20% Wind Energy by 2030

Transcription

1 20% Wind Energy by 2030 Steve Lindenberg Senior Advisor, Renewable Energy Department of Energy World Bank Energy Week April 1, 2009

2 Presentation Overview Background 20% Wind Scenario Costs Benefits Challenges Summary

3 The DOE 20% Wind Technical Report Explores one scenario for reaching 20% wind electric delivery by 2030 and contrasts it to a scenario in which no new U.S. wind power capacity is installed It is not a prediction, but an analysis based on one scenario exploring various aspects of power supply Does not assume specific policy support for wind Is the work of more than 100 individuals involved from (government, National Labs, contractors, industry, utilities, & NGOs) Critically examines wind s roles in energy security, economic prosperity and environmental sustainability

4 The DOE 20% Wind Energy Scenario Primary Assumptions: U.S. electricity consumption grows 39% from 2005 to to 5.8 billion MWh (Source: EIA 2007) Wind turbine energy production increases about 15% Wind turbine costs decrease about 10% No major breakthroughs expected in wind technology Primary Findings: 20% wind electricity would require about 300 GW (300,000 MW) of wind generation to be installed An increase of about 280 GW over December 2008 level Affordable, accessible wind resources are available in good abundance across the Nation and in Canada

5 Wind Resource Potential at 50m Elevation Wind Power Classification Wind Power Class a Resource Potential Wind Power Density at 50 m 2 W/m Wind Speeda at 50 m m/s Wind Speeda at 50 m mph Fair Good Excellent Outstanding Superb Wind speeds are based on a Weibull k value of

6 Supply of Wind Energy and Transmission Land-Based Class 7 Class 6 Offshore Class 7 Class 6 10% of existing transmission capacity available to wind Levelized Cost of Energy, $/MWh Class 5 Class 4 Class 3 Class 5 Class 4 Class ,000 Quantity Available, GW 2010 Costs w/ PTC, $1,600/MW-mile, 2010 w/o Costs Integration without PTC, $1,600/MW-mile, costs without Integration costs 43

7 20% Wind Scenario Results 305 GW Installed Capacity as of January 2009 = >25,000 MW

8 46 States With Substantial Wind Development Wind Capacity Total Installed (2030) (GW) > 10 Includes offshore wind. The black open square in the center of a state represents the land area needed for a single wind farm to produce the projected installed capacity in that state. The brown square represents the actual land area that would be dedicated to the wind turbines (2% of the black open square).

9 Transmission: Existing and Required by 2030 Wind (MW) on Transmission Lines Existing New >1000 Wind (MW) Used Inside the BA >5000

10 20% Wind Scenario Costs Billions of 2006 Dollars $3000 $2500 $2000 $1500 $1000 $500 Incremental Investment Cost from 20% Wind Scenario } $0 No New Wind Wind O&M Costs Wind Capital Costs Transmission Costs 20% Wind Fuel Costs Conventional O&M Costs Conventional Capital Costs

11 Electricity Sector Costs Incremental economic costs reflect: Capital costs of wind projects relative to other projects Incremental transmission investment No New Wind scenario costs over $2 trillion in new investment by dollars net present value terms 20% Wind Scenario requires only 2% more investment ($43 billion in net present value) 50 cents per month on the average household bill

12 20% Wind Scenario Generation Mix in 2030 Reduces electric utility natural gas consumption by 50% in U.S. Reduces total natural gas consumption by 11% Reduces 18% electric utility coal consumption Avoids construction of 80 GW of new coal power plants Source *: Hand et al., % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% U.S. Electrical Energy Mix No New Wind Natural Gas Coal Nuclear 20% Wind Hydro Wind

13 CO 2 Emissions from the Electricity Sector 4,500 4,000 CO 2 Emissions in the Electric Sector (million metric tons) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, No New Wind Scenario CO 2 emissions 20% Wind Scenario CO 2 emissions USCAP path to 80% below 2007 levels by

14 Annual CO 2 Emissions Reductions Total CO 2 Reductions = 7,600 million metric tons Annual Reduction in CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Annual Reductions (Right Axis) 0

15 Significant Water Use Savings Cumulatively, the 20% Wind Scenario would avoid the consumption of 4 trillion gallons of water through The 20% Wind Scenario cuts electric sector water consumption by 17% in Billion Gallons Saved Year

16 Other Benefits of Wind Energy Wind power avoids the negative impacts electricity generate from fossil fuels: Air emissions of mercury or other heavy metals Emissions from extracting and transporting fuels Lake and streambed acidification Production of dangerous solid wastes, ash, or slurry Reduces fossil fuel demand and fuel prices, helping to stabilize electricity rates Improves energy security by diversifying electricity portfolio and is an indigenous energy source

17 Wind Manufacturing Jobs Distributed to all States Jobs (in person-years) 300-1,000 1,000-5,000 5,000-10,000 10,000-20,000 20,000-30,000 > 30,000 Manufacturing location information from REPP Report by Sterzinger & Svrcek (2004) Major component assumptions: 50% of blades are manufactured in U.S. in 2007 increasing to 80% by 2030, 26% of towers are from the U.S. in 2007 increasing to 50% by 2030 and 20% of turbines are made in the U.S. increasing to 42% by 2030.

18 Jobs Supported by the 20% Scenario Over 500,000 jobs would be developed between 2007 and 2030 Over 500,000 jobs supported by the industry in 2030 Approx. 180,000 directly employed }by wind

19 Challenges to Achieving the 20% Wind Scenario

20 Transmission Enhancement of electrical transmission system required in all electricity-growth scenarios Wind requires more transmission than some other options as best winds are often in remote locations Transmission is needed to: Relieve congestion in the existing system Improve system reliability for all customers Increase access to lower-cost energy Access new and remote generation resources Photo courtesy: NREL

21 Continue Evolution of Commercial Wind 140 The 1980 s The 1990 s 2000 & Beyond 120 5MW Offshore Rotor Diameter in Meters kW kW Z-750kW 500kW 750kW 3.6MW 1.5MW 2.5MW 3.6MW Land Based 2.5MW kW 300kW GE 1.5MW 100kW

22 Land Area Required for the 20% Scenario Only 2% to 5% of total 20% Wind land area (617,000 acres) dedicated to wind equipment and supporting roads Area slightly smaller than Rhode Island 75,000 wind turbines Total land area required: 15 million acres Land-based = 12.4 million acres Offshore = 3.6 million acres

23 Project Siting and Wildlife Project siting often raises local concerns about: Human Visual concerns Property value influnces Impacts on local wildlife/habitats Turbine or rotor noise Land use conflicts Current wind generation is responsible for 0.003% of human-caused avian mortality (National Research Council Report, 2007) Bat mortality higher than expected and under study No site or cumulative impacts on bird or bat populations have been demonstrated, to date

24 Summary: Costs & Benefits Incremental direct cost to society Reductions in emissions of greenhouse gasses and other atmospheric pollutants Reductions in water consumption Jobs created and other economic benefits $43 billion 50 cents/ month avg. for U.S. Home 825 million tons of CO 2 annually 8% total electric 17% electric in ,000 total with 150,000 direct jobs Reductions in natural gas use - consumers benefit 11%

25 Thank You For Your Attention Report Websites Federal Government site: windandhydro Industry site:

26 References U.S. Department of Energy % Wind Energy by DOE/GO Washington, DC. Black & Veatch % Wind Energy Penetration in the United States: A Technical Analysis of the Energy Resource. Walnut Creek, CA National Research Council Environmental Impacts of Wind-Energy Projects. Washington DC: National Academies Press. Wiser, R. and M. Bolinger Annual Report on U.S. Wind Power Installations, Cost, and Performance Trends: DOE/GO Golden, CO: NREL.

27 Examples of Technology Improvements in Support of 20% Scenario Increase capacity factors Pursue larger rotors and taller towers Continue improvements to blades, rotors, drive-train components and controls Enhance reliability of major components Reduce capital costs Reduce aerodynamic and mechanical loads through advanced blade and rotor concepts Reduce turbine weight through judicious use of newer, highstrength materials Improve component manufacturability and manufacturing processes Mitigate risks Evaluate performance to enable early identification of issues Track O&M needs to enhance experience base for turbines and components Conduct testing and certification activities