The Delta Programme and updated flood risk management policies in the Netherlands. Jos van Alphen Staff Delta Programme Commissioner

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1 The Delta Programme and updated flood risk management policies in the Netherlands Jos van Alphen Staff Delta Programme Commissioner

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3 1 The Netherlands exposure profile H A R About 400 km of Rhine river (and 200 km Meuse) International catchments 60% flood prone About 9 million inhabitants below flood level GDP 600 bln euro High protection level 3700 ( ) km of flood defences, hundreds of locks, sluices, pumping stations 100 km

4 Protection dominated Dedicated governance structure Strong administrative bodies Central: ministries/ Rijkswaterstaat Regional: water boards, municipalities, provinces, safety regions Legal obligation to protect against floods: Water Act ( Environment Act) Protection standards ( 60 s) Periodic assessment (6 yr) Report to Parliament Work is never done: Dyke reinforcement, beach nourishmennts, Room for the River

5 Future challenges of delta regions More /extreme storms? More/intense rainfall Spatial developments Increased river discharge + 10% Sealevel rise (20 cm--> 0-85 cm/100y) Increased erosion Subsidence 10 cm/100yr

6 2. The Delta Programme One Aim: keeping NL a good, safe and attractive place to live and work for present and future generations ( long term perspective) Two Goals Safe, now and in the future ( ) Fresh water supply guaranteed, also in dry periods Not in answer to a disaster, but in advance, to be prepared or avoid it Multi-governance, Adaptive strategies Multifunctional measures

7 Future uncertainty Adaptive strategies Uncertain future scenario s (climate change vs. socio-economic) Decision making in uncertain future, adaptive strategies: Clear in objectives, Flexible in way to go Linking short term agenda s with long term water challenges Implementation in uncertain future Flexible measures, speed up/slow down Building with Nature

8 3. Flood Risk Management policy, a 3-layered approach (2009, EU Floods Directive) Flood risk 1. Protection 2. Land use planning 3. Disaster management

9 Protection: updated standards Flood probability, based on: Local Individual Risk (LIR) Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Group Risk (GR) Measures: Dyke reinforcements Room for the River Beach nourishment Outcome (2050): LIR everywhere at least 10-5 Economic damage: x 1/20 Group Risk (1000): x 1/45

10 Multifunctional measures Added value Additional funding Acceptance

11 Land use planning Improve flood resilience < 0.5 m: deal with / reduce disturbance: flood proofing of buildings, vital infrastructure and services m: prevent long term disruption and improve recovery: flood proofing of buildings and vital infrastructure and services (electricity) > 2.0 m: disastrous, long term disruption: evacuate, shelters, guarantee communication lines,

12 Disaster Management E = f (W, D, C, A, P, I) E = Evacuation fraction W = Early Warning D = Decision making C = Communication A = Awareness P = Performance I = Road infrastructure capacity E = 10 90%

13 Integrated flood risk management, Dordrecht example

14 4. Institutional arrangements Delta-program: measures, every year to Parliament Key decisions in 2014 Delta Commissioner: progress, uniformity, consistency Delta Fund (1 bln euro/yr) Delta Act

15 River related research Rhine: Morphological impact of RftR measures and mitigation options Morphological behaviour bifurcations and effect on discharge distribution Transboundary aspects of extreme floods and flood risk management Meuse: Relation between new flood protection standards, policy on embanked areas and RftR measures Improved flood damage models for unembanked areas New cooperate knowledge and innovation programme Water & Climate (I&M, RWS, STOWA, Deltares, NWO, KNMI, Universities,..)

16 Conclusion Flood risk management in an uncertain future requires: Periodic update of protection standards Standards based on flood risk 3 layered approach (protection + reduce consequences) Adaptive strategies: too late, too little vs. too early, too much, materialize opportunities by combining FRM-measures with urban development and aging infrastructure decisions. Design for multifunctional use ( added value) Try to built with nature ( flexible) Multigovernance firm institutional arrangements (governance, finance, legal) Knowledge development

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18 Key question: how to maintain sense of urgency 1. Multi-governmental approach joined process of strategy development and decision making 2. Decision making in uncertain future adaptive strategies 3. Institutional arrangements

19 1. Multilevel Governance Regional approach, in order to: Collect creative and innovative ideas Combine with local developments Involve local characteristics, knowledge, stakeholders and built acceptance Regional Steering Committees (waterboards, provinces, municipalities, ministries) Joint fact-finding Common knowledge base improve quality of information and acceptance Structured, stepwise process of strategy development Supervised by Delta Program Commissioner coherence between regions, uniformity, progress

20 Governance Min. EA Min. I&E Parliament DP Commissioner ASC repres. National Adm. Steering Committee DP Stakeholders national regional Wadden SW Delta D e l t a p r o g r a m Project team* Project team* Project team* Project team* Project team* Adm. Steering Committee Adm.Steering Committee Adm.Steering Committee Adm.Steering Committee Adm.Steering Committee * repres. from provinces, waterboards, municipalities, nat.governmt.

21 Strategy development and decision making Delta sub programs Probleem analysis potential strategies promising strategies preferential strategies + Delta decisions Nat. Water Plan Regional plans legislation Project decisions Implementation Delta decisions DP 2011 DP 2012 DP 2013 DP 2014 DP 2015

22 Four Delta scenario s (KNMI, 2006) Temp SLR (cm) Q rijn, 1/ % % P w, av 4-14 % 7 28 % Actualized cf IPCC 2013 P s, av % %

23 Development of adaptive strategies Steam Connect short term decisions (in physical domain) with long term water challenges Link with (short term) investment agenda s ( aging infrastructure ) accelerate Busy Warm Able to speed up or slow down, flexible to change to another strategy ( Building with Nature ) No regret, avoid lock in Rest Co-creation of integrated solutions slow down Spatial reservations for future levee enforcements, water discharge and storage sand extraction