SINGAPORE POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Transcription

1 REFERENCE CODE GDPE0773ICR PUBLICATION DATE M AY 2015 SINGAPORE POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

2 Executive Summary Singapore s Power Market Outlook As a global economic stalwart, Singapore is characterized by a lack of domestic energy resources but huge success in harnessing its work force and economic resources. It is an entrepôt economy, meaning that it imports resources and re-exports them after significant value addition. The services sector is the leading contributor to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), contributing more than XX%. Between 2000 and 2014, the GDP (at constant prices) increased at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX%. Power consumption, of which the manufacturing and services sector is the leading contributor, also increased, at a CAGR of XX%. Power Market, Singapore, Gross Domestic Product ($bn) and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), Between 2000 and 2014, annual power consumption increased from XX TWh to XX TWh, owing to economic and population growth. Annual electricity generation increased from XX TWh to XX TWh, at a CAGR of XX%. Renewable generation is still in its nascent stages and the growth in electricity generation came almost entirely from thermal sources. Power Market, Singapore, Annual Power Consumption and Generation (TWh), Annual power consumption and generation (TWh) Annual power consumption Annual power generation GDP ($bn) Annual power consumption (TWh) Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on April 2, 2015] GDP (constant prices) Annual power consumption Source: GlobalData; IMF, 2014 TWh: Terawatt hours 2

3 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents List of Tables List of Figures Introduction GlobalData Report Guidance Singapore, Power Market, Snapshot Singapore, Power Market, Macro-economic Factors Singapore, Power Market, Supply Security Singapore, Power Market, Opportunities Singapore, Power Market, Challenges Singapore, Power Market, Market Analysis Singapore, Power Market, Supply Structure Structure of National Electricity Market of Singapore Players in National Electricity Market of Singapore Singapore, Power Market, Key Market Players Singapore, Power Market, Financial Deals Deal Volume and Value Analysis, 2004 to March Deals by Type, Singapore, Power Market, Demand Structure Power Consumption by Sector, Singapore, Power Market, Regulatory Scenario Singapore, Power Market, Electricity Act Electricity Licenses Singapore Energy Policy Renewable Energy in Singapore Singapore, Power Market, Capacity and Generation Overview

4 Table of Contents 6.1 Singapore, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity, by Fuel Type, Singapore, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation, Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity and Annual Thermal Power Generation, Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity and Annual Renewable Power Generation, Singapore, Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Overview Singapore, Power Market, Transmission Overview Upcoming Projects Singapore, Power Market, Distribution Overview Singapore, Power Market, Grid Interconnection Singapore, Power Market, Electricity Trading Singapore, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Leading Power Generating Companies Key Company in the Singapore Power Market: Senoko Energy Pte Ltd Company Overview Business Description SWOT Overview Key Company in the Singapore Power Market: YTL PowerSeraya Pte. Limited Company Overview Business Description SWOT Overview Key Company in the Singapore Power Market: Tuas Power Ltd Company Overview Business Description SWOT Overview Key Company in the Singapore Power Market: Keppel Merlimau Cogen Pte Ltd Company Overview

5 Table of Contents Business Description SWOT Overview Key Company in the Singapore Power Market: Sembcorp Cogen Pte Ltd Company Overview Business Description SWOT Overview Appendix Market Definitions Power Installed Capacity Electricity Generation Electricity Consumption Thermal Power Plant Hydropower Plant Nuclear Power Renewable Energy Resources Abbreviations Bibliography GlobalData s Methodology Coverage Secondary Research and Analysis Primary Research and Analysis Disclaimer

6 Table of Contents 1.1 List of Tables Table 1: Power Market, Singapore, Gross Domestic Product ($bn), Population (million), and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), Table 2: Power Market, Singapore, Market Share of Power Generation Companies (%), Table 3: Power Market, Singapore, Deal Value ($m) and Number of Deals, 2004 to March Table 4: Power Market, Singapore, Deals by Type (%), Table 5: Power Market, Singapore, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), Table 6: Power Market, Singapore, Power Consumption by Sector (%), Table 7: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), Table 8: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), Table 9: Power Market, Singapore, Leading Thermal Power Plants (MW), Table 10: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal Power Generation (TWh), Table 11: Power Market, Singapore, Number and Installed Capacity of Solar PV Installations (kwac), Table 12: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity and Annual Renewable Power Generation, Table 13: Power Market, Singapore, Transmission Line Length (Ckm), Table 14: Power Market, Singapore, Distribution Line Length (Ckm), Table 15: Power Market, Singapore, Senoko Energy Pte Ltd., SWOT Profile, Table 16: Power Market, Singapore, YTL PowerSeraya Pte. Limited, SWOT Profile, Table 17: Power Market, Singapore, Tuas Power Ltd., SWOT Profile, Table 18: Power Market, Singapore, Keppel Merlimau Cogen Pte Ltd, SWOT Profile, Table 19: Power Market, Singapore, Sembcorp Cogen Pte Ltd, SWOT Profile, Table 20: Abbreviations

7 Table of Contents 1.2 List of Figures Figure 1: Power Market, Singapore, Gross Domestic Product ($bn), Population (million), and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), Figure 2: Power Market, Singapore, Market Share of Power Generation Companies (%), Figure 3: Power Market, Singapore, Deal Value ($m) and Number of Deals, 2004 to March Figure 4: Power Market, Singapore, Deals by Type (%), Figure 5: Power Market, Singapore, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), Figure 6: Power Market, Singapore, Power Consumption by Sector (%), Figure 7: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), Figure 8: Figure 9: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal Power Generation (TWh), Figure 10: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Renewable Power Generation (TWh),

8 Introduction 2 Introduction The Singapore economy is one of the most developed and successful in the world. However, it is not an entirely free-market economy. It can most aptly be described as a mixed economic system. The government promotes free-market policies, but strong government intervention has been observed in land, labor and other capital resources. Singapore s economic system, where the state and market forces play equally strong roles in governance, has become a model for economic growth for many countries that aspire to economichub status. This unique system evolved as a result of Singapore s lack of natural resources, small size and limited human resources. Since the 1960s, the government has focused on economic policies aimed at encouraging Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and international trade, mainly owing to a limited domestic market. The scarcity of land has also mandated strong governmental land regulations. The services sector dominates Singapore s economy, and is followed in dominance by the industrial sector. There is no agricultural sector. In 2014, the services sector contributed an estimated XX% of Singapore s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while the remaining XX% was contributed by the industrial sector (CIA, 2014). International trade is very important to Singapore s economy. As Singapore lacks mineral resources and agricultural produce, it depends on trade to import these items. It has very few trade barriers, and most of the restrictions that it places on imports are based on environmental, health, and public security concerns. Singapore is also a significant exporter and, in 2013, was ranked the 15 th largest exporter in the world (CIA, 2014). It is a major exporter of digital and electronic items, which it manufactures. It is expected that biomedical and pharmaceutical goods, which are being promoted by government policies, will also become major export items. A large section of its exports is what is known as entrepôt trading, that is, re-exports. Re-exports generally constitute between XX% and XX% of Singapore s total exports. Crude oil, which Singapore imports, refines, and then exports, is one of the most important commodities that Singapore re-exports. Generally, Singapore does not import or export any electricity. All the power that it needs is generated within Singapore and is also consumed within it. Power consumption is expected to increase at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX%, between 2015 and

9 Introduction The power sector is regulated by the Energy Market Authority (EMA), which falls under the energy division of the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). The wholesale electricity market is regulated by the Energy Market Company (EMC). The government has policies that favor the growth of renewable power, but it is reluctant to provide either subsidies or Feed-in Tariffs (FiT). This is due to its desire for the sector to grow into a robust system that is not dependent on the government for survival. 2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance The executive summary captures the key growth trends in the Singapore power market. Chapter three provides a snapshot of the key parameters that impact Singapore s power sector and key points about the power market. Chapter four provides an analysis of the Singapore power market. Chapter five details the regulatory scenario of the power market and the FDI scenario in Singapore. Chapter six provides information on Singapore s cumulative installed capacity and annual generation trends, by individual generation source. Chapter seven describes the power transmission and distribution infrastructure in Singapore and provides information on interconnectors with neighboring countries. The section also covers electricity imports and exports and upcoming grid-related projects in Singapore. Note: All 2014 market numbers provided in the report are estimates, except where actual data were available. 10

10 Market Analysis 4.2 Singapore, Power Market, Key Market Players Senoko Energy was the largest power generation utility in Singapore in 2014 with an estimated share of XX%, followed by PowerSeraya, with a share of XX%, and Tuas Power, with a share of XX%. Keppel Merlimau had a share of XX%, while PacificLight and SembCorp had a share of XX% and XX%, respectively. The remaining share of XX% was contributed by other smaller power generation companies. Figure 2: Power Market, Singapore, Market Share of Power Generation Companies (%), 2014 SembCorp Other PacificLight Senoko Energy Keppel Merlimau Tuas Power PowerSeraya Source: GlobalData Table 2: Power Market, Singapore, Market Share of Power Generation Companies (%), 2014 Company Senoko Energy PowerSeraya Tuas Power Keppel Merlimau PacificLight SembCorp Other Source: GlobalData Share 18

11 Capacity and Generation Overview 6.2 Singapore, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation, Cumulative installed capacity increased from XX GW in 2000 to XX GW in 2014, at a CAGR of XX%. Thermal power capacity was the mainstay of power generation during this period and is expected to remain so during the forecast period. It is expected to decrease at a negative CAGR of XX%, while total installed capacity is expected to decrease at a negative CAGR of XX%. In 2025, total installed capacity and installed thermal capacity are expected to be XX GW and XX GW, respectively. Singapore did not have any coal-based power until Its installed coal capacity was XX MW in 2013 and increased to XX MW in Oil-based power capacity decreased at a negative CAGR of XX% from 2000 to 2014, while gas-based generation increased steadily at a CAGR of XX% during this period. The importance of gas-based generation has increased owing to a rise in the number of Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) power plants, which are more efficient and release fewer emissions. Renewable power generation in Singapore comes mostly from biomass power plants and solar PV installations. The growth of renewables in Singapore has been slow. Its installed renewable power capacity increased by only XX%, between 2000 and 2014, but is expected to grow at a CAGR of XX%, between 2015 and The considerable proportion of thermal power generation in total power generation is reflected in the fact that annual thermal power generation and annual total power generation each grew by XX% between 2000 and Annual thermal generation is expected to increase at a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period, reaching XX TWh in

12 Capacity and Generation Overview Figure 8: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), Cumulative installed capacity (GW) Annual power generation (TWh) Cumulative installed capacity Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on April 1, 2015] Annual power generation 30

13 Capacity and Generation Overview Table 8: Power Market, Singapore, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), Year Cumulative installed capacity Annual power generation Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on April 1, 2015] 31

14 Appendix 9 Appendix 9.1 Market Definitions Power Power refers to the rate of production, transfer or energy use, usually related to electricity. It is measured in Watts (W) and often expressed in kilowatts (kw) or Megawatts (MW). It is also known as real power or active power Installed Capacity Installed capacity refers to the generator s nameplate capacity, as stated by the manufacturer, or the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. It is given in Megawatts (MW) on a nameplate affixed to the generator Electricity Generation Electricity generation refers to the process of generating electricity from other forms of energy. It also refers to the amount of electricity produced, expressed in Gigawatt hours (GWh) Electricity Consumption Electricity consumption is the sum of electricity generated, plus imports, minus exports and transmission and distribution losses. It is measured in Gigawatt hours (GWh) Thermal Power Plant A thermal power plant is a plant in which turbine generators are driven by burning fossil fuels Hydropower Plant A hydropower plant is a plant in which the turbine generators are driven by falling water Nuclear Power Nuclear power is the energy released from the fission of nuclear fuel in a reactor. 64

15 Appendix Renewable Energy Resources Renewable energy resources are those that provide energy that is naturally replenished but limited in the amount of energy available per unit of time. Biomass, geothermal, solar, small hydro and wind are examples of renewable resources. 9.2 Abbreviations Table 20: Abbreviations ASEAN CAGR CCGT CCP Ckm EMA EMC FDI FiT GDP GW GWh kv kw kwac MSSL MTI MW NEMS SP TWh UNFCCC Source: GlobalData Association of Southeast Asian Nations Compound Annual Growth Rate Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Plant Circuit kilometer Energy Market Authority Energy Market Company Foreign Direct Investment Feed-in Tariff Gross Domestic Product Gigawatt Gigawatt hours kilovolt kilowatt kilowatt alternating current Market Support Services Licensee Ministry of Trade and Industry Megawatt National Electricity Market of Singapore Singapore Power Group Terawatt hour United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 65

16 Appendix 9.3 Bibliography CIA (2014). Singapore: The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency. Available from: [Accessed on April 1, 2015] EMA, 2014a. Generating Plants Availability Outage & Remaining Capacity [database]. Available from: [Accessed on April 1, 2015] EMA, 2014b. Monthly Peak System Demand [database]. Available from: [Accessed on April 1, 2015] EMA, 2014c. Solar PV Installations by Planning Region [database]. Available from: [Accessed on April 1, 2015] IMF, World Economic Outlook [database]. Available from: [Accessed on April 1, 2015] SEAS (2014). SEAS White Paper on Accelerating Renewable Energy in Singapore. Sustainable Energy Association of Singapore, Available from: [Accessed on April 1, 2015] Webb S (2013), via DLA Piper Australia. Singapore: Renewable energy in the Asia Pacific: a legal overview (3rd edition) Singapore, Mondaq, September 11, Available from: gal+overview+3rd+edition+singapore [Accessed on April 1, 2015] 9.4 GlobalData s Methodology GlobalData s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with advanced statistical expertise and marketing, market research and consulting backgrounds in the energy industry. GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society ( and Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals ( 66

17 Appendix All of GlobalData s databases are continuously updated and revised. The following methodology has been followed for the collection and analysis of data presented in this report. 9.5 Coverage This report covers the Singapore power market, examining the market structure and providing historical generation, capacity and consumption forecasts until It also looks at the market s regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape and leading active and upcoming power projects Secondary Research and Analysis The capacity, generation and consumption data is collected and validated using a number of secondary resources including but not limited to: Government agencies, ministry websites, industry associations, the World Bank, IMF, and statistical databases Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, analyst reports and investor presentations Industry trade journals, market reports and other literature GlobalData s proprietary databases such as the Capacity and Generation Database, Power Plant Database and Transmission and Distribution Database Further to this, the following secondary information is collected and analyzed to project Singapore s power market scenario to 2025, analyzing factors such as: Macro-economic scenario Government regulations, policies and targets Government and private sector investment Contract and deal announcements Utility expansion plans The sector s historical track record 67

18 Appendix Other qualitative insights built through secondary research and analysis of company websites, annual reports, investor presentations, industry and trade journals, and data from industry associations Primary Research and Analysis Secondary research is further complemented through primary interviews with industry participants to verify the market numbers obtained through secondary research and obtain first-hand information on industry trends. The participants are drawn from a diverse set of backgrounds, including power producers, equipment manufacturers, industry associations, government bodies, utilities, distributors, and academia. The participants include but are not limited to C-level executives, industry consultants, academic experts, business development and sales managers, purchasing managers, plant managers, government officials and industry spokespersons. 9.6 Disclaimer All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and should not to be reproduced without prior permission. 68