Impacts of climate change on heating and cooling: a Worldwide estimate from energy and macro-economic perspectives

Transcription

1 Impacts of climate change on heating and cooling: a Worldwide estimate from energy and macro-economic perspectives Maryse Labriet 1, Santosh R. Joshi 2, Marc Vielle 2, Amit Kanudia 1 in collaboration with Phil Holden 3, Neil Edwards 3 1 Eneris Consultants, Spain 2 Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Switzerland 3 Open University, UK International Energy Workshop, June 2013, Paris, France

2 ERMITAGE Objective To link together models to assess too often neglected interactions between energy, agriculture, groundwater, energy, economy and climate. Why does it matter? Decision-makers must address possible conflicts: food, water, energy, economic growth. Large variations of impacts by region and sector. Models and researchers use different languages. Duration: 36 months ( ) Coordinator: Open University (UK) 8 partners in UK, CH, ES, DE 7 models

3 Objectives Impacts of temperature change on heating and cooling Study the impacts of on heating/cooling services and consequences on the energy system (one-way linkage) Assess possible feedback on the climate due to changes in the energy system (two-way linkage) Evaluate macro-economic implications of impacts on heating/cooling Coupling a climate model PLASIM-ENTS with the techno-economic TIAM-World model and the macro-economic GEMIMI-E3 model

4 Three models FIXED thermodynamic SEA ICE PLASIM-ENTS PLASIM 3D dynamic ATMOSPHERE ENTS dynamic VEGETATION Flux-corrected slab OCEAN Spatial resolution: T21 ( 5 ) TIAM-WORLD TIMES Integrated Assessment Model. Technology rich model of the entire energy/emission system of the World, from resources to energy services. 16 regions, Dynamic partial equilibrium on energy and emission markets. Driven by demands for energy services. or GEMINI-E3 Multi-country, multisector, recursive computable general equilibrium model. Built on the GTAP-8 database. 14 regions,

5 GHG concentrations PLASIM-ENTSem GHG concentrations Changes in hydropower availability Changes in EFF/AF of thermal plants Seasonal local temperatures Population TIAM-WORLD Computation and regional mapping of seasonal HDD & CDD GEMINI-E3 Regional and seasonal heating and cooling services Changes in heating and cooling services HDD/CDD HDD/CDD Changes in heating and cooling energy consumption Regional heating and cooling energy consumption BASELINE CALIBRATION : Energy prices + Heating & cooling budget shares

6 Series of scenarios Impacts on the energy system 1 reference case without climate change: changes in heating and cooling are driven only by socio-economic drivers 12 different future radiative forcing trajectories (=> from 1.6ᵒC to 5.7ᵒC in 2100), which could be interpreted as due to uncertain contribution by aerosols, CH4 release from permafrost/ oceans, etc. Main result Visible impact of on heating and cooling Negligible feedback on the climate

7 Negligible feedback heating/cooling climate 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Share of heating and cooling energy consumption in total final energy (long-term global average temperature increase of 3.3ᵒC with and without climate changes, and 5.7ᵒC with climate changes ) 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 8.7% 8.4% 8.3% No No % 7.9% 7.7% 8.4% 7.6% 7.2% No No % 7.5% 7.5% No Max (countrybased) Min (countrybased) Heating and cooling are less than 10% of total energy consumed/total emissions

8 Energy consumption for heating and cooling EJ No Energy consumption for cooling and heating at World level (average long term temperature increase of 3.3 and 5.7ᵒC over pre-industrial) Heating Cooling No No No No Higher future global temperature: changes in heating dominate in the intermediate time horizon, while changes in cooling dominate in the longer term

9 Per fuel EJ Final Energy Consumption - Heating and Cooling Biomass Coal Electricity Gas Heat Oil Biomass Coal Electricity Gas Heat Oil Biomass Coal Electricity Gas Heat Oil Biomass Coal Electricity Gas Heat Oil Biomass Coal Electricity Gas Heat Oil No Not surprising: decrease of fossil fuels for heating, increase of electricity for cooling. Gas heating reacts more than biomass and electric heating.

10 Impacts on emissions GtCO Variation of CO2 emissions over Scenario without climate change impacts Power Res&Com Power Res&Com Power Res&Com Power Res&Com Power Res&Com Changes in sectoral emissions => impact on mitigation strategies

11 Regional perspective: electricity production (3.3 degc case) Additional impact (not shown): increase in electricity price up to 45% in Summer Day in the mid-term and 66% at the end of the horizon in Europe, +55% in India, +30% in China.

12 Regional perspective: changes in energy consumption for heating/cooling (3.3 degc) Although small, some system effects are observed (not shown): elc/gas substitution in industry

13 Macro-economic assessment To complete the analysis by assessing the impacts on the welfare due to changes in energy needs and in terms of trade (changes in fossil fuel trade) Includes rebound effect: when the cost of energy services decreases, there is a tendency to increase the level of comfort => comparison of the ex ante change of energy consumption due to introduced in GEMINI-E3 and the ex post variation computed by the model. Analysis done for the reference case (3.3ºC by 2100). Will be extended soon to the wider range of temperature increase.

14 Rebound effect Table 1: Percentage change in household fossil fuel energy consumption in 2100 Table 2: Percentage change in household electricity consumption in 2100 Rebound effect of 37% in case of heating energy demand and 36% in the case of cooling energy demand at global level (regional values of the same order of magnitude)

15 Welfare changes Welfare changes (% of Household consumption) in 2100 Canada, FSU, MEA, Africa: losses dominated by the terms of trade FSU: decrease in energy expenditure (heating) does not compensate the loss of revenues (energy exports) Europe, USA, China: benefit (heating); Latin America: loss (cooling)

16 Conclusion Coupled models operational and efficient; useful to get regional and seasonal climate information Consideration of impacts of on heating/cooling dynamics is important not for global climate feedback but for energy planning and climate policies at local and sector levels: non-small local energy impacts, pressure on electricity supply, transfer of emissions from res/com to power sector Different models, different learnings (system effects in TIAM- WORLD, rebound in GEMINI-E3) Update: Impacts of on hydro and thermal power plants were added in TIAM-WORLD, impacts on bioenergy on-going, other economic impacts included in GEMINI-E3 Importance of the assessment at regional level

17 Thank you Acknowledgements The research leading to these results has received funding from the EU Seventh Framework Programme (ERMITAGE FP7/ ) under Grant Agreement no

18 Annexes

19 Current version of PLASIM-ENTS PLASIM-ENTS PLASIM 3D dynamic ATMOSPHERE Statistical emulation Simulated ensemble average FIXED thermodynamic SEA ICE ENTS dynamic VEGETATION Emulated ensemble average Flux-corrected slab OCEAN Spatial resolution: T21 ( 5 )

20 Heating and Cooling Degree Days 5000 Population-weighted CDD from 2005 to 2100 (long-term global average temperature increase of 3.3 ᵒC) 5000 Population-weighted HDD from 2005 to 2100 (long-term global average temperature increase of 3.3 ᵒC) Degree-days ᵒC Degree-days ᵒC Canada Europe FSU China USA Australia & New Zealand Latin America Middle East Other Asia Africa India 0 Canada FSU Europe USA China Australia & New Zealand Middle East Other Asia Latin America India Africa

21 Regional energy perspective Changes in Final Energy Consumption - Heating and Cooling 3.3 degc TIAM-WORLD

22 Regional energy perspective Final Energy Consumption - Heating and Cooling 3.3 degc TIAM-WORLD

23 Regional energy perspective

24 Scenario I: Change in heating energy demand Variation of Total fossil fuel energy consumption in 2100 Macro-economic impacts China, Europe, USA, Canada and FSU moderate changes in total fossil fuel energy consumption. China, Europe and USA gains welfare from decrease of HDD. Welfare changes (% of Household consumption) in 2100 Welfare gain in reduced in energy exporting countries due to loss of revenue coming from energy export. Surplus = GTT + Domestic

25 Scenario II: Change in cooling energy demand Variation of Electricity consumption in 2100 Macro-economic impacts Canada, Europe, USA, Middle East and Latin America are most affected. Welfare changes (% of Household consumption) in 2100 FSU, China and India are least affected (less than 1%). Australia and New Zealand, Other Asia and Africa see moderate percentage change.

26 Scenario III: Change in heating and cooling energy consumption Variation of Total fossil fuel and electricity consumption in 2100 Macro-economic impacts Limited interactions between heating and cooling energy demands. Welfare changes (% of Household consumption) in 2100 The macroeconomic impacts of climate change on energy demand is negative for Canada, FSU, Middle East and Africa. These regions suffer from loss coming from terms of trade. Europe, China, USA and Other Asia benefit from decrease of heating energy consumption that overcompensates the energy expenses for cooling. In contrary, Latin America, Australia and New Zealand loss welfare due to increase expenditure for cooling building.