MANE-VU Technical Support Committee Update. OTC/MANE-VU Fall Meeting: April 10, 2018 Washington, DC
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1 MANE-VU Technical Support Committee Update OTC/MANE-VU Fall Meeting: April 10, 2018 Washington, DC
2 Overview 1. Action Plan & Schedule Updates 2. Monitoring Data 3. EI Trends Report 4. Consultation/MANE-VU Ask 5. Modeling 2
3 Regional Haze SIP 2 nd Planning Period - Schedule IMPROVE Data Analysis Decisions on Methods Complete 1 st and 2 nd Planning Period Calculations, QA, and TSD Spring 2018 Inventory Development & Analysis 2011/2028 Alpha 2 & TSD Complete Emissions Trends Analysis Spring 2018 Modeling 2011 Base Case Modeling Complete 2028 Base Case Modeling May Control Case Modeling June 2018 Document Modeling Platform and Results Complete (Except Control Case) Four-Factor Analysis/Contribution Assessment Qc/d Complete CALPUFF Assessment Complete Back Trajectory & IMPROVE Data Analysis Complete 4-Factor Data Collection Complete HEDD Analysis Complete Winter EGU NOX Control Complete Synthesize Assessments Complete Updating RPGs Draft RPGs and Document Summer 2018 Consultation Establish Consultation Process Intra-RPO Consultation Inter-RPO Consultation SIP Submission SIP Submission Rule Adoption 3 Complete Complete (Except Documentation) Complete (Except Documentation) Summer
4 Why Target July 2018 SIP Submittal? In 2016 EPA finalized updated Regional Haze regulations SIP deadline was extended to 2021 Why not wait? OTC developed a 2011-based SIP quality modeling platform for states in nonattainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS MANE-VU Air Directors agreed that 2011 should also be used for regional haze modeling rather than develop an entirely new modeling platform There is great uncertainty based on EPA s statements as to whether 2011 will be an acceptable base year for SIPs submitted in 2021 State resources and Federal funding issues needed to be considered 50-70% of the work completed was done using Federal money rolled over from first planning period EPA will not be providing additional funding for work States contribute to MANE-VU, but not at a level to redo all of the completed work EPA s not yet finalized draft guidance called for far more extensive analyses than we think is necessary 4
5 Visibility Report Maine developed reports based on original by NESCAUM examining Visibility Data RHR III Metric Required for analyses for 2 nd planning period 1 st Planning Period Metric For later 5-year lookback submissions Status/Next Steps Under 21 Day EPA/FLM Review Final IMPROVE RHR III data released last week one last update needed Expected Finalization by End of April 5
6 1 st RH SIP Planning Period Metrics Visibility is Improving and Current Levels are Below 2018 RPGs Acadia, ME Brigantine, NJ Great Gulf, NH Moosehorn, ME Lye Brook, VT 6 Progress at Monitored Class I States in MANE-VU using IMPROVE RHII Algorithm
7 2 nd RH SIP Planning Period Metrics Visibility is Improving and Current Levels are Below 2028 URP Acadia, ME Brigantine, NJ Great Gulf, NH Moosehorn, ME Lye Brook, VT 7 Progress at Monitored Class I States in MANE-VU using IMPROVE RH III Algorithm
8 Winter Nitrates Contribution Increasing 8
9 EI Trends Report Template All states required to: Report on changes in emissions from 2008 to most recently available year 2014 for NEI 2017 for CAMD data Acknowledge the impact of major regulations on inventory changes States are not required to adjust inventories so that they use the same methodologies, just need to document changes in methodologies State staff have developed a template: New Hampshire and Connecticut analyzed the emissions inventory New Jersey compiled the list of regulations Will show data for SO 2 and NO X, but PM 2.5, PM 10, and VOCs are also available Status/Next Steps Under 21 Day EPA/FLM Review Expected Finalization by End of April 9
10 SO2 (Thousands Tons) Annual SO 2 Emissions from NEI in the MANE-VU States, ,400 1, , CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT 10
11 SO2 (Thousands Tons) Annual SO 2 Emissions from NEI in the Contributing States, ,400 1, , AL FL IL IN KY LA MI MO OH TN TX VA WV
12 NOx (Thousand Tons) Annual NO X Emissions from NEI in the MANE-VU States, ,000 1, ,600 1,400 1,200 1, CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT 12
13 NOx (Thousand Tons) Annual NO X Emissions from NEI in the Contributing States, ,000 1, ,600 1,400 1,200 1, AL FL IL IN KY LA MI MO OH TN TX VA WV
14 MANE-VU Ask Signed August 25, 2017 MANE-VU States: Ensure effective use of installed controls on EGUs (>=25 MW) yearround 4-factor analysis for most important sources (> 3Mm -1 extinction) Complete 2007 low sulfur fuel oil rule Update permits and/or rules to reflect already achieved rates for SO 2, NO X, and PM 2.5 Strive to meet particular NO X emissions standards or perform 4- factor analysis on HEDD units Increase energy efficiency and implement CHP or other DG Upwind States: Ensure effective use of installed controls on EGUs (>=25 MW) yearround 4-factor analysis for most important sources (> 3Mm -1 extinction) Complete 2007 low sulfur fuel oil rule Update permits and/or rules to reflect already achieved rates for SO 2, NO X, and PM 2.5 Increase energy efficiency and implement CHP or other DG FLMs/EPA: FLMs consult with MANE-VU Class I States when scheduling prescribed burns EPA develop measures that will further reduce emissions from heavyduty onroad vehicles EPA ensure that Class I Area state Asks are addressed in contributing state SIPs prior to approval Including the Ask in photochemical modeling underway 14
15 MANE-VU Inter-RPO Consultation 15 Introduction 10/20/17 Technical Discussion 12/01/217 MANE-VU Analysis Review 12/18/17 Upwind State Feedback 1/12/18 Commissioners 3/23/18 Between MANE-VU and contributing states, as identified using weighted contribution analysis Five Webinars between 10/20/17 and 3/23/18 Consultation Report Draft expected by April TSC Call Report Outline Introduction Regional consultation and the MANE-VU Ask Requirements and how they were met Ask development Summarize how consensus was reached within MANE-VU Summarize development of upwind states and federal agency Ask Overview of comments from upwind states with MANE-VU responses. Appendices Complete Schedule Full meeting notes/minutes Full comments and responses section
16 Haze Modeling: Two Cases Gamma Base Case ERTAC v Alpha 2: Small EGUs EPA 2028 el : Remaining Sectors HEDD Unit Temporalization Control Case ERTAC Control Case Asks 1, 2, 3, 5 EMF for Point Control Case Asks 2, 3, 5 MOVES Percentage Reduction EPA Ask 16
17 Thousands Tons Changes in Annual ERTAC SO 2 Emissions When Implementing the MV Ask 160 Base... + LSFO... + Ask CT DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV MANE-VU LADCO SESARM 17
18 Thousands Tons Changes in Annual ERTAC NO X Emissions When Implementing the MV Ask 70 Base Non-OS Rate... + HEDD... + Ask CT DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV MANE-VU LADCO SESARM 18
19 In Retrospective: Low Sulfur Fuel Rule (as of 9/2016) Low Sulfur Distillate Rules/Statutes (ppm) CT DC DE MA MD ME NJ NH NY PA RI VT / / / /18 7/ /18 7/16 Philly: 7/ / /14 Low Sulfur Residual Rules/Statutes (percentage) /17 7/14 (EGUs), 7/18 7/ (depends on county) 7/18 (#5/#6) 7/16 7/16 (#5/#6) date? 7/18 (#5/#6) / (depends on county) 7/16 NYC - 0.3% Nassau / Westchester -0.37% /18 (#4) 7/16 (#4) 7/18 (#4) Ban 2016 (#5/#6) NYC #6 Ban 7/15 #4 0.15% 10/12 Ban
20 CT DC* DE MA MD* ME NH* NJ* NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV AR IA KS LA MO NE OK TX Thousands Tons Changes in Annual EMF Point SO 2 Emissions When Implementing the MV Ask 90 Base + Ask2 + HEDD + LSFO MANE-VU LADCO SESARM CENSARA 20 * Note: Several States in MANE-VU have implement some or all of the LSFO rule, but do not include it in their FY projections
21 CT DC* DE MA MD* ME NH* NJ* NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV AR IA KS LA MO NE OK TX Thousands Tons Changes in Annual EMF Point NO X Emissions When Implementing the MV Ask Base + Ask2 + HEDD Control MANE-VU LADCO SESARM CENSARA * Note: Several States in MANE-VU have implement some or all of the LSFO rule, but do not include it in their FY projections
22 CT DC* DE MA MD* ME NH* NJ* NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV AR IA KS LA MO NE OK TX Thousands Tons Changes in Annual EMF NonPoint SO 2 Emissions When Implementing the MV Ask 10 9 Base + LSFO MANE-VU LADCO SESARM CENSARA * Note: Several States in MANE-VU have implement some or all of the LSFO rule, but do not include it in their FY projections
23 CT DC* DE MA MD* ME NH* NJ* NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV AR IA KS LA MO NE OK TX Thousands Tons Changes in Annual EMF NonPoint NO X Emissions When Implementing the MV Ask Base + LSFO MANE-VU LADCO SESARM CENSARA 23 * Note: Several States in MANE-VU have implement some or all of the LSFO rule, but do not include it in their FY projections
24 In Summary Nearing completion of 2 nd Planning Period Regional Haze SIP work Have documented visibility and inventory trends and near finalization The ask is final for the 2 nd Planning Period Both Intra- and Inter-RPO consultation is complete, except documentation Inventory development for base case and control case modeling is nearly complete 24
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