Energy Economic Developments in Europe

Transcription

1 Energy Economic Developments in Europe European Commission - DG ECFIN Emmanuelle Maincent Head of unit Economic analysis of energy, transport, climate change and cohesion policy ergy-economic-developments-in-europe_en.htm 1

2 Background 2030 Framework on Energy and Climate change Report on energy prices and costs May European Council Conclusions Discussions in the EPC WG on climate change and energy (May and November 2013) 2

3 Objective of our analysis Provide analysis and evidence for the economic impact of energy developments in the EU and Member States Contribute to discussions about economic aspects of energy and climate policies On lessons learnt On how best these policies can contribute to fostering the transition to low carbon economies 3

4 Outline Part I - Competitiveness: Unit Energy costs in Europe, Member States and international partners. Recent developments: shale gas in the US and impacts on the EU. Part II - Price drivers: Electricity and Natural Gas price drivers Carbon price drivers Part III - Renewable developments: Renewables developments in the EU and the world Drivers to trade in renewable equipment Avoided fuel costs 4

5 Energy Cost Competitiveness in Manufacturing: where do we stand? 5

6 Unit Energy Costs in industry: global comparison Real Unit Energy Costs as % of value added, manufacturing sector % Energy costs have been on an increasing trend in both the EU and the rest of the world since 1995 Energy costs as % of valued added of the EU manufacturing sector is among the lowest in the world EU27 US JP CN RU Source: European Economy (2014) 1

7 Drivers of energy cost competitiveness: a decomposition of unit energy costs Real Energy Price Levels 0.25 $/10 MJ CN EU27 JP US Energy Intensity Levels MJ/$ The price of energy in the EU (and Japan) is among the highest in a global comparison EU manufacturing has adapted to high prices by specialising in low energy intensity and high value added production EU has improved its energy intensity since 1995 but US and especially China are catching up CN EU27 JP US Source: European Economy (2014) 1

8 Evolution of real unit energy cost: restructuring effect? % % EU27 EU27 US US Japan Japan China China Within subsector effect Restructuring effect Interaction effect Within subsector effect Restructuring effect Interaction effect Source: European Economy (2014) 1 8

9 Energy price drivers: focus on electricity, gas and carbon prices 9

10 Electricity and Natural Gas End-User Prices Average ratio of Industrial to Household electricity prices, relative to the EU-27 average, Electricity Prices EU average change per electricity tariff component between 2008 and 2011 The largest % increase among the components of retail electricity prices observed in taxes and levies Gas Prices Usually household prices are higher than the industrial prices, as a result of load profiles, level of voltage/pressure connection. Compared to the EU average, the ratio is highly dispersed across Member States, implying the level of some state intervention to satisfy different distributional preferences in industrial and social policy. Source: European Economy (2014) 1

11 Electricity Prices drivers: Empirical Findings 10% 8% Households 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% % RES support Fossil Fuels Competition and Regulation aspects Cross-Subsidisation Other Retail Price 12% Industry 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% % -6% 11 RES support Fossil Fuels Competition and Regulation aspects Cross-Subsidisation Other Retail Price

12 Natural gas Prices drivers: Empirical Findings 25% 20% Households 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 10% Import Dependency Importers Power Competition and Regulation aspects Cross-Subsidisation Other Retail Price 35% 30% Industries 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Import Dependency Importers Power Competition and Regulation aspects Cross-Subsidisation Other Retail Price 12

13 Carbon Prices Analysis Evolution of carbon price, fuels and electricity prices over Carbon Prices, less volatile than electricity prices, but almost as volatile as other primary energy sources After mid-2011 CO2 prices have been decoupled from coal and Gas prices Source: European Economy (2014) 1

14 Carbon prices drivers : empirical findings 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% Renewable production Industrial production Coal price Other CO2 price 14 Source: European Economy (2014) 1

15 Trade and Renewables 15

16 Trade in renewable energy components: Revealed comparative advantages Average Revealed Comparative Advantage Indexes of solar and wind industries in the EU- 27, USA, China and Japan EU has a significant trade deficit in solar and a small surplus in wind components EU has revealed a comparative advantage in wind components (high RCA index value) EU has a revealed comparative disadvantage in solar components (low RCA index value) Source: European Economy (2014) 1

17 Trade in renewable energy components: Relative trade balance Average Relative Trade Balances of the EU-27, USA, China and Japan Solar Solar components: EU-27 has a negative relative trade balance, deteriorated over time Wind components: EU-27 displays a positive relative trade balance Wind Source: European Economy (2014) 1

18 Renewable energy: avoided imported fuel costs Avoided imported fuel costs thanks to renewable energy, 2010 EU-27 deficit in energy products: EUR 304 bn in 2010, EUR 421 bn in 2012 Renewables allow Member States to save part of imported fuel costs Avoided imported fossil fuel costs: some EUR 30 billions in 2010 These avoided import costs expected to rise in future with higher RES production and rising world fossil fuel prices Source: European Economy (2014) 1

19 Thank you 19