Adapting to Water Scarcity for Yemen s Vulnerable Communities. Dr. Mansour Haidera Dr. Abdulla Noaman Dr. Saif Ali Othman Dr.

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1 Adapting to Water Scarcity for Yemen s Vulnerable Communities Dr. Mansour Haidera Dr. Abdulla Noaman Dr. Saif Ali Othman Dr. Chris Swartz (WEC) (WEC) (WEC) Climate Change Workgroup Meeting Lebanon July 2009

2 Project background 2 Funding from: Netherlands Climate Assistance Program (NCAP) Administered by: Environmental Protection Authority, Yemen Conducted by: Water and Environment Center (WEC), Sana a University With technical assistance provided by Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), USA

3 Yemen project objectives 3 Identify key water-related vulnerabilities under climate change in three cases studies areas: Sana a basin, Sadah basin, and Aden Develop possible adaptation strategies Using stakeholder-driven processes, prioritize strategies according to stakeholder needs and feasibility Work with policy-makers to streamline adaptation strategies into policy/laws

4 Sadah Basin site Sana a Basin site 4 The selected areas represent three different ecological zones in Yemen: Sadah Basin represents the rural highlands, and Sana a Basin represents the urban highlands, while Aden represents the coastal lowlands. Aden City site Case study site locations

5 5 Workplan for each case study Identify key water vulnerabilities under climate change with stakeholder consultation Develop scenarios exploring future water related adaptation strategies using the Water Evaluation and Planning Software (WEAP) Prioritize adaptation strategies using stakeholder-driven Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

6 Exploring Water-Vulnerability- Adaptation Linkages Using WEAP WEAP is a water evaluation, planning and management tool used to evaluate water needs and scarcity among all use sectors under various scenarios and adaptation strategies 6 GENERAL INPUT Water resources, catchments, meteorological data Land use, water use and sectors & projections Scenarios Adaptation strategies GENERAL OUPUT Water balance Implication of scenarios and strategies on water resources and water demand

7 MCA Used to determine overall preferences among alternative options under various socio-economic criteria based on stakeholder consultation 7 INPUT List of options to prioritize (here, adaptation strategies explored with WEAP) Evaluation criteria (e.g., cost, benefit to broad sectors of society, productivity gains realized) Relevant metrics for those criteria (derived from WEAP analyses and other sources) All of above collected with stakeholder engagement OUTPUT A single preferred option (highest ranked option), or A short list of preferred options (e.g., highest three options)

8 WEAP Models 8 Aden Sadah Sana a

9 Million Cubic Meter Million Cubic Meter Million Cubic Meter 1, Groundw ater Storage Aquifer: Central Plains Aquifer, All months OSU Core Climate Change Reference ( ) UKHI Dry Climate Change Adopted strategies (Aden) Use of treated WW in agriculture Use of treated WW for aquifer recharging Improve irrigation efficiency (drip irrigation) Desalinization Improved water distribution systems (leakage reduction) Jan Jul Feb Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Jul Feb Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Jul Feb Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug , Groundw ater Storage Aquifer: Central Plains Aquifer, All months 'Indigenous Improved Wadi Flow Use' 'Shift Crop Production' Ag 9 uses improved WWTP effluent Improve Irrigation Efficiency Improve Urban Efficiency Lower Population Growth Reference ( ) Adopted strategies (Sadah) Improve irrigation efficiency (drip irrigation) Increase aquifer storage capacity Use of treated WW in agriculture Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Jul Feb Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Jul Feb Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Jul Feb Sep , Groundw ater Storage Aquifer: Central Plains Aquifer, All months 'Indigenous Improved Wadi Flow Use' 'Shift Crop Production' Ag 9 uses improved WWTP effluent Improve Irrigation Efficiency Improve Urban Efficiency Lower Population Growth Reference ( ) Aden Sadah Adopted strategies (Sana a) Use of treated WW in agriculture Improve irrigation 450 efficiency (drip irrigation) 400 Promotion of 350 lower population growth 300 Improved indigenous 250 methods for wadi flow use 200 Alternative 150 crop production Improved water distribution systems (leakage reduction) 0 Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Jul Feb Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Jul Feb Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Jul Feb Sep Sana a

10 Module 6: Ranking of Adaptation Initiatives by central scores Aden Start page Menu Module 1: Vulnerability Module 2: Stakeholders Module 3: Initiatives Module 4: Criteria Initiative \ Score Total central score convey irrigation water through closed conduits 74 Wastewater reuse 67 Introducing drip irrigation method 65 Wastewater injection 51 Module 5: Weighting Rehabiltation of traditional irrigation structures (channels) 50 6: Ranking Desalinsation water use 45 Module Module 6: Rank (central) 6: Ranking of Adaptation Initiatives leakage reduction in drinking networks 37 Module by central 7: Help scores Save and exit options Final ranking (by central scores) Sana a Sadah Menu Start page Module 1: Vulnerability Module 2: Stakeholders Module 3: Initiatives Module 4: Criteria Module 5: Weighting Module 6: Ranking Module 6: Rank (central) Module 7: Help Save and exit options Menu Start page Module 1: Vulnerability Module 2: Stakeholders Module 3: Initiatives Module 4: Criteria Module 5: Weighting Module 6: Ranking Module 6: Central scores Module 7: Help Save and exit options Final ranking (by central scores) Initiative \ Score Results Criteria short name>>> SOCIAL ECOL ECON PHYSICAL Criteria weighting >>> high (24%) high (24%) very high (29%) high (24%) Stakeholder consensus >>> Irrigation efficiency (the use of drip irrigation technique) Rain harvesting (through construction of small dam or just bulding barriers made of impereable earth material. material Total central score improving indigenous method for irrigation 79 Shift crop production from Qat to Wheat 45 Improve irrigation efficiency 28 Lower population growth in Sana'a 26 waste water reused and inject to GW 23 improve urban efficiency 23 strong strong very strong strong Total central score

11 Conclusions & Recommendations Climate variability and climate change is less influential on the case study regions than current and predicted patterns of agricultural and domestic water consumption. The key lesson learned from the study is that Yemen will continue to suffer from a pressing water crisis in the absence of strategies to stabilize water supply and demand patterns. At the present time, annual withdrawals from groundwater resources exceed renewable resources by wide and unsustainable margins, and will likely continue into the future absent a vigorous policy intervention. The analysis has revealed that a collapse of water supply systems will likely take place toward the end of the next decade in several important aquifers (e.g. Sadah & Lahij) suggesting that timely interventions are urgently needed. 11

12 The choice of adequate interventions (adaptation strategies) depends on the dictates of the particular case study region, including relative costs, benefits, and level of community hardship implied. At the technological level, improved efficiencies through drip irrigation and improved water distribution systems will have demonstrable effects when combined with other supporting adaptation initiatives. 12

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15 15 Thank you