INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

Transcription

1 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 2016

2 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING ( IRP ) Review the District s projected loads and resource balance once every two years. Also review compliance to I-937 requirements: Renewable procurement Cost-effective conservation IRP is required by State of Washington law The District must sumbit information and data from the plan to the Washington State Department of Commerce.

3 IRP REQUIREMENTS Updated forecasts of projected customer demand An assessment of commercially available conservation and efficiency resources An assessment and comparison of renewable and nonrenewable generating technologies and resources An assessment of the District s ability to integrate renewable resources, and address over-generation events Utilization of demand forecasts and resource evaluations to describe the mix of supply side generating resources and conservation and efficiency resources that will meet current and projected needs An Action Plan consistent with the IRP analysis and findings

4 CUSTOMER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

5 DEMAND DRIVEN BY INDUSTRIAL LOAD GROWTH

6 CONSERVATION ASSESSMENT Comprehensive assessment completed in November

7 COMPARISON OF RESOURCES Reviewed cost assessment from NWPCC and other regional utilities NWPCC cost estimates: Technology Size (MW) Forecast Capacity Factor Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh) Non Renewable Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine % $ 71 Reciprocating Engine % $ 137 Aeroderivative Gas Turbine % $ 139 Frame Gas Turbine % $ 128 Renewable Solar (Washington) 47 19% $ 121 Wind Columbia Basin % $ 110 Wind Montana % $ 106 Geothermal 39 90% $ 85

8 FORWARD MARKET Forward prices remain below cost of newbuild through Cost effective conservation potential was based on market price assessment. Conservation potential reported for the District is more cost-effective than the market. Low wholesale energy prices may drive energy sellers and project owners to find other ways to generate cash. Mid-C Forward Prices Year Peak Off Peak 2017 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Carbon measures may impact market, but handicapping which plans will prevail and the resulting impact is very difficult right now

9 OVER-GENERATION EVENTS (NEGATIVE MARKETS) Negative hourly markets have occurred on approximately 2% of the hours in the last five and a half years. Negative markets tend to occur during nighttime hours during the spring runoff season. Shell Energy has taken the risk of negative pricing in the market from the District through 2020

10 LOAD AND RESOURCE PROJECTION Base Year 5 Year Estimate 10 Year Estimate Estimate Year Period Winter Summer Annual Winter Summer Annual Winter Summer Annual Units (MW) (MW) (MWa) (MW) (MW) (MWa) (MW) (MW) (MWa) Loads ,070 1, Exports 1, , Resources: Future Conservation/Efficiency Hydro 1, ,165 1, ,165 1, Wind Net Long Term Contracts BPA Total Resources 1, ,094 1, ,174 1, Load Resource Balance ) Base year 2015 data is actual load and actual generation. Base year 2015 peak capability is the actual generation on the observed peak load hours for ) Hydro values include Grant PUD rights in Wanapum, Priest Rapids, P.E.C, Quincy Chute and Wapato. 3) Conservation based on economic potential study performed in November ) Physical loads and resources are covered through a resource and load exchange agreement with Shell Energy until ) Imports and exports only reflects purchases and sales that have been executed. 6) Hydro peak capabilities based on PNCA 2016 Final reg for Priest Rapids and Wanapum with 12 MW of summer peak capability for PEC and Quincy Chute.

11 CONCLUSIONS The District meets its physical load obligation, both peak and energy, with the Shell exchange contract through September The RPS standard is met under the medium load forecast without new renewable resources through Load growth driven primarily by the industrial sector creates a high degree of uncertainty in the overall load projections and the resulting planning activities. The region is moving towards a capacity-based reliability planning standard rather than an energy-based standard. The risk of failing to serve load in the future will be tied to a lack of generating capacity rather than a lack of water.

12 ACTION PLAN Implement cost effective conservation. Continue to monitor load growth and the potential for changes in the plans/forecasts of large industrial customers. Adopt a capacity-based planning standard for the District. Facilitate a smooth transition at the termination of the current Hourly Coordination Agreement. Evaluate the expanding EIM and identify the best strategy for the District related to the changing marketplace. Monitor and evaluate the Shell exchange agreement to determine if the agreement should be extended or replaced with something similar in October Monitor opportunities to procure existing generating resources, particularly renewables, at costs lower than new build.