Spatial and temporal patterns in air pollution in Pittsburgh: Traffic and point sources

Transcription

1 Spatial and temporal patterns in air pollution in Pittsburgh: Traffic and point sources Albert Presto Dept. of Mechanical Engineering Center for Atmospheric Particle Studies September 24, 2015

2 Acknowledgments CMU: Tim Dallmann, Yi Tan, Bob Gu, Hugh Li, Xiang Li, Allen Robinson, Andrew Hix, Richa Khosla, Jiesi Ma, Neil Donahue, Peter Adams Financial Support: Heinz Endowments This presentation reflects the views of the authors and not any of the funding agencies. No official endorsement should be inferred. 2

3 What you will learn 1. What air pollutants we care about and their relationships to health 2. Spatial and temporal variations in Pittsburgh air pollution 3. Contributions of traffic and industrial point sources to pollutant patterns 3

4 Obligatory slides of smoky Pittsburgh 4

5 1936 5

6 1964 6

7 2006 7

8 However, Pittsburgh still does not meet national standards 8

9 PM 2.5 non-attainment 9

10 What pollutants? Gases Carbon monoxide (CO) Nitrogen oxides (NOx) Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) Organic compounds Particulate matter (PM) Black carbon (BC) PAHs Organic compounds Metals 10

11 EPA National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Pollutant Primary standard(s) Allegheny County non-compliant? Ozone (O 3 ) 75 ppb (8-hr) X PM 10 PM 2.5 (Particulate matter <2.5 mm) NO 2 CO 150 mg/m 3 (24-hr) 12 mg/m 3 (annual) 35 mg/m 3 (24-hr) 53 ppb (annual) 100 ppb (1-hr) 9 ppb (8-hr) 35 ppb (1-hr) SO 2 75 ppb (1-hr) X Lead (Pb) 0.15 mg/m 3 (3-month avg.) X X 11

12 Air toxics ~190 species Benzene, arsenic, etc Carcinogenic, mutagenic, teratogenic Regulated based on emissions 12

13 Air Pollution Impacts Health PREGNANT WOMEN ACTIVES SENIORS At-risk people HEART DISEASE DIABETES CHILDREN & INFANTS EVERYBODY BREATHES! Health effects ASTHMA Source: Breathe Project PRETERM BIRTH, AUTISM HEART DISEASE RESPIRATORY ILLNESS EARLY DEATH 13

14 Adjusted mortality rate Air Pollution and Health: Epidemiology Harvard Six Cities Study Mortality rate was higher in cities with higher PM 2.5 concentrations Result has been repeated for larger studies in more cities. Limitation: Everyone in each city is assigned the same PM 2.5 concentration PM 2.5 (mg m -3 ) 14

15 There is no safe limit EPA rules are set to protect human health Being below the limit does not make health risks zero Health risks persist 15

16 One major goal of our work Improve spatial fidelity relative to estimates from central site monitors 16

17 NYCCAS study: Sample sites 17

18 NYCCAS study: Pollutant maps 18

19 Mobile sampling in Pittsburgh 19

20 Sampling Domain: All Sites

21 [BC_corr] BC (mg m -3 ) Sample grouping: BC and Traffic Summer th %ile mean median 25 th %ile 0.4 SUM_LOW Low Traffic SUM_HIGH High Traffic 21

22 Vehicle Plumes 22

23 The Contribution of High Emitting Vehicles (HEVs) BC (mg/m 3 ) On-road emissions from HEVs Non-plume background Time (min) Tan et al. EST (2014) 23

24 Plumes are from (diesel) vehicles Plumes Background Average daily truck traffic Tan et al. EST (2014) 24

25 Plumes are from (diesel) vehicles Tan et al. EST (2014) 25

26 Mapping Pollutant Concentrations On-road emissions from HEVs Kernel interpolation Bottomup estimation: From Emissions to Concentrations Non-plume background 26

27 From On-road to Near-road Predicted concentration normalized by road edge Kernel Interpolation C(d)=C 0 (1-(d/100) 2 ) Distance (m) Distance to roadway (m) Karner et al., EST, (2010) 27

28 The Contribution of HEVs Bottom-Up Estimation 28

29 Mapping the non-plume background On-road emissions from HEVs Non-plume background Land Use Regression (LUR) Top-down Estimation Link concentrations with independent variables 29

30 Non-plume Background BC Variable Coefficient Intercept 1.39 Average elevation (m) The fraction of commercial land in the 200m buffer The fraction of industrial land in the 200m buffer -1.58E R 2 = 0.55 LOOCV R 2 = 0.44 HV R 2 =

31 BC: Traffic and industrial indicator On-road emissions from HEVs Non-plume background 31

32 NO 2 : Traffic (and industrial) indicator 32

33 Cr: Industrial indicator 33

34 Residential Outdoor Exposure: BC 34

35 Income deciles Environmental Justice: BC Background Plumes Lower income homes are exposed to higher average BC Constant ~0.15 mg m -3 in plume layer 35

36 ~150 deaths per year 36

37 Temporal patterns - Ozone 37

38 Point sources drive temporal changes Overnight plume events 38

39 Point sources drive temporal changes Automobile emissions Industrial emissions 39

40 Point sources: Toluene 40

41 What you will learn 1. What air pollutants we care about and their relationships to health 2. Spatial and temporal variations in Pittsburgh air pollution 3. Contributions of traffic and industrial point sources to pollutant patterns 41

42 42

43 The Contribution of HEVs Bottom-Up Estimation 43

44 Particle-bound PAH (ng m -3 ) Sites are skewed Summer Mean = 16 ng m -3 Median = 9 ng m Site/time rank

45 LUR 101 Observations Independent land use variables from GIS Areas zoned commercial or green space Road length, total traffic Stepwise regression Leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) & Hold-out validation (HV) Eeftens et al., ES&T (2012) 45

46 Total BC Fraction from high emitting (diesel) vehicles

47 LUR for Mobile Monitoring 47