Weekly Cotton Market Review

Transcription

1 Mp_cn812 Weekly Cotton Market Review Cotton and Tobacco Program Cotton Market News Division 3275 Appling Road Memphis, TN Vol. 99 No. 17 November 24, 2017 Inside this Issue Market Overview Price Support Spot Quotations ICE Futures A Index Southeastern Textile Mill Report South Central Southwestern Western Cotton Ginnings Pima Quotations Cotton Market Reports Subscribe to this report Subscribe to all Cotton Market reports Average quotations were 97 points higher than the previous week, according to the USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service s Cotton and Tobacco Program. Quotations for the base quality of cotton (color 41, leaf 4, staple 34, mike 35-3 and 43-49, strength , uniformity ) in the seven designated markets averaged 8.37 cents per pound for the week ending Thursday, November 23, The weekly average was up from 7.40 last week, but down from cents reported the corresponding period a year ago. Daily average quotations ranged from a low of 7.57 cents Friday, November 17 to a high of 8.9 cents Wednesday, November 22. Spot transactions reported in the Daily Spot Cotton Quotations for the week ended November 23 totaled 98,441 bales. This compares to 57,873 bales reported last week and 55,595 spot transactions reported the corresponding week a year ago. Total spot transactions for the season were 33,25 bales compared to 301,495 bales the corresponding week a year ago. The ICE March settlement prices ended the week at cents, compared to 9.18 cents last week. Average Prices Date SE ND SD ET-OK WT DSW SJV 7-MKT AVG 17-Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov - Holiday - Holiday - Holiday - Holiday Average Prices Date SE ND SD ET-OK WT DSW SJV 7-MKT AVG 17-Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov - Holiday - Holiday - Holiday - Holiday Futures Settlement Far Eastern A Index 1/ Date Dec-17 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Current 17-Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov - Holiday - Holiday - Holiday Spot Transactions Date SE ND SD ET-OK WT DSW SJV PIMA 17-Nov ,48 14, Nov ,11 11, Nov ,32 19, Nov 1,128 2, ,55 8, Nov Weekly Totals 2,023 2, ,114 53, Sources: USDA, AMS, Cotton and Tobacco Program, 1/ Cotlook

2 Southeastern Markets Regional Summary Danny Pino Macon, GA Spot cotton trading was active. Supplies and producer offerings were moderate. Demand was good. Average local spot prices were higher. Trading of CCC-loan equities was inactive. Harvest activity advanced without interruption across the lower Southeast as partly cloudy conditions prevailed over Alabama, the Florida panhandle, and Georgia during the period. Cold and dry conditions, ideal for fieldwork, were observed as a front pushed across the region over the weekend raising daytime high temperatures into the low to mid-0s. Stalks were shredded and fields were prepared for spring planting. Fieldwork advanced at a slower pace in the upper Southeast as light scattered rainfall was observed in portions of North Carolina and Virginia during the period. Rainfall totals generally measured less than one-tenth of an inch, but the overcast and damp conditions delayed harvest activity. Producers rushed to complete fieldwork in areas where dry conditions allowed ahead of potential wet weather. In the lower Southeast, gins operated at capacity and processed backlogs of modules. In the Carolinas, reports indicated many gins were not operating at capacity due to a shortage of available workers. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service s Crop Progress report released November 20, cotton harvested reached 85 percent in Virginia, 84 in North Carolina, 82 in South Carolina, 78 in Georgia, and 73 percent harvested in Alabama. Textile Mill Domestic mill buyers inquired for a moderate volume of color 41, leaf 4, and staple 34 for January through October 2018 delivery. No sales were reported. Mill buyer immediate-to-nearby interest focused on receiving deliveries of previously booked 2017-crop cotton from domestic cotton shippers. Reports indicated yarn demand was strong and some mills planned to continue operations through the Thanksgiving holiday. Demand through export channels was moderate to good. Representatives for mills in Pakistan inquired for a moderate volume of color 41, leaf 4, and staple 3 for nearby shipment. Agents throughout the Far East also inquired for discounted styles of low micronaire cotton out of West Texas. Trading Even-running lots containing color 31, leaf mostly 3, staple 3 and 37, mike 43-49, strength 30-33, and uniformity sold for to cents per pound, FOB car/truck (Rule 5, compression charges paid). A moderate volume of color 31 and 41, leaf mostly 3 and 4, staple 3-38, mike 43-49, strength 29-31, and uniformity sold for around cents, same terms as above. A light volume of color 31 and 41, leaf 3 and 4, staple 3 and 37, mike 49-52, strength 32-34, and uniformity sold for around cents, same terms as above. A moderate volume of color 31 and 41, leaf mostly 3 and 4, staple 34 and longer, mike 37-49, strength 27-29, and uniformity sold for around 375 points on ICE March futures, FOB car/truck, Georgia terms (Rule 5, compression charges paid, 30 days free storage). 2

3 Photos Courtesy of: Danny Pino 3

4 South Central Markets Regional Summary Jeff Carnahan Memphis, TN North Delta Spot cotton trading was moderate. Supplies of available cotton were light. Demand was moderate. Average local spot prices were higher. Trading of CCC-loan equities was inactive. No forward contracting was reported. Cotton was being delivered to fulfill contracts. Cold, cloudy weather dominated during the week. Daytime temperatures were in the 50s and 0s. Overnight lows were in the 20s and 30s. Isolated showers continued to hinder harvesting of late-planted fields and producers were concerned about quality issues. Some fields were harvested and stalks were shredded. Ginning continued without interruption, since most gins were maintaining large backlogs of modules on their yards. Several smaller gins completed annual pressing operations. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service s Crop Progress report released November 20, harvesting in Arkansas was 98 percent completed, 94 in Missouri, and 81 percent in Tennessee. South Delta Spot cotton trading was moderate. Supplies of available cotton were light. Demand was moderate. Average local spot prices were higher. Trading of CCC-loan equities was inactive. No forward contracting was reported. Cotton was being delivered to fulfill contracts. Clear, cold weather prevailed during the week. A storm front brought freezing temperatures during the week. Daytime temperatures were in the 50s. Overnight lows were in the 20s and 30s. Harvesting activities were delayed in some late-planted fields; producers were concerned about the condition of cotton still in the field. Producers reported yields from 900 to 1,300 pounds per acre. Ginning progressed slowly in gins that were still operating. A number of gins completed annual pressing operations. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service s Crop Progress report released November 20, the crop had been 93 percent harvested in Mississippi. Trading North Delta A moderate volume of mixed lots, color 51 and better, leaf 5 and better, staple 34 and longer, mike 37-52, strength 27-33, and uniformity traded at around 150 points off ICE March 2018 futures, FOB car/truck (Rule 5, compression charges paid). South Delta A light volume of mixed lots, color 31 and better, leaf 3 and better, staple 38 and longer, mike 37-49, strength 29-34, and uniformity traded at around 300 points on ICE March 2018 futures, FOB car/truck (Rule 5, compression charges paid). A light volume of mixed lots, color 41 and better, leaf 5 and better, staple 3 and longer, mike 37-52, strength 27-33, and uniformity traded at around 100 points on ICE March 2018 futures, same terms as above. 4

5 Southwestern Markets Regional Summary Jane Byers-Angle Lubbock, TX East Texas Spot cotton trading was active. Supplies were moderate. Producer offerings were light. Demand was very good. Average local spot prices were steady. Trading of CCC-loan equities was active. Domestic and foreign inquiries were moderate. Interest was best from India, Pakistan, and Turkey. Ginning was winding down in south and east Texas. Weather conditions allowed harvesting to expand in Kansas and Oklahoma. Sources estimated approximately 35 percent of the crop was off the stalk in Kansas. Most Kansas gins were operating with the exception of one. The Abilene Classing Office estimated between 170,000 to 200,000 bales were expected from Kansas. All gins were operating in Oklahoma. The Oklahoma crop has the potential to produce an estimated 1 million bales. Local industry representatives estimated 40 to 50 percent of the crop was harvested. Sources reported harvesting progress was slow, but steady due to increased acreage for harvest and reliance on custom harvesters. Most gins will operate through Thanksgiving Day. West Texas Spot cotton trading was active. Supplies and producer offerings were heavy. Demand was very good. Average local spot prices were firm. No forward contracting or domestic mill activity was reported. Trading of CCC-loan equities was slow. Foreign inquiries were good and for low micronaire cotton. Interest was best from India, Pakistan, and Turkey. High humidity and foggy conditions slowed harvesting early in the reporting period. A hard frost was received early in the period, which most producers were waiting for. Ideal weather mid-week allowed harvesting to gain momentum. Harvesting went on late into the night. Local sources estimated harvesting to be around 30 to 40 percent completed. Ginning continued; a few gins were temporarily idle, having processed all of the modules on their yards. Many gins will operate on Thanksgiving Day. Cottonseed prices were reported at $120 to $15 per ton. Trading East Texas In Texas, a moderate volume of mostly color 31 and better, leaf 3 and better, staple 33-35, mike 42-49, strength 2-32, and uniformity sold for around 4.00 cents per pound, FOB warehouse (compression charges not paid). A moderate volume of color 51 and better, leaf 3 and better, staple 35-38, mike 4-53, strength averaging 29.2, and uniformity averaging 81.4 sold for around 5.00 cents, same terms as above. A light volume of color 31 and 32, leaf 3 and 4, staple mostly 34, mike averaging 48.9, strength averaging 32.0, and uniformity averaging 81.9 sold for around 2.00 cents, same terms as above. A light volume of color 41 and 51, leaf 4-, staple 31-33, mike averaging 50.2, strength averaging 28.3, and uniformity averaging 79.9 sold for around 0.00 cents, same terms as above. In Oklahoma, a heavy volume of mostly color 21 and 31, leaf 3 and better, staple 37 and longer, mike 35-44, strength averaging 30.7, and uniformity averaging 81.1 sold for around cents per pound, FOB car/truck (compression charges not paid). A moderate volume of mostly color 31, leaf 4 and better, staple 3 and longer, mike averaging 45.0, strength averaging 30.5, and uniformity averaging 81.5 sold for around cents, same terms as above. A moderate volume of mostly color 21, leaf 3 and 4, staple 35-37, mike averaging 34.5, strength averaging 28.4, uniformity averaging 79.0, with 25 percent bark sold for around 7.75 cents, same terms as above. A heavy volume of CCC-loan equities traded for cents. 5

6 Southwestern Markets Regional Summary Jane Byers-Angle Lubbock, TX Trading West Texas A moderate volume of color mostly 21 and better, leaf 3 and better, staple 37 and 38, mike 35-45, strength averaging 30.0, and uniformity averaging 80.0 sold for to cents per pound, FOB car/truck (compression charges not paid). A moderate volume of color 31, leaf 3 and better, mostly 3 and 37, mike averaging 43.7, strength averaging 30.2, and uniformity averaging 80.1 sold for around cents, same term as above. A moderate volume of mixed quality lots of mostly color 31 and better, leaf 3 and better, staple 34 and 35, mike 35-42, strength averaging 28.5, and uniformity averaging 80.0 sold for 7.25 to 9.00 cents, same terms as above. A moderate volume of mostly color 31 and better, leaf 3 and better, staple 35 and longer, mike averaging 32.5, strength averaging 29.9, and uniformity averaging 79.5 sold for 2.00 to 4.50 cents, same terms as above. A moderate volume of CCC-loan equities traded for cents. Photos Courtesy of: Jane Byers-Angle

7 Western Markets Regional Summary Maria Townsend Visalia, CA Desert Southwest (DSW) Spot cotton trading was slow. Supplies were light. Demand was moderate. Producers delivered 2017-crop cotton to the coop, merchant marketing pools, or into the CCC loan program. Average local prices were higher. No domestic mill activity was reported. Foreign mill inquiries were moderate. Mild weather conditions advanced harvesting and ginning in Arizona. Harvesting was reported to be percent completed. Foggy conditions in the Safford Valley slowed harvesting early in the reporting period. Ginning neared completion in Yuma, Arizona. All other Arizona gins were operating at capacity. Most gins planned on closing Thursday during the day for Thanksgiving, but some were scheduled to operate Thursday night. Field activity consisted of shredding stalks and preparing fields for winter plantings. Excellent weather conditions advanced harvesting and ginning in New Mexico and El Paso, Texas. Temperatures were mostly in the 0s and 70s. Some modules were stored in fields or transported to gin yards. Harvesting gained momentum. Sources estimated 40 percent of the crop was harvested in New Mexico and nearly 50 percent in El Paso, Texas. Cottonseed sales were active in New Mexico and El Paso, Texas, with most seed going to local dairies. Cottonseed prices were $175 to $190 per ton. San Joaquin Valley (SJV) Spot cotton trading was slow. Supplies were light. Demand was moderate. Producers delivered 2017-crop cotton to the coop, merchant marketing pools, or into the CCC loan program. Average local spot prices were higher. No forward contracting or domestic mill activity was reported. Foreign mill inquiries were slow. Interest was best for saw-ginned Acala. Daytime temperatures were mostly in the high 0s to low 70s. Foggy conditions and traces of moisture was received early in the period. Snowfall was received in elevations over 8,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada Mountain range. Harvesting was virtually completed. Ginning continued uninterrupted. Producers shredded stalks and readied fields for winter plantings. American Pima (AP) Spot cotton trading was inactive. Supplies and demand were moderate. Average local spot prices were steady. No forward contracting or domestic mill activity was reported. Foreign mill inquiries were moderate. Interest was best from China. Shippers price ideas were higher. Temperatures were in the 70s to 80s in Arizona, California, New Mexico, and El Paso, Texas. Harvesting continued in Arizona, New Mexico, and El Paso, Texas. No rainfall was recorded in the period. Harvesting neared completion in Arizona and California. Ginning gained momentum. Cottonseed prices were reported at $10 per ton for New Mexico and El Paso, Texas. Trading Desert Southwest A light volume of color 11, leaf 1and 2, and mostly staple 38 and longer, mike averaging 38.0, strength averaging 31.0, and uniformity averaging 80.2 sold for around cents per pound, uncompressed, FOB warehouse. San Joaquin Valley A light volume of color 31 and better, leaf 3 and better, and staple 3 and longer was sold for around cents per pound, UD free, FOB warehouse. No trading activity was reported. American Pima 7

8 2017 Crop Quality Southeast Quality Summary 2017-Crop Region Classing Office Bales Color Grade Leaf Grade Trash Mike Staple Strength Uniformity Number of Gins Southeast Florence 81, Macon 1,31, Memphis 124, Southeast 2,123, South Central Quality Summary 2017-Crop Region Classing Office Bales Color Grade Leaf Grade Trash Mike Staple Strength Uniformity Number Of Gins South Central Dumas 87, Memphis 1,407, Rayville 337, South Central 2,13, Southwest Quality Summary 2017-Crop Region Classing Office Bales Color Grade Leaf Grade Trash Mike Staple Strength Uniformity Number Of Gins Southwest Abilene 339, Corpus Christi 1,98, Lamesa 503, Lubbock 930, Southwest 3,74, Far West and American Pima Quality Summary 2017-Crop Color Grade Leaf Grade Trash Mike Staple Strength Uniformity Region Classing Office Bales Far West Visalia 224, Far West 224, PIMA - Far West Visalia 232, Number Of Gins United States Upland United States Pima Source: USDA, AMS, Cotton and Tobacco Program For complete Quality reports click here. United States Quality Summary 2017-Crop 8,725, ,

9 Cotton Ginnings For Complete Cotton Ginnings report click here. 9

10 World market prices for upland cotton, in cents per pound, in effect from 12:01 a.m., EDT, Friday through midnight, EDT, Thursday Oct Oct 27 Nov Nov Nov 20-2 Nov Nov Adjusted world price 1/ Course count adjustment Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP) Fine count adjustment Fine count adjustment / Color 41, leaf 4, staple 34, mike 35-3 & 43-49, strength readings of grams per tex, length uniformity of percent. Source: Farm Service Agency, USDA. Description Outstanding sales Exports Total export commitments Through November 17, 201 Through November 1, 2017 Week Mkt. Year Week - 4,197, ,400 2,454,700 85,00 -,52,400 - New sales 33,000-37,500 - Buy-backs and cancellations 81,200-19,500 - Net sales Sales next marketing year , ,000 44, ,700 43, Mkt. Year 9,39,00 Net sales of 357,000 running bales for 2017/2018 were down 30 percent from the previous week, but up 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Pakistan (109,900 RB), Turkey (7,900 RB), Vietnam (50,700 RB, including 1,00 RB switched from Taiwan), Mexico (2,100 RB), and Thailand (22,400 RB). Reductions were reported for Malaysia (,000 RB). For 2018/2019, net sales of 43,100 RB were reported for China (24,200 RB), Japan (10,300 RB), Mexico (,400 RB), and Pakistan (2,200 RB). Exports of 85,00 RB--a marketing-year low--were down 9 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were reported to Mexico (18,000 RB), China (17,800 RB), Vietnam (9,300 RB), Indonesia (,00 RB), and Taiwan (5,400 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 17,500 RB for 2017/2018 were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Peru (4,100 RB), India (3,700 RB), Vietnam (3,100 RB), and China (2,900 RB, including decreases of 100 RB). Exports of 11,500 RB--a marketing-year high--were up 80 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (4,500 RB), Vietnam (2,100 RB), Pakistan (1,700 RB), and India (1,00 RB). Optional Origin Sales: The current optional origin outstanding balance of 1,500 RB is for Indonesia. Marketing Years 7,292,100 2,077,500 Exports for Own Account: New exports for own account totaling 3,000 RB were reported to China (1,100 RB) and Vietnam (1,900 RB). Exports to Vietnam (1,800 RB), China (1,500 RB), Indonesia (1,400 RB), and Pakistan (400 RB), were applied to new or outstanding sales. Decreases of 1,200 RB were reported for Indonesia. The current outstanding balance of 59,200 RB is for Indonesia (37,500 RB), Taiwan (11,00 RB), India (3,800 RB), Vietnam (3,100 RB), China (1,500 RB), South Korea (1,100 RB), Bangladesh (500 RB), and Pakistan (100 RB) ,500 Source: Export Sales Reporting Division, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA. NOTE: Data may not add due to rounding. November 23,

11 Number of Bales in Certificated Stocks Delivery Points Stocks as of Awaiting Review Non-Rain Grown Cotton Dallas/FT. Worth, TX Galveston, TX 21, Greenville, SC Houston, TX 7, Memphis, TN 18, Total 47, Spot quotations are in cents per pound for cotton equal to the Official Standards, net weight, in mixed lots, compressed, FOB car/truck. SOUTHEAST NORTH DELTA SOUTH DELTA DESERT SOUTHWEST Staple EAST TEXAS-OKLAHOMA WEST TEXAS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY Staple MIKE DIFFERENCES - POINTS PER POUND SOUTH- NORTH SOUTH E. TX WEST DESERT SJ EAST DELTA DELTA OK Mike Ranges TEXAS SW VALLEY AVG & Below Base Base & Above STRENGTH DIFFERENCES UNIFORMITY DIFFERENCES SOUTH- NORTH SOUTH E. TX Grams WEST DESERT SJ SOUTH- NORTH SOUTH E. TX Unit WEST DESERT SJ EAST DELTA DELTA OK per tex TEXAS SW VALLEY AVG. EAST DELTA DELTA OK TEXAS SW VALLEY AVG & below Base Base & above & above November 23,

12 American Pima quotations are for cotton equal to the Official Standards, net weight, in mixed lots, UD Free, FOB warehouse. 1/ AMERICAN PIMA SPOT QUOTATIONS Color Leaf Staple The current Pima spot quotations represent prices from local sales, export sales, and offerings last reported on November 14, / Pima spot quotations for color-leaf-staple combinations not quoted will be included as sales of those qualities which are reported. Range 2 & Below & Above & Below (Grams per Tex) Range & Above Mike Strength Diff Diff Extraneous Matter Level Prep Diff Other November 23,