ASTHO: Climate Change and Public Health February 19, 2008

Transcription

1 ASTHO: Climate Change and Public Health February 19, 2008

2 Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious and SARS Diseases

3 Convergence Model Genetic and Biological Factors Animals E I D Physical and Environmental Factors including Climate Humans Wildlife Social, Political, and Economic Factors Ecological Factors

4 Infectious Disease Ecology Accelerating prevention, control, & elimination of ecology-mediated microbial threats Systems approach with cross-cutting themes Global approach Ecosystem Health Animal Health Human Health

5 Natural Earth Cycles and Wobbles Mammals Present

6 Changes in temperature, sea level and northern hemisphere snow cover Global average temperature Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover Direct observations of recent climate change (IPCC, 2007)

7 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health* Climate change effects: Temperature Sea level Precipitation Extreme events Food Water Coastal flooding Infectious Dx Air Quality Heat Malnutrition Drought Displacement Morbidity/mortality Respiratory diseases Direct effects Civil conflict Morbidity/mortality/ displacement * Excludes major impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems

8 Equity Some regions will be more affected than others: The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem changes) Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops) Small islands (coastal erosion, inundation) Asian mega-deltas (flooding from sea and rivers) Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable: Coral reefs, marine shell organisms Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions 20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction

9 Predicting the Effects of Climate Change Incomplete knowledge and few long-term studies Ecological cycles are complex and vary between regions Many confounding factors of human origin Land-use patterns agricultural and industrial development water management cultural and behavioral factors, etc. Many global changes appear to be occurring (Sutherst 2004 and others) Climate Atmospheric composition Urbanization Land use, landcover, and biodiversity Trade and travel Civil unrest and unstable governments Other factors Global climate change likely to present emerging disease threats Assessing effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases Source: Data from Chan et al. 1999; Figure in Gubler et al. 2001

10 Public Health Response to Climate Change Modeling and long-term ecological and epidemiological research on influence of environmental changes on disease cycles Strengthen public health infrastructure to improve measures to reduce the spread of disease or disease vectors and hosts Enhanced surveillance - Human cases in previously disease-free areas -Introduction of new vectors, hosts, or pathogens -Changing transmission patterns recognition and response - Identify potential vulnerable populations Preparedness: Review, evaluate and prepare countermeasures (vaccines, therapeutic agents, insecticides, etc.) Training & Education: PH workforce

11 Key technologies to reduce emissions Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available Energy Supply Transportation Buildings Efficiency; fuel switching; renewable (hydropower,solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; nuclear power; early applications of CO2 capture and storage More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels;modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and aircodition; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances

12 Key policies to reduce emissions Appropriate incentives for development of technologies Changes in lifestyle and behavior patterns, especially in building, transport and industrial sectors Effective carbon price signal to create incentives to invest in low-ghg products, technologies and processes Appropriate energy infrastructure investment decisions, which have long term effects on emissions