GCEP at Age Four. Stanford University Global Climate & Energy Project. Global Technology Strategy Project Technical Review May 23, 2007

Transcription

1 Stanford University Global Climate & Energy Project Global Technology Strategy Project Technical Review May 23, 2007 GCEP at Age Four As Told to John Weyant By Lynn Orr, Sally Benson, Chris Edwards, and Richard Sassoon

2 The Grand Challenge Needs Growth Growth in in world world population to to 9 billion billion from from billion, billion, of of which which 2 billion billion people people currently have have no no access access to to modern energy energy systems Improved standard of of living living in in growing economies of of developing world world Increased demands for for energy, energy, food, food, land, land, and and materials. Protecting, Restoring, and and Sustaining Planetary Biogeochemical Systems Component Challenges Water Water supply supply Agricultural systems (strongly linked linked to to water water supply) supply) Energy (with (with possible limits limits on on CO CO 2 2 emission)

3 The Need for Technology Assumed Advances In: In: Fossil Fossil Fuels Fuels Energy Energy intensity Nuclear Renewables The Gap Gap Gap Technologies: Carbon Carbon capture & disposal Adv. Adv. fossil fossil H 2 and Adv. 2 and Adv. Transportation Biotechnologies Soils, Soils, Bioenergy, Bioenergy, Adv. Adv. Biological Biological Energy Energy Source: J. Edmonds, PNNL

4 So what do we do about this? Look for energy efficiency at every turn there is plenty of room for efficiency improvement with technologies we have today, especially in the US (lots of near-term opportunities in buildings, lighting, vehicles, etc). But growth in demand, particularly in the developing world will require that new technologies be brought on line if greenhouse gases emissions are to be reduced at the same time. Engage in a vigorous research effort to lay foundations for future energy technologies. Use a portfolio approach: guessing now the shape of the energy mix and markets years in the future is doomed to failure.

5 United States CO 2 Emissions by Sector and Fuels Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Millions of metric tons per year carbon equivalent Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electric Generation Source: U.S. EPA Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, April 2002

6 Cost of Electricity with a Carbon Tax Levelized Cost Comparison for Electric Power Generation With $100 per Ton Tax on Carbon (2006 Fuel Prices) Carbon Tax Fuel-2006 Variable O&M Fixed O&M Charges Capital Charges 0.15 $/KWHr (2006$s ) Nuclear Coal Gas CC Gas CT Solar PV Solar Thermal Generation Technology Wind Source: J. Weyant, Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University

7 The Global Climate and Energy Project The The Global Global Climate Climate and and Energy Energy Project Project (GCEP) (GCEP) was was established to to conduct conduct fundamental research research to to develop develop the the energy energy options options needed needed to to address address the the gap gap It It is is a 10-year, 10-year, $225M $225M commitment for for research research on on the the fundamental underpinnings for for technologies that that could could have have a significant significant impact impact on on a global global scale scale Mission To Conduct Fundamental Research to Support Development of Technology Options for Energy Use With Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions and others

8 GCEP Approach Build a portfolio of of projects that that are: are: Excellent science or or engineering science Have Have potential (if (if successful) for for impact impact at at scale scale Step-out: new new options options for for energy energy conversions with with low low GHG GHG emissions Address questions appropriate to to fundamental research that that may may have an an impact in in the the year year timeframe willing to to accept risk risk for for potential reward Make all all data, results, and and other information generated from from the the project open and and available to to all all Involve institutions from from countries with with potential high high levels of of future greenhouse gas gas emissions

9 Step-Out Research Energy Option Energy Option Progress Step back to to fundamentals Step-out Idea Scientific Advance to to Enable Development of of a Game-changing Technology in in Reduced Time Scientific Challenge Present Time Time

10 Where Do We Stand? research projects in in five technical areas at at Stanford and nine outside institutions either completed, underway, or or being initiated Established program to to provide seed funding to to explore novel ideas for for GHG reduction (nine projects completed or or underway) Anticipated research commitment is is $61.2M out to to 2009 Visited institutions in in Europe, Japan, India, China, Australia, and US that have been considered for for potential GCEP sponsorship Filed patent applications on on five technologies with three others in in process

11 GCEP Participation Stanford Faculty: PIs PIs lead lead GCEP GCEP supported research Departments in in Earth Earth Sciences, Engineering, Humanities and and Sciences, Medicine, and and SLAC SLAC Geology, Energy Energy Resources Eng, Eng, Geophysics, Management Science & Eng, Eng, Materials Science & Eng, Eng, Chem ChemEng, Civil Civil and and Env EnvEng, Eng, Mech Mech Eng, Eng, Elec. Elec. Eng, Eng, SSRL, SSRL, Chemistry, Biological Sciences, Physics, Genetics Stanford Students: Approximately Graduate Students, Post-docs, and and other other researchers since since start start of of GCEP GCEP Outside Awards: 9 Institutions currently, and and negotiations underway with with 6 others others PIs PIs with with additional PIs PIs in in potential future future subcontracts

12 GCEP Research Portfolio Areas CO 2 separation, capture, and storage Combustion science and engineering Hydrogen production, distribution, and use Renewable energy sources (wind, solar, biomass, geothermal) Advanced materials Advanced coal utilization Advanced transportation systems Advanced nuclear power technologies Electric power generation, storage, distribution Energy distribution systems and enabling infrastructures Geoengineering Active research currently underway Research proposals under review Assessment in progress Future consideration

13 Exergy Flow of Planet Earth (TW) Source: W. Hermann, GCEP Systems Analysis Group Current Global Exergy Usage Rate ~ 15 TW (0.5 ZJ per year) (1 ZJ = J) ~86000/15 = ~5700

14 Overall Distribution of GCEP Research Funding Distribution of Research Awards including Pending Subcontract Funding Across Technical Areas C Capture and Storage 20% Adv Materials and Cat 6% Integrated Assessment 3% Adv Combustion 12% Adv Transportation 8% Hydrogen 18% Adv Coal 6% Renewables 27% Total Research Funds: $61.2M

15 Exergy Flow of Planet Earth (TW): Solar Resource Source: W. Hermann, GCEP Systems Analysis Group (1 ZJ = J)

16 PV Land Area Requirements to Supply US Energy Use (N. Lewis) Estimates by Nate Lewis at Caltech found that about 1.5% of US land area would be required to generate current total US energy use. 3 TW Source: N. Lewis, NAS Presentation

17 Nanostructured Photovoltaic Cells Mike McGehee Using organic semiconductor polymers on on flexible substrates may may reduce cost cost of of manufacture of of PV PV cells cells by by an an order of of magnitude Develop a polymer-titaniapv PV cell cell to to maximize performance: Achieve efficient electron-hole charge charge separation through high high interfacial surface surface area area of of nanostructure Align Align and and order order carrier carrier pathways by by depositing polymers in in titania titania nanopores through melt melt infiltration and and electropolymerization Use Use a nm nm thin thin layer layer to to provide provide a short short and and direct direct pathway for for charge charge migration to to electrodes

18 Nanostructured Silicon-Based Tandem Solar Cells Martin Green, Gavin Conibeer (UNSW) Fabrication of of two- two-or or three-cell tandem stack stack devices from from silicon-based materials. Uses Uses abundant, non-toxic, stable, stable, and and durable materials Control Control the the bandgapof of silicon silicon through carrier carrier confinement in in nanoscale structures Integrate Integrate silicon silicon nanoparticles nanoparticlesinto into matrices matrices of of silicon silicon oxide, oxide, nitride, nitride, or or carbide carbide Exploit Exploit quantum quantum effects effects related related to to their their size size and and distribution distribution across across the the cell cell Optimize geometry of of the the nanoparticle networks to to enhance carrier carrier transport through resonant hopping between layers layers in in a cell cell Areas Areas of of Activity: Materials Preparation a b Materials Preparation Physical, Physical, Optical, Optical, and and Electronic Electronic Characterization Characterization Simulation Simulation and and Modeling: Modeling: Device Device Fabrication Fabrication

19 Exergy Flow of Planet Earth (TW): Biomass Resource Source: W. Hermann, GCEP Systems Analysis Group (1 ZJ = J)

20 Biofuels Biofuels possible significant contribution if we can use cellulose and/or lignins to make a liquid fuel. Ethanol from corn ~30% better than gasoline on CO 2 emissions (if credit given for byproducts). We have to get beyond ethanol from corn to have impact. Biodiesel will remain small if produced from seed oils Courtesy of Steve Long et al

21 Genetic Engineering of Cellulose Accumulation Chris Somerville Increase accumulation of cellulose and carbon uptake in biomass crops by genetic alteration of the regulation of cellulose synthesis Transgenic plants will be produced in which the components of the cellulose synthase complex are produced in increased amounts and at altered times during plant development. Cell walls Cellulose fibrils Electron micrograph of a cell wall Cellulose Synthase

22 Biohydrogen Generation Two approaches used for diverting light-driven flow of electrons from H 2 O to H 2 rather than CO 2 using Hydrogenase enzyme 1. Genetically engineer a bacterium by incorporating hydrogenase that is not inactivated by molecular oxygen Results to date: Achieved or partially demonstrated four of six steps required to establish methodology for searching through tens of thousands of candidate proteins to find those with property of O 2 tolerance

23 Microbial Synthesis of Biodiesel Chaitan Khosla Engineer E. E. coli colias as a microbial factory for for production of of fatty fatty acids: Increase carbon carbon flux flux (acetyl-coa) to to fatty fatty acid acid biosynthesis synthesis (malonyl-coa) by by expressing genes genes from from two two key key control control enzymes Biosynthesize fatty fatty acid acid alternatives (e.g. (e.g. aldehydes, esters esters and and lactones), using using existing fatty fatty acid acid pathways and and heterologous enzymes, and and evaluate their their quality quality and and potential as as biodiesel fuels fuels Co-express plant plant oleosin oleosingenes to to accumulate higher higher concentrations of of fatty fatty acids acids Glucose R O S-ACP Protein-bound Fatty Acids R Fatty Acid Esters R O O OR' H Fatty Aldehydes R Fatty Alcohols R H Alkanes OH Direct Direct biodiesel biodieselproduction from from biomass biomass feedstock feedstock using using engineered engineered microorganisms microorganisms could could have have both both a potentially potentially high high yield yield and and the the high high energy energy density density of of a hydrocarbon hydrocarbon

24 Exergy Flow of Planet Earth (TW): Fossil Hydrocarbon Resource Source: W. Hermann, GCEP Systems Analysis Group (1 ZJ = J)

25 Costs of Alternative Hydrocarbons Large fossil hydrocarbon reserves (particularly coal and oil shale) exist that could be converted to liquid fuels Costs are roughly comparable to current crude oil prices for coal conversion Source: Farrell & Brandt, Env. Res. Let. 1, 2006

26 Carbon Emissions of Alternative Hydrocarbon Emissions Production of alternative hydrocarbons from fossil hydrocarbons increases GHG emissions significantly Volumes of CO 2 storage required to mitigate the upstream emissions will be very large if coal and oil shales are used to offset a significant fraction of conventional hydrocarbon use. Source: Farrell & Brandt, Env. Res. Let. 1, 2006

27 Low-Irreversibility Engines Chris Edwards Two approaches are being pursued to develop reactive engines with significantly improved efficiency. 1. Reduction of irreversibility by positioning combustion to minimize entropy generation and maximize exergy extraction 2. Exploration of the possibility to develop a reversible expansion analog of the fuel cell. Diffusion Layer Anode Electrolyte Cathode Diffusion Layer H 2 O H 2 2H + 2e - 1/2O 2 2e - 2e - 1st Law Efficiency, η I (%) Isentropic 50% s PROD 75% s PROD 100% s PROD C H in Isothermal Low Irreversibility Engines π = 50 R P W c E H out Carnot Engine T (K) W out C W c R+P H in R P H out W out

28 Development of Innovative Gas Separation Membranes Through Sub-Nanoscale Control Koichi Yamada, Shingo Kazama, Katsunori Yogo (RITE) Hollow Hollow fiber fiber cardo cardopolymer membranes membranes are are optimized optimized for for both both CO CO 2 permeability and 2 permeability and selectivity: selectivity: A thin thin layer layer of of functional functional cardo cardo polyimide polyimide material material supported supported by by a a porous porous structure structure allows allows high high permeability permeability Carbonizing Carbonizing outer outer surface surface of of membrane membrane restricts restricts the the thermal thermal motion motion of of the the polymer polymer chain chain to to enhance enhance the the molecular molecular gate gate function function of of the the polymer. polymer. Functionalizing Functionalizing the the polymer polymer can can change change its its morphology morphology at at the the sub-nanoscale sub-nanoscale level, level, allowing allowing for for fine fine tuning tuning of of the the pore pore space. space. Apply Apply crystal crystal growth growth techniques techniques to to create create a thin, thin, mono-layer mono-layer inorganic inorganic membrane membrane with with an an ordered ordered lattice lattice of of pores pores 10 nm thick, pinhole-free separation layer 100μm 50 nm

29 What could be done with CO 2 from oxidation reactions? Options for Geologic Storage of CO 2 Oil and gas reservoirs: enhanced oil and gas recovery. Deep formations that contain salt water. Coal beds (adsorbed CO 2 replaces adsorbed CH 4 ). Image source: Dan McGee, Alberta Geological Survey

30 Geologic Storage of Carbon Dioxide in Coal Beds Jerry Harris, Tony Kovscek, Lynn Orr, Mark Zoback Theory and and experiment to to investigate fundamentals of of storage of of CO CO 2 in 2 in coalbeds: Measurement of of adsorption, geomechanical, transport, and and acoustic properties Geomechanics: interplay of of flow, flow, stress, stress, adsorption to to determine flow flow behavior in in cleat cleat system system Flow Flow prediction: modeling of of complex flows flows with with multicomponent adsorption in in fractured coals, coals, analysis of of coalbedfires Seismic monitoring of of subsurface coalbeds containing CO CO 2 2 Quantitative description description of of fundamental mechanisms that that control control placement placement and and storage storage of of CO CO 2 will allow 2 will allow assessment of of potential potential in in deep, deep, unmineablecoal coal seams seams

31 Conclusions Changing the world s energy systems to reduce GHG emissions is a big challenge, but it can by met by a sustained effort on many fronts. There is way too much coal in the world avoiding relying on it, or capturing and storing the CO 2 from it, is essential if we are to control atmospheric concentrations of CO 2. There is no single, simple solution to this challenge. There is much to do, but there is much that can be done, on a variety of time scales: Much better energy efficiency now Adding more renewable and low GHG technologies available now to the energy mix Research on a wide-ranging portfolio of energy resources and conversion methods for applications in the long term