Emission scenarios in India

Transcription

1 Emission scenarios in India TF HTAP / TFIAM Workshop on Global Emissions Scenarios to 2050 Sumit Sharma TERI 12th Feb 2015

2 Key questions How the CLE scenario compares to your expectations for the region/sector What are the key uncertainties in the future projections What fraction of the MFR reductions you think is practical and what are the key obstacles to implementation of additional controls What information is available about the costs of available control options

3 Growth of India

4 Growing and sprawling cities

5 RSPM concentrations in Indian cities (2012) Concentration (µg/m3) More than 80% cities violate the standards of RSPM Source: CPCB, NAMP data

6 NOx concentrations (2012) Sustainable Development 6Outreach

7 Work at TERI Air quality monitoring : Source apportionment studies Emission inventorisation : IIASA, CPCB, UCSD (ICAMP), DFID Air quality simulation : TCRDL, IIT-D, DFID Impacts : Human health, agriculture

8 Study domain- National to local scales 12x12 km² 4x4 km²

9 Energy, emission and air quality scenarios Year :

10 Broad approach Metrological Modelling (WRF) Energy Modelling (MARKAL/TIME S) Emission Modelling (GAINS and others) Air Quality Modelling (CMAQ) Impacts

11 Activities Baseline: 2010 data for different sectors Latest TERI-MARKAL modelling projections till 2050 Emission inventory (PM, SO2, NOx, NMVOC, CO) for Inventories by size fractions : PM10/PM2.5/BC/OC Spatial allocation 36x36 km² Decentralized Electricity Solutions District level : Domestic, transport, SS industries Point locations : power plants, steel, cement, refineries, automobile, coal and iron ore mines, oil & gas exploration sites Temporal allocation Diurnal/Seasonal variations Vertical allocation

12 ESO IEA scenarios IEA 2012 GDP CAGR 7.7% % % ESO- TERI GR- 8% till %

13 Baseline energy scenarios Domestic (biomass) and power sector (coal) are the major consumers. Diesel will have major share in future, Biomass will reduce

14 Sectoral energy consumption

15 SO2 emissions (kt/yr) Lower GR? More Controls? No controls assumed in TERI scenario

16 NOx emissions (kt/yr) High emitters? Lower GR in TPT sector? Controls?

17 PM2.5 emissions (kt) Higher residential emissions Lower controls in LSI We assumed 100% penetration of with ESP2 controls in cement plants by 2030 About 60-65% FCBTK

18 BC emissions (kt) Higher residential emissions Very low brick emissions? Growth rates of brick sector? Other materials? Higher controls in BAU? No control brick go down from 30% in 2010 to 5% in 2050

19 NMVOC emissions 2010 Sharma et al,

20 Spatial allocation of emissions

21 WRF-CMAQ Simulations- PM2.5 Secondary particulates increase PM2.5 concentrations despite limited increase in primary PM emissions

22 Simulations-O3

23 Sensitivity of Ozone in India

24 Validation- PM

25 Validation- O3 Chatani et al, 2014

26 Uncertainties in emissions

27 Transport sector

28 Driving cycle issue

29 Effect of real world driving conditions/ Congestion

30 Modelled real world driving based emission factors observed in the 6 Indian cities Vehicle type ARAI, 2011, emission factors (g/km) IVE results (g/km) Differences (ratio of IVE results with ARAI emission factors) PM Motor Bike BS-III Car BS-III Bus BS-III NOx Motor Bike BS-III Car BS-III Bus BS-III

31 Overloading emissions CRRI: Vehicle emissions go up from 3.17 g/km of nitrogen oxide to g/km if the vehicle is overloaded by 30 per cent. PM increases from g/km at standard loading to g/km at 30 per cent overloading. A total of 60 to 70 per cent of all goods carriers operating in Delhi are overloaded Vehicles are generally tested unloaded

32 Dilemma on future auto fuel policy Auto Fuel Vision Committee was set up in 2013 to recommend the future roadmap on advancement of fuel quality and vehicular emission standards upto The committee has recommended the introduction of BS-IV and BS-V norms across the country by 2017 and 2020, respectively. BS-VI emission norms are recommended to be introduced by Matter in court

33 Inuse vehicle management issues Only 20-25% vehicle go for PUC testing in Delhi Ineffective PUC controls Idle mode tests No check on emission norms on overall useful life of a vehicle High emitters could be their!! Need remote sensing experiments

34 Industrial emissions Industrial emissions = Fuel x EF(NOC)x Efficiency of APCE Status of APCE installations? Status of APCE efficiency? Emission factors for Indian small scale industries

35 Cost benefit analysis Transport sector interventions

36 Effect of advancement of vehicular emission norms Scenario Description BAU Based on the current plans and policies of the government without any further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 cities ALT-I Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 ALT-II Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020 Earth Science ALT-III and Climate Change Introduction of BS-IV Sustainable all across Habitats the country by 2015 and BS-V in 2020 Decentralized ALT-IV Electricity Solutions Introduction of BS-IV Water all across Resources the country by 2015 and BS-VI in 2020

37 Reduction in PM2.5 conc. (ALT-IV-2030) 37

38 Avoided mortalities 38

39 Health benefits (PM) outweigh the costs very soon 39

40 Costs and benefits

41 MFR reductions (PM2.5) Half of this is possible in LMSI SSI??? Could be more!! Does not look probable

42 MFR reductions (Nox) Needs standards!! Could be earlier!!

43 Obstacles in MFR implementation Low priority issues- low awareness Inertia from industry Absence of decision support systems Resource allocations Dependencies e.g. DPFs on I&M

44 Key opportunities for control NOx and SO2 standards for power plants and industries Auto fuel policy 2024 or 2020? Continuous source monitoring at industries Fiscal incentives for APCE in SSI Improved cook-stoves

45 THANKS