A limnologist s approach to numerical lake modeling: A case study at Lake Wister, OK
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1 A limnologist s approach to numerical lake modeling: A case study at Lake Wister, OK J. Thad Scott, Associate Professor of Biology, Baylor Thad_Scott@baylor.edu
2 Lake models are a tool to perform the science of limnology (not vice-versa) Computer scientist engineer limnologist physicist
3 Lake Wister State of Oklahoma 303d List of Impaired Waterbodies: Chlorophyll-a Dissolved Oxygen Total Phosphorus Turbidity 2013 Contracted with Poteau Valley Improvement Authority: 1. Sediment analysis 2. Water quality model a) Modeling Plan b) Model development and simulations
4 Modeling Platforms: Hydrodynamics Estuary, Lake and Coastal Ocean Model (ELCOM) (3D) Ecology Computational Aquatic Ecosystem Dynamics Model (CAEDYM)
5 ELCOM-CAEDYM Simulation Capacity Light (NIR, PAR, UVA, UVB) Suspended sediment (SS ) Dissolved oxygen (DO) Organic nutrients (POM, DOM) Inorganic nutrients (NH 4, NO 3, PO 4, SiO 2, DIC) Heterotrophic bacteria (BAC) Phytoplankton (Chl-a/C, Internal N/P, toxins) Higher biology (zooplankton, fish, eggs & larvae) Benthic biology (macroalgae, bivalves, macroinvertebrates) Pathogens & indicator organisms (crypto, coliforms, phages) Geochemistry (ph, ions, metals) Sediment diagenesis
6 Model Inputs: Inflow/outflow rates (USGS and USACE) Inflow concentrations for suspended sediment, TP, TN, etc (USGS) Sediment P (Haggard, Scott, and Patterson 2012) Meteorological data (Oklahoma Mesonet) Modeling Periods: 2011, 2013, 2015 calibration years 2012, 2014 validation years Calibration data: Daily lake elevation (USACE) Monthly lake monitoring (PVIA)
7 A limnologist s list of non-negotiable accuracy requirements for eutrophication model: Hydrologic mass balance Seasonal thermal regime Seasonal dissolved oxygen concentrations Seasonal nitrate trends (as indicator of biological activity) Phytoplankton biomass (as chlorophyll-a AND accessory pigments)
8 Hydrologic mass balance: 2013 Temp/Surface Area
9 A limnologist s list of non-negotiable accuracy requirements for eutrophication model: Hydrologic mass balance Seasonal thermal regime Seasonal dissolved oxygen concentrations Seasonal nitrate trends (as indicator of biological activity) Phytoplankton biomass (as chlorophyll-a AND accessory pigments)
10 ELCOM-CAEDYM Sensitive to Inflow Temperature 5 years USGS Monitoring Data
11 Modeling weak thermal stratification
12 Thermal stratification influences D.O.
13 ELCOM-CAEDYM Sensitive to Inflow Temperature 5 years USGS Monitoring Data Big Creek near Mt. Judea, AR
14 ELCOM-CAEDYM Sensitive to Inflow Temperature 5 years USGS Monitoring Data Big Creek near Mt. Judea, AR
15 ELCOM-CAEDYM Sensitive to Inflow Temperature 5 years USGS Monitoring Data ~ 1200 acre-feet Big Creek near Mt. Judea, AR
16 Modeling weak thermal stratification
17 Thermal stratification influences D.O.
18 A limnologist s list of non-negotiable accuracy requirements for eutrophication model: Hydrologic mass balance Seasonal thermal regime Seasonal dissolved oxygen concentrations Seasonal nitrate trends (as indicator of biological activity) Phytoplankton biomass (as chlorophyll-a AND accessory pigments)
19 Seasonal nitrate dynamics in warm-temperate lakes and reservoirs Winter/spring maxima Summer minima Beaver Lake, AR Data courtesy Beaver Water District Arkansas; Thompson and Scott 2013 Texas; Scott et al Arkansas; Grantz et al. 2012
20 A limnologist s list of non-negotiable accuracy requirements for eutrophication model: Hydrologic mass balance Seasonal thermal regime Seasonal dissolved oxygen concentrations Seasonal nitrate trends (as indicator of biological activity) Phytoplankton biomass (as chlorophyll-a AND accessory pigments)
21 Calibrate phytoplankton biomass to pigmentspecific data Tamm et al. 2015
22 Tamm et al. 2015
23 A limnologist s list of non-negotiable accuracy requirements for eutrophication model: Hydrologic mass balance Seasonal thermal regime Seasonal dissolved oxygen concentrations Seasonal nitrate trends (as indicator of biological activity) Phytoplankton biomass (as chlorophyll-a AND accessory pigments) MONITOR MONITOR MONITOR MONITOR
24 Why model at all? To simulate conditions to inform management
25 Lake models are a tool to perform the science of limnology (not vice-versa) Computer scientist engineer limnologist physicist
26 Funding provided by Poteau Valley Improvement Authority Questions? J. Thad
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