Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector and Role of Research Community

Transcription

1 Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet) 3 rd Annual Meeting Draft Programme of Work Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector and Role of Research Community Retno G Dewi Iwan Hendrawan Bintang Yuwono Rias Parinderati Bogor, November 2014 Centre for Research on Energy Policy INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG

2 OUTLINE 1. Introduction 2. Current Energy Situation in Indonesia 3. Energy and GHG Emission Model Using End-Use 4. Socio Economic Condition and Projection 5. Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector and GHG Emission Reduction 2

3 INTRODUCTION LCD is long term vision (2050) of economic development in a low-carbon way Challenge for achieving LCD is now in a global mainstream. Particular emphasis in short-term (2020) is to address options for achieving GHG reduction target (National Action Plan) up to 26% below the baseline using domestic budget and further up to 41% if there is international support. Activities in achieving this reduction target are supported by PerPres 61/2011 (National Action Plan for GHGs Mitigation Action) and PerPres 71/2011 (GHGs Inventory). Key Findings: Energy sector is 2 nd contributor of national GHGs after AFOLU (agriculture, forestry, and land use). CO2 from energy sector increased, from 369,800 ton (2005) to 392,820 ton (2010). This high CO2 is generated from high share of fossil fuels in primary energy supply mix, in which share of renewable energy is still low, RE (6.1%), oil (44.34%), gas %, coal 24.43%. In this paper, LCD strategy is not to achieve world s target on carbon intensity level; it is more to explore possibilities of the future development in a low-carbon way. The paper presents Low Carbon Development Paths of Energy Sector in Indonesia that is used for identifying development paths of energy sector and cost of development, GHG reduction potential if the development paths Toward to Low Carbon and costs of actions for reducing GHG in 2020 and

4 CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION Significant increased in energy demand over transportation and industrial sector. ToE SECTORAL ENERGY DEMAND ( 90-12) ToE FINAL ENERGY DEMAND ( 90-12) ACM & others Transportation Commercial Household Industry Industrial biomass LPG Electricity Gas Fuel Coal source: Pusdatin ESDM source: Pusdatin ESDM Implicating to increase in demand on energy, noticing that GoI is planning to transform their energy mix in increasing energy security and achieving climate targets. 4

5 GHG PROJECTION In response to climate change issues, GoI in 2010 announced non binding commitment to reduce GHG emissions 26% below the baseline by 2020 with domestic budget and further up to 41% with international support. GHG PROJECTION GHG Emissions level (Baseline) Emission level target Reduction target non-binding commitment (26% or 41%) in 2020 In-line with Low Carbon Development Paths To achieve the target, the government developed mitigation actions plan that is published as National GHG Mitigation Action Plan (RAN GRK). 5

6 END-USE MODELLING Non-linear programming (GAMs based Extended Snap Shot) is used as a tool for developing energy development paths and estimating associated GHGs. Two projection scenarios are developed: envisions development paths of energy sector and the associated GHG emission without considering mitigation efforts Mitigation (CM1&2) development paths to achieve low carbon through: efficiency & conservation; advance technologies; renewables; CCS Base year for projection scenarios is 2005 and target year is 2020 and 2050 Energy demand projection is gathered from ExSS results. Analysis of socio-economic data (driving forces) projects the final energy demand. 6

7 SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROJECTION (Driving Forces) Input Parameters to ExSS Modelling. POPULATION INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT Millions > % 80% 60% Tertiary Industries Cement Iron & Steel Other Industry Construction Chemical Industry Textile Food & Beverage Mining & Quarryng Agriculture 40% % Trillions IDR POPULATION GROWTH 2 Population GDP 15 GDP GROWTH source: BPS 7

8 LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT PATHS This model assess the impacts of different measures in LCS Actions. LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY LCS Actions Clean Energy (Residential and Commercial) Low Carbon Style (Residential and Commercial) Low Carbon Electricity Low carbon energy system in industry Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy Less CO2 Emission Energy Technology Society Behavior in Residential /Commercial Efficient energy technology appliances Renewable energy & Less CO2 Emission Energy Efficient energy technology of power generation Less CO2 Emission Energy Technology (Coal IGCC + CCS) Increasing Efficiency of T & D Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy Efficient energy technology appliances Efficient energy process and processing technology Sustainable transport Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy modal shift (public/mass rapid transport utilization) Energy Efficiency Improvement Reduce trip generation and distance (improve Infrastructure, telecommunication, new urban design, traffic management 8

9 GHG REDUCTION LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT PATHS Baseline scenario: Projection of GHG emission under expected socio-economic development in Indonesia without additional countermeasures to reduce GHG from energy. 12!!11.2!! 10!!10.1!!!9.5!! 8!!7.0!!!6.7!!!6.7!! 6!!5.9!! 4! 2!!1.0!!!1.2!!!1.4!!!1.0!!!2.6!!!1.0!!!2.2!!!2.1!!!2.1!!!1.0!!!3.2!!!3.0!!!2.7!! 0! 2005! 2020! 2050! 2005! 2020! 2050! 2005!! CM1! CM2!! CM1! CM2! 2005!! CM1! CM2!! CM1! CM2! 2020! 2050! 2020! 2050! Popula7on! GDP! Energy!Demand! CO2!Emission! Counter Measure (CM) scenario: Introduction of low-carbon measures which are already available. Assumptions are based on the official target (RAN-GRK, reduce 38 MtCO2 in energy sector). 9

10 ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION ToE SECTORAL ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION ToE FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION 900, , , , , , , , , , CM CM CM CM2 Industry Commercial Residential Freight Transport Passanger Transport Biofuel Electricity Biomassa Gas Oil Coal 10

11 CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION In CM2 there are nuclear and Coal-CCS being introduced. ToE ENERGY DEMAND MIX ToE GHG EMISSION 1,200,000 4, ,000 3, ,000 2, ,000 1, , CM CM CM CM2 Coal Oil Gas Hydropower Solar & Wind Biomassa Geothermal Biofuel Nuclear Other Sectors Other energy indusries Power supply Final demand sectors Significant decrease of power sector GHG Emission are mainly contributed by Nuclear (16%) and Coal CCS (42%). 11

12 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM Business as Usual scenario: setting in shift of energy supply type, from oil (kerosene) to gas by RESINDENTIAL MtCO2eq CM GHG EMISSIONS CM: Efficiency and Conservations program through RAN-GRK reduce the energy consumption of residential sector. In CM there are introduction of advanced technologies in home appliances and fixtures enables lower emission as well as lower energy consumption. Biogas is introduced in CM as well as also shift in technologies, into technologies that use electricity as energy source (e.g. electric stove, electric heater, etc.) ENERGY SUPPLY CM CM CM CM Biogas Electricity Natural Gas Oil (Kerosene) 12

13 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM RESINDENTIAL 13

14 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM MToE DEVICES 100% RESINDENTIAL 80% 60% MToE SERVICE OUTPUT 40% 20% CM CM CM CM CM Refrigerant Other Lighting Hot Water Cooling Cooking GB_B GB_G RC_EL_BAT RC_EL_EXT RF_EL_BAT RF_EL_EXT RH_EL_BAT RH_EL_EXT RH_FC_EL RH_FC_NG RH_FC_OK RH_NG_EXT RH_OK_EXT RK_EL_BAT RK_EL_EXT RK_FC_EL RK_FC_NG RK_FC_OK RK_NG_EXT RK_OK_EXT RL_EL_FLC RL_EL_INC RL_EL_LED RO_EL_BAT RO_EL_EXT 36 MITIGATION COSTS Millions USD 300, , , , CM 2015 CM CM CM CM CM CM1 CM Total Operating Annualized Investment Total Initial Investment 14

15 POWER SECTOR LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM Business as Usual Scenario follows the planned energy mix and technologies share allocation for power sector in Rencana Umum Pengembangan Tenaga Listrik (RUPTL ). POWER MtCO2eq 1,800 CM1 CM2 GHG EMISSIONS CM 1 follows the RAN-GRK plan in increasing the utilization of new and renewables technologies and energies (Hydro, Geothermal, Biomass), in this scenario there are a decrease in electricity demand due to lower activities in other sectors due to efficiency and conservation programs activated. There are changes in share of Coal, Oil, and Gas in the energy mix. 1,440 CM 2 extend the use of Hydro power generation, Biomass, and especially the introduction of Biofuel in power sector. With a specified share of Coal in the energy mix (66%), the rest of energy share are competed, as well as the technology selection. ENERGY SUPPLY 1, CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 CM1 CM Coal Gas Oil Biomass Solar Hydro Geothermal Biofuel 15

16 POWER SECTOR LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM POWER 16

17 POWER SECTOR LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM 100% MToE DEVICES POWER 80% 60% 40% GWh 2,200,000 SERVICE OUTPUT 20% CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 CM1 CM COL_ST_EXT COL_SC GAS_ST_EXT GAS_GT_EXT GAS_CC_EXT GAS_GE_EXT GAS_CC_NEW GAS_CC_NEWx BMS_ST_EXT SOL_EXT RHY_EXT RGE_EXT OIL_ST_EXT OIL_GT_EXT OIL_CC_EXT OIL_DE_EXT GAS_CC_NEWx RK_FC_OK RK_NG_EXT RK_OK_EXT RL_EL_FLC RL_EL_INC RL_EL_LED RO_EL_BAT RO_EL_EXT 1,760,000 MITIGATION COSTS 1,320,000 Millions USD 150, , ,000 75,000 37, , CM1 CM CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 CM1 CM Total Operating Annualized Investment Total Initial Investment

18 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM Business as Usual scenario: In cement industry there are limited introduction of alternative material in the production process. There is development plan of production capacity of iron & steel industry that by 2020 blast furnace process for the first time will be running under several companies. MtCO2eq GHG EMISSIONS Cement () Cement (CM) Iron & Steel () Iron & Steel (CM) Cement IPPU () Cement IPPU (CM) EMS IPPU MToE 25 INDUSTRY CM1 scenario of cement industry, there are extensive use of alternative fuel and material (AFR), such as Biomass for clinker substitute material and Biomass for fuel combustion process (waste, husk, hazardous waste, etc.). The reuse of waste and use of renewables as fuel and materials reduces the GHG emissions. CM1 scenario in iron & steel industry introduces the competition of advanced technologies in the production process. Advanced technologies have significant impact to higher efficiency in energy use and further reduce GHG emissions, noticing that Iron & Steel industry is a energy intensive industry. CEMENT ENERGY SUPPLY MToE 5 IRON & STEEL CM CM CM CM Coal Electricity Alt. Raw Material Biomass Natural Gas 18

19 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM INDUSTRY CEMENT INDUSTRY IRON & STEEL 19

20 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM Millions USD CEMENT Finishing_existing Clinker_existing Grinder_exisitng Millions USD IRON & STEEL Sinter_existing Rotary Kiln_existing Rolling_existing Basic Oxygen Furnace_existing Electric Furnace_existing Direct Reduction_exsiting Coke Oven_existing Blast Furnace_exisiting INDUSTRY SERVICE OUTPUT , MTon (Cement) Cement Steel MTon (Steel) CM CM CM CM ,000 MITIGATION COSTS 108 Millions USD 8,000 CEMENT Millions USD 3,000 IRON & STEEL 6,000 6,000 2, ,000 1,500 3,000 2, CM CM CM CM Total Operating Annualized Investment Total Initial Investment

21 TRANSPORTATION SECTOR LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM Business as Usual scenario projects the growth of output service with no change in share of transportation modes (data: National Statistics, Directorate General of Transportation). TRANSPORTATION MtCO2eq 500 CM2 CM1 GHG EMISSIONS CM1: Efficiency and Conservations program through RAN-GRK reduce the service demand of transportation in passenger km as well as tonnage-freight km. In CM1 there are introduction of advanced technologies in transportation that enables lower emission as well as lower energy consumption. Train in passenger transport has a significance increase in the mode share. 400 CM2 takes the efficiency and conservation further and substantially more effective in reducing emissions and energy consumption. Biofuel is introduced in CM2 scenario. ENERGY SUPPLY , , ,000 60, ,000 CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 CM1 CM Oil Gas Electricity Biofuel 21

22 TRANSPORTATION SECTOR LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSPORT 22

23 TRANSPORTATION SECTOR LOW CARBON ENERGY SYSTEM Passenger Km 2,000,000 PASSENGER Tonnage Km 3,000,000 FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION 1,600,000 2,400,000 1,200,000 1,800, ,000 1,200,000 Tonnage Km SERVICE OUTPUT Passenger Km 400,000 CM 600,000 CM1 3,000,000 F_ F_CM P_ P_CM 3,000, ,400,000 Car Bus Train Motorcycle Ship Airplane Walk Bike Truck Ship Train Airplane 2,250,000 MITIGATION COSTS 1,800,000 Millions USD 700,000 1,500, ,000 1,200, , , , , , CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 CM1 CM Total Operating Annualized Investment Total Initial Investment

24 CONCLUSION Relationship Science & Policy: Independence and Neutrality of Scientists: For science-base policy making to be realised, the scientific community has responsibility make knowledge more accessible and policy-relevant for decision-makers to affect societal change (LCS RNet 2010). In one side, it requires higher research education to be independent from government. In the other side, government also respect the independence and neutrality of scientists and each ministry has process to incorporate scientific knowledge and view in to policy by holding scientific advisor. Role of economist, social science, and engineering science in low carbon policy: Despite its relatively short history of economics and social sciences which contributed to climate change compare to natural science, their role is essential in identifying a feasible transition to a low carbon society by analyzing human behaviour with higher degree of uncertainty. At the initial stage, economists have played a crucial role in deciding the realistic and agreeable level of commitment to achieve the target. At the time of introducing renewable obligation target in energy (electricity) supply, economists play an important role in providing cost and benefit analysis on subsidy given for technologies for energy-intensive sectors such as steel which requires special treatment. Due to recent movement for evidence-based policy, which requires more economic and scientific robustness, role of engineers and social scientists are increasingly important. Social science has not been focused that much, but it will have a greater role in changing people s behaviour with high level of uncertainty. High independence of researcher/academia from the government through the statute and principle, evidencebased policy, the regular communication and consultation among the related stakeholders and more preference for policy impact are worth to been considered for other countries as well. Role of engineering science in energy and low carbon technology development: Introducing and deployment of renewable and less emission energy technology 24

25 Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet) 3 rd Annual Meeting Draft Programme of Work Low Carbon Development Path of Energy Sector and Role of Research Community Retno G Dewi Iwan Hendrawan Bintang Yuwono Rias Parinderati Bogor, November 2014 Centre for Research on Energy Policy INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG