Long Term Mitigation Scenarios For South Africa

Transcription

1 Long Term Mitigation Scenarios For South Africa Alison Hughes, Bruno Merven Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town 1 ERC

2 South African Energy System Source: Energy Digest Department of Energy, 29 2 ERC

3 Primary Energy Supply (net of exports) TPES 29: 6,55 PJ Gas 2% Biomass 7% Nuclear 2% Oil 19% Coal 7% % of Coal is exported 95% of Crude is imported, ~1% of oil products are imported 4% of gas is imported (this share is increasing) There is some export of electricity to the rest of the region 3 ERC

4 Final Energy Consumption in 29 Biomass 6% Gas 4% TFC 29: 314 PJ Electricity % Oil 33% Coal 32% Other 5% Agriculture 2% Commerce 8% Residential 17% 29 EB Transport 28% Industry 4% Most of Coal goes to industry with some use in residential and commercial Most Oil goes to transport with some use in Residential and Commercial Industry Consumes ~ 6%, Residential ~2% of Electricity, most of the rest goes to commercial 4 ERC

5 Structure of Existing Power System Elc Capacity in 29 (Total: 42 GW) OCGT 5.72% Hydro Nuclear 1% 4% Pumped Storage 4% Coal 85% Coal Dominated System, almost entirely owned by State-Owned Utility - Eskom Eskom also owns and runs the Transmission system Distribution is partly done by Municipalities 5 ERC

6 Existing Refining Capacity CTL Plant is owned by private company: Sasol Refineries owned by international oil companies 6 GTL plant owned by state-owned company: PetroSA ERC

7 Structure of the Economy Overall Economy Industry 3% AGRICULTUR E 3% ELECTRICITY 6% OTHER MANUFACTURIN G Water distribution 2% 3% VEHICLES & TRANSPORT EQ 6% Industry Shares Construction 7% Other mining 21% Coal mining 4% SERVICES 67% MACHINERY 5% METALS 1% NONMETALLIC MINERALS CHEMICALS 2% 1% FOOD 11% PETROLEUM REFINING 5% TEXTILES 3% WOOD & PAPER 5% Services 2/3 of GDP Industry Sector quite well diversified with mining, chemicals, metals and food making 5% of Value added. 7 ERC

8 SA compared to other countries (motivation for LTMS 23) Emissions per capita Emissions intensity t CO2-eq per person South Africa Deforestation etc Brazil China India OECD World tons CO2 / mill int'l $ South Africa Brazil China India OECD World Relative to the size of our population, emissions per capita are high Emissions-intensity due to dependency on coal and inefficient use of energy 8 ERC

9 LTMS Objectives Two sets of key objectives: Robust, broadly supported recommendations for a long-term national climate policy Develop a sound analytical basis for SA s negotiating position on post-212 Outcome Cabinet endorsed (28) peak, plateau and decline emissions trajectory Initiated a process to develop formal policy to adopt a legislative, regulatory and fiscal package 9 ERC

10 LTMS Process LTMS was a Cabinet-mandated process (26) Led by Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism Cabinet Memo Scenario Building Team Research LTMS Scenarios Document High Level Group Cabinet Approval Energy Non-Energy Economic effects process Agriculture, forestry, etc 1 ERC

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12 Emissions scenario-building process 1. Two basic scenarios: 1. Growth Without Constraints (business as usual / baseline) 2. Required by Science emissions reductions in line with requirement for global reduction of emissions 2. Modelling of mitigation options or wedges 3. Combination of wedges into several mitigation scenarios moderate, cheaper wedges into start now, and more ambitious wedges into scale up 4. Consideration of robustness of scenarios against possible global developments 12 ERC

13 Economic Growth 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Millions Population growth GDP growth GDP- varied growth Trendline of growth SBT Challenges 248 Sectoral growth and contribution to GDP 2% Industry Mining % Agriculture ERC % 8% 6% 4% Commerce other services GDP Chrome Platinum Non-M. Min. Iron and Steel Chemicals Wood Prod. Non-Ferrous Coal Manganese 2 Iron Ore Diamonds Copper Gold

14 SBT Challenges contd Household disaggregation (income and fuel) Rural / urban migration Electrification (rate and impact) Household income Energy intensity Increasing/decreasing Transport Road/rail Private/public Technology transfer Energy efficiency Sypply side technologies 14 ERC

15 Escalating CO2 tax R Electric vehicles w ith 3 nuclear, renewables 15 R 12 Renewables, extended 3 15 R Nuclear, extended R SWH subsidy -R 28 CCS 2 Mt R 72 Biofuel subsidy R Electric vehicles in GWC grid Biofuels R 67 Commercial efficiency 5 -R 23 R 524 Limit less eff vehicles R 4,44 Synfuels methane R 8 Manure management 1 5 -R 19 Aluminium 1 5 R 3 15 Improved vehicle All Medium 3 Hybrids 5 All Small Wedges efficiency Wedges R 269 R 1,987 Enteric fermentation 1 5 R 5 Subsidy for renewables R 1 Renewables with learning, extended 5 Industrial efficiency R R 15 5 R 346 ERC Nuclear R3 R 18 3 Renewables R 52 Residential efficiency R 198 Cleaner coal Fire control -R 5 -R 15 Waste management 5 Passenger modal shift 5 5 R 14 -R 1,131 Synfuels CCS 23 Mt Reduced tillage Afforestation R 24 R 39 Synfuels CCS 2 Mt R 476 Coal mine methane

16 Baseline and mitigation opportunities Aim: Baseline quantitatively defined in a transparent and scientific manner Criticism: The method of determining the 23 base year Estimate should be provided. It is understood that this was a projection from the 1994 data based on annual GDP growth 16 ERC

17 MAPS - Mitigation actions plans and scenarios Low carbon development plans Accelerate commitment to mitigation action in key developing countries by building a broad base of support among domestic stakeholders and a sound evidence base Collaboration between developing country researchers Brazil, Peru, Chile, Colombia Support government mandated stakeholder process Robust analysis and research exchange 17 ERC

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19 Overview Energy supply LTMS Objective LTMS Process Modelling Challenges Output 19 ERC

20 Process Stakeholder Process Scenario Building Team (SBT) - endorsed methods, advised on and endorsed inputs and all technical reports Government, Business, civil society Research Process Modelling teams energy, non-energy emissions; economic effects; impacts of climate change on SA 2 ERC

21 SA Energy Supply 23 Emissions intensity 7.2 (t CO2/capita).7 (kg CO2/2 US$ PPP) Electricity Natural gas 3% crude oil 14% Nuclear 2% 59% Coal 85% Renewabl es and waste 8% Liquid Fuels Coal 73% % Coal 51% TPES 21 ERC

22 Three different modelling processes: Energy emissions (MARKAL) Industrial process emissions Other non-energy emissions (agriculture, forestry, savanna thickening, etc) All modelling inputs, plus modelling methodology, discussed and endorsed by the SBT 22 ERC

23 Final emissions scenarios 23 ERC