Introducing the MATISSE Project

Transcription

1 Introducing the MATISSE Project What is ISA?

2 The MATISSE Project Funded in the 6th Framework Programme April 2005 March 2008 Project Coordinator: Jan Rotmans (DRIFT, NL) 22 Partners Project website:

3 The Demand for ISA As a complement to today s more routine and pragmatic approaches to sustainability assessment, we need strategic-level sustainability assessment, which we call: Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA)

4 The MATISSE Definition of ISA Integrated Sustainability Assessment ISA is a cyclical, participatory process of scoping, envisioning, experimenting and learning through which a shared interpretation of sustainability for a specific context is developed and applied in an integrated manner in order to explore solutions to persistent problems of unsustainable development.

5 The ISA Cycle Scoping stage Learning stage Envisioning stage Experimental stage The ISA cycle

6 Scoping Stage thourough definition of the persistent problem at stake integrated system analysis stakeholder analysis stakeholder input to refine understanding of the persistent problem, the policy context and the conceptual model differences in norms, values, perceptions of the project team and the stakeholders are examined

7 Envisioning Stage (acceptable) context-specific interpretation of sustainability different perspectives on the unsustainability problem made explicit vision- and scenario-development with stakeholders formulate explicit and implicit policy options for scenarios with stakeholders

8 Experimenting Stage test sustainability visions, policy proposals and transition pathways in terms of consistency, adequacy, robustness and feasibility stakeholders ensure saliency and can provide valuable input for the analysis of the results participatory modelling as a possibility to provide better representation

9 Evaluation and Learning learning experiences are made explicit basis and input for further ISA-iterations internal evaluation and views of stakeholders on ISA-process, tools and results social and individual learning processes are elicited evaluation on composition of stakeholdergroup and methods of engagement

10 Stakeholder Engagement ISA as a fundamentally participatory approach: Linking the worlds of knowledge and action is a central part of sustainability science Making sure that relevant questions are asked and relevant answers provided Clarifying and working with the different values of different communities

11 The four MATISSE Case Studies Agriculture, Forestry and Land-Use Water Dematerialisation Sustainable Technologies including hydrogen-based mobility and role of technology in accession countries

12 The Value of ISA ISA as a process to explore and reframe: stakeholder integration proved to be the basis for this endeavor, opens possibility to be innovative and explore new ways valuable fora to co-construct knowledge and elicit informed views of stakeholders goal-searching approach offers new opportunities not only for science, but as ISA is intended to initiate policy changes for societal development

13 Introducing the Case Study Transition to a sustainable mobility system and the role of hydrogen

14 Some Elements of the Problem Transport is responsible for 21% of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU15 (excluding international aviation and marine transport) (EEA, 2006). Between 1990 and 2004 emissions from domestic transport increased by about 26%. Road transport is the biggest transport emission source (93% share) and emissions increased continuously both for passenger transport (increase of 27% between 1990 and 2004) and for freight transport (increase of 51% between 1990 and 2003) (EEA, 2006).

15 And still increasing The number of cars has tripled in the last 30 years, with an increase of 3 million cars each year. Road freight transport growth in the EU is projected to continue, resulting in an increase in energy demand of more than 15% between 2000 and 2020

16 The SIA Approach SIA approach technology push model hydrogen itself is the goal environmental benefits reduces air pollution, lowers greenhouse gas emissions economic benefits competitive advantages, new market opportunities greater energy security Ignores possible feedbacks and rebound effects Ignores social relevance

17 The ISA Approach multiple perspectives model hydrogen itself is a means Integrated assessment environmental impacts nuclear waste [if produced from uranium feedstocks] use of platinum competition on biomass use social impacts accidents [due to vehicle noise reduction] increase travel costs [due to large investments]

18 Who are the stakeholders? Persons or groups with interests in a project or programme. Those ultimately affected by the results of the project (positively or negatively) Winners, losers, those involved in, influential in or excluded from decisionmaking processes

19 Exercise 1 20 Minutes: You are starting an ISA on transport and the possible role of hydrogen What is the scope of your assessment (time scale, spatial scale, main issues to be covered etc)? Who are the stakeholders?

20 Exercise 2 Creating a vision for 2030 Bearing in mind the scope of your assessment

21 Pathways to the vision What would need to happen by when in order for your vision to be achieved?

22 Some results from the Experimenting Stage in MATISSE Models used in the Case Study Econometric macro-economic model for impact assessment (ASTRA) System dynamic model for evaluation of policy support Multi-agent model for transition analysis

23 Results of the ASTRA Model Investments to shift the transport system towards hydrogen stimulate GDP and employment growth. Total life-cycle CO2 emissions of transport fuel decrease. Crude oil imports of the EU25 are reduced in the hydrogen scenario, while imports of natural gas increase, but by a lower value. Trade-off due to the increased usage of PGM metals to produce the fuel cells (the extraction and production of PGM leads to significant environmental impacts (e.g. CO2 emissions, mine spoils) outside Europe.

24 Platinum Use in Fuel Cell Vehicles

25 Using the world s platinum resources

26

27 Scenarios for Fuel Cell Vehicle Development

28 Innovative modelling approaches An innovative attempt to simulate transitions (i.e. radical, systemic change) within societal systems. The model structure is based on the multilevel perspective which encompasses three functional levels - niche, regime and landscape

29 Three levels The regime comprises dominant actors, institutions, practices and shared assumptions. At the micro-level, niches are the typical loci for radical innovation, operating at the periphery of, or outside, the dominant meso-level regime. The macro-level comprises a landscape of changing economic, ecological and cultural conditions, in which the regime may be more or less well-suited to fulfil its functions.

30 Using a transition model

31 Some results from MATISSE hydrogen might play significant but limited role societal problem rather than a technical problem requires integrated policy making congestion, land use, accidents, social exclusion requires long-term planning and systemic policies

32 Questions for Discussion Why do we need new tools for ISA? What kinds of trade-offs do results from experimenting show?

33 Evaluation and Learning Learning to do ISA (interviews with team) Learning from stakeholders (through workshops) Learning of stakeholders (elicited using questionnaires

34 Final Exercise As a stakeholder, you have just finished the first cycle of an ISA please fill out our stakeholder questionnaire! THANK YOU!