Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor.

Transcription

1 Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor. Disclosure: Paul Gipe has worked with Aerovironment, ANZSES, An Environmental Trust, APROMA, ASES, AusWEA, AWEA, David Blittersdorf, Jan & David Blittersdorf Foundation, BWEA, BWE, CanWEA, Canadian Co-operative Assoc., CAW, CEERT, Deutsche Bank, DGW, DSF, EECA, ES&T, GEO, GPI Atlantic, IREQ, KWEA, MADE, Microsoft, ManSEA, MSU, NRCan, NRG Systems, NASA, NREL, NZWEA, ORWWG, OSEA, Pembina, PG&E, SeaWest, SEI, TREC, USDOE, WAWWG, WE Energies, the Folkecenter, the Izaak Walton League, the Minnesota Project, the Sierra Club, World Future Council, and Zond Systems, and written for magazines in the USA, Canada, France, Denmark, and Germany.

2 Incentives for Geothermal? No! Feed-in Tariffs? Yes! By Paul Gipe Paul Paul Gipe, Gipe, wind-works.org wind-works.org Casa Diablo (Mammoth), California

3 Feed-in Tariffs The Philosophical Context Geothermal: Colline Metallifere, Italy

4 Do We Really Want Renewables? Colline Metallifere, Larderllo, Italy

5 Indonesian Crash Program Geothermal: 3,000 MW-4,000 MW 10,000 MW by ,000 jobs Solar: 2,000 MW New Hydro: 1,300 Biomass: 400 MW Wind: 300 MW Follows similar announcement by Saudi Arabia: 450 MW of Geothermal or Waste-to-Energy. Reykjanesvirkjum, Iceland

6 If Yes, Then What Works Best? Who Gets Contracts Elite Few or All Who Want Them? How To Pay For Them RECs/ROCs/Green Tags Subsidies (PTC, ITC) Advanced Renewable Tariffs --Differentiated Feed-in Tariffs Dunkerque, France

7 Market Mechanism Status Quotas (RPS & Tendering) Timid Targets Seldom Met Renewable Tariffs Once Only Non-Anglophone Countries Now Ontario & Great Britain Meeting Aggressive Targets Haverigg, Cumbria, Britain

8 Advanced Renewable Tariffs What Are They? Payment for Generation (Feed-in Tariffs) Political Price, Not Political Quota How Do They Work? Price Differentiation Where? Paying for Solar, Paying for Wind, Paying for Geothermal Colline Metallifere, Italy

9 Cumulative Feed-in Tariff Programs Worldwide Feed-in Tariffs Quotas (RPS, RES) Year REN 21: Renewables 2011 Global Status Report, pages

10 Renewable Tariff Design Simple, Comprehensible, & Transparent Priority Access & Purchase Lengths Sufficient for Profitability Prices Sufficient to Pay for Generation Fair But Not Undue Profit Through Price Differentiation Reykjanesvirkjum, Iceland

11 Renewable Tariff Design Price Differentiation For Different Technologies Flash? Dry Steam? Binary? For Different Applications For Different Sizes For Different Resource Intensities Or Resource Areas: Indonesia

12 Indonesia Geothermal Differentiated by Resource Area /kwh CAD/kWh USD/kWh Sumatra Java Papua Aceh North Maluku

13 Geothermal Tariffs Worldwide Summary Jurisdiction Years /kwh CAD/kWh USD/kWh Switzerland >20 MW Japan >15 MW Germany (all sizes) France <12 MW Italy<1 MW Slovakia Slovenia Greece Indonesia Papua? Ecuador Indonesia Sumatra? Spain Kenya Uganda Selected programs with contract terms of 15 years or longer.

14 Geothermal Tariffs Worldwide Summary Tariffs: $0.10/kWh to $0.40/kWh Terms: 15 years to 20 years Colline Metallifere, Larderllo, Italy

15 German Experience 2011 Transparency Capital Cost: $15,500/kW Intemediate Temperatures: ~ 0.27/kWh High Temperatures: ~ 0.20/kWh Yield: 8,000 kwh/kw/yr BMU: Erfahrungsbericht 2011 zum Eneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz. Landau, Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany

16 German Geothermal Business Forum Urged Scrapping Subsidy Urged Raising Tariff Simplifies Payment Reduces Bureaucracy Reduces Subsidy Risk (ITC Risk?) CDU/CSU-FDP Agreed Christian Conservatives & Neoliberals Landau, Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany

17 Geothermal Bonus Payments /kwh CAD/kWh USD/kWh Germany hot dry rock bonus France premium for heat content

18 Geothermal Size Differentiation Switzerland /kwh CAD/kWh USD/kWh <5 MW <10 MW <20 MW >20 MW

19 Geothermal in California World s Largest Installed Capacity Most Installed 1970s-1980s When Jerry Brown was First Governor RETI Study: 244 Possible Projects

20 California Renewable Generation TWh per Year Solar Wind Biomass Geothermal Total Non Hydro Year Geothermal: 13 TWh/yr; 4% of Supply

21 California Black & Veatch RETI Potential Geothermal Projects Size Projects MW TWh/yr <10 MW >10 MW<20 MW 68 1, >20 MW<25 MW >25 MW<50 MW 31 1, >50 MW<100 MW >100 MW<500 MW 9 1, >1000 MW 2 2, Source: Black & Veatch RETI

22 California Black & Veatch RETI Geothermal Potential <50 MW 90% of Potential Projects 3,300 MW (40%); 22 TWh/yr ~7% of Supply Total Potential 8,000 MW; 55 TWh/yr ~20% of Supply Yield: 7,000 kwh/kw/yr Coso Hot Springs, California

23 California Geothermal Prices Needed IPP with ITC $/kwh >100 MW<500 MW >50 MW<100 MW >25 MW<50 MW >20 MW<25 MW >10 MW<20 MW <10 MW Source: Black & Veatch RETI

24 California Geothermal Prices Needed IPP with No Subsidies >100 MW<500 MW $/kwh >50 MW<100 MW >25 MW<50 MW >20 MW<25 MW >10 MW<20 MW <10 MW Source: Black & Veatch RETI

25 California Geothermal Prices Needed IPP with No Subsidies <20 MW $0.13/kWh to $0.30/kWh >20 MW<50 MW $0.10/kWh to $0.18/kWh Colline Metallifere, Larderllo, Italy

26 Renewable Policy--Best Practice Bold Targets That Can Excite the Imagination Advanced Renewable Tariffs... A System of Feed-in Tariffs Casa Diablo (Mammoth), California

27 Comprehensive & Inclusive Wind & Solar Biomass & Geothermal Renewable Heat Wörstadt, Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany

28 Time for North Americans to Take the Road to the Future Freiburg, Germany

29 Gaspé Peninsula, Quebec No Time for Half-Measures No Time to Lose

30 Matane, Quebec We Need A Lot More Wind...

31 ... A Lot More Geothermal Geothermal: Colline Metallifere, Italy

32 "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing... after they have exhausted all other possibilities. --Winston Churchill