Integrated Resource Plan Technical Advisory Committee. Meeting October 3, 2016

Transcription

1 Integrated Resurce Plan Technical Advisry Cmmittee Meeting Octber 3, 2016

2 Recap frm Last Meeting We met n March 30, 2016, after the interim RRA filing, but befre the final update n the lad frecast, and befre the release f the Climate Leadership Plan Discussed the review f the 2013 IRP: A cmmitment in the 2013 IRP Clean Energy Strategy Intentin t cnsider if new acquisitins are needed befre 2018 IRP Nt t address actins in the RRA F2017 F2019 perid Pending any surprises expected n new acquisitins needed in advance f what will be determined in the 2018 IRP Discussed/gathered initial thughts n issues lking ahead t 2018 Tday, we will be cmpleting the review f the 2013 IRP 2

3 Meeting Agenda Time Item Presenter 9:00 9:15 Welcme Anne Wilsn / Randy Reimann 9:15 10:15 Lad Frecast What s changed? Jhn Rich 10:15 10:30 Break 10:30 11:15 Lad Resurce Balance cmpleting the review f the 2013 IRP Kathy Lee What s changed? Status f IRP actins Climate Leadership Plan 11:15 11: IRP Key cnsideratins and activities Kathy Lee 11:45 12:00 Clse and next steps Anne Wilsn 3

4 Lad Frecast Jhn Rich

5 LOAD FORECAST Summary May 2016 Lad Frecast (published in F17 t F19 RRA) reflects infrmatin up t April 2016 Frecast cntinues t see grwth acrss all three sectrs, hwever, grwth rate is lwer relative t the 2013 Integrated Resurce Plan (IRP) May 2016 Lad Frecast befre demand-side management (DSM) with lsses, is lwer by abut 4,100 GWh r abut 5% relative t the IRP frecast (by F2033), mstly due t a decline in the transmissin sectr Cre methdlgy remains unchanged May 2016 LNG frecast is based n public infrmatin n lads and timing fr service After cnsideratin f DSM savings, the frecast f lad grwth is similar t ther Nrth American utilities 5

6 May 2016 (RRA) vs IRP Lad Frecast Befre DSM Ttal Integrated Requirements with LNG 100,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 GWh F2023 F2024 F2025 F2026 F2027 F2028 F2029 F2030 F2031 F2032 F2033 IRP Mid IRP Mid Uncertainty Range May 2016 Mid May 2016 Mid Uncertainty Range The slid lines shwn in the graph are the mid frecasts The drp in the tw frecasts is mainly due t a change in cmmdity prices and its impact n industrial lads *The IRP Mid Frecast, shwn in the graph, reflects estimates f the DSM savings prir t F2016, and the assciated persistence ver the frecast perid. This applies t all graphs. 6

7 Frecast Difference Breakdwn Ttal Firm Sales May 2016 vs IRP Befre DSM 80,000 75,000 70,000 GWh 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 F2023 F2024 F2025 F2026 F2027 F2028 F2029 F2030 F2031 F2032 F2033 IRP Mid Distributin & Other Utilities Mining May 2016 Mid Other Transmissin Oil & Gas Frestry LNG Transmissin sectr accunts fr mst the change In the lng term, LNG lad frecast is abut the same 7

8 Residential Frecast May 2016 vs IRP Befre DSM 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 GWh 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 Frecast = Use per Accunt X Accunts 18,000 17,000 F2033 F2032 F2031 F2030 F2029 F2028 F2027 F2026 F2025 F2024 F2023 F2022 F2021 F2020 F2019 F2018 F2017 May 2016 Mid Mid IRP Bth drivers f the frecast (use per accunt) and accunts are lwer relative t the previus frecast 8

9 Use Per Accunt and Accunts Frecasts May 2016 vs IRP kwh per Accunt 11,600 11,400 11,200 11,000 10,800 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 Accunts 2,300,000 2,200,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 F2033 F2031 F2029 F2027 F2025 F2023 F2021 F2019 F2017 F2033 F2032 F2031 F2030 F2029 F2028 F2027 F2026 F2025 F2024 F2023 F2022 F2021 F2020 F2019 F2018 F2017 May 2016 Mid IRP Mid May 2016 Mid IRP Mid Changes between frecast mainly due t: Current frecast starts frm a lwer pint as grwth in use per accunt has slwed Changes between frecast mainly due t: Revised ecnmic prjectin and ppulatin prjectins Revised assumptin n average efficiency f appliances enhanced efficiency prjectin Replacement f hme cmputers with tablets 9

10 GWh General Sales Frecast May 2016 vs IRP Befre DSM 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 Lad frecast is 80% cmmercial distributin sales develped by SAE mdel, and 20% industrial distributin sales develped by regressin and prductin estimates 17,000 F2033 F2032 F2031 F2030 F2029 F2028 F2027 F2026 F2025 F2024 F2023 F2022 F2021 F2020 F2019 F2018 F2017 May 2016 Mid Mid IRP Changes between frecast due t: Frecast starts frm a lwer pint; slwer grwth than anticipated Revised ecnmic frecast: slwer prjected grwth in drivers Prjected increase in average efficiency in cmmercial end use f electricity 10

11 Real GDP Frecast Grwth Prjectins 6.0% 5.0% Annual Rate Grwth 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Use in May 2016 Fcst Used in Dec 2012 Fcst IRP frecast anticipated early develpment f LNG industry and investment relative t the May 2016 frecast Increase in real GDP grwth is due an increase in capital investment in nrthern B.C. this is nt a driver f sales in the Lwer Mainland 11

12 Transmissin Sales* May 2016 vs IRP Befre DSM GWh 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 F2033 F2032 F2031 F2030 F2029 F2028 F2027 F2026 F2025 F2024 F2023 F2022 F2021 F2020 F2019 F2018 F2017 F2016 F2015 F2014 F2013 F2012 F2011 F2010 F2009 F2008 F2007 F2006 F2005 F2004 May 2016 Mid IRP Mid Over the 20 year frecast perid, the average differences is: Oil and Gas: Lwer by 1,000 r 28% due t delays in gas prjects, LNG develpments, reduced expectatins n il pipeline prjects Mining: Lwer by abut 950 r 26% due t lwer cmmdities prices and delays in prjects requesting electricity service Frestry: Lwer by 1,500 r 41% due t lss in base lad, lwer cmmdity expectatins, and reduced ut lk fr majr mills Other: Lwer by 200 r 4% due t push back in expansin at majr prts * LNG lad nt included in cmparisn

13 Cmmdity prices reduced frecasts 13

14 Oil and Gas* May 2016 vs IRP Befre DSM GWh 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 F2023 F2024 F2025 F2026 F2027 F2028 May 2016 Mid IRP Mid F2029 F2030 F2031 F2032 F2033 Gas Sectr Dmestic gas markets currently ver supplied, and LNG plants deferred in service Bth f these has led t delays and reductins in upstream gas prjects Pipeline Sectr Remved prpsed Enbridge pipeline prject frm the frecast; prject is nt in intercnnectin queue * LNG nt included in cmparisn

15 Nrth American Natural Gas The supply situatin: a US gas basin perspective Natural Gas price ( ) US gas prductin slwing due t versupply 15

16 Mining May 2016 vs IRP Befre DSM GWh 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 Frecast difference: Lwer cmmdity price utlks fr metals and cal Deferrals f new prject in-service dates Deferred restarts f currently idled prductin (Endak) Recent annunced shutdwns (including Huckleberry and Cal Muntain) 3,000 F2033 F2032 F2031 F2030 F2029 F2028 F2027 F2026 F2025 F2024 F2023 F2022 F2021 F2020 F2019 F2018 F2017 May 2016 Mid IRP Mid

17 Cmmdity Price Histry 17

18 Pulp & Paper, Wd, and Chemicals GWh 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 F2023 F2024 F2025 F2026 F2027 F2028 F2029 F2030 F2031 F2032 F2033 Key pints: Lss f base lad; clsure f TMP facilities at Hwe Sund Cntinued weakness, especially in pulp sectr due t cntinued decline in demand fr newsprint and cmpetitin frm ther parts f the wrld ( Eucalyptus Kraft Pulp Capacity in Latin America) Reduced utlk n ther TMP mills May 2016 Mid IRP Mid

19 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) May 2016 vs IRP 3,500 Key pints: 3,000 2,500 LNG industry is high prfiled GWh 2,000 1,500 1, F2033 F2032 F2031 F2030 F2029 F2028 F2027 F2026 F2025 F2024 F2023 F2022 F2021 F2020 F2019 F2018 F2017 LNG industry is in a dynamic develpment stage May 2016 frecast reflects public infrmatin n lad and in service dates, frm three majr LNG prpnents which have requested electricity service frm BC Hydr May 2016 LNG IRP LNG 19

20 Ttal Firm Sales Grwth May 2016 Frecast Befre and With DSM 75,000 Key pints: 70,000 Histry Frecast There was majr mill attritin ver the last 10 years 65,000 GWh 60,000 Itrn survey data shws the frecast average grwth rate, frm 60 varius utilities, is abut 1% per year 55,000 Majr Mill Attritin 50,000 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 F2023 F2024 F2025 F2026 F2027 F2028 F2029 F2030 F2031 F2032 F2033 F2034 F2035 F2036 May 2016 Mid Befre DSM May Mid 2016 After DSM 20 WITHOUT LNG WITHOUT LNG WITH LNG WITH LNG BEFORE DSM WITH DSM BEFORE DSMWITH DSM 10 YR HISTORY 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 10 YR FCST 1.7% 0.9% 2.1% 1.3% 20 YR FCST 1.5% 1.1% 1.7% 1.3%

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22 Lad Resurce Balance Cmpleting the Review f the 2013 IRP Kathy Lee

23 Lad Resurce Balances Overview There is a greater r earlier need fr capacity than energy Sufficient resurces planned t meet need until late 2020s Befre planned resurces, need fr energy in F2022 and capacity in F2020 After planned resurces per Recmmended Actins in 2013 apprved IRP, sufficient energy until F2034 and capacity until F2029 Lad Resurce Balance in F2017 t F2019 Revenue Requirement Applicatin 23

24 Lad Resurce Balance Changes since the 2013 IRP Changes since 2013 (in additin t the lad frecast): Site C Demand-side management Independent Pwer Prducer Supply Majr Maintenance Under cnstructin, with expected in service date fr all units by F2025 (ne year delay cmpared t 2013 IRP) Energy savings frm cnservatin rates less than frecasted, but energy saving frm cdes and standards have increased Expected supply has increased, fr example, mre prjects reached cmpletin than expected Mica Units 1 t 4 maintenance will require taking ne unit ut f service at a time fr 12 t 18 mnths each i.e., abut 400 MW f dependable capacity unavailable up t six years (starting in F2025) 24

25 Changes in the Lad Resurce Balance since 2013 IRP Additinal changes t the lad resurce balance: Nrth Cast Capacity Additins: Assumed nne befre end f fiscal 2024 (cmpared t 400 MW estimated in 2013 IRP). BC Hydr will cntinue t assess reginal needs. Demand-Side Management (DSM): BC Hydr cntinued a mderatin strategy by reducing planned DSM expenditures t achieve cst savings, keep rates lw and respnd t custmer and system needs (cnsistent with Gvernment s expectatins per Minister s Letter f Supprt n DSM dated December 16, 2015). The DSM expenditures prpsed in RRA reflect the fllwing bjectives/apprach: exceed the at least 66% cnservatin bjective in the CEA prvide access t cnservatin pprtunities and infrmatin fr all custmer grups discntinue r reduce prgrams that are nt as cst-effective and have served their purpse, reduce marketing dllars and adjust certain ffers supprt areas best suited t meet evlving custmer and resurce needs such as building cdes and standards, capacity-fcused DSM and custmer energy management slutins leverage investments in smart meters and a smart grid by prviding custmers with the infrmatin they need t make smart energy chices 25

26 At least 66% Cnservatin Objective Clean Energy Act bjective t reduce expected increase in demand fr electricity by year 2020 by at least 66% [by F2021 frm F2008] Metric is highly sensitive t lad frecast - has been highly variable Currently at 106% (based n mid Lad Frecast withut LNG, cnsistent with IRP and Minister s understanding) 90%, if based n mid Lad Frecast with LNG 2013 IRP DSM Plan (RRA) % Lad Grwth at F2021 (mid LF, w LNG) 116% 106% % Lad Grwth at F2021 (high LF, w LNG) 64% 59% % Lad Grwth at F2022 (mid LF, w LNG) 85% 76% 26

27 Status f 2013 IRP Actins Other highlights Actins Optimize existing prtfli f IPP resurces Clean Energy Strategy Advance a set f actins t supprt a healthy, diverse clean energy sectr, and prmte clean energy pprtunities fr First Natins cmmunities. Review f the 2013 IRP t assess whether new infrmatin is bserved t warrant an update t the Nvember 2013 IRP n the recmmendatin f a new energy call. Update Pursuing renewal f expiring EPAs SOP Optimizatin prcess underway t determine ways fr the prgram t better reflect technlgical advancements, changing system needs, and t find cst savings t keep rates lw. Cmpleting the IRP review tday (cncluding in later slides that n need fr additinal acquisitin befre 2018 IRP) 27

28 Status f 2013 IRP Actins Other highlights Actin Advance Revelstke Unit 6 resurce smart prject Update Nw included in Base Resurce Plan with in service date f F2027 Cntinue t maintain earliest in service date (F2022, ne year delay frm IRP) Pursue DSM capacity cnservatin Lad curtailment pilt with industrial custmers Year 2 Demand respnse pilt with residential and cmmercial custmers is underway Advance reinfrcement alng existing GMS-WSN-KLY 500 kv transmissin line t be available by F2024 Reinfrce Suth Peace transmissin netwrk t meet expected lad Currently in early stage f identificatin phase Peace Regin Electricity Supply (PRES) prject in feasibility stage Advance reinfrcement f the transmissin line frm Prince Gerge t Terrace, including the develpment f three new series capacitr statins and imprvements t the existing substatins t be available by F On hld this prject is funded by LNG Canada wh has delayed its final investment decisin

29 Climate Leadership Plan Released by gvernment August 18, 2016 Re-affirms the 2050 emissins reductin target f 80 per cent belw 2007 levels 21 initial actins t reduce emissins and t create green jbs BC Hydr can supprt a number f Climate Leadership Plan actins (directly r indirectly): Incentives fr purchasing a clean energy vehicle Supprting vehicle charging develpment fr zer emissin vehicles 10-year plan t imprve B.C. s transprtatin netwrk (expanding transit) Encuraging develpment f net zer buildings Reducing Emissins and Planning fr Adaptatin in the Public Sectr Making B.C. s electricity 100% renewable r clean (100% Clean) Using electricity t pwer natural gas prductin and prcessing (Electrify upstream gas) Efficient electrificatin 29

30 Climate Leadership Plan Additinal details n actins mst relevant t electricity planning 100% Clean Ging frward, 100% f the supply f electricity acquired by BC Hydr in B.C. fr the integrated grid must be frm clean r renewable surces, Except where cncerns regarding reliability r csts must be addressed Acquisitin f electricity frm any surce in B.C. that is nt clean r renewable must be apprved by gvernment thrugh an Integrated Resurce Plan 30

31 Climate Leadership Plan Additinal details n actins mst relevant t electricity planning ELECTRIFY UPSTREAM GAS B.C. gvernment is in dialgue with the federal gvernment t prvide the necessary capital t develp the required infrastructures (e.g. Peace Regin Electricity Supply, Nrth Mntney Pwer Supply Prject). Cnstructin f this infrastructure wuld begin nce LNG cmpanies make their final investment decisins Prgrams are being develped t clse the gap between electricity and natural gas csts EFFICIENT ELECTRIFICATION B.C. gvernment is wrking with BC Hydr t expand the mandate f its DSM prgrams t include investments that increase efficiency and reduce GHG emissins 31

32 Climate Leadership Plan (CLP) (Plicy actins, nt yet legislated) What des CLP mean fr Resurce Planning? Any IRP change needed befre 2018 IRP? N Further need can be addressed in 2018 IRP (see later slide fr mre capacity ptins) Changes in demand fr electricity: due t electrificatin (e.g., in the transprtatin sectr, il and gas sectr, emissins reductin plans), and Expect t have sufficient energy resurces t supprt the CLP in the near term: Expect greater need fr capacity resurces but IRP actins are prepared fr this: due t mre efficient buildings Changes expected t be gradual as initiatives are being put in place Explre cst effective clean capacity ptins: New capacity resurces are needed after Revelstke 6 (~F2029 n an expected basis based n LRB in RRA, but sner given CLP and under cntingency cnditins) Default: Revelstke 6 IRP is maintaining earliest in service date f F2022 Alternatives (if reliable and mre cst effective): capacity fcused DSM r rate ptins the remaining 50% capacity frm bimass renewal new greenfield Next supply side clean capacity ptin has a large step up in cst. 32

33 Energy LRB with planned resurces Includes: Site C (under cnstructin) And planned resurces: DSM EPA renewals Standing Offer Prgram F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 F2023 F2024 F2025 F2026 F2027 F2028 F2029 F2030 F2031 F2032 F2033 F2034 F2035 F RRA planning margin as a % f Net Lad 113% 115% 115% 114% 111% 108% 106% 105% 109% 110% 109% 107% 106% 105% 103% 102% 101% 99.9% 99% 97%

34 Capacity LRB with planned resurces Als includes Revelstke Unit 6 Cst effective bridging ptin t Site C by relying n the market fr shrt term

35 Climate Leadership Plan Additinal BC Hydr invlvements T expand the rle f DSM prgrams t supprt Efficient Electrificatin Sectin 18 f the Clean Energy Act enables undertakings fr the purpse f reducing GHG in B.C. BC Hydr currently in discussins with gvernment and custmers t explre the ptential Be prepared t develp required infrastructure t electrify upstream gas Prvincial gvernment has requested federal funding BC Hydr in feasibility phase fr the Peace Regin Electricity Supply prject Supprt vehicle charging develpment fr zer emissin vehicles BC Hydr has installed 30 Direct Current Fast Charging netwrk f statins and is planning fr expansin Be prepared t develp mandated 10-year emissins reductin and adaptatin plans fr prvincial public sectr peratins 35

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37 2018 IRP Kathy Lee

38 2018 IRP key cnsideratins Planning envirnment cntinues t evlve, with new uncertainties f ptential paradigm shifts facing the industry tday Key uncertainties include: Market Evlutin e.g. Alberta pprtunities, U.S. Climate Change Mitigatin (plicies), adaptatin (impacts) Cmmdity Prices e.g., il, gas prices Rapid Technlgical Advancements distributed energy resurces e.g., slar, battery strage, electric vehicles mre r less lad and its interactin with the grid ICT* Imprvements & Deplyment e.g. smart meters/grid Changing Custmer Preferences e.g., mre chices, envirnmentally cnscience Industry Evlutin Declining lad grwth, new industries Tpics t address include: Demand-side management target beynd 2020 Evlving system needs and market cnditins e.g., freshet, capacity characteristics, lcatinal value, grid requirements (T&D), Califrnia slar integratin challenge In preparatin f the 2018 IRP, BC Hydr will explre future wrlds (scenaris) and is cntemplating the prcess fr engagement. * Infrmatin & Cmmunicatins Technlgy

39 2018 IRP Distributed Energy Resurces Cntinue t mnitr technlgy/market develpment (particularly batteries, slar) Mre inf n slar: In US, significant custmer adptin and annual grwth f new distributed generatin slar installatin ver last decade 2.2 GW f new residential installatins in 2015, 2.7 GW expected in 2016 Attracting custmers t displace electricity purchase frm the grid In B.C., adptin f residential slar in the Net Metering Prgram has been negligible but is grwing Relative t the US, B.C. has a prer slar resurce, lack f financial incentives and higher cst f system installatin (nascent market) Prjects in the Net Metering Prgram are mstly slar PV prjects Slar Uptake in B.C. Net Metering Prgram Tday (2016): 783 Slar Custmers 4.3 MW Installed Custmer adptin? Rate design? Grid impacts? Emerging business mdels?

40 2018 IRP Resurce Optins Inventry Explre cst effective clean capacity ptins (particularly given Climate Leadership Plan) Lad curtailment Capacity fcused DSM prgram pilt Rate design ptins: Engagement with cmmercial custmers t explre interruptible rate ptins (BCUC Order) Other ptinal rate t manage capacity need Emerging ptins: Distributed energy strage Electric Vehicles integratin as a resurce ptin Cntinue t mnitr technlgy/market develpment Results f Resurce Optins update t be psted at by mid Octber

41 2018 IRP Climate Change Tw essential aspects f the climate change dialgue Mitigatin An anthrpgenic (human) interventin t reduce the surces r enhance the sinks f greenhuse gases Adaptatin Adjustment in respnse t actual r expected climatic stimuli r their effects, which mderates harm r explits beneficial pprtunities. * As defined by Internatinal Panel n Climate Change (IPCC)

42 2018 IRP Climate Change Mitigatin Driven by gvernment plicies such as the Climate Leadership Plan, and legislative and reprting requirements Adaptatin Driven by crprate due diligence and requirements t have an adaptatin plan per Climate Leadership Plan Climate change impacts & implicatins fr IRP: Changes t water supply and average temperatures can impact Primary cntributin includes acquiring DSM and clean supply side resurces t meet demand, supprting electrificatin etc. resurce adequacy (e.g. generatin, lad) Changes t weather patterns (severity e.g. increased strm events) can impact infrastructure resiliency (e.g. system reliability) BC Hydr cntinues t adjust the IRP as necessary t supprt gvernment plicies BC Hydr has been cllabrating with Pacific Climate Impacts Cnsrtium (PCIC) n climate/weather mdelling t understand climate change impacts: Previus study shws, by 2050, there will be a mdest increase in annual water supply, and significant change in runff timing 42 BC Hydr cntinues t wrk with PCIC t understand the impact f the updated Internatinal Panel n Climate Change (IPCC) emissin/climate scenaris, and will advancing the understanding f impacts n ur system s t guide ur adaptatin effrts (t ensure resurce adequacy and system resiliency)

43 2018 IRP Demand-Side Management Target beynd 2020 Minister expects BC Hydr t cnsult n a new lng-term cnservatin target, beynd 2020, thrugh the 2018 IRP prcess Opprtunity fr a mre stable and meaningful metric, especially given barder mandate Cnservatin Ptential Review (CPR) is underway and will infrm 2018 IRP A study that estimates the cnservatin ptential f electricity and natural gas cnsumptin ver a perid f 20 years Jint effrt between BC Utilities including BC Hydr, FrtisBC Electric, FrtisBC Gas, and Pacific Nrthern Gas Target t review draft results with CPR Technical Cmmittee in Nvember Target t finalize CPR late 2016 Future DSM ptins Will crdinate engagement with IRP TAC and Energy Cnservatin & Efficiency Cmmittee Will discuss assessing uncertainties and flexibility

44 2018 IRP Timeline & Next Steps RRA IRs-1 IRs-2 Hearing Review f the 2013 IRP 2018 IRP Scping Develp wrk plan and engagement plan Studies, inputs and analysis Draft and revise Next meeting Spring 2017 Objective t review/discuss 2018 IRP draft wrk plan

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