Luxembourg Power Market Outlook to 2030 Business Propensity Indicator (BPI), Market Trends, Regulations and Competitive Landscape

Transcription

1 Luxembourg Power Market Outlook to 2030 Business Propensity Indicator (BPI), Market Trends, Regulations and Competitive Landscape GDPE0638ICR / Published March 2013

2 Hydropower Dominates Power Generation in Luxembourg Luxembourg s installed capacity is dominated by hydropower, which accounted for XX% or XX Megawatts (MW) of total installed capacity in The XX MW capacity Vianden Pumped Storage Plant (PSP), which is the largest hydro power facility in Luxembourg, is used at times of peak load demand. There are also a number of run-of-the-river power plants in the country, which account for a minor share of the country s total hydro capacity. Societe Electrique de l'our (SEO SA), the main hydroelectric power company in Luxembourg, is planning to further augment the country s hydropower capacity, through the construction of the third phase of the existing Vianden PSP, comprising XX MW of capacity. Luxembourg s cumulative installed hydropower capacity is expected to increase at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX% to reach XX MW by Power Market, Luxembourg, Hydropower Installed Capacity (MW), Power Generation to Continue to Grow Electricity generation in Luxembourg has registered a fluctuating trend, due to the varying patterns of both thermal and hydropower generation. Total power generation amounted to XX GWh in 2000, which increased to XX GWh in 2005, before declining to XX GWh in The generation of power from thermal sources increased substantially following the installation of the XX MW capacity Twinerg Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) plant in However, thermal power generation declined substantially in The generation of power from hydro sources has also registered a fluctuating trend, with generation declining substantially in 2010 and The generation of power from renewable energy sources registered stable growth, increasing from XX GWh in 2000 to XX GWh in 2011, at a CAGR XX%. Power Market, Luxembourg, Annual Power Generation (GWh), Hydropower installed capacity (MW) Annual power generation (GWh) Source: GlobalData, Power e Track, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on November 25, 2012] Source: GlobalData, Power e Track, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on October 11, 2012] The Future of Renewable Energy The Ministry of Sustainable Development and Infrastructure is responsible for the promotion of energy conservation and renewable energy development in Luxembourg. The Ministry promotes the development of renewable energy and the rational use of energy through the provision of various financial aids and incentives. This renewable energy policy was created based on European Union (EU) directives and quantitative targets. According to Directive 2001/XX/EC, Luxembourg set a target for XX% of its electricity consumption to be generated from renewable sources by A revised policy was implemented in 2008, which mandated that Luxembourg should aim to source XX% of its electricity from renewable energy sources by In order to achieve these targets, the government in Luxembourg is promoting the development of renewable energy though the provision of Feed-In Tariffs (FITs) and investment subsidies. Page 2

3 1 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents List of Tables List of Figures Introduction GlobalData Report Guidance Luxembourg, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator Methodology Methodology for Evaluating the Business Propensity Indicator for Luxembourg in Western Europe Supply Security Regulatory Scenario Infrastructure Macroeconomic Scenario Competitive Scenario Future Potential Methodology Adopted to Arrive at Final Rank Luxembourg, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator Supply Security Regulatory Scenario Infrastructure Degree of Competition Macro-Economic Factors Future Potential Luxembourg, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking Luxembourg Power Market Analysis, Luxembourg, Power Market, Installed Capacity, Installed Capacity: Breakup by Type of Power Plant, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Generation, Thermal Installed Capacity and Generation, Hydropower Installed Capacity and Generation, Renewable Power Installed Capacity and Generation, Luxembourg, Power Market, Import and Export Scenario Luxembourg, Power Market, Annual Power Consumption, Luxembourg, Power Market, Power Consumption by Sector, Luxembourg, Power Market, Infrastructure Overview Luxembourg, Power Market, Active Power Projects Leading Thermal Power Projects Leading Hydropower Projects Leading Renewable Projects Luxembourg, Power Market, Upcoming Power Projects Leading Hydropower Projects Luxembourg, Power Market, Transmission Network Overview Luxembourg, Power Market, Distribution Network Overview Luxembourg, Power Market, Grid Interconnection Luxembourg, Power Market, Electricity Trading Luxembourg, Power Market, Regulatory Structure Luxembourg, Power Market, Regulatory Structure Overview Luxembourg, Power Market, Market Reforms Luxembourg, Power Market, Renewable Energy Policy and Incentives Luxembourg, Power Market, Energy Efficiency Luxembourg, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Leading Power Generating Companies Luxembourg, Power Market, Market Share of Major Power Generating Company Key Company in the Luxembourg Power Market, Societe Electrique de l'our SA Societe Electrique de l'our SA, Company Overview Societe Electrique de l'our SA, Business Description Societe Electrique de l'our SA, SWOT Analysis Key Company in the Luxembourg Power Market, Twinerg S.A Twinerg S.A., Company Overview Twinerg S.A, Business Description Page 3

4 8.3.3 Twinerg S.A., SWOT Analysis Appendix Market Definitions Power Installed Capacity Active Installed Capacity Electricity Generation Electricity Consumption Thermal Power Plant Hydropower Plant Nuclear Power Renewable Energy Resources Abbreviations Bibliography GlobalData s Methodology Coverage Secondary research and analysis Primary Research and Analysis Contact Us Disclaimer Page 4

5 1.1 List of Tables Table 1: Ease of Doing Business-Categories and Definitions Table 2: Country Risk-Categories and Sub-categories Table 3: BPI Scoring Parameters Table 4: Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), Table 5: Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation (GWh), Table 6: Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh), Table 7: Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation Table 8: (GWh), Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh), Table 9: Power Market, Luxembourg, Total Annual Imports and Exports (GWh), Table 10: Power Market, Luxembourg, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), Table 11: Power Market, Luxembourg, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption by Sector (%), Table 12: Power Market, Luxembourg, Leading Active Thermal Power Projects, Table 13: Power Market, Luxembourg, Leading Active Renewable Power Projects, Table 14: Power Market, Luxembourg, Transmission Line Length (Ckm), Table 15: Power Market, Luxembourg, Distribution Line Length (Ckm), Table 16: Power Market, Luxembourg, Installed Capacity Share of Major Power Companies (%), Table 17: Societe Electrique de l'our SA, SWOT Analysis Table 18: Twinerg S.A., SWOT Analysis Table 19: Abbreviations Page 5

6 1.2 List of Figures Figure 1: Weights Assigned to the Six Factors (%), Figure 2: Power Market, Luxembourg, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking Figure 3: Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), Figure 4: Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation (GWh), Figure 5: Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh), Figure 6: Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh), Figure 7: Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh), Figure 8: Power Market, Luxembourg, Annual Imports and Exports (GWh), Figure 9: Power Market, Luxembourg, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), Figure 10: Power Market, Luxembourg, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption by Sector (%), Figure 11: Power Market, Luxembourg, Installed Capacity Share of Major Power Companies (%), Page 6

7 2 Introduction Luxembourg is a highly developed country with a sophisticated, industrialized economy. Traditionally dominated by the steel industry, the industrial sector in the country is highly diversified and includes chemicals, rubber and other products. The country s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), measured at current prices, amounted to $XX billion in 2011 (IMF, 2011). Luxembourg has also emerged as a major financial hub, and now accounts for around XX% of the country s GDP (CIA, 2012). Most banks in the country are foreign owned and are engaged in extensive foreign business. Stable political conditions, easy access to the European financial sector, and the strength of the communication network have contributed substantially to the growth of the financial sector. The telecommunication sector has developed substantially and Luxembourg now features as one of the leading countries in the European telecommunication sector. The growth of the telecommunication sector can be attributed to favorable government policies. The government in the country is investing substantially in the infrastructure sector in order to diversify its services sector, in order to position itself as an e-commerce and technology centre in Europe. Luxembourg has strong macro-economic fundamentals. Low inflation and unemployment rates have been characteristic features of Luxembourg s economy. However, the country also fell into recession in late The country s GDP growth rate fell by XX% in 2009, which rebounded to XX% in 2010 (CIA, 2012). This was due largely to the stimulus measures implemented by the government in order to boost the economy. The Ministry of the Economy and Foreign Trade is responsible for overseeing the energy sector. The Institut Luxembourgeois de Regulation (ILR) is the regulator for the electricity market. The electricity market is governed by the National Law on the Organization of the Electricity Market, which was passed in Societe Electrique de l'our SA (SEO SA), is the main generating company in the country, followed by Twinerg SA. The country intends to increase its renewable installed capacity, through the provision of FITs and investment subsidies. According to the EU Directive 2001/XX/EC, Luxembourg initially set a target to meet XX% of its electricity consumption from renewable sources by However, a new revised policy was implemented in 2008, which mandated that an XX% share of total final consumption of energy be generated from renewable energy sources by Page 7

8 2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance This report comprises an executive summary capturing key growth trends in the Luxembourg power market. Chapter three covers the methodology for evaluating the Business Propensity Indicator (BPI). Chapter four covers the BPI for Luxembourg. Chapter five covers cumulative capacity and power generation information, and segmentation by source of energy between 2000 and 2011, with forecasts to 2030 provided. This is followed by the consumption scenario for the market and power consumption patterns from 2000 to 2011, with forecasts to Chapter six provides information on the infrastructure overview of the country. This includes leading active and planned power plants, segmented according to source of energy. Data is also provided relating to electricity transmission infrastructure and future development plans. Chapter seven on regulatory structure provides brief descriptions of Luxembourg s power regulatory structure and prominent policies influencing the future of the power market. Chapter eight describes the competitive landscape of the country s power market, with a complete description and SWOT analysis provided for the leading companies. Page 8

9 4 Luxembourg, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator 4.1 Supply Security Luxembourg is a net importing country, having registered an import dependency ratio of XX% in Regulatory Scenario The Ministry of the Economy and Foreign Trade is responsible for overseeing the energy sector. 4.3 Infrastructure Luxembourg has already achieved a XX% electrification rate. 4.4 Degree of Competition The electricity market in Luxembourg is dominated by SEO SA, which accounts for a share of almost XX% of the country s installed capacity, followed by Twinerg SA, which accounts for a XX% share as of Macro-Economic Factors In terms of ease of doing business, Luxembourg is currently ranked XXth globally, out of a total XX countries (World Bank, 2012). 4.6 Future Potential In 2020, hydropower capacity is expected to continue to dominate the installed capacity in the country, with a share of XX%. Page 16

10 4.7 Luxembourg, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking Luxembourg ranks at the bottom spot in terms of the electricity market development, amongst the seventeen Western European nations compared. High dependence on electricity imports, skewed power mix, lacklustre development of the renewable sector and absence of competition in the power generation, transmission and distribution sector are some of the reasons responsible for the sluggish growth in the country s power sector. The future outlook of the country s electricity sector does not seem to look very promising as no major investments or initiatives are being planned by the government. Figure 2: Power Market, Luxembourg, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking Source: GlobalData, Internal analysis Refer to BPI methodology section for more details Page 17

11 5 Luxembourg Power Market Analysis, Luxembourg, Power Market, Installed Capacity, Installed Capacity: Breakup by Type of Power Plant, 2011 Hydropower plants dominated the Luxembourg power market in 2011, accounting for XX% of total capacity, followed by gas-fired plants, which accounted for XX% of total capacity. The remaining XX% share was accounted for by renewable energy plants. Figure 3: Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011 Renewable Gas-fired Hydro Source: GlobalData, Power e Track, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on November 25, 2012] Table 4: Type of power plant Hydro Gas-fired Renewable Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011 Source: GlobalData, Power e Track, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on November 25, 2012] Percentage share Page 18

12 5.1.2 Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Generation, Cumulative installed capacity amounted to XX MW in 2000, increasing at a CAGR of XX% to reach XX MW in Between 2000 and 2011, gas-fired installed capacity increased from nine MW to XX MW. Renewable capacity registered a CAGR of XX% during the same period. During the forecast period, from 2012 to 2030, Luxembourg s cumulative installed capacity is expected to grow at a CAGR of XX% to reach a total of XX MW in Renewable thermal installed capacity is expected to increase substantially from XX MW in 2012 to XX MW in The total amount of electricity generated in Luxembourg amounted to XX Gigawatt Hour (GWh) in 2011, having increased from XX GWh in Between 2012 and 2030, total electricity generation in the country is expected to increase at a CAGR of XX% to reach XX GWh in Figure 4: Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation (GWh), Cumulative installed capacity (MW) Total power generation (GWh) Total Installed Capacity (MW) Total Power Generation (GWh) Source: GlobalData, Power e Track, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on November 25, 2012] Page 19

13 Table 5: Power Market, Luxembourg, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) and Annual Power Generation (GWh), Year Total installed capacity (MW) Total power generation (GWh) Source: GlobalData, Power e Track, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on November 25, 2012] Page 20

14 9 Appendix 9.1 Market Definitions The geographical coverage of this report is Luxembourg. The report covers market segments related to installed electricity capacity, generation, consumption, and power infrastructure and regulations. The report covers the whole of Luxembourg for a quantitative and qualitative assessment of its power market Power The rate of production, transfer, or energy use, usually related to electricity. Measured in watts and often expressed in kilowatts (kw) or Megawatts (MW). It is also known as "real" or "active" power Installed Capacity Installed capacity refers to the generator s nameplate capacity as stated by the manufacturer or the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. Installed capacity is given in Megawatts (MW) on a nameplate physically displayed on the generator Active Installed Capacity Active installed capacity refers to that component of electric power that actually performs work. It is given in Kilowatts (kw) or Megawatts (MW) Electricity Generation The production of electric energy, achieved through the transformation of other forms of energy. Also refers to the amount of electric energy produced, expressed in Gigawatt-hours (GWh) Electricity Consumption Consumption of electricity calculated as generation, plus imports, minus exports, minus transmission and distribution losses and measured in Gigawatt-hours (GWh) Thermal Power Plant A plant in which turbine generators are driven by burning fossil fuels Hydropower Plant A plant in which turbine generators are driven by falling water Nuclear Power The electricity generated by the use of the thermal energy released from the fission of nuclear fuel in a reactor Renewable Energy Resources Naturally replenishing energy resources limited in the amount of energy that is available per unit of time. For example, biomass, geothermal, solar, wind can all be termed as renewable resources. Page 48

15 9.2 Abbreviations Table 19: Abbreviations Business Propensity Indicator Circuit Kilometers Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Compound Annual Growth Rate Electricity Regional Initiative European Regulators Group for Electricity and Gas European Union Feed-In Tariffs Gigawatt Hour Gross Domestic Product Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Institut Luxembourgeois de Regulation Megawatt Over The Counter Pumped Storage Plant Regional Energy Markets Societe Electrique de l'our Transmission and Distribution Transmission System Operator Source: GlobalData BPI Ckm CCGT CAGR ERI ERGEG EU FITs GWh GDP HHI ILR MW OTC PSP REM SEO SA T&D TSO 9.3 Bibliography ABB (2012). Luxembourg: Energy efficiency report. The ABB Group. Available from: $file/luxembourg%20energy%20efficiency%20report.pdf CIA (2012). The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency. Available from: [Accessed on November 9, 2012] Creos (2011). Creos Rapport Annuel Creos Luxembourg SA. Available from: port_annuel_2011.pdf Creos (2012). Facts and Figures Creos Luxembourg SA. Available from: acts_figures.pdf ENTSO-E (2011). Detailed Electricity Exchange (in GWh) [database]. European Network of Transmission System Operators. Available from: [Accessed November 9, 2012] EREC (2008). Renewable Energy Policy Review: Luxembourg. European Renewable Energy Council. Available from: _Review_09_Final.pdf IEA (2008). Luxembourg, 2008 Review. International Energy Agency. Available from: Page 49

16 ILR (2010). National Report - English summary 2010, Luxembourg, August Institut Luxembourgeois de Regulation. Available from: %20Reporting%202011/NR_En/C11_NR_Luxembourg-EN_Summary.pdf IMF (2011). Luxembourg - Gross domestic product, current prices. International Monetary Fund. Available from ey=2017&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=137&s=ngdpd&grp=0&a=[accessed on November 25, 2012] World Bank (2012). Doing Business-Economy Rankings. The World Bank. Available from [Accessed on September 25, 2012] WGI (2012). The Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2012 Update. The World Bank Group. Available from: [Accessed on: October 17, 2012] 9.4 GlobalData s Methodology GlobalData s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with backgrounds in marketing, market research and consulting in the power industry, and advanced statistical expertise. GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society ( and the Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals ( The following research methodology is followed for all country outlook reports Coverage This report provides detailed information on the power market in Luxembourg. It examines the country s power market structure and provides historical and forecast figures relating to generation, capacity and consumption up to The report provides insights on the market s regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape and leading active and upcoming power projects. The report also provides Business Propensity Indicator (BPI), which benchmarks the country s power sector against other countries in the region by analyzing the power sector of the country on six broad parameters: supply security, regulatory scenario, infrastructure, macroeconomics, competition and future potential. Each parameter has a weight assigned, and a weighted average score is calculated to obtain the country s ranking in the region Secondary research and analysis The capacity, generation and consumption data is collected and validated using a number of secondary resources including but not limited to: Government agencies, ministerial websites, industry associations, the World Bank, statistical databases Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports and investor presentations Industry trade journals, market reports and other literature Globaldata s proprietary databases such as the Capacity and Generation Database, Power Plant Database and Transmission and Distribution Database. Further to this, the following secondary information is collected and analyzed to project the country s power market scenario through to 2030, analyzing factors such as the following: The country s macroeconomic scenario Government regulations, policies and targets Government and private sector investments Contract and deal announcements Utility expansion plans The sector s historic track record Page 50

17 Other qualitative insights built through secondary research and analysis of company websites, annual reports, investor presentations, industry and trade journals, and data from industry associations Primary Research and Analysis Secondary research is further complemented through primary interviews with industry participants to verify and fine-tune the market numbers obtained through secondary research and get first-hand information on industry trends. The participants are drawn from a diverse set of backgrounds, including equipment manufacturers, industry associations, government bodies, utilities, distributors, and academia. The participants include, but are not limited to, C-level executives, industry consultants, academic experts, business development and sales managers, purchasing managers, plant managers, government officials, and industry spokespeople. 9.6 Disclaimer All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and should not to be reproduced without prior permission. Page 51