Renewable Energy in The Netherlands January 2015

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy in The Netherlands

2 Dr. Martien Visser Professor Energy Transition & Network Integration Hanze University of Applied Sciences Groningen Partner of the Energy Academy Europe This analyses contains information of various sources and own analyses, including various estimates. Readers are encouraged to add, to improve the quality of the information provided. Mar-15 Page 2

3 In a Nutshell On Sunday January 11 th, renewable power production peaked to 2% of total power demand. A record for The Netherlands. On Saturday January 1 th, renewable energy production peaked to 6% of the total energy demand (excluding feedstock and international shipping and aviation). In, power generation with Solar-PV was 5% higher than in January 214. In, wind power generation was equal to previous year. The relatively cold period in the 3 rd week of January coincided with a lack of wind and net power exports. Hence daily power generation by fossil fuels peaked to 35 GWh. In, temperatures were slightly higher than normal Mar-15 Page 3

4 Content January data Monthly profiles Monthly data Hourly data Miscellaneous Mar-15 Page 4

5 SELECTED ENERGY DATA FROM JANUARY Mar-15 Page 5

6 Final Energy Demand TWh Gas** Transport* Shipping* Power Feedstock* Industry* Aviation* Coal** Ren-Energy* Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, own analyses *estimated **excl. gas&coal-to-power Energy is used for many different purposes. The most important applications are heating/gas (35 TWh) and various forms of transport (27 TWh). Final energy demand, including sources that do not contribute to national CO2 targets, was 89 TWh. Renewables are given by comparison. Mar-15 Page 6

7 Final Energy Demand TWh versus January Gas** Transport* Shipping* Power Feedstock* Industry* Aviation* Coal** Ren-Energy* Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, own analyses *estimated **excl. gas&coal-to-power Final energy demand in was similar to that in January 214. Data on oil consumption are not yet available and have been estimated using extrapolations of monthly data which are available until October 214. Mar-15 Page 7

8 CO2 Emissions Mton CO Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, RIVM, CE-Delft, own analyses *do not contribute to the national CO2 target ** excl. gas & coal to power In, the estimated national CO2 emission (excluding power imports, feedstock and international shipping & aviation) was estimated at 16.3 Mton. Slightly higher than in January 214 (15.7 Mton). Main reason is more national power production, due to less power imports. Mar-15 Page 8

9 Power Generation Capacity MW Gas Coal Wind Biomass* Solar Nuclear Sources: TenneT, GTS, CBS, KNMI, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, Windstats, own analyses In the installed power generation capacity was 2476 MW, significantly lower than in January 214. Gas capacity decreased, Solar PV (+5%) and wind capacity (+6%) have increased in 214. Mar-15 Page 9

10 Power Supplies TWh NatGas Coal Wind solar-pv Biomass Nuclear Net imports Sources: TenneT, GTS, CBS, KNMI, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, own analyses In, power consumption in 214 was 1.8 TWh, 2% higher than in January 214. Net imports decreased significantly and coal- and gas-fired production increased. The average contribution from renewable energy to power demand is estimated 9.6%. Mar-15 Page 1

11 SELECTED MONTHLY PROFILES (using daily data) Mar-15 Page 11

12 Gas and Power Demand GWh Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Power Gas* Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, etc.. own analyses *excluding gas-to-power Daily power demand shows a typical week-weekend pattern. Daily gas demand (excluding the gas demand for power) is mainly used for the heating market and affected by ambient temperature. Mar-15 Page 12

13 Conventional Power Production GWh Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Coal Gas Nuclear Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, Windstats, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analyses Daily conventional power generation peaked in January. This was a week with relative low wind production and low net power imports. Mar-15 Page 13

14 Wind and Solar Power Production GWh Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Wind Solar-PV Sources: TenneT, Windstats, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses Daily Wind Production peaked to 53 GWh on January 1 th. 1 GWh is sufficient to provide electricity for a year to 3 households Mar-15 Page 14

15 Contribution of Renewable Energy 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Ren% Power Ren% Prim. Sources: CBS, GTS, TenneT, Windstats, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc.., own analyses On January 11 th the contribution of Renewable Power to the total power demand peaked to 2%. One day earlier, the contribution of all renewable energy forms to the primary energy demand peaked to 6%. Variations in renewable power originate mainly from variations in wind. Mar-15 Page 15

16 SELECTED MONTHLY ENERGY DATA Mar-15 Page 16

17 Gas Demand 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses In gas demand (excluding the gas demand for power production) was equal to January 214. Mar-15 Page 17

18 Gas Production 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, own analyses In, gas production was lower than in January 214. Production is higher than consumption because of gas exports to neighboring countries. Mar-15 Page 18

19 Power Demand 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: TenneT, CBS, own analyses In, power demand was 2% higher than in January 214 Mar-15 Page 19

20 Wind Production 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: CertiQ, KNMI, own analyses In, wind power generation was equal to January 214. The moderate increase in wind capacity was compensated by slightly less wind. Mar-15 Page 2

21 Solar PV Production 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: PolderPV.nl, CertiQ, Klimaatmonitor, KNMI, own analyses In, Solar PV was low, although 5% higher than in January 214, due to a significant increase of Solar PV capacity. Mar-15 Page 21

22 Coal-to-Power 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses Estimated power production by coal-fired power stations has increased compared to previous year. Coal demand for power generation is difficult to estimate because the status of the new coal-fired power stations is not publicly known. Mar-15 Page 23

23 Gas to Power 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses Estimated power production by gas-fired power stations and cogeneration has increased compared to previous year. Decreased power imports, compared to previous year, have been compensated by an increased use of gas for power. Mar-15 Page 22

24 Renewable Energy All Sources 215 (and 214) TWh (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses In, total renewable energy (EU norms) was about 2.4 TWh (wind, solar, hydro, biomass, others). The production of renewable energy is slightly lower than in January 214, due to a lower contribution from biomass. Mar-15 Page 24

25 Renewable Energy Percentage 215 (and 214) 6% 215 (214) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses In, the estimated national percentage of renewable energy as fraction of total primary energy demand has been estimated at 3.6% (EU norms). In this calculation, energy demand covered by electricity imports, feedstock and international shipping and aviation have been neglected. Mar-15 Page 25

26 CO2 Emissions 215 (and 214) Mton (214) Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, CE-Delft, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses In, CO2 emissions are higher than in January 214. The main reason is that less power is imported and thus, more power had to be produced in The Netherlands. Imported power does not contribute to the national CO2 balance. Contributions from feedstock and international shipping and aviation are not taken into account. Mar-15 Page 26

27 SELECTED HOURLY ENERGY DATA Mar-15 Page 27

28 Gas Supply MWh Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Sources: GTS, own analyses Gas Production Gas import LNG Terminals Production Storages In, hourly gas production peaked at 18. MW (18 GW) Mar-15 Page 28

29 Gas Demand Including Gas-to-Power MWh Gas Demand 1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Industry LDC points Sources: GTS, own analyses On January 24 th, gas demand in The Netherlands peaked to 1. MW (1 GW). The peak in gas demand was caused by a combination of relatively low temperatures and high demand of gas from the power sector. Mar-15 Page 29

30 Gas Imports & Exports MWh Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Gas export Gas import Sources: GTS, own analyses In, gas exports were 63 TWh, equal to 14% of national demand. Gas imports were 17 TWh. Gas exports peaked at January 24 th to 115. MW (115 GW). Mar-15 Page 3

31 Power Imports & Exports MWh Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Power import Power export Sources: TenneT, own analyses In, power imports were 1.9 TWh, equal to 18% of national demand. Total power exports were 1.4 TWh. Power exports peaked to 4 MW on January 2 th. Mar-15 Page 31

32 Power Generation MW Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Net import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGas sources: CBS, TenneT, KNMI, GTS, CertiQ, etc. & own analyses Data are added In the week of 2-24 January, power generation peaked, due to the net exports that occurred. The majority of the additional power generation has been generated by gasfired installations. Mar-15 Page 32

33 Wind Power MW 25 2 Wind Power Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Sources: Windstats, KNMI, own analyses In, wins energy peaked to 235 MW. Wind power generation varied widely in January. Mar-15 Page 33

34 Solar PV Power MW Solar Power 1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Sources: PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses At the end of January, power generation by Solar-PV peaked at 25 MW. In January 214, the peak in Solar-PV power generation was (only) 14 MW. Days in January are short. Thus, solar production occurs only on a limited amount of hours. Mar-15 Page 34

35 The following set of slides presents for each week in 215 the hourly contributions of wind and solar-pv to the total power consumption in The Netherlands. Mar-15 Page 35

36 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Jan 6-Jan 7-Jan 8-Jan 9-Jan 1-Jan 11-Jan Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, Windstats, Klimaatmonitor, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses Mar-15 Page 36

37 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, Windstats, Klimaatmonitor, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses Mar-15 Page 37

38 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Jan 2-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, Windstats, Klimaatmonitor, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses Mar-15 Page 38

39 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 215 MWh Jan 27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 3-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb Rest Wind solar-pv Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, Windstats, Klimaatmonitor, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analyses Mar-15 Page 39

40 MISCELLANEOUS Mar-15 Page 4

41 Effective Temperature o C Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan Sources: KNMI, own analyses The effective temperature (temperature including wind shield factor) in. Mar-15 Page 41

42 Fuel Specific CO2 Emissions g/kwh Sources: CE-Delft, own analyses Fuels Power Generation Characteristic CO2 emissions used in this presentation. Mar-15 Page 42

43 Epilogue This presentation is based on numerous sources which present data on energy demand and supply in The Netherlands. These data, however, do not cover the entire energy system. Some approximations and scaling factors were thus needed. The author would like to thank students from Hanze University of Applied Science in Groningen and various energy experts in The Netherlands which gave suggestions for improvements of the methods used. Currently, the aggregated results of this work are in good agreement with data supplied by the Dutch National Office of Statistics (CBS). It is believed by the author that the detailed results in this presentation give a fair presentation of the complex reality of the Dutch energy system. Nevertheless, the author invites readers to comment on the data provided with the objective to further improve this work. After all, good and reliable data are at the heart of any successful policy to make our world more sustainable. Mar-15 Page 43