Tim Dixon. EEF - February 19 th

Transcription

1 Carbon Capture and Storage The Developments Worldwide Tim Dixon IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme EEF - February 19 th 2008

2 Introduction to IEA GHG What is CCS? Introduction Why CCS? Fossil fuels and climate change Is it safe? International policy and regulatory developments International project developments

3 International Energy Agency International Energy Agency The International Energy Agency (IEA) acts as energy policy advisor to 27 member countries. Founded 1974 energy security IEA s mandate has broadened to incorporate energy security, economic development and environmental protection. Current work focuses on climate change policies, market reform, energy technology collaboration and outreach to the rest of the world, especially major consumers and producers of energy like China, India, Russia and the OPEC countries. Established Implementing Agreements in which h two or more member states agree to co-operate or exchange information on specific topics Today there are 41 IAs covering full range of energy supply and demand issues Most are task sharing, a few are cost sharing in which members subscribe to maintain staff to undertake programmes of work determined by the members One of these is IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (IEA GHG)

4 IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme A collaborative research programme founded in 1991 Aim is to: Provide members with definitive information on the role that technology can play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Producing information that is: Objective, trustworthy, independent Policy relevant but NOT policy prescriptive Reviewed by external Expert Reviewers Subject to review of policy implications by Members Activities: Studies (>100), R&D networks (6), Communications :- facilitating and focussing R&D and demonstration activities Funding approximately 2 million /year.

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6 What is Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)?

7 Carbon Capture and Storage Capture 85-90% Transport Storage

8 Saline Aquifers CO2 Storage Depleted oil/gas reservoirs Enhanced Oil Recovery Enhanced Coal Bed Methane

9 CO2 Trapping Mechanisms Physically trapped beneath caprock timescale: immediately CO2 is trapped by capillary forces timescale: 1-100s yrs CO2 dissolves in water timescale: s yrs CO2 converts to solid minerals timescale: 100s 10,000s yrs Trapping becomes more secure with time

10 CO2 Storage Capacity Storage Option Depleted gas fields 690 Depleted oil fields/co2-120 EOR Global Capacity - Gt CO2 Deep saline aquifers Unminable coal seams 40 Global CO2 emissions ~30 Gt pa

11 Costs - UK power generation costs (central assumptions with EU-ETS) ETS) Offshore Wind (100MW) OnshoreWind(80MW) Nuclear CCGT with CCS IGCC with CCS PF with FGD with CCS Retrofit PF with FGD with CCS CCGT IGCC PF with FGD Market price Market price 2006 ROC buyout price Market price 02/ /MWh Ie CCS = % increase coe UK DTI Energy Review 2006

12 Why CCS?

13 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report (2007) There is high agreement and much evidence that with current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades. The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, 2000) projects an increase of global GHG emissions by 25-90% (CO2-eq) between 2000 and 2030, with fossil fuels maintaining their dominant position in the global energy mix to 2030 and beyond. Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.

14 Predicted Future Global Warming Global Temperature Global CO 2 Emissions Source: IPCC

15 STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change (already at about 430 ppm CO 2 e all GHG, not just CO 2 )

16 World Primary Energy Demand billion tonne es of oil equ uivalent 18 Other renewables 16 Biomass Hydro 14 Nuclear 12 Gas Oil 10 Coal Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms (IEA/OEACD WEO 2007)

17 Reference Scenario: China & India in Global CO 2 Emissions United States Cumulative Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions European Union Japan China India billion tonnes Around 60% of the global increase in emissions in comes from China & India

18 WEO 2007 Reference Scenario: World s TopFiveCO 2 Emitters Gt rank Gt rank Gt rank US China Russia Japan India China overtook the US to become the largest emitter in 2007, while India becomes the third-largest by 2015

19 Coal Will Dominate the Power Generation Mix in China CO 2 Emissions from China's Coal-fired Power Plants Existing New to 2015 New Mt of CO Source: WEO Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology, and be crucial for emissions through 2050 and beyond

20 45 42 Gt 40 CCS in industry - 3% CCS in power generation - 9% Nuclear - 13% 35 Renewables - 20% Switching from coal to gas - 8% Gt of CO Gt End Use electricity efficiency - 17% End Use fuel efficiency - 30% Gt Source: WEO 2007

21 Conclusions World Energy Outlook 2007 Conclusions Global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path China and India are transforming the global energy system by their sheer size Challenge for all countries is to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system New policies now under consideration would make a major contribution ti Next 10 years are critical The pace of capacity additions will be most rapid Technology will be locked-in for decades Growing tightness in oil & gas markets Challenge is global so solutions must be global

22 Role of CCS in climate change mitigation? IPCC Special Report (2005) CCS contributing 15-55% of CO2 mitigation to 2100 IEA Technology Perspectives (2006) CCS 20-28% of mitigation to Second only to energy efficiency. Stern Report (2006) CCS ~10% mitigation by 2025, ~20% by Marginal mitigation costs without CCS increase by ~60%. EC/Shell (2007) - 7 yrs delay CCS = 90GT CO2 to 2050 = 3 yrs global emissions = 10ppm World Energy Outlook CCS is one of the most promising routes for mitigating emissions in the longer term and could reconcile continued coal burning with the need to cut emissions in the longer term.

23 Is it Safe?

24 IPCC Special Report on CCS (2005) Observations from engineered and natural analogues as well as models suggest that the fraction retained in appropriately selected and managed geological reservoirs is very likely to exceed 99% over 100 years and is likely to exceed 99% over 1,000 years. For well-selected, designed and managed sites, the vast majority of the CO2 will gradually be immobilized by various trapping mechanisms and, in that case, could be retained for up to millions of years. Storage could become more secure over longer timescales. Local health and safety risks for CO2 pipelines could be similar or lower than hydrocarbon pipelines.

25 IPCC Guidelines for GHG Inventories Apr 2006 Vol 2 Energy, Chp 5 - CO2 Transport, Injection and Geological Storage Methodology Site characterisation inc leakage pathways Assessment of risk of leakage simulation / modelling Monitoring monitoring plan Reporting inc CO2 inj and emissions from storage site For appropriately selected and managed sites, supports zero leakage unless monitoring indicates otherwise

26 IPCC Guidelines for GHG cont. Monitoring Plan Measurement of background fluxes of CO2 Continuous measurement of CO2 injected Monitoring of injection emissions Periodic monitoring of CO2 distribution Monitoring of CO2 fluxes to surface Post-injection monitoring as above, linked to modelling, may be reduced or discontinued once CO2 stabilises at its predicted long- term distribution Incorporate improvements in technologies and techniques over time Monitoring technologies Annex 1 Deep subsurface technologies Shallow subsurface technologies Surface / water technologies

27 Site Characterisation and Modelling Year 2021 Year 2412 Year 2621 Year 5019 Year 7018 Kilde: Gemini No. 1, 2004 (NTNU and Sintef)

28 Monitoring 4D seismic used to monitor the CO2 plume Statoil 2007

29 If leakage were to occur? Remediation methods available from oil and gas expertise Well integrity Caprock Re-seal and re-plug well (cement, heavy mud) Repair or replace well casing/tubing/packing Intercept well - long-established techniques Remove accumulated CO2 Reduce pressure in reservoir Increase pressure in strata above Inject sealing foam/gel/cement Costs - ~ 1-10 $m Also can stop using site

30 International Policy and Regulatory Developments

31 London Convention and Protocol Marine Treaty - Global agreement regulating dumping of wastes and other matter at sea Convention 1972 (83 countries), Protocol 1996 ratified March 2006 (31 countries) CCS Assessed by LC Scientific Group Risk Assessment Framework for CO2 Amendment adopted at 28th Consultative Meeting, 2 Nov came into force 10 Feb 2007 to allow:- CO2 streams from CO2 capture processes for sequestration CO2 Specific Guidance

32 Simulated and observed marine ph ranges till 2100 ph range for the last 20 million years 8 ph ppm 280 ppm 370 ppm 500 ppm 700 ppm 1000 ppm Glacial Pre-ind Now worst case PML 2005

33 PML: Impacts and Feedbacks in a High CO 2 World? Synergistic Effects Climate Change Ocean Acidification Feedbacks with ocean acidification Biogases: sea/air flux Feedbacks with climate change Increased thermal and freshwater stratification CH 4, N 2 O, DMS Ocean CO 2 uptake Decreasing surface ocean ph Decreasing nutrient and O 2 flux Modellin g Experimentatio n Observatio n Benthic-Pelagic coupling C, N, P, Si, S Pelagic biodiversity and biogeochemistry Meroplankton: larvae and juveniles Benthic biodiversity and dbiogeochemistry i Turley, Plymouth Marine Laboratory

34 Example: Leakage at a rate of 3 million tons CO 2 per year Slide courtesy Ken Caldeira; Data Chen et al., 2005

35 Simulation of a continuous leak over 1 year ph anomaly compared with no leak - based on capacity of one pipeline Short term leak will have a very small and spatially limited impact A long term leak will have a measurable and wider spread impact, but the impact is small compared with atmospherically driven acidification Blackford, J.C., Gilbert, F.J., ph variability and CO 2 induced acidification in the North Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 64

36 Marine Treaty for NE Atlantic 15 nations and EC Considered CO2 impacts on seas Considered CCS OSPAR OSPAR amendments (to Annexes II and III) for CO2 storage adopted June 2007 OSPAR Decision requirement to use Guidelines when permitting, including risk assessment and management process OSPAR Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Management of Storage of fco2i in Geological lformations includes the Framework for Risk Assessment and Management (FRAM)

37 London and OSPAR Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Management Scope scenarios, boundaries Site selection and characterisation physical, geological, og chemical, ca biological og Exposure assessment characterisation CO2 stream, leakage pathways Effects assessment sensitivity of species, communities, habitats, other users Risk characterisation integrates exposure and effects - environmental impact, likelihood Risk management incl. monitoring, mitigation

38 EU Developments EC Communication on Sustainable Power Generation from Fossil Fuels (Jan 2007) EU Spring Council Action Plan for Energy Policy for Europe Stimulate t up to 12 CCS demonstrations ti by 2015 Strengthen R&D and develop technical, economic and regulatory framework to bring environmentally-safe CCS to deployment by 2020

39 EC Draft CCS Directive Enabling regulatory framework to ensure environmentally sound CCS (23 Jan 2008) Follows IPCC GHG Guidelines and OSPAR Objective is permanent storage Permits will be required for CCS Permit only if no significant risk of leakage Emphasis on site selection, characterisation, risk assessment, monitoring Corrective measures Financial security required from operator Liability transfer to regulatory authority when evidence indicates contained for indefinate future only then may monitoring reduce or cease Removes regulatory barriers in other Directives IPPC, Waste, LCPD, Water, EIA, ELD Capture-ready

40 ETS Directive To strengthen, expand and improve the ETS from 2013 CCS Can already be included in Phase II ( ) by opt-in CCS fully included from 2013 Site and operation will need to comply with CCS Directive Needs monitoring and reporting guidelines No free allocation to CCS (same as electricity) Separate permitting of capture, transport and storage If any leakage surrendering of allowances

41 Regulatory developments in other regions USA Existing Underground Injection Control programme for ground water protection adapted for Pilot projects Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission has developed recommendations for regulations for CO2 storage at a State Level US EPA are developing Federal level regulations for CO2 storage Australia Will adapt Federal Oil and Gas Laws State of Victoria has a consultation document for CCS Canada Canada acid gas injection and CO2-EOR already permitted in states like Alberta Federal Task Force developing CCS regulations Japan Adapted marine laws but has no oil and gas laws to adopt for CCS Most existing laws cover; permitting, construction, operational and abandonment phases but NOT post closure

42 Multinational Initiatives Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum To facilitate development and deployment of improved cost- effective technologies for the separation and capture of carbon dioxide for its transport and long-term safe storage Countries and EC Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate To accelerate the development and deployment of clean energy technologies Countries G initiatives on CCS

43 EU - China EU-China Partnership on Climate Change 2005 Near Zero Emissions Coal project (NZEC) Aim to bring forward deployment of CCS in China NZEC Phase 1 Feasibility study for carbon dioxide capture and storage in China Leading towards demonstration

44 International CCS Project Developments

45 Current CO 2 Injection and Storage Projects 50 Acid Gas injection sites in North America 4 New CO 2 -EOR Pilots in Canada Snohvit Alberta ECBM Teapot Dome Rangely Burlington Zama Penn West Weyburn Mountaineer West Pearl Queen Frio Carson Sleipner K-12B RECOPOL CO 2 SINK In Salah Qinshui Basin Hokkaido Nagaoka 70 CO 2 -EOR projects in U.S.A. Key Depleted Oil Field ECBM projects EOR projects Gas production Fields Otway Basin Saline aquifier

46 Proposed Integrated CCS Projects SaskPower FutureGen HALTEN DF1 Centrica Mongstad E.ON E.ON RWE RWE HypoGen Lacq DF2 DF4 nzec GREENGEN Key LNG Pre-Combustion Capture IGCC DF3 Stanwell Hazelwood Callide Oxy-Fuel Post-Combustion

47 Sleipner, Norway injecting 1mt since 1997

48 Sleipner

49 In Salah Algeria BP with Sonatrach & Statiol Started in 2004 Natural gas clean-up Storing 1 million tons of CO2 annually Injecting into reservoir aquifer

50 Capture from coal gasification in the USA by Dakota Gas Injection for enhanced oil recovery in Canada by Encana Weyburn

51 Recent Project Developments in EU... Include: UK CCS demo full scale, coal, post-combustion, offshore storage Germany Ketzin - injection RWE planning a 450 MWe coal fired IGCC project with on-shore storage Vattenfall have a built a 30 MW CO2 capture pilot plant Plans to build a 300MW demonstration ti project in Germany EON and Siemens CO2 capture pilot plant France Lacq Project. Total Oxyfuel. 150kt - CO2 aquifer. 27km pipeline Netherlands CO2 injection into K12B field NUON _ IGCC CO2 capture

52 IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme General - CCS - GHGT th 19 th November 2009 Washington D.C.