responsible for ascertaining whether all risks associated with the transactions contemplated herein have been identified or disclosed, nor for providing advice to you as to whether you should enter into the transaction or on the documentation to be used for the transaction or on the merits of purchasing any investment or otherwise. You must make your own assessment of the transaction and the risks and benefits associated with it and of all the matters referred to in the preceding sentence. Neither ENGIE nor any of its branches, officers or employees make any representation as to, or assumes any responsibility or liability for, the merits, suitability, expected or projected success, profitability, performance or benefit of any such transaction. ENGIE recommends you enter into transactions only after having considered, with the assistance of external advisors, without reliance upon ENGIE, the specific risks of any transaction, including but not exclusively, the legal, tax and accounting implications so as to enable you to appraise and understand the financial and legal terms of such transaction and to enter into such transaction in reliance on your own judgment and that of your advisers and not on any views expressed by ENGIE. The opinions set out in this document are purely indicative and are subject to the final expression of the terms of a specific transaction as detailed in a definitive agreement. This presentation was prepared exclusively for your benefit and your internal use. Neither the presentation nor any of its contents may be disclosed to, reproduced or used or relied upon by, any other person or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of ENGIE. The simulations presented in this document result from the estimations of ENGIE at a given moment, in function of the parameters which ENGIE has selected, and are thus subject to market variations. The prices estimated in this manner have only an indicative value and do not constitute in any manner a commitment from ENGIE. 5
SECTION 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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