MARRAKECH 2016 COP22 CMP12 CMA1 U N C L I M A T E C H A N G E C O N F E R E N C E
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1 MARRAKECH 2016 COP22 CMP12 CMA1 U N C L I M A T E C H A N G E C O N F E R E N C E Session: Climate Change Friendly Economics and Sustainable Development. November 16, 2016 at 13:00 14:30 Pavilion Indonesia IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AIR QUALITY IN THE URBAN LANDSCAPE Dr. Budi Haryanto Research Center for Climate Change Universitas Indonesia
2 Moderating influences Health Effects effects Temperature-related - related illness and death Climate Change Environment Impacts: Regional weather changes Heat waves Extreme weather Temperature Precipitation Sea-level rise Microbial changes: Contamination pathways Contamination paths Transmission dynamics dynamics Changes in agroecosystems, hydrology Extreme weather- Extreme related (floods, weather storms) - related health effects health effects Air pollution-related - health effects Water and food-borne - borne diseases Vector - borne and rodent - borne diseases Effects of food and water shortages Socioeconomic and demographic disruption Mental, nutritional, infectious-disease and other effects
3 CC Air pollutants Ø Ø Ø Weather conditions influence air quality via the transport and/or formation of pollutants (or pollutant precursors). Weather conditions influence air pollutant emissions, both biogenic emissions (pollen production) and anthropogenic emissions (increased energy demand). Exposure to air pollutants can have many serious health effects. Long-term exposure to elevated levels of air pollution may have greater health effects than acute exposure
4 GHG Air Pollution Ø Indonesia is the world s fifth-ranking greenhouse gas emitter Ø The source of emissions are land use, land-use change, forestry (includes forest fires and peat degradation), and a mixture of energy and transportation-related emissions. Ø Indonesia has the world s highest rate of deforestation. From 2000 to 2012, Indonesia lost more than 23,000 square miles of forest to logging, agriculture, and other uses (Nature). Ø Higher emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) have caused rapidly worsening air pollution
5 Relative proportion of environmental impacts caused by air pollution 12% 28% 60% Note: Average for 6 developing cities Source: Lvovsky et al. Health impacts Climate change Other
6 Urban air pollution and health Pollutants of concern Lead Particulate matter Benzene CO SO x Other toxics NO x Ozone Health effects Adverse birth outcomes Asthma attacks and bronchitis Lung cancer Heart attacks Mortality
7 WHO REPORT 2012
8 ESTIMATED CAUSE OF DEATHS WHO, 2012
9 Air pollution in Indonesia Ø Major environmental problem, urban areas being most affected. Ø The transportation sector contributes 80% followed by emissions from industry, forest fires and domestic activities. Ø The large number of vehicles together with lack of infrastructure results in major traffic congestions (mainly in urban centers) resulting in high levels of air polluting substances. Ø Forest fires are a major contributor to air pollution on a local, national and regional scale.
10 Human cost of air pollution Ø In Indonesia, the 2015 haze caused upward of 75,000 cases of upper respiratory infections (Carrington 15). Ø Ø In Jakarta, a 2010 study found that 57.8% of the population suffered from various diseases related to air pollution, including bronchial asthma, bronchopneumonia, and coronary artery diseases (Safrudin 15). The national 35,000-megawatt development project is expected to increase the number of premature deaths from 6,500 to 28,300 people per year due to impending air pollution from coal-fired power plants (Greenpeace 15).
11 NUMBER OF CASES Ø 1,210,581 people suffered by asthmatic bronchiale (12.6%) Ø 153,724 people with bronchopneumonia ( 1.6%) Ø 2,449,986 with ARI (25.5%) Ø 336,273 people with pneumonia ( 3.5%) Ø 153,724 people with COPD ( 1.6%) Ø 1,246,130 people with coronary artery diseases (13.0%) 57.8% of the Jakarta population had already suffered by various air pollution-related diseases in 2010
12 Estimation cost of illness on diseases related to air pollution in Jakarta 2010 (in IDR) Health Impacts Incidence Per 100,000 Cost per patient Estimated cost in Jakarta Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum Asthmatic bronchiale Bronchopneumonia ARI Pneumonia COPD Coronary artery diseases 12, , , , , , ,972 91,500 92, , , ,763 4,418,618 3,650,813 4,774,843 5,455,359 5,276,800 14,647, ,607,225,915 14,065,837, ,746,580,987 36,901,876,543 25,235,582, ,378,033,307 5,349,095,712, ,221,228,425 11,698,296,998,123 1,834,489,937, ,176,080,000 18,253,187,244,690 Total 697,935,136,999 38,507,467,201,119 US $ 53,846,154 2,962,112,861
13 CO (ppm) PRIVATE CAR AC /6/2005 7:34:34 9:04:34 10:34:34 12:04:34 13:34:34 15:04:34 16:34:34 18:04:34 19:34:34 21:05:50 22:35:50 0:05:50 1:35:50 3:05:50
14 CO (ppm) PRIVATE CAR NON-AC /26/2005 7:43:44 9:14:44 10:47:22 12:17:22 13:47:22 15:17:22 16:47:22 18:26:28 19:56:28 21:26:28 22:56:28 0:26:28 1:56:28 3:26:28 4:56:28 6:26:28
15 PM 2.5 (mg/m 3 ) PRIVATE CAR NON-AC :48:36 7:13:36 7:37:36 8:02:36 8:27:36 8:51:36 9:15:36 9:39:36 10:03:36 10:27:36 10:51:36 11:15:36 11:39:36 12:03:36 12:27:36 12:51:36 13:15:36 13:39:36 14:03:36 14:27:36 14:51:36 15:15:36 15:39:36 16:03:36 16:27:36 16:51:36 17:16:36
16 PM 2.5, ASTHMA AND LUNG FUNCTION: URBAN SPATIAL STUDY ANGERANG AND MAKASSAR 2011
17 COORDINATES OF PM2.5 MEASUREMENT TANGERANG 2011
18 COORDINATES OF PM2.5 MEASUREMENT MAKASSAR 2011
19 ASTHMA PREVALENCE IN TANGERANG AND MAKASSAR 2011 Asthma Status Tangerang Makassar n (4250) % n (2900) % Asthma Status Asthma Non-asthma ,3 55, ,3 58,9 Experienced asthma < 1 year 1 year and more ,5 75, ,9 54,1 Last asthma attack Last 6 days A week to 3 months ago >3 months ago ,0 24,5 41, ,7 43,3 27,0 Frequency of attack 1-3 times 4-10 times >10 times ,8 9,4 3, ,6 29,7 2,7
20 LUNG FUNCTION IN TANGERANG AND MAKASSAR 2011 Lung function Tangerang Makassar N % N % Normal Abnormal ,4 82, ,5 84,5 Total
21 SCHOOL CHILDREN ACUTE RESPIRATORY INFECTION: COHORT STUDY JAKARTA 2004
22 Study cohort ARI School Children Jakarta 2004 Group Number of incidence Incidence Rate (%) Survival Time (days) Hazard Ratio P - value Sore throat High polluted Low polluted Cough High polluted Low polluted Phlegm High polluted Low polluted Nasal High polluted Low polluted Cough+Phlegm High polluted Low polluted Cough+Nasal High polluted Low polluted
23 RECYCLING BATTERY AND COMMUNITY BLOOD LEAD LEVELS: JAKARTA, TEGAL, TANGERANG, LAMONGAN 2015
24 BLL S RECYCLING BATTERY Workers & Communities: - 92% above 30 µg/dl (50 respondents) (BLH Tegal, 2011) - 32% above 10 µg/dl (400 respondents) (MerC Tegal, 2011) Children under 5 years old (Jakarta 2015, UI-CDC): - 51% above 5 µg/dl (247 children) - 10% above 10 µg/dl (247 children) Elementary school children (UI-KLHK, 2015) - 100% of 60 children above 10 µg/dl in Tangerang % of 72 children above 10 µg/dl in Lamongan
25 BLLs HEALTH RISK
26 DEATHS CAUSED BY NCDs In INDONESIA (WHO Report 2010) ü Total dead 1.1 million people (2008) = 63,6 % of all causes ü 30,6 % cardiovascular diseases ü 14,5 % heart ischemic ü 12,9 % cancers Prevalence of diabetes mellitus 7 million people (2010)
27 Proportion of Deaths caused by NCDs in SKRT 1995 SKRT 2001 Riskesdas 2007
28 CANCER CASES IN INDONESIA
29 CHALLENGES
30 Indonesia is the largest energy consumer in ASEAN and the world currently. The range growth of energy consumption is about 6-8 percent per year (IEA 13) Source: ESDM 2014
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36 CO 2 Jakarta, BAU vs 2 degrees
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38 CONCLUSION Ø Climate change significantly influences air quality Ø Air pollution is a major environmental health challenge and putting more than 58% population suffered to health effects urban setting (Jakarta) Ø Air pollutants are highly existed and to be sharply increased in the future Ø More than half of urban cities population are in severe risk of having serious health effects
39 RECOMMENDATION Ø Enhance energy security, improve efficiency in energy production and use, increase reliance on non-fossil fuels, and decreased fossil fuel consumption. Ø Support clean-energy technologies. Ø Adopt European emission standards (Euro 4 in 2017 or in 2021 or in 2023 and Euro 6 in 2025) and vehicle technology Ø Switching the basic mode of transportation by enhancing public transports and transportation management Ø Increase total green space in urban setting (Jakarta from 10% to 30% or 40%) Breathing is will never been stopped. 9 M 3 of air, with all of pollutants, are inhaled in every single minute each person. Don t wait, do action now..!!
40 Thanks kindly for your attention
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