Effects of air pollution mitigation strategies on short term climate forcing

Transcription

1 Z. Klimont, M. Amann, C. Heyes, W. Schöpp, K. Kupiainen, J. Cofala, P. Rafaj, I. Bertok, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Effects of air pollution mitigation strategies on short term climate forcing Working progress Workshop on: Synergies and Trade-offs between Climate and Air Pollution Policies: Optimizing Opportunities and Preventing Risks Utrecht, June 18, 21

2 Outline Black carbon and other SLCF in a multi-pollutant/multi-effect emission control framework Two examples of ongoing analysis From Baseline towards RF mitigation From Baseline towards AQ mitigation Presented intermediate results draw on the ongoing work under UNEP BC Assessment, UNECE CLRTAP Gothenburg Protocol Revision (Ad-Hoc Black Carbon Expert Group), and Arctic Council TF on SLCF Work on further development of GAINS supported by Dutch government

3 A two-baskets approach for climate impacts NH3 V SO2 NOx PPM BC/ CO2 CH4 N2O F-gases Biodiversity Vegetation damage Health damage Near-term climate impacts Long-term climate impacts

4 Potential approaches for GAINS optimization for the CLRTAP Gothenburg protocol Starting from an energy scenario that achieves given (long-term) climate objectives (expressed through GWP): Option 1: Optimize for targets on health and ecosystems (as before), near-term forcing and carbon deposition to the Arctic. Option 2: Optimize for targets on health and ecosystems (as before), with maximum co-benefits on short-term forcing.

5 Important features Such an approach would as a side effect, increase robustness of health impact strategies (preferential treatment of BC vs other PM2.5 components), consider co-controls between short-lived forcers, between short- and long-lived substances.

6 Approach Example (GAINS) From Baseline scenario towards RF mitigation 1. Develop emission projections for all substances 2. Determine future RF by sector and gas 3. Rank measures by net RF of their BC/ reduction 4. Choose a set of efficient measures and estimate their mitigation potential

7 Data sources Activity projections of IEA World Energy Outlook 29, Reference case, 45 ppm GHG stabilization scenario, PRIMES 21 for EU-27 GAINS emission factors and mitigation measures Literature data on GWP2 and GWP1 Analysis performed for 15 world regions, here presented mostly for Global regions (OECD/BRICS/Other countries) Work in progress!

8 Emission trends GAINS calculation for IEA World Energy Outlook 29 OECD BRICS Others 2% 2% 2% 18% 18% 18% 16% 16% 16% Emissions relative to 25 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% Emissions relative to 25 14% CO2 CH4 12% BC 1% 8% SO2 6% NOx V 4% Emissions relative to 25 14% CO2 CH4 12% BC 1% 8% SO2 6% NOx V 4% CO2 CH4 BC SO2 NOx V 2% 2% 2% % % % Work in progress!

9 BC inventories and trends to 23 GAINS calculation for IEA World Energy Outlook 29 OECD BRICS Others Other Other Other Agriculture 1.5 Off-road Road transport 1. Domestic Agriculture 1.5 Off-road Road transport 1. Domestic Agriculture Off-road Road transport Domestic Industry Industry Industry.5 Power.5 plants Power.5 plants Power plants Work in progress!

10 BC inventories and trends to 23 GAINS calculation for IEA World Energy Outlook 29 EU27 BeNeLux-Germany Other 6 Other 3 Agriculture 5 Agriculture kt 25 2 Off-road Road transport Domestic kt 4 3 Off-road Road transport Domestic 15 1 Industry Power plants 2 Industry Power plants Work in progress!

11 Approach Example (GAINS) From Baseline scenario towards RF mitigation Steps: 1. Develop emission projections for all substances 2. Determine future RF by sector and gas/aerosol 3. Rank measures by net RF of their BC/ reduction 4. Choose a set of efficient measures and estimate their mitigation potential

12 GWPs used for screening of mitigation measures 2 yrs 1 yrs Source CO2 1 1 IPCC, AR4 CH IPCC, AR4 N2O IPCC, AR4 SO Fuglestvedt et al., 29 BC 22 (69-47) 68 (21-15) Bond and Sun, Schulz et al., 26 V IPCC, AR4 CO IPCC, AR4

13 GWP2 from BC+ by sector IEA WEO 29- Reference OECD BRICS Others Sum 25 Other 2 Agriculture Off-road 15 Road transport Sum 25 Other 2 Agriculture Off-road 15 Road transport Sum Other Agriculture Off-road Road transport 1 Domestic 1 Industry Domestic 1 Industry Domestic Industry 5 5 Power plants 5 Power plants Power plants Work in progress!

14 CO 2 eq emissions by species , IEA WEO29-Reference OECD BRICS Others yrs GWP Sum V NOx SO2 BC Sum V NOx SO2 BC Sum V NOx SO2 BC CH4 CO2 CH4 CO2 CH4 CO yrs GWP 1 5 Sum V NOx SO2 BC CH4 CO2 1 5 Sum V NOx SO2 BC CH4 CO2 1 5 Sum V NOx SO2 BC CH4 CO Work in progress!

15 CO 2 eq emissions by species , IEA WEO29-Reference EU-27 BeNeLux-Germany Sum V 1 Sum V Mt CO2eq 1 NOx SO2 Mt CO2eq 5 NOx SO BC CH4 CO2-5 BC CH4 CO Work in progress!

16 Approach Example (GAINS) From Baseline scenario towards RF mitigation Steps: 1. Develop emission projections for all substances 2. Determine future RF by sector and gas 3. Rank measures by net RF of their BC/ reduction 4. Choose a set of efficient measures and estimate their mitigation potential

17 Emission control measures considered (Measures in italic are only assumed for OECD countries) Approx. 23 control measures considered for each country/region, incl.: Households: Improved biomass and coal stoves, switch to pellets, etc. Replacement of biomass cooking stoves Industry and power generation: Cyclones, ESP, fabric filters, etc. Non-recovery coke ovens with end-of-pipe Brick kilns: VSBK technology, tunnel kilns Road transport: Particle traps (DPF) for heavy and light duty vehicles Elimination of super-emitters Off-road: Particle traps (DPF) Elimination of super-emitters Open burning: Ban of open burning of agricultural residues Ban of open burning of garbage

18 Net GWP2 of BC mitigation Diesel heavy duty vehicles (Example for India 23) 4 35 Emissions GWP2 Emissions [kt or Mt CO2eq2] BC Total CO2eq Assumed GWP2: BC=22 =-24-5 Current Euro-III Euro-VI Current Euro-III Euro-VI Emissions GWP(2 yrs) Work in progress!

19 Net GWP2 of BC mitigation Biomass (ag. residue, dung, wood) (Example - cooking stoves in India 23) Emissions GWP2 Emissions [kt or Mt CO2eq2] BC Total CO2eq Assumed GWP2: BC=22 =-24-4 Current stoves Improved stoves New stoves Current stoves Improved stoves New stoves Emissions Work in progress! GWP(2 yrs)

20 Approach Example (GAINS) From Baseline scenario towards RF mitigation Steps: 1. Develop emission projections for all substances 2. Determine future RF by sector and gas 3. Rank measures by net RF of their BC/ reduction 4. Choose a set of efficient measures and estimate their mitigation potential

21 Global mitigation potential for BC+ in 23 Net impact on GWP2 for IEA WEO29-Reference (2 yrs) Elimination of highemitting vehicles Replacement of biomass for cooking Ban of burning of agricult. waste DPF for road vehicles DPF for off-road machinery Brick kilns Coke plants Filters in industry Assumptions: Applicability of technical measures considered, e.g.: No pellets for households in developing countries Limited penetration of tunnel kilns in India Full turn-over of capital stock by 23 Feasibility of non-technical measures to be determined 2 1 Baseline 23 Technical measures Nontechnical Remaining emissions Filters for coal stoves Pellets instead of wood stoves Other measures Remaining emissions Impacts in 23: -35% from technical measures -4% from non-technical measures Work in progress!

22 Regional mitigation potential for BC+ in 23 Net impact on GWP2 for IEA WEO29- Reference (2 yrs) OECD BRICS Other countries Of global potential: 8%+1% 28%+23% 8%+27% Elimination of highemitting vehicles Replacement of biomass for cooking Ban of burning of agricult. waste DPF for road vehicles DPF for off-road machinery Brick kilns Coke plants Filters in industry Filters for coal stoves Pellets instead of wood stoves Other measures Remaining emissions Work in progress!

23 BC/ mitigation from a low-carbon scenario GWP2 IEA WEO29 REF vs 45 ppm scenario OECD BRICS Others Baseline ppm Other Agriculture Off-road 2 Road transport Domestic Industry Power 1 plants 3 Other Agriculture Off-road 2 Road transport Domestic Industry 1 Power plants Other Agriculture Off-road Road transport Domestic Industry Power plants Work in progress!

24 Impacts of BC/ measures on total GWP Global emissions, IEA baseline 7 6 GWP2 GWP Total GWP CO2 CH4 BC/ SO2 NOx V With BC measures With BC measures Work in progress!

25 Approach Example (GAINS-Europe) From Baseline scenario towards AQ mitigation Steps: 1. Develop emission projections for all substances NEC Directive 2. Optimize reductions of pollutants contributing to the primary and secondary PM to achieve specified AQ target at least cost 3. A set of efficient AQ measures is derived 4. Determine total RF for the achieved AQ target

26 Impact of CLE, AQ, and MFR policies on RF (GWP2) Example for EU-27 14% RF [Mt CO2 eq.] RF [Mt CO2 eq.] % % CO2 CH4 BC Emissions relative to 8% 6% SO2 NOx V CLE TSAP EP 15 1 YOLL [mill yea CLE TSAP EP 15 1 YOLL [mill yea 4% MFR MFR 2% 5 5 % TSAP EP MFR Emission change GWP2 GWP1

27 Impact of CLE, AQ, and MFR policies on RF (GWP2) Examples for Europe RF [Mt CO2 eq.] RF [Mt CO2 eq.] RF [Mt CO2 eq.] CLE TSAP EP 4 3 YOLL [mill yea 2 CLE TSAP EP 1.5 YOLL [mill yea CLE TSAP EP MFR 1 8 YOLL [mill yea MFR 2 6 MFR BeNeLux-Germany Bulgaria Poland

28 Some key uncertainties Reduction efficiency for BC/ of improved/new biomass cooking stoves in developing countries BC/ emission factors for brick kilns, coke ovens, flaring are virtually unknown; lab and field efs for stoves widely different Some activity data (e.g., use of non-commercial fuels in domestic combustion, open burning of biomass and waste) Quantification of super-emitting vehicles (present and future) Quantification of radiative forcing of aerosols Feasibility of non-technical measures

29 Open questions and next steps Consideration of regional forcing? Considering various metrics GWP..2, 1 years? GTP? Instantaneous forcing? Could these BC/-emission changes significantly influence near-term climate change? Inclusion of methane measures Full consideration of co-emitted species for abatement measures including, beyond BC/, also CO, NMV, CO2, CH4, SO2, NOx Quantification of source-impacts relationships (between national emissions and regional forcing) Extension of GAINS optimization routine

30 Conclusions Globally, implementation of 1 key measures could lead to a 75% reduction in short-term forcing of BC/ in 23. However, some of these improvements in RF will be compensated by associated reductions in SO 2 emissions (DPF, brick kilns, etc). 5% of this potential emerges in BRICS countries, 33% in other developing countries. 3% of the potential depends on reduction efficiency of improved biomass cook stoves for BC. Phase-out of biomass as alternative? 45% of the mitigation potential could be achieved through technical measures, 55% require non-technical interventions. A health-targeted strategy would not necessarily reduce nearterm forcing, but all BC measures also reduce health impacts (although not as efficiently).