Plugging Ontario Into A Green Future

Transcription

1 Plugging Ontario Into A Green Future A Renewable i Doable Action Plan Cherie Burda, THE PEMBINA INSTITUTE and Roger Peter NOVEMBER 2008 CANADIAN ENVIRONMENTAL LAW ASSOCIATION L ASSOCIATION CANADIENNE DU DROIT DE L ENVIRONNEMENT

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3 Plugging Ontario Into A Green Future A RENEWABLE IS DOABLE ACTION PLAN Cherie Burda, The Pembina Intitute and Roger Peter NOVEMBER 2008 CANADIAN ENVIRONMENTAL LAW ASSOCIATION L ASSOCIATION CANADIENNE DU DROIT DE L ENVIRONNEMENT

4 Burda, Cherie and Peter, Roger Plugging Ontario into a Green Future 1t Edition, publihed November 2008 Printed in Canada Production management: Lori Chamberland Editor: Margaret Chandler Deign/Layout: J & W Communication Cover Photo: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2008 The Pembina Foundation ISBN For more information about thi report pleae contact The Pembina Intitute Suite Spadina Avenue Toronto, Ontario Canada, M5T 2C7 Phone: info@pembina.org Download additional copie of thi publication from the Pembina Intitute webite: and renewableidoable.com. About Renewable I Doable Renewable I Doable i a joint inititative of the Pembina Intitute and World Wildlife Fund. It ha now grown to include the David Suzuki Foundation, Greenpeace, Sierra Club and the Canadian Environmental Law Aociation. For more information about thi publication and the Renewable i Doable campaign viit CANADIAN ENVIRONMENTAL LAW ASSOCIATION L ASSOCIATION CANADIENNE DU DROIT DE L ENVIRONNEMENT i i P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

5 About the Lead Author Cherie Burda Cherie joined Pembina after over 14 year working on environmental policy and legilative olution in Britih Columbia. Now in Ontario, Cherie direct reearch and implementation trategie for utainable energy olution in Ontario, including green upply option for the Ontario electricity ector and policy initiative for urban utainability. Cherie hold a B.Sc. in Environmental Science, an MA in environmental law and policy, and a B.Ed. Roger Peter Roger Peter i a Senior Policy Advior to the Pembina Intitute, a Canadian policy reearch and advocacy organization pecializing in utainable energy olution. Roger ha 30 year experience in energy efficiency and renewable energy a a conultant, reearcher, writer, policy advior, and advocate. In 2005, Roger helped to create the Canadian Renewable Energy Alliance, a joint initiative of Canadian NGO who upport a global tranition to renewable energy. The Alliance publihed a model Canadian Renewable Energy Strategy in 2006 and i actively engaged in prompting more Canadian upport for renewable energy. Roger ha ignificant international experience in Aia, Latin America and Africa on energy efficiency and rural energy project. Acknowledgement We wih to thank the following peer reviewer who gave generouly of their time in providing information and advice: Ralph Torrie, Marion Fraer and David Poch. Special acknowledgement goe to our project partner Keith Stewart of WWF-Canada and Shawn-Patrick Stenil of Greenpeace for detailed contribution and ongoing guidance. Thank you to Graham Haine of the Pembina Intitute for hi reearch and to Rob Ewachuk who volunteered hi time to editing and photo-hunting. We would like to acknowledge thoe who provided valuable comment: Mark Lute, Deborah Doncater, Mark Winfield, Tim Wei and Kai Millyard. Finally, we would like to thank the Oak Foundation for their generou upport of thi project. Any error or omiion remain the reponibility of the author. i i i P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

6 Plugging Ontario Into A Green Future A RENEWABLE IS DOABLE ACTION PLAN Content Executive Summary Part One: Keeping Ontario Green Promie... 5 Introduction... 5 The Opportunity... 5 Averting GHG Pollution... 7 The Cae of Pickering B... 7 The Cae of Bruce B... 8 Increaing GHG Emiion... 8 Falling Short of Ontario Emiion Reduction Target Crowding Out Green Option...11 Getting More Green in the Mix Part Two: The Renewable I Doable Portfolio: Reduce. Renew. Recycle...13 Introduction...13 REDUCE...16 CDM I Cot-Effective...18 CDM I Quick to Deploy...19 Conervation I Clean...19 CDM I Market Ready...20 Making It Happen...20 RENEW...21 Wind Power...22 Solar Power...24 Wind and Solar Can Be Cot-Effective...25 Wind and Solar Are Quick to Deploy...25 Wind and Solar Are Clean...25 Wind and Solar Are Market Ready...25 Making It Happen...26 Needed: A Smart Green Grid...27 i v P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

7 RECYCLE AND RECOVER...28 Generating Free Power with Wate Heat Recycling Wate Heat Recycling I Cot-effective, Quick to Deploy, Clean and Market Ready...29 Making It Happen...30 Increaing the Smart Ue of Natural Ga through Combined Heat and Power...30 CHP I Cot-Effective...33 CHP I Quick to Deploy...33 CHP I Clean...33 CHP I Market Ready...33 Making It Happen Part Three: A Seven-Step Action Plan for Green Energy...34 APPENDIX 1: Spreadheet, Table and Graph...36 Appendix 1.A Emiion Factor...36 Appendix 1.B Scenario Data...38 APPENDIX 2: Detailed Lit of Policy Recommendation...41 Note: Footnote v P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

8 Lit of Figure Figure 1: Filling the Gap with Quick-To-Deploy Green Energy Option...3 Figure 2: Increae in GHG Pollution Due to Foil-Fuel Replacement of Pickering B Nuclear Station...7 Figure 3: Comparion of the Hitorical Nuclear Production with the IPSP Nuclear Forecat...8 Figure 4: Increae in GHG Emiion in Ontario Under the OPA Electricity Plan with Applied Hitorical Performance of Nuclear Reactor...9 Figure 5: Filling the Gap with Quick-To-Deploy Green Energy Option Figure 6: Etimated Recycled Energy Potential from Ontario Stack >50m above grade Lit of Table Table 1: Table 2: The Renewable I Doable Portfolio of Additional Green Reource Conervation and Demand Management (CDM) for 2014 and Table 3: Renewable Power Source for 2014 and Table 4: Wate Heat Recycling (CDM) for 2014 and Table 5: Combined Heat and Power (CHP) for 2014 and v i P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

9 Plugging Ontario Into A Green Future A RENEWABLE IS DOABLE ACTION PLAN Executive Summary Ontario potential for renewable energy i much greater than our energy need. The Renewable I Doable portfolio i feaible and require no ignificant upgrade to the current tranmiion ytem. On September 17, Ontario Energy Miniter George Smitherman directed the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) to reviit it 20-year electricity plan to ee how the contribution of renewable energy, conervation and ditributed generation could be enhanced. 1 Plugging Ontario Into A Green Future lay out an action plan for achieving thi goal and how how doing o will ait Ontario in meeting it climate target and create new green job. It alo identifie the major barrier to achieving thee goal: the province commitment to nuclear power. Depite the intent of the McGuinty government original upply mix directive which et a minimum target for renewable energy, the OPA electricity plan effectively cap the development of renewable energy becaue of it focu on large, centralized generation tation, particularly nuclear generator. PHOTO: NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY

10 E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y The Opportunity There i a better option: Replace endof-life nuclear reactor with quick to deploy green energy ource and conervation. PHOTO: SAULT STE. MARIE WIND FARM. COURTESY WWF-CANADA INSET PHOTO: PICKERING NUCLEAR STATION. COURTESY OF GREENPEACE The bet opportunity to get more green into Ontario electricity upply mix i to allow clean, utainable ource of power to replace ageing nuclear reactor when they reach the end of their operational live. According to the OPA, the Ontario government mut decide early in 2009 whether to rebuild or replace the Pickering B nuclear tation cheduled to come offline in A imilar deciion about the Bruce B nuclear tation mut be made within the mandate of thi government a well. 2 However, by framing thee two deciion a either rebuild or replace nuclear tation, the OPA ha failed to conider the option of expanding renewable energy beyond the minimum in the upply mix directive. Intead, the OPA ha given the government an unpalatable choice: rebuild old reactor at high cot and high rik or build new nuclear plant by Both option increae foil generation until reactor are refurbihed or built, reulting in the rik of higher greenhoue ga emiion. There i a better option: Replace thee aged nuclear reactor with quick-to-deploy green energy ource and conervation. 2 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

11 E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y The Renewable i Doable Portfolio The portfolio of green reource provide more than enough generation to replace effective baeload capacity. Renewable i Doable preent a portfolio of green energy option which can replace the generating capacity of both the Pickering B and the Bruce B tation a they retire beginning in By immediately ramping up clean energy option, Ontario can reduce reliance on natural ga generation and coal-fired import and avoid the well etablihed pattern in refurbihing old nuclear reactor: cot overrun and lengthy delay. Figure 1 below how the chedule for retiring the unit at the Pickering B and Bruce B (red and orange wedge) and preent a uite of green reource that can fill thi gap. Thee green reource are in addition to the clean option currently in the OPA plan, demontrating that Ontario can go far above and beyond what the OPA i propoing for conervation, renewable, Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and other clean, quick to deploy ource. The portfolio of green reource provide more than enough generation to replace effective baeload capacity. FIGURE 1 Filling the Gap with Quick-To-Deploy Green Energy Option P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

12 E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y A Seven-Step Action Plan for Green Energy REPLACE 1 REDUCE 2 RENEW RECYCLE 7 T he McGuinty government i eriou about expanding green energy in Ontario. To do o, however, it mut take the following even tep over the next 24 month: Make room for renewable by chooing green power over dirty energy Replace Pickering B and Bruce B nuclear reactor with green power, a thee reactor come to the end of their live over the next decade. Start firt with all cot effective conervation to reduce baeload Direct the OPA to acquire all cot effective Conervation and Demand management (CDM) reource a per the intent of the Supply Mix Directive, rather than treating the minimum target for CDM a a cap. And direct the OPA to change it approach to conervation from going after the low hanging fruit to acquiring deep energy efficiency aving a per the recommendation ubmitted to the Ontario Energy Board hearing on behalf of the Green Energy Coalition. Then increae renewable energy ource Tranform the Renewable Energy Standard Offer Program (RESOP) into an effective Advanced Renewable Tariff ytem (ART) to include: price differentiated by technologie, tiered pricing within technologie, price et according project cot and reaonable return on invetment, 20 year contract, no cap on project ize or the program, and guaranteed acce to the grid. Ue ART a the primary procurement mechanim for renewable energy, empowering all Ontarian to become generator and conerver at a fair price. Direct Hydro One to develop and implement a Smart Green Grid Upgrade Plan which give renewable energy priority in Ontario tranmiion and ditribution ytem. In parallel, enable a regulatory regime that encourage local ditribution companie to acquire the technical and financial reource to upgrade their ytem to accommodate ditributed energy from clean and renewable ource. Embed thee item in legilation via a Green Energy Act that include an obligation for grid connection for green energy. Ue conventional fuel more efficiently with more CHP and wate heat recovery Implement the Clean Energy Standard Offer Program for cogeneration and recycled energy but without capacity limit and with a feed in tariff that provide a reaonable return for invetor. P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

13 Part One 1 Keeping Ontario Green Promie The OPA current plan relegate new renewable energy to a marginal role. PHOTO: TEACHANDLEARN ON FLICKR Introduction The Opportunity Ontario Minitry of Energy and Infratructure recently made a commitment to enhance renewable energy and conervation effort in the province and directed the OPA to adopt more ambitiou target in thee area. 3 However, it i not clear at thi time how aggreive thee new target for renewable energy will be or where the pace for more green energy i going to come from within the propoed electricity plan currently before the Ontario Energy Board. Ontario exiting and projected electricity upply mix i dedicated almot fully to large, centralized power plant uch a nuclear, coal and ga plant (a well a hydro). 4 The OPA current plan relegate new renewable energy to a marginal role in meeting Ontario electricity need and leave no room for green energy, including conervation, to grow beyond the minimum level required by the government directive. The bet opportunity to develop a green energy economy in Ontario i to allow thee utainable ource of power to replace ageing nuclear reactor when they are cheduled to hut down beginning in To take advantage of thi opportunity, however, the Ontario government mut forgo the advice of it electricity-planning agency. The OPA ha given the government an unpalatable choice: rebuild old reactor at high cot and high rik or build new nuclear plant by Both option increae foil generation until reactor are refurbihed or built, reulting in the rik of higher greenhoue ga emiion. P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

14 P A R T 1 : K E E P I N G O N T A R I O S G R E E N P R O M I S E S The imminent cloure of the Pickering B and Bruce B nuclear tation provide pace for green energy economy to grow in Ontario. A deciion to rebuild or replace thee nuclear tation with additional nuclear tation pot-2020 will forecloe any ignificant expanion of green power in the province. OPA own evidence demontrate that a higher commitment to energy efficiency require a reduced commitment to nuclear generation on line in To meaningfully and fully develop a green energy economy in Ontario, the provincial government hould take advantage of the near-term cloure of Ontario nuclear tation to make pace for renewable energy to grow, creating a ready market for new green economic development. Ontario could fall hort of meeting it GHG reduction target if it continue to depend on ageing nuclear power plant in the hope that they will operate better than they have in the pat. PHOTO: CLIPART Averting GHG Pollution Thi approach would alo enure that Ontario maintain it target to reduce greenhoue ga (GHG) pollution. The province could fall hort of meeting it GHG reduction target if it continue to depend on ageing nuclear power plant operating better than they have in the pat. Should the operational problem and delayed refurbihment that have plagued nuclear reactor in the pat fifteen year perit over the next decade, the reult will be more not le GHG pollution. The problem tem from the OPA plan to replace any hortfall in nuclear generating capacity by burning more natural ga in inefficient centralized plant and importing more coal-baed power from the U.S. 6 The Province promie to phae out coal could be compromied even if the nuclear fleet i able to match it le than tellar performance of the lat 15 year when it wa plagued by operational problem, delay and cot overrun. P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

15 P A R T 1 : K E E P I N G O N T A R I O S G R E E N P R O M I S E S Thi report preent a hort-term uite of feaible green energy option to effectively replace the generating capacity of both the Pickering B and the Bruce B tation. By immediately ramping up clean energy option, Ontario can enure enough power online by 2014 to enure the phae-out of coal, reduce reliance on centralized ga generation and import, and avert the delay and cot overrun of refurbihing old reactor. The Cae of Pickering B The four reactor at the Pickering B nuclear tation are cheduled to come offline between 2013 and In 2009, the government mut decide whether or not it rik rebuilding the four Pickering reactor or cloe them permanently. In it long-term electricity plan, the OPA provide contingencie if Pickering B cannot be refurbihed: increaing foil generation or trying to run the ageing reactor longer until new replacement reactor can be built by Figure 2 illutrate how GHG emiion fall dramatically in 2014 due to the anticipated coal phae-out but rie again in the event that Pickering B i not refurbihed. Thi i becaue of a heavily foil-dependent plan created for that cenario whereby increaed natural ga generation and foil-baed import replace the capacity of Pickering B FIGURE 2 Increae in GHG Pollution Due to Foil-Fuel Replacement of Pickering B Nuclear Station Mt CO 2 e Pickering B - No Refurbihment - IPSP + Extra Import Baeline Year P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

16 P A R T 1 : K E E P I N G O N T A R I O S G R E E N P R O M I S E S The OPA aumption that Ontario ageing nuclear fleet will perform better in the future i unrealitic. The Cae of Bruce B The four reactor at Bruce B nuclear tation are cheduled to begin hutting down for life-extenion repair or permanent cloure in 2015, the year after the coal phae-out date. The OPA plan doe not include a contingency if life extenion repair i not an option and Bruce B i hut down. Yet, if thi i the cae, developing replacement generation would need to begin now. In 2006, Bruce Power claimed it could build new reactor quickly enough to replace the ageing Bruce B reactor beginning in In 2007, however, the OPA plan aume:... the earliet in-ervice date for new nuclear generation i An early deciion to cloe all the four Bruce B reactor at the end of their life provide an opportunity to immediately take the cap off of renewable energy development in the Bruce area, which i currently limited to 700 MW 11 becaue of the priority given to Bruce Power on tranmiion line. The Bruce region ha one of the greatet potential for cot-effective wind development in the province. 12 Increaing GHG Emiion The OPA optimitic aumption that Ontario nuclear fleet will perform ignificantly better in the future than it ha in the pat i hown in Figure 3 below. Thi i very optimitic given that there will be no new reactor built for at leat a decade. Therefore, the OPA i auming that the performance of exiting reactor will improve ignificantly a they age, in pite of their pat hitory. FIGURE 3 Comparion of the Hitorical Nuclear Production with the IPSP Nuclear Forecat 13 8 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

17 P A R T 1 : K E E P I N G O N T A R I O S G R E E N P R O M I S E S In repone to quetion from intervener in the Integrated Power Sytem Plan hearing currently before the Ontario Energy Board, the OPA modelled what would happen if future nuclear performance matche pat performance. The reult wa that the amount of energy generated from Ontario reactor would be roughly 30% lower than predicted between 2009 and Conequently, any nuclear generation hortfall over thi period whether it be from refurbihment delay or operational hortcoming will be replaced by increae in both ga-fired generation and coalbaed import from the U.S. The reulting GHG emiion due to applied hitorical nuclear performance are preented in Figure 4 below. FIGURE 4 Increae in GHG Emiion in Ontario Under the OPA Electricity Plan with Applied Hitorical Performance of Nuclear Reactor 14 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

18 P A R T 1 : K E E P I N G O N T A R I O S G R E E N P R O M I S E S Falling Short of Ontario GHG Emiion Reduction Target The OPA plan form the bai of the province greenhoue ga emiion forecat a preented in Ontario Go Green Climate Action Plan. If thee overly optimitic aumption are wrong, Ontario will fail to meet it GHG target. In fact, according to thi modelling, GHG emiion from the electricity ector in 2014 would increae by 26MT that one-third of Ontario entire Go Green GHG emiion reduction target of 61MT and an amount equivalent to all the GHG produced by Ontario reidential and agricultural ector in Even though Ontario ha paed a regulation to phae out coal, thi effort may be undermined by outourcing coal generation elewhere (importing coal-baed import from the U.S.) and by burning more natural ga here at home. An additional 26MT of GHG would alo negate the poitive benefit of phaing out coal, which i expected to eliminate 28MT by At wort, ignificant delay and cot overrun in rebuilding old nuclear reactor could put the coal phae-out date in jeopardy. In 2005, for example, the refurbihment of Pickering A wa finally abandoned after the cot reached four time the original etimate; 16 in 2005, the Province broke it promie to phae out coal in The ubequent promie to phae out coal in 2009 wa broken in Crowding Out Green Option The Ontario government Supply Mix Directive ha et minimum target for conervation and renewable energy. 18 The OPA plan clearly interpret the directive a maximum and place limit on both CDM and renewable energy. 19 In addition, the OPA plan and it current late of CDM program are focued on reducing peak demand in the ummer rather than addreing the potential to reducing baeload requirement. Reducing baeload ha ignificant additional cutomer and environmental benefit through lower overall energy conumption, but it alo reduce peak demand. The OPA alo interpreted the directive maximum of 14,000 MW of nuclear capacity a a target reulting in a plan for Ontario grid tranmiion and ditribution deigned around thee minimal role for CDM, renewable power, and combined heat and power, and a maximum role for nuclear power. Analyi of grid development in other countrie confirm any power ytem baed on nuclear power i o highly centralized that it effectively preclude ditributed energy ource from ever becoming major power ource P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

19 P A R T 1 : K E E P I N G O N T A R I O S G R E E N P R O M I S E S The OPA impoe a nuclear ceiling over green energy and conervation indutrie in Ontario. Thu, the OPA plan effectively impoe a nuclear ceiling over the renewable energy indutry in Ontario, ending a meage to the market that opportunitie for renewable and conervation indutrie in Ontario are limited. Already, renewable energy developer have left Ontario to invet elewhere. 21 CHP project in Ontario have been abandoned and ignificant invetment ha been lot due to the delay and continuing uncertainty urrounding the Clean Energy Standard Offer Program (CESOP) that the Miniter of Energy aked the OPA to develop in Augut of The Miniter of Energy and Infratructure mot recent directive ak the OPA to increae the amount and diverity of renewable energy ource in the upply mix. The only way to do thi i to make room for ignificant expanion of renewable energy via the permanent retirement of thee old reactor and allowing them to be replaced with green energy. The amendment alo ak the OPA to conider the viability of accelerating the achievement of tated conervation target, but not increaing conervation and energy efficiency to it maximum potential. The province mut chooe between green energy and nuclear. Getting More Green in the Mix The Independent Electricity Sytem Operator ha already noted that the OPA current plan already ha a problem of too much baeload production at time of low demand. 22 Thi create a further diincentive for comprehenive conervation becaue the exiting plan may already require nuclear plant to be turned off at variou point during the year, which i difficult and riky to do quickly. The only way to lift the cap on conervation i to make room for it expanion a a baeload energy ource by reducing baeload, i.e. nuclear ource elewhere. So ultimately, the province mut chooe between green energy (conervation/ renewable/ CHP) and nuclear. Given the cot overrun, performance problem, refurbihment delay and conequent GHG emiion increae, and life extenion rik aociated with nuclear power, the greener choice i the better choice. Thi report preent a portfolio of clean, reliable quick-to-deploy energy option that the province of Ontario hould aim to have in place by 2014 in time for both the retirement of thee nuclear reactor and the phae-out of coal and up to 2019 effectively filling the gap period between the retirement of old reactor and the propoed building of new reactor. 1 1 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

20 P A R T 1 : K E E P I N G O N T A R I O S G R E E N P R O M I S E S Thi Renewable I Doable portfolio how how green energy ource can addre Ontario electricity need and obligation to fight climate change where nuclear energy cannot. Ontario can enure enough green power online by 2014 to guarantee the phae-out of coal, reduce GHG emiion, and avert the delay and cot overrun of refurbihing old reactor. It a mart, enible olution. And it doable. We do not want to find ourelve in a ituation where the province cannot meet it climate commitment or ha to break it promie to phae out coal for a third time. 23 Clearly, Ontario need a better hort-term energy trategy to enure the following: z Provide the bae for long term development of renewable power ource z Decreae dependence on natural ga and coal-baed import; z Enure that Ontario meet it climate commitment. z Guarantee the phae-out of coal; and, z Guard againt uncertaintie; Chooing to get more green into the energy upply mix will foter eriou invetment in, and development of, the renewable energy and energy efficiency indutry and help diverify Ontario energy mix. By immediately ramping up clean energy option, Ontario can enure enough power online by 2014 to guarantee the phae-out of coal, reduce reliance on inefficient centralized ga generation and import, and avert the delay and cot overrun of refurbihing old reactor. It a mart, enible olution. And it i doable. 1 2 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

21 Part Two 2 Introduction 1.1 Introduction The Renewable I Doable Portfolio: Reduce. Renew. Recycle. The following cenario how that it i poible to replace ageing baeload nuclear facilitie with a diverified mix of low-carbon and afe energy option. The benefit of uch a portfolio are broad: developing a green energy indutry, developing green job in communitie acro the province and diverifying upply. Figure 5 illutrate the gap in power production created a Pickering B and Bruce B (in red and orange) come offline beginning in 2013 and preent how clean option fill thi gap. The graph how that the portfolio provide more than enough generation capacity to replace effective baeload capacity. FIGURE Filling the Gap with Quick-To-Deploy Green Energy Option 24 1 P L U G G I N G O N TA R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

22 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O The McGuinty government ha et relatively ambitiou conervation and green energy capacity target until 2010 but the OPA electricity plan reign in the development of conervation and renewable after 2010 to leave pace for nuclear project with long lead time. Renewable I Doable, however, build on the government achievement and ramp up clean energy option. Thi portfolio of clean option i in addition to the clean option currently in the OPA plan, demontrating that Ontario can go far above and beyond what the OPA i propoing for conervation, renewable, combined heat and power and other clean, quick to deploy ource. In fact, Renewable I Doable provide an extra mall cuhion of green power to provide option to avoid ome of the expenive natural ga generation in OPA plan. 25 A number of recent expert tudie ugget far greater economic potential for energy efficiency, combined heat and power and renewable energy can be realized, allowing even more of the Province future power demand to be met from thee ource. 26 In fact, the Renewable I Doable portfolio may be conidered moderate in comparion to what i actually poible. TABLE 1 The Renewable I Doable Portfolio of Additional Green Reource** For example, the Alliance for Clean Technology (ACT) identified a potential for 11,400MW of CHP in Ontario. 27 The Renewable I Doable portfolio, while propoing to increae over that planned by the OPA, call for a total 2831MW of intalled CHP le than 25% of the identified potential. Table 1 ummarize the total amount of additional clean option that can be online by 2014 and 2019 according to Renewable I Doable. Supply Source Online By 2014 By 2019 Reducing Conumption and Demand with Conervation and Energy Efficiency TWh Peak MW TWh Peak MW Recycled Energy and Wate Heat Recovery Indutrial and Plant CHP 5.5* * 828 Building Scale CHP Wind Onhore Wind Offhore Wind with Storage Solar TOTAL * Indutrial and Plant CHP include TWh gained from building additional CHP plant and from increaing the capacity factor of CHP plant (exiting, contracted and planned) from 41% to 67%. ** The complete Renewable i Doable data and preadheet can be found at P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

23 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O Renewable I Doable involve tapping into efficiency, fuel witching and conervation reource already identified a cot-effective by the OPA. It alo involve uing natural ga more efficiently in combined heat and power plant, rather than in large peaking plant and taking advantage of high temperature recycled heat from indutry to produce power that require no extra fuel cot or GHG emiion. COST-EFFECTIVE QUICK TO DEPLOY CLEAN MARKET READY The Renewable I Doable portfolio meet the following criteria: Economic modelling done for the Ontario Energy Board hearing on the IPSP found that a green portfolio would be up to 24% le expenive than the nuclear-dominated IPSP. 28 More than 20 TWh/yr of additional demand reduction and upply can be online by 2014 to fill the gap, ramping up to at leat 41 TWh by The portfolio reduce GHG emiion and other pollution, a well a environmental and health cot aociated with fuel acquiition from traditional ource. Developer and other takeholder are intereted and ready to produce and market upply. 1 5 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

24 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O Start firt with all cot effective conervation to reduce baeload REDUCE Even before inveting in new green energy upplie, it i eential that energy i ued wiely and efficiently. Energy efficiency, conervation, fuel witching and demand repone not only reduce peak demand but can alo permanently reduce baeload demand, eentially generating new upply. Energy efficiency mean uing more efficient product like Energy Star refrigerator and fluorecent lamp o that it take le energy to do the ame job. Conervation mean being more careful with energy e.g., making ure light are off when not needed or making ure energy-uing equipment i well maintained. Fuel witching i uing an alternative fuel uch a natural ga or olar energy to meet our heating need intead of electricity. Utilitie and government can ue a combination of incentive, regulation and other meaure to help cutomer make the right choice. Demand repone i the ue of pricing, incentive and other meaure to encourage cutomer to witch power-uing activitie to off peak time. Smart meter are ued to provide the neceary information to cutomer, or cutomer agree to have the power load limited at peak time. Conervation and Demand Management Efficiency/Conervation TWh/yr Peak MW TWh/yr Peak MW Renewable I Doable Portfolio OPA Additional Fuel Switching TWh/yr Peak MW TWh/yr Peak MW Renewable I Doable Portfolio OPA Additional Demand Repone TWh/yr Peak MW TWh/yr Peak MW Renewable I Doable Portfolio OPA Additional TOTAL TABLE 2 Conervation and Demand Management (CDM) for 2014 and P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

25 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O RT F O L I O Renewable I Doable propoe to mobilize 75% more energy efficiency, conervation, fuel witching and demand repone by 2019 than the OPA current plan. Thi i well within the cot-effective range etimated by conultant. PHOTO: ALEXIS BIRKILL ON FLICKR Firt, OPA own tudie how the achievable and cot-effective potential for 10,000 MW of aving in 2020 via CDM (including on ite generation 29 ), yet only 6300MW (by 2027) ha been accounted for in the IPSP a that wa the minimum required to meet the government directive. 30 No technical or market reaon are given for limiting CDM to 6300 MW, and there i trong evidence upporting 31 the achievability of thi full potential, o Renewable I Doable tart with utilizing that full potential. In addition, the OPA Robutne Study, Cae 3A and 3B, how that by adding 50% of additional conervation reource up to MW of new upply could be eliminated. The option clearly exit to maximize attainable demand management reource that are cheaper than all other upply option. Finally, eparate analye of energy efficiency and fuel witching potential by ICF (2006) 33, Marbek (2006) 34, MKJA (2006) and The Pembina Intitute (2004) 37 how that with the right policie and an objective to achieve a much cot-effective CDM a poible, even higher potential aving could be achieved. The aving can alo be achieved much fater than the OPA i propoing and would addre both baeload and peak demand reduction. Renewable I Doable propoal to achieve 17.9 TWh/yr of additional CDM by 2019 through energy efficiency, fuel witching and demand repone ha received additional confirmation from a new report from the Vermont Energy Invetment Corporation (VEIC) that thi i 38 definitely doable. VEIC ha analyzed the broader market and ector growth potential for CDM in Ontario and conclude that we can go much further than the OPA 6300 MW cap. The VEIC report tudie CDM potential and ucce in other juridiction and conclude that Ontario i in an excellent poition to achieve comparable (if not better) reult. 39 Ontario ha an etablihed conervation bureau, a RESOP program and a favourable market and invetment climate. Their tudy conclude that with a relatively unaggreive approach, Ontario can achieve an additional 22 TWh of CDM (including mall-cale on-ite generation) aving by 2019 over what i currently planned by the OPA. Thi i approximately twice the CDM than the OPA ha planned and 23% more than the OPA identified a potential. 1 P L U G G I N G O N TA R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

26 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O CDM I Cot-Effective CDM I Quick to Deploy By including the Renewable I Doable recommended additional onite generation of 0.9 TWh from micro-turbine by 2019 (ee Section 3.2.3) to the propoed additional 17.9 TWh for efficiency, fuel witching and demand repone, Renewable I Doable comparable CDM portfolio provide 18.8 TWh of additional demand ide aving very cloe to the VEIC medium etimate on the conervative ide. The OPA plan etimate that pending $7 billion on conervation program over the next 20 year will eliminate a cot of $15.9 billion to build and run generator and tranmiion capacity that otherwie would have been ued a aving of $2.27 for every dollar pent on conervation. 40 Conervation aving are achieved at an average cot of le than 3 cent/kwh. 41 Increaing the contribution of conervation program up to their cot-effective limit would therefore not only reduce demand but alo ave Ontarian billion of dollar. The cot-effectivene of demand-ide reource improve with any increae in upply-ide cot uch a nuclear and natural ga. Recent evidence point to much higher contruction and fuel 42 cot for nuclear power leading to cot for new nuclear of 14.2 cent/kwh, compared to 11.7 cent/kwh for combined cycle ga turbine and 10.1 and 10.5 cent/kwh for onhore and offhore wind (repectively). 43 The potential for cot aving via efficiency, fuel witching and demand management are therefore even greater by comparion. Many juridiction et their target to achieve all cot-effective demand ide reource through market tranformation taking tep to make ure that all inefficient equipment and practice are replaced. 44 To achieve thi market tranformation, the Government of Ontario hould direct the OPA to achieve greater aving. In Vermont, imilar action led to enough electricity aving ufficient to turn load growth negative. 45 Moreover, energy efficiency and conervation will ignificantly improve the province economic competitivene a well a create many job acro the province. In 2006, the United State energy efficiency indutry had nearly $1 trillion in revenue and provided 3.5 million direct job and another 8 million indirect job. 46 A recent tudy by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) report that by adopting energy efficient trategie, Florida will ave $28 billion, offet the tate entire future growth in electric demand by 2023 and create more than 14,000 job in Energy efficiency improvement do not require the building of new electricity generation ource, tranmiion line and natural ga facilitie. They can be deployed in all part of the province by a wide variety of profeion and trade, creating employment in all region (ee below). 1 8 P L U G G I N G O N TA R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

27 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O Conervation I Clean CDM I Market Ready Making It Happen The only limit to the deployment of efficiency and fuel-witching meaure i the tock turnover rate (how often omething need to be changed). The life of mot equipment i le than 20 year and, on average, home and commercial building are renovated every 10 year. Even after that, new technologie, procee and code and tandard will continue to deliver additional energy aving not conceived of today. California ha been implementing conervation program ince 1975 and continue to till lead the way. 48 Energy efficiency improvement are the lowet cot option to reduce greenhoue gae (GHG) and meet the province climate protection goal. The OPA laid out it plan for CDM (Conervation Demand Management) in IPSP Dicuion Paper No. 3 in The tated objective wa to acquire the maximum cot-effective CDM reource through program that focued on market tranformation, building CDM capacity and direct reource acquiition. However, a noted above, the OPA i only puruing 65% of the CDM potential it ha identified a cot-effective and market ready. A noted above, many other juridiction in North America and Europe have et ignificant tretch target for energy efficiency and are implementing market tranformation program that demontrate international confidence in an energy efficiency market that i both large and ready to be tapped. California ha and i till leading the way. 49 Energy efficiency, conervation and demand management are the mot cot-effective energy upply option. However, a number of factor impede the OPA from reducing energy demand and generating maximum new upply via conervation and efficiency. The Supply Mix Directive to the OPA et quite modet target for CDM and encouraged OPA to focu on reducing peak demand. The current OPA target for CDM i therefore interpreted by the OPA a a ceiling and preclude the full potential for long-term energy efficiency and conervation program that reult in ignificant permanent reduction in baeload demand. Moreover, the focu on peak reduction decreae the opportunity to reduce greenhoue ga emiion, which are produced by hour of ue, not peak ue; put another way, they decreae the required peak capacity, but not the overall power produced. Focuing on one dimenion of energy benefit peak reduction mie opportunitie to tranform market and build capacity P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

28 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O The Supply Mix Directive for CDM need to be interpreted a a minimum target, rather than a a cap to maximize the acquiition of all cot-effective CDM reource. Thee minimum target need to be increaed to the achievable and effective long-range potential identified by current tudie. The Government of Ontario mut play a major role in enuring that all cot-effective energy efficiency, fuel witching and demand repone opportunitie are taken. It mut develop a comprehenive action plan to tranform all energy end ue market in Ontario and build the capacity to deliver thi plan through the OPA and a wide variety of other channel. While the OPA decribe the importance of building capability to deliver efficiency and having long-term market tranformation plan in place to enure all cot-effective efficiency i realized, thi i not reflected either in it Plan or the current CDM portfolio. In particular, the OPA plan ramp up CDM quite aggreively to 2010 and then how a teady decline, thereby prohibiting the opportunity for real and effective market tranformation to take place. 51 The Renewable I Doable portfolio and the VEIC tudy referenced above propoe a utained level of CDM development and acquiition, which reult in greater, not fewer, aving after Therefore, market tranformation program are neceary, along with the hiring of neceary taff and expertie from other juridiction to implement thee program. Another factor limiting the ue of efficiency reource i the lack of coordination of conervation effort in the province among the variou energy form and player in the market place: government of all level, agencie, utilitie, training organization and trade aociation. By choice, the OPA and the Chief Energy Conervation Officer focu on electricity CDM although end-ue employing other fuel or water ytem all conume electricity a well. A complete lit of recommendation for CDM development in Ontario i preented in Appendix P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

29 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O RENEW Increae renewable energy reource Wind Power The Renewable I Doable portfolio propoe accelerating the deployment of wind power o that a total of 8000 MW are in place by Thi i within the bound of the Ontario Wind Integration tudy cited by the OPA, which tate: The reult of the regulation analyi how that the incremental regulation required to maintain the current performance i mall... [W]e believe that the impact on regulation of 10,000 MW of wind generation by the year 2020 i modet and can be accommodated with little or no change to exiting operating practice. (OPA Exhibit D-5-1, Attachment 2, p. 74) Renewable Energy Onhore Wind Intalled MW TWh Intalled MW TWh Renewable I Doable Portfolio OPA Additional Offhore Wind Intalled MW TWh Intalled MW TWh Renewable I Doable Portfolio OPA Additional Wind with Storage Intalled MW TWh Intalled MW TWh Renewable I Doable Portfolio OPA Additional Solar PV Intalled MW TWh Intalled MW TWh Renewable I Doable Portfolio OPA Additional TABLE 3 Renewable Power Source for 2014 and P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

30 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O Thi wind farm near Sault Ste. Marie wa built ontime and on-budget, and now produce enough power for 40,000 home. PHOTO: WWF-CANADA The portfolio propoe that the intalled total of all wind reource grow by a rate of 500 to 750MW per year from 2011 onward. Thi i in line with the OPA current intallation rate for wind 52 but continue well beyond OPA planned ceiling of 5000 MW. To provide a diverity of wind reource that ha the flexibility to meet varying demand, we propoe the following mix by 2019: z Onhore Wind Farm: A total of 5750MW of regular onhore wind i acquired at current annual acquiition rate. z Offhore Wind Farm: A total of 750MW of offhore wind i acquired, in-line with current propoal. z Wind Farm with Storage: An additional 1500MW of onhore wind are intalled with torage to all the energy to be dipatched a needed. Thi amount of wind reource i feaible and prudent and can be achieved by building on the current Ontario market and emulating uccee in other countrie. A of 2007, both Germany and Denmark generate cloe to 15% of their annual electricity from wind. On a particularly windy day in March 2008, Spain reached a point where 40% of it power wa coming from the wind P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

31 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O OPA own aement of onhore wind potential within cloe proximity to exiting tranmiion corridor i 22,000 MW. 54 Recent tudie of offhore wind in the Great Lake indicate that there i another 35,000 MW of potential at capacity factor 50% better than onhore ite. 55 There i alo coniderable interet in Great Lake wind in the U.S. State outh of the lake, 56 and there are already plan for an offhore wind farm off of Prince Edward County. 57 Currently Ontario ha 1650 MW of wind generation in place or under contract with an additional 5000 MW of capacity in the Hydro One queue for a connection impact aement. 58 However, OPA Plan only include the purchae an additional 3000 MW of new wind over the next 20 year at a relative low rate with very few addition beyond It very modet plan i baed on it aumption that no more than thi level i needed to meet the government Renewable Energy Directive, and any more i not cot-effective compared to it comparion of the long run levelized unit cot of wind with it overly optimitic aumption of the cot of new natural ga and nuclear energy. 59 Adding 2 MW of torage with five to eight hour of capacity to every 10 MW of wind can turn a wind farm variable output into firm delivered power. Storage technologie will add up to 40% 60 of the cot of wind, but torage can be intalled in mall increment providing flexibility and manageable cah flow. Storage ha three benefit: 1. Overcoming the problem of predicting the temporal behaviour of wind farm allowing day-ahead contract; Improving quality of power fed into the grid; and 3. Sizing grid connection to average rather than peak output. Other innovation that are making integration eaier include the following: z New wind power generator that are more grid friendly and produce higher quality power; z Improved weather forecating and prediction of power output from renewable power ource; and z Regulatory reform baed on the ue of new mart grid control technologie. 2 3 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

32 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O Solar Power Renewable I Doable propoe a a minimum adding 150 MW of olar power per year, both roof mounted and green field project, or an intalled capacity of 1650 MW in CANSIA ha preented evidence in the OEB Hearing on the Integrated Power Sytem Plan that 3,754 MW to 5,343 MW of olar capacity could be reached in Ontario by Solar power i poied to be the future for electricity. 66 In 2006, global invetment in olar PV wa $20 billion with Germany and the U.S. leading the way. Analyt predict that cot reduction will reult from ma production and innovation and make olar PV cot competitive with grid electricity in many part of the world by The OPA Plan propoe to acquire only 88 MW of large cale olar PV and another 100 MW of on-ite (roof top) generation by 2027 far le than the 1000 MW Germany intalled in one year (2006) and le than the 700 MW of olar PV contract already igned in Ontario under RESOP. 68 Rapid deployment of Solar PV will play a major role in meeting Ontario increaing ummer peak. Private olar collection ite in Toronto. The Renewable i Doable plan keep olar intallation rate in line with thoe achieved through the RESOP program. PHOTO: HOLLY PAGNA ON FLICKR 2 4 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

33 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O Wind and Solar Can Be Cot-Effective Wind and Solar Are Quick to Deploy Wind and Solar Are Clean Wind and Solar Are Market Ready If more realitic etimate of the cot of natural ga and nuclear power are taken in to account, much more that the 5000 MW of onhore wind capacity propoed by OPA would be cot-effective particularly in the future. And while the cot of offhore wind and wind with torage will be higher than conventional wind, higher capacity and peak effectivene factor will more than compenate. Solar PV technology cot are expected to how a rapid decline in cot by It can play a major role in meeting Ontario peak demand if a trong indutry i built in Ontario, and policie are put in place to build the ditribution infratructure to accommodate ignificant olar capacity. Wind and olar power ytem can be deployed in ize from a few kw to hundred of MW. In all cae, intallation can be achieved in month. Wind and olar power ytem produce no emiion during operation and have low life-cycle impact. Siting iue mut be dealt with effectively and fairly, but there are many ite where large wind and olar capacity are acceptable, particularly in maller or offhore application. Onhore wind technology i market ready and already into it econd or third generation of blade, mechanical ytem and grid friendly power generation technologie. Offhore wind ha been demontrated in everal key area and will be fully market ready very oon. Power torage i now being commercialized and promie to be fully market ready in a few year. Solar PV technology and grid interconnection ytem are well developed and market ready. Major cot reduction will come through market expanion and economie of cale. Community olar rooftop intallation uch a WISE in Toronto provide a mallercale community baed approach to increaing the intalled olar bae. PHOTO: WWF-CANADA 2 5 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

34 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O Making It Happen Germany intalled 5 time more olar in 2006 than Ontario plan to intall over the next 20 year. PHOTO: MISSISSAUGA WATER TREATMENT PLANT, COURTESY REGION OF PEEL It ha been hown that Ontario potential for renewable energy i much greater than our energy need and certainly exceed the 10-year portfolio propoed in Renewable I Doable. The Renewable I Doable portfolio i more than feaible and require no ignificant upgrade to the current tranmiion ytem; however, it doe require ome policy modification to improve acce to the grid for ditributed renewable energy. To realize the full potential of renewable energy, Ontario Renewable Energy Standard Offer Program (RESOP) need to be reformed to allow for maximum uptake. The RESOP hould become the primary acquiition vehicle for all renewable power in Ontario. Thi involve removing all cap and retriction from RESOP and implementing advanced renewable tariff (ART) a pricing ytem that differentiate technology, cale, location and type of generation 69 in particular removing bottleneck and improving acce to the grid. Lack of acce to the grid for renewable energy developer need to be addreed in order for the province to meet it own renewable target and to go beyond thee target and achieve what i actually doable. Germany EEC (Green Energy Act) provide a model for legilation that mandate priority acce to the grid for renewable and ditributed energy, with an obligation to connect and interconnect cot put in the rate bae. 70 Moreover, the retirement of Bruce B preent and opportunity for the Ontario government to develop and commit to a green energy plan for replacing the ageing Bruce B nuclear tation, which tart going offline in 2015, by unlocking priority acce to nuclear tation to the tranmiion corridor. The Bruce region ha the bet potential for wind development in outhern Ontario; however wind development i everely limited in the region ince tranmiion in the region i already at capacity. 71 Studie how that there i tremendou potential for wind development in the Bruce region (1421MW 72 ), and thi potential could be realized without the need for new tranmiion line. The cloure of Bruce B would make pace for over 3000MW of tranmiion available for renewable energy. Renewable I Doable offer a uite of green energy option that 2 6 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

35 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O Needed: A Smart Green Grid require only minimum modification to the grid in the hort term. However, a longer-term trategy for both green energy and a green economy require a roadmap for a mart green grid that can accommodate greater level of renewable energy ditributed throughout the province. Recent report by the California Independent Sytem Operator and California Energy Commiion provide excellent model of a Green Grid Road map. 73 A Green Grid ha the following feature all of which are already being ued in other juridiction: z better coordination of variable power ource with flexible power ource uch a combined heat and power and hydro; z increae in the operational flexibility of the generation portfolio quick tart, fat ramp up and down, turn down, and load following; z improved forecating of power output from renewable power ource; z new grid operating trategie and mart grid control ytem; z management of demand to better match upply variation through demand repone technique; z geographic diverity of renewable power ytem; z ue of grid friendly renewable power ource that provide high quality power frequency, power factor, etc.; z extenive ue of energy torage at renewable power generation ite, within the grid, or at a cutomer ite; and z a conducive policy and regulatory framework. 2 7 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

36 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O Ue conventional fuel more efficiently with more CHP and wate heat recovery RECYCLE AND RECOVER Significant opportunity exit to capture wate heat from indutrial procee. PHOTO: STEFAN GARA ON FLICKR Generating Free Power with Wate Heat Recycling Wate Heat Recycling Currently Ontario i not taking advantage of the high temperature wate heat that i produced at Ontario indutrial facilitie; it imply goe up the tack. There i tremendou potential to capture preure and recycle hot exhaut into clean local power and burn no incremental foil fuel or emit any incremental CO2. Indutry expert etimate the total potential power from wated energy tream at approximately 3,000 MW, if indutrie with tack le than 50 metre tall are included. 75 Not all indutry with wate heat available would be intereted in providing power; the Renewable I Doable portfolio aume that a conervative 500 MW one ixth of the total identified potential would be available by Wate Heat Recycling Intalled MW TWh/yr Intalled MW TWh/yr Renewable I Doable Portfolio OPA TABLE 4 Wate Heat Recycling (CDM) for 2014 and P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

37 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O There i 500 MW potential in uing expanion turbine on Ontario ga ditribution ytem. 77 Additional high temperature wate heat ource are available at indutrial ite with horter exhaut tack but no etimate of the potential electricity i available. See Figure 6 below: FIGURE Etimated Recycled Energy Potential from Ontario Stack >0m above grade 8 However, there are many other potential high temperature wate heat ource at indutrial ite that have horter exhaut tack. Wate Heat Recycling I Cot-effective, Quick to Deploy, Clean and Market Ready Since we cannot aume that all indutry with wate heat available would be intereted in providing power, the Renewable I Doable portfolio aume that a conervative 500 MW one ixth of the total identified potential would be available by The OPA doe not acknowledge Ontario wate energy recycling potential in it plan. In term of cot-effectivene, the fuel i already being burned o there are no incremental fuel cot or emiion. The incremental cot of the turbine generator and grid connection are etimated to be about $1500/kW. At a capacity factor of 67% thi tranlate into about 3 cent/kwh, le than any other upply reource. Enbridge Ga etimate that it would take year to deploy all of the expanion turbine power plant. Renewable I Doable conervatively aume only half will be deployed; it i alo conervative to give more than half the etimated time for total deployment, allowing 50% of the total to be deployed by Recycling hot exhaut into local clean power or capturing wated preure require no additional fuel and create no extra GHG or other pollutant. It alo require no pecial new equipment. 2 P L U G G I N G O N TA R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

38 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O Making It Happen Increaing the Smart Ue of Natural Ga through Combined Heat and Power More Fuel Efficient One of the mot effective way to ave energy, create energy and not produce GHG pollution i to harne the thouand of megawatt of energy going up in moke. The 10MW limit hould be removed from the CESOP procurement policy, and the offer would have to be kept open long enough for developer to complete the 12-to-30-month proce of developing complicated energy recycling project. Requiring documentation of all indutrial tack of all ize would help to identify the greater potential for recycled energy. Combined Heat and Power Renewable I Doable propoe maintaining and renewing all CHP Non Utility Generator (NUG) contract. 80 Thee unit hould be upgraded to match the level of new CHP plant. Renewable I Doable aume thee upgraded plant come on-line one year after each NUG contract expire to replace the generation. It alo aume that the 1000 MW of new committed and planned CHP go ahead a per the IPSP but at a better capacity factor. A conervative 67% capacity i aumed for both new and upgraded plant. It i alo doable to increae the amount of elf-generation through micro-turbine facilitie to 50 MW intalled per year for a total of 550 MW by 2019 almot twice the OPA Plan for elf-generation. The OPA include a mall amount of mall cale CHP facility generation in it CDM portfolio. Recent tudie etimate the total CHP potential in Ontario at 11,400 MW of which 4,000MW could be from plant with le than 100 MW of capacity (i.e., Facility/Building Scale). 81 Thi i 19 time the OPA aumed capacity from local clean energy capacity. Denmark embarked on a program to promote local generation and now produce 54% of it power by recycling otherwie wated energy. A comparable 54% of Ontario generation would be 16,200 MW. Natural ga i ued in Ontario to produce power in everal way: 1. Single cycle ga turbine (SCGT) generator are ued motly for meeting peak demand. Thee unit operate at le than 30% efficiency, and the ret of the energy (70%) i wated a heat. 2. In combined cycle ga turbine (CCGT) generator, ome of the wate from a ga turbine generator i ued to generate more power uing a econd team-driven turbine. The combined efficiency from the two turbine i up to 50% with the remaining 50% wated a heat. 3 0 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

39 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O R T F O L I O 3. In indutrial combined heat and power (CHP) plant alo known a cogeneration the wate heat from a ingle or combined cycle generation plant i ued to make proce team and hot water for ue in indutrial proce, with the power being old to the grid. Thi heating credit can reduce the cot of delivering power to the grid. 4. Small cale CHP plant are located at a cutomer ite and normally ue micro-turbine or engine. They upply power into the local ditribution ytem rather than the tranmiion grid. Small cale CHP plant are now being ued in building to upply the building heating need and ell power to grid (or ue it on ite). On average, large central generating plant (coal, ga or nuclear, etc.) wate over 65% of the input energy through vented heat and tranmiion loe. Local CHP generation that recycle otherwie wated thermal energy, achieve 200 to 250% higher energy efficiency than the average large plant. TABLE 5 Combined Heat and Power (CHP) for 2014 and 2019 Currently Ontario ha 1280 MW of indutrial CHP, but there are plan to phae out much of thi CHP capacity after 2015 a contract with power generator expire. The OPA plan include only 1000 MW of new indutrial CHP over the next 20 year. In addition, OPA aume that the capacity factor of CHP plant are only 41-58% far lower than the actual indutry average. Thi ha kewed the economic analyi in the plan and erve to make the cot per MWh from CHP much higher than it i. 82 CHP Exiting, Committed and Planned CHP Intalled MW TWh Intalled MW TWh Renewable I Doable Portfolio* 2, , OPA 2, , Additional New CHP** Intalled MW TWh Intalled MW TWh Renewable I Doable Portfolio OPA Additional Facility CHP Intalled MW TWh Intalled MW TWh Renewable I Doable Portfolio OPA*** Additional * Renewable i Doable number reflect the upgrade in capacity factor from 41% to 67% a evidenced by the increae in TWh for thi category. ** Renewing all CHP NUG contract or replacing thee plant with new-build CHP. All renewed unit hould be upgraded to match emiion level of new CHP plant. *** Thee reource are thoe propoed by OPA for all on-ite elf generation the majority of which are from micro-turbine cogeneration. 3 1 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

40 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O RT F O L I O Increaed Reliability Increaed Operability and Reducing Line Loe Local CHP generation achieve up to 250% higher efficiency than large central generating plant which wate over 65% of the input energy. In contrat, the OPA current plan include 7853 MW of new, but much lower efficiency, combined cycle power over the next 20 year including it contingency hould Pickering B not be refurbihed. Currently, Ontario ha 3280 MW of conventional ingle and combined cycle ga, which include the 2100 MW Lennox dual oil/ga fuel SCGT plant. A ytem of large generator alo mean that a lot of exce energy i needed on hand in cae a large generator fail. A recent tudy found that Ontario ytem of large generator require 18% to 21% of redundant generation and tranmiion capacity to be reliable. By comparion, a ytem of mall local generator can provide the ame reliability with only 3% to 5% exce: 83 When a 1000MW power plant fail there mut be a pare 1000 megawatt of idle generation to fill the gap (with 30 uch generator chance are two to three will be down at one time) By contrat, a ytem of many mall generator all cloe to load i ignificantly more robut. 84 Since CHP generate power locally and energy i conumed cloe to the load, no energy i lot in the long ditance tranmiion ytem. Ditributed generation can increae overall grid operability and provide benefit to the electricity ytem by reducing line loe and reducing load on tranmiion facilitie. The IESO ha tated: With the appropriate procedural and technological change, embedded generation ha the potential to enhance operability during period of urplu baeload generation a well during 85 normal condition. By contrat, the OPA ha committed to purchae 7853 MW of new lower efficiency combined cycle power over the next 20 year MW of thi capacity i to compenate for not refurbihing the Pickering B nuclear tation. Currently, Ontario already ha 3280 MW of conventional ingle and combined cycle ga, which include the 2100 MW Lennox dual oil/ga fuel SCGT plant. It i very wateful to ue o much natural ga in generating facilitie. If the IPSP i followed and exiting CHP contract are not renewed, only 1000 MW out of 12,000 MW total ga generating capacity will have heat recovery by Ontario will ue 25% of it total ga conumption for power generation yet wate more than half of it billion of dollar up the tack. 2 P L U G G I N G O N TA R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

41 P A R T 2 : T H E R E N E W A B L E I S D O A B L E P O RT F O L I O CHP I Cot-Effective CHP I Quick to Deploy CHP I Clean CHP I Market Ready Making It Happen Becaue of the credit from the ue of heat and the aving in tranmiion loe from being cloer to load centre, CHP plant both indutrial and building facilitie can deliver power at 50-60% the cot of a combined cycle ga plant and le than half the cot of a new nuclear plant. 86 CHP plant are maller and more quickly deployed than large-cale combined cycle plant. Mot plant would be on exiting ite and do not require lengthy approval procee. On an emiion per kwh bai, CHP i almot twice a clean a combine cycle plant. Local generation, by reducing the total amount of foil fuel per delivered kilowatt-hour, reult in ubtantially lower air pollution, GHG emiion and overall demand for foil 87 fuel. Indutrial CHP ytem are off the helf and have been in ue in many countrie for over 20 year. Technical tudie have hown that the potential for CHP in Ontario i between 10,000 and 16,000 MW o our propoal i very conervative. Small cale micro-turbine for building are jut entering the market now. The IPSP call for utilizing only 5.1% of the CHP and recycled energy potential that ha been identified. Mot identified potential could be achieved through a modified CESOP program. The 10 MW capacity limit per project would need to be removed and an appropriate tariff provided for facility micro-turbine a the market develop and cot come down that provide a good return for invetor. Thi cogeneration plant near Kington ue wate energy recycling proce to produce both electricity and indutrial team for adjacent indutry. PHOTO: WWF-CANADA P L U G G I N G O N TA R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E

42 Part Three 3 A Seven-Step Action Plan for Green Energy PHOTO: NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY T he McGuinty government i eriou about expanding green energy in Ontario. To do o, however, it mut take the following even tep over the next 24 month: REPLACE 1 Make room for renewable by chooing green power over dirty energy Replace Pickering B and Bruce B nuclear reactor with green power, a thee reactor come to the end of their live over the next decade. REDUCE 2 Start firt with all cot effective conervation to reduce baeload Direct the OPA to acquire all cot effective Conervation and Demand management (CDM) reource a per the intent of the Supply Mix Directive, rather than treating the minimum target for CDM a a cap. And direct the OPA to change it approach to conervation from going after the low hanging fruit to acquiring deep energy efficiency aving a per the recommendation ubmitted to the Ontario Energy Board hearing on behalf of the Green Energy Coalition. 3 4 P L U G G I N G O N T A R I O I N T O A G R E E N F U T U R E