National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Chattahooche-Flint River Basin.

Transcription

1 National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Chattahooche-Flint River Basin 25 September 2012

2 Outline Welcome Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought status and how we got here David Zierden, FSU, Florida Climate Center Streamflows and groundwater Tony Gotvald, USGS Summary of lake conditions Bailey Crane Seasonal outlooks David Zierden Streamflow forecasts Todd Hamill, SE River Forecast Center New Agricultural Drought Products Jon Case Summary and Discussion

3 Current drought status from Drought Monitor

4 7 Day Precipitation Totals

5 Cumulative Rainfall Deficits Past 30 days Since Oct. 1

6 Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Previous Brief: Current:

7 Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous brief: Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current:

8 Lake Lanier Inflows Chestatee near Dahlonega ( ) Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( )

9 Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

10 Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

11 Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

12 Summary of lake conditions in the ACF

13 5-Day Precipitation Forecast

14 7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

15 Near Surface Winds

16 Multivariate ENSO Index

17 1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 3 Month 1 Month

18 Fall Rainfall Climatology

19 U.S. Drought Outlook

20 Tropical Outlook

21 Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal West Point Columbus Carsonville WF George Albany Columbus Woodruff Blountstown

22 23% 52% 25% Lake Lanier Inflows Above Normal Near Normal 11% 11% 78% West Point Whitesburg Lovejoy 11% 35% 54% Carsonville Below Normal Columbus 9% WF George 36% 55% Albany Columbus Woodruff 17% 14% 69% Blountstown

23 Week of May 29th, 2012 Week of June 5th, 2012

24 Note precipitation has removed drought stress over most of region even though hydrologic drought is still high in central Georgia Week of June 12th, 2012 Week of June 19th, 2012 Note high temperatures and lack of rainfall has produced drought stress in North Alabama

25 Note high temperatures and lack of rainfall has produced continual drought stress on corn. Final yield data indicates that North Alabama even though never above D2 drought category had substantial harm. Week of June 26th, 2012 Week of July 3rd, 2012

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28 Weekly Soil Moisture Measurement and vegetative Index (LIS)

29 Summary Drought persists in most of the basin in AL and GA, which is classified as in severe to exceptional drought in the latest drought monitor Rainfall during the previous 7 days has been 2 inches or less for the entire basin. Streamflows and groundwater levels, especially in the southern part of the basin, continue to be still critically low

30 Summary The 5-day rainfall forecast calls for less than 0.5 inches across the basin, which indicates that drought will continue to worsen in the near term Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies and models still indicate the likelihood that El Niño will develop during the fall, with the 1-3 month precipitation outlook calling for above normal rainfall and the drought outlook calling for some improvement of drought conditions in the basin

31 Summary The 1-month and 3-month streamflow forecasts have not changed much since the last briefing, with all forecasts for below normal streamflow levels and a greater than 50% probability of below normal streamflows for all locations in the 3-month forecast New agricultural drought products show the impacts of drought on crops as well as the amount of water crops demand for irrigation

32 References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Tony Gotvald, USGS Bailey Crane, US ACE Jeff Dobur, SERFC Jon Case, NASA Moderator Keith Ingram, UF/SECC Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring & forecasting Groundwater monitoring

33 Thank you! Next briefing 9 October 2012, 1:00 pm EST Slides from this briefing will be posted at Please send comments and suggestions to: ktingram@ufl.edu