Dominica Climate Change and Health Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment

Transcription

1 Dominica Climate Change and Health Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment Sylvester St.ville Senior Environmental Health Officer National Focal Point Climate and Health

2 GOVERNMENT OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF DOMINICA ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION IN DOMINICA 2016

3 Outline Background to Assessment Methodology Assessment constraints Preliminary Findings Next steps

4 Background Concept of V& A discussed with Sally Edwards PAHO Health Canada Brought into discussion in Mexico in 2013 Assessment lead by the Min of Health Employed services of a consultant Recommendations out of GFCS National Stake holder consultation Key advisors Adrian Trotman (CIMH) Joy Guillimot (WMO) Peter Berry, (Health Canada)

5 Background PAHO WHO 51st DIRECTING COUNCIL 63rd SESSION OF THE REGIONAL COMMITTEE STRATEGY AND PLAN OF ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE Strategic Area 1: Evidence: Strengthening the generation and dissemination of knowledge regarding health risks associated with climate change and about the appropriate public health response to this phenomenon.

6 Policy direction Dominica s Low Carbon Climate Resilient Strategy The real effects of climate change on human health in Dominica will likely be dependent on the vulnerabilities resulting from economic, environmental, social, and health related impacts that will determine the populaces ability to ability to react and adapt.

7 Assessment s Priorities Health Areas Vector-Borne Diseases Food Safety Food Security Waterborne Diseases

8 Specific objectives To determine the association between climate variability and change and three priority areas To generate evidence of the risk presented by climate variability on health and develop adaptation plans to reduce the impact. To establish baseline data and identify priorities in program planning to reduce the transmission of diseases through the various pathways. To inform the development of a climate change strategy for health To identify information and data gaps and inform future research

9 Methodology Assessment informed by: WHO guidelines for V & A (2012) Literature review (Desk Review Report) Other V&A Assessments Expert consensus (Advisory Group) Site Visits Stakeholder consultations Focus group discussion interviews

10 Assessment Steps Step 1- Frame and Scope the Assessment Activity timelines Plan stakeholder engagement Stocktaking of available data on climate and climate-sensitive diseases Step 2- Conducting Assessment Identify vulnerable groups, sectors and regions Current adaptive capacity Stakeholder engagement Step 3- Understanding Future Impacts on Health Climate projections for Dominica Health modeling for priority health risks Step 4- Develop Adaptation Plan Public health policy options Resources for implementation of adaptations

11 Data Collection Mixed-methods approach used: quantitative and qualitative elements Expert interviews and consultations Access to available data bases; Health Agriculture, tourism, national Statistics Active data collection

12 Data Collection Data Category Required Data Data Sources Health Historical health data for vector, water and food- borne diseases (disease rates and pathogen density) Health utilization data (number of visits, diagnosis) Household sanitation, water quality and storage Health Information Unit: climate-sensitive disease surveillance data Health Facilities Ministry of Finance: 2011 National Population and Housing Census Climate Historical climate data for Dominica (T, precipitation, extreme events) Downscaled climate projections for Dominica Dominica Meteorological Service Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology (CIMH) Adaptation Current adaptive capacity Implemented interventions Available resources Stakeholder workshops and consultations

13 Assessment Challenges Gaps identified in existing data sets Stakeholder overuse Travel for consultant Tropical storm Erica Low response rate for adaptive capacity Time constraints Other responsibilities Capacity (modeling)

14 Assessment strengths Disease surveillance data Weather data Expert advisory group consisting of authors of WHO (2013) Methodology for V &A local and Regional advisors Adequate funding for Assessment

15 Preliminary Findings GI <5 (Source HIU) Weekly Trend of Acute Gastroenteritis (AGE) With Outbreak Years, Dominica Norovirus GII 200 No. of cases Norovirus GII Rota virus Year-week

16 Models showing GI and dry and rainfall effects

17 Time series comparing GI cases, mean rainfall temp,

18 Modeling for climate factors for GI<5 An association of gastroenteritis in children under 5 years old with average weekly rainfall was found to be non-linear and varies over the short term (0-6 weeks). Extreme dry conditions are associated with a significant short-term increase in gastroenteritis risk (lag 0-2 weeks). (3771 cases of gastro over a twelve year period) Study did not take into account pathogen and other confounding factors.

19 Dengue Fever 95% of all cases found to occur between July and December Association between Dengue and rainfall Assessment analyzed cases from

20 Seasonality of Dengue fever Monthly Rainfall Reported Dengue Cases Monthly Temperature Reported Cases/Rainfall (mm) Temperature (deg. C) Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan

21 Next Steps Development of a methodology for Caribbean states using Dominica case study as an example Prioritizing climate and Health as a development issue in the Caribbean Development of an adaptation plan for implementation Early warning system for vector, food and water borne diseases

22 It is well-established that the countries of the Caribbean are among the most vulnerable to global climate change (IPCC, 1995, 1997, 2001, 2007). While the severity of the impacts will vary from country to country, there is a suite of priority concerns directly linked to climate change that is virtually ubiquitous across the region (Climate Investment Fund 2009) Climate Change is an inconvenient truth for health!

23 Thank You