Follow the conversation on Twitter and #Power4Africa

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Eugenia Snow
6 years ago
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1 The Power of the Mine A Transformative Opportunity for Sub-Saharan Africa Follow the conversation on Twitter and #Power4Africa

Natural Gas reserves: 329 tcf Currently, about 1-2 GW of new

2 Africa s power deficit is crippling despite huge energy resources Hydro potential: 400GW Geothermal potential: 16GW Natural Gas reserves: 329 tcf Currently, about 1-2 GW of new installed capacity deployed a year. Africa needs 6-7 GW a year 2

3 Can mines as anchor consumers be part of the solution? 3

4 Mining is a key and well-established industry Million Mining exports represents over 20% of exports in 18 countries and over 40% in 14 countries. Mining fiscal revenues over 20% in total revenues in Botswana, DRC, and Guinea 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Latin America Africa Canada Australia United States Pacific region Investment in mining accounted for $3.1 billion between and will go up to $75 billion in SSA in pipeline projects

Copper (t) Refining Platinum Group Metals (oz) Zinc (t) Smelting Iron

5 Power needs depend on the type of mineral and level of processing Power requirements Bauxite/Aluminum (t) Processing Nickel (t) Cobalt (t) Copper (t) Refining Platinum Group Metals (oz) Zinc (t) Smelting Iron Ore/Steel (t) MWh Basic and intermediate Smelting Refining Crushing 5

6 Mining demand for power can be up to 23 GW in 2020 GW ~ 23 GW CAGR=5.6% ~ 15 GW 10.3 CAGR=5.5% 5.2 ~ 8 GW Pre Note: CAGR=Compound Annual Growth Rate South Africa South Africa = 3.5% SSA, excluding South Africa = 9.2% SSA, excluding South Africa Highest increase in power demand Iron Ore and PGM Refining and Smelting 6

7 Mining demand for power can be overwhelming in a few countries GWh Mining and residential demand Mining and nonmining (residential, commercial, industrial) demand 250 Liberia 326% x Guinea Mozambique 135% 294% 150 Sierra Leone 97% x Niger 84% Namibia 74% 50 Zambia 64% - Residential Mining Residential Mining * *If all SSA s population had access to electricity by 2020 with triple level of today s consumption Congo, Dem. Rep. of 52% Congo, Rep. of the 50% Cameroon 48% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% Mining demand as % of total non-mining demand 7

GW Many models of power sourcing by mines 2 1 Intermediate 3 Self-supply Self-supply + Social Responsabi lity Self-supply + sell to the grid Grid supply + self supply backup Mines sell

8 GW Many models of power sourcing by mines 2 1 Intermediate 3 Self-supply Self-supply + Social Responsabi lity Self-supply + sell to the grid Grid supply + self supply backup Mines sell collectively to grid Mines invest in grid Mines serve as anchor demand for IPP Grid supply 16 Energy requirements Self-supply Intermediate arrangements Grid supply 8

Self supply is a loss for all Mines: High cost of electricity Loss of

investments in selfsupply 2012 $1.3b 2020 up to $3.

opportunities of economies of scale for large investments Country: Reducing

9 Self supply is a loss for all Mines: High cost of electricity Loss of competitiveness Grid-connected customers No electricity Mine generation investments in selfsupply 2012 $1.3b 2020 up to $3.3b Electricity utility: Loss of large customers Loss of steady revenue Loss of opportunities of economies of scale for large investments Country: Reducing possibilities for access to electricity Drop in exports and tax revenues Negative impact on GDP, and fewer jobs No electricity 9

10 Mining demand for power can unlock clean energy in grid arrangements MW MW Source of power generation on grid-based arrangements 14,000 Including South Africa 6,000 Excluding South Africa 12,000 5,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Coal Gas Hydro Oil Coal Gas Hydro Oil

c/kwh Mining demand for power can unlock clean energy in self-supply arrangements - Guinea Five gold mines in North East Guinea: Siguiri, Kiniero, Lefa, Tri-K, and Kouroussa Three scenarios: Mines

11 c/kwh Mining demand for power can unlock clean energy in self-supply arrangements - Guinea Five gold mines in North East Guinea: Siguiri, Kiniero, Lefa, Tri-K, and Kouroussa Three scenarios: Mines self-supply (diesel) Shared 150MW hydropower plant (HPP) among mines Shared 300MW HPP plant also serves neighboring communities Siguiri and Kankan Levelized costs per kwh Mines Self-supply Shared hydro plant - Mines supply Shared hydro plant - Mines and towns supply Electrification for community 5% of total population. Higher capital costs but lower running costs and economies of scale: cost savings for mines around $640 million Project cost of $1.4 billion IPP opportunity 11

12 Commodity price volatility can destabilize mining demand for power US$ 10,000 9,000 Mineral Prices ,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Aluminum, $/mt, nominal$ Copper, $/mt, nominal$ Gold, $/toz, nominal$ Lead, $/mt, nominal$ Nickel, 10$/mt, nominal$ Silver, cents/toz, nominal$ Tin, cents/kg, nominal$ Zinc, $/mt, nominal$ Platinum, $/troz Iron ore, cfr spot $/dry mt 12

Policymakers can support an attractive enabling environment Strengthen power sector finances Strengthen regulatory mechanisms Transparent and efficient pricing Support the

13 Policymakers can support an attractive enabling environment Strengthen power sector finances Strengthen regulatory mechanisms Transparent and efficient pricing Support the operating environment for IPPs Mine-financed power projects and carefully crafted contracts Integrate mining demand in power sector planning Use regional platforms Source expertise 13

14 Future can be bright if we use this opportunity carefully 14

15 Thank You Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee Senior Economist 15

16 The Power of the Mine A Transformative Opportunity for Sub-Saharan Africa Follow the conversation on Twitter and #Power4Africa

THE POWER OF THE MINE A TRANSFORMATIVE OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

THE POWER OF THE MINE A TRANSFORMATIVE OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee, Zayra Romo, Gary McMahon Perrine Toledano, Peter Robinson SSA S POWER DEFICIT IS CRIPPLING DESPITE HUGE