The potential biodiversity cost of renewable energy

Transcription

1 Uwe Potthoff via Flickr creative commons The potential biodiversity cost of renewable energy Dr James Pearce-Higgins Director of Science

2 The need for mitigation IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report

3 Extinction risk (%) The need for mitigation Global temperature rise ( C) Pearce-Higgins & Green (2014) Birds and Climate Change Paul Donald

4 The need for mitigation Warren et al. (2013) Nat. Clim. Ch. 3:

5 The need for mitigation Warren et al. (2013) Nat. Clim. Ch. 3:

6 The need for renewable energy Pearce-Higgins & Green (2014) Birds and Climate Change

7 The potential cost of renewable energy Luke Delve

8 The potential cost of wind Other passerines, 390 Golden eagle, 67 Red-tailed hawk, ,000 birds USA 1 17,000 birds Canada 1 47,000 bats Canada 2 1 Loss et al Ann. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Sys. 2 Zimmerling & Francis 2016 J. Wild. Man. American kestrel, 348 Western meadowlark, 415 Burrowing owl, 440 European starling, 272 Brewer s blackbird, 89 Rock dove, 189 Mourning dove, 121 Other raptors, 85 Other large birds, 108 Pearce-Higgins & Green (2014) Birds and Climate Change

9 The potential cost of wind No. vulture females John Harding / BTO No years Carette et al. (2009) Biological Conservation Pearce-Higgins & Green (2014) Birds and Climate Change

10 The potential cost of solar McCrary et al. (1986) J. Ornith

11 The potential cost of hydropower No. Dams A 120 B I G Basin area (million km2) Pearce-Higgins & Green (2014) Birds and Climate Change

12 The potential cost of hydropower Increased saline inundation of coastal habitats Reduced erosion of coastal habitats Reduction in tidal range and extent of intertidal habitat Reduction in duration of mudflat exposure Decrease in flow rate Increased erosion of coastal habitats BARRAGE Deposition of fine sediment Nutrient deposition increasing primary productivity Increased wave action Pearce-Higgins & Green (2014) Birds and Climate Change Increase in flow rate Erosion of mudflat and reduction in silt BARRAGE

13 The potential cost of biofuel Reduction in palm oil plantations Pearce-Higgins & Green (2014) Birds and Climate Change Richness Abundance Samantha Franks

14 Energy production (MW-h/yr/km2) Energy efficiency Jeremy Wilson

15 Impacts on species IMPACTS ON POPULATIONS CUMULATIVE IMPACTS

16 Key questions What are impacts on populations? What is cumulative impact on species? How can impacts be avoided? Luke Delve

17 Prop. flights Impacts on species Johnston et al. (2014) J. Appl. Ecol N Height (m) 500 m Edmund Fellowes / BTO

18 Prop. flights Impacts on species Johnston et al. (2014) J. Appl. Ecol Ross Smith et al. (2016) J. Appl. Ecol. Height (m)

19 Impacts on species Luke Delve Pearce-Higgins et al. (2009) J. Appl. Ecol 46: Pearce-Higgins et al. (2012) J. Appl. Ecol 49:

20 Impacts on species Thaxter et al. (in prep)

21 Impacts on species Thaxter et al. (in prep)

22 Impacts on species Thaxter et al. (in prep)

23 Impacts on species Thaxter et al. (in prep)

24 Impacts on species Thaxter et al. (in prep)

25 Edmund Fellowes / BTO

26 Key questions Impact on populations (sensitivity) Overlap of species with renewables (exposure) Gives vulnerability (potential impact on species) Vulnerability = sensitivity x exposure Luke Delve

27 Impacts of renewable energy on global biodiversity an overlooked cost of climate change mitigation? James Pearce-Higgins, Chris Thaxter, Doug Crawford- Brown, Graeme Buchanan, Jamie Carr, Rhys Green, Tim Newbold, Stuart Butchart Uwe Potthoff via Flickr creative commons

28 Sensitivity Uwe Potthoff via Flickr creative commons Impacts of renewable energies assessed through land-use change and species habitat associations.

29 Sensitivity Uwe Potthoff via Flickr creative commons Impacts of renewable energies assessed through land-use change and species habitat associations. Additional impacts of collision mortality with wind farms for birds and bats assessed through literature review and metaanalysis

30 Collision mortality Literature review Extract data, compile database Collision data Study data Trait data Phylogeny Trait-based modelling Predictions to all species based on trait relationships

31 Exposure Uwe Potthoff via Flickr creative commons 4CMR macro-economic models used to assess future energy mixes for 3 scenarios ( business as usual, medium ambition, high sustainability ), 3 time periods (2015, 2030, 2050) and four renewables (wind, solar, hydro, bioenergy). Overlap between renewable energy and species distributions determines exposure.

32 Exposure Mecure et al. (2014) Energy Policy

33 Vulnerability Vulnerability = sensitivity x exposure Uwe Potthoff via Flickr creative commons

34 Vulnerability Vulnerability = sensitivity x exposure Uwe Potthoff via Flickr creative commons 50% loss of range extent

35 Outputs Uwe Potthoff via Flickr creative commons Paper of species sensitivity to collision rates with turbines. Species assessments incorporated within Species Information Service. Hotspot maps of vulnerability to different renewable energies. Paper summarising potential global assessment of vulnerability to different mitigation scenarios. Policy-focussed dissemination

36 Outputs Uwe Potthoff via Flickr creative commons Foden et al. (2013) PLoS ONE

37 Acknowledgements Uwe Potthoff via Flickr creative commons This research is funded by the Cambridge Conservation Initiative, thanks to the generosity of the Arcadia Fund. It is steered by an advisory group consisting of Sue.O'Brien, Wendy Foden, Colin Galbraith, Mark Wright, James Watson & Aida Kowalska.

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