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10 CR&R Project Site CUP 3741 Drainage Overview
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20 Revision of the Lake Elsinore & Canyon Lake Nutrient TMDL CDM Smith Team & Risk Sciences Implementation Task September 13, 2017 Lake Elsinore/Canyon Lake Task Force Meeting
21 Presentation Outline Lake Elsinore Reference Hydrology Update Implementation Framework Reasonable Assurance Analysis Supplemental project characterization Lake Elsinore Internal Loads
22 Lake Elsinore Reference Hydrology
23 Reference Hydrology Draft TMDL Revision Assumes existence of Railroad Canyon Dam Canyon Lake overflows Reference condition represented by flows Current conditions represented by flows Watershed model for local watershed
24 Reference Hydrology Draft TMDL Revision Retention within Canyon Lake not a significant loss of inflow volume to Lake Elsinore in a single year Cumulative impact of reduced volume may be important Notes: 1) point outside of range plotted, no measurable retention in Canyon Lake was recorded in ) Inflow gauges do not account for small drainages around Canyon Lake 3) outflow gauge includes some drainage area downstream of Canyon Lake
25 Railroad Canyon Dam RR Dam construction in 1929 Followed by recent legal agreements requiring the maintenance of Lake Elsinore water level at 1240 Reference condition for Lake Elsinore should not presume the existence of RR Canyon Dam Photo source: Brown and Caldwell, TMDL Monitoring Report
26 Reference Hydrology Many sources can provide supplemental water for lake level stabilization Reclaimed water Imported water Increased watershed runoff
27 Reference Hydrology Watershed model used to hindcast annual average runoff volume without RR Canyon Dam Current development based on impervious area map Reference condition removes imperviousness from model Includes approximated Mystic Lake overflows Compare with USGS gauge data of RR Canyon overflow
28 Reference Hydrology Current average annual runoff reaching Lake Elsinore is slightly greater than reference condition without RR Canyon Dam Increased watershed runoff from impervious areas washes off more nutrients than are assumed for reference watershed Land use based EMCs
29 Reference Hydrology Watershed model runoff coefficient (RC) as power function of imperviousness Reference condition with no imperviousness, RC = Validation of reference condition RC from runoff ratio for San Jacinto River at State Street
30 Implementation Framework
31 Implementation Framework Load reduction required = current minus allowable Reasonable assurance analysis Quantify reduction credits from ongoing implementation of existing controls Supplemental projects needed if existing controls do not provide required load reduction 1. Establish Nutrient Reduction Requirements 2. Determine Water Quality Benefits from Existing Controls 3. Identify Water Quality Gap 4. Identify Alternatives to Address Gap & Evaluate Potential Benefits
32 Implementation Framework Chapter organization Review of Historical Plans and Projects: Evaluation of Water Quality Benefit from Ongoing Implementation of Existing Controls Reasonable Assurance Analysis Supplemental Project Concepts Required Actions
33 Reasonable Assurance Analysis
34 Reasonable Assurance Analysis Internal nutrient controls Chemical binding Reducing anoxia in lake bottom Hydrologic controls LEMP Supplemental water addition Mystic Lake options Single or Dual Nutrient WLA achieved Numeric Target CDF Achieved DO controls Aeration via mixing Oxygenation Hydrologic dilution/ flushing External nutrient controls Source control WQMPs Agricultural BMPs EVMWD effluent treatment Algae controls Algaecide Sonication Fishery management
35 Water Quality Impacts from Levee Project Recent lake model simulation to test the influence of levee construction on Lake Elsinore Comparison of two different hydrologic periods representing reference watershed and current watershed with RR Canyon Dam All results are preliminary and subject to change do not cite
36 All results are preliminary and subject to change do not cite Water Quality Impacts from Levee Project
37 All results are preliminary and subject to change do not cite Water Quality Impacts from Levee Project
38 All results are preliminary and subject to change do not cite Water Quality Impacts from Levee Project
39 All results are preliminary and subject to change do not cite Water Quality Impacts from Levee Project
40 All results are preliminary and subject to change do not cite Water Quality Impacts from Increased Runoff Roughly twice the total nutrient load with current volume Different climatic patterns despite equivalent longterm rainfall total Reference volume scenario CDFs exclude period of desiccation
41 All results are preliminary and subject to change do not cite Water Quality Impacts from Increased Runoff Roughly twice the total nutrient load with current volume Different climatic patterns despite equivalent longterm rainfall total Reference volume scenario CDFs exclude period of desiccation
42 All results are preliminary and subject to change do not cite Water Quality Impacts from Increased Runoff Roughly twice the total nutrient load with current volume Different climatic patterns despite equivalent longterm rainfall total Reference volume scenario CDFs exclude period of desiccation
43 All results are preliminary and subject to change do not cite Water Quality Impacts from Increased Runoff Roughly twice the total nutrient load with current volume Different climatic patterns despite equivalent longterm rainfall total Reference volume scenario CDFs exclude period of desiccation
44 Lake Elsinore Internal Load
45 Reasonable Assurance Analysis Key component of many existing and potential controls involves internal loads from lake bottom sediments Draft TMDL revision source assessment for sediment nutrient flux is still under development
46 Lake Elsinore Internal Load Estimates of annual mass must account for seasonality Flux dependent on DO, temperature, and ph at lake bottom Plots from Anderson, Internal Loading and Nutrient Cycling in Lake Elsinore
47 Lake Elsinore Internal Load 2004 TMDL applied winter (March) flux rate over 6 months and summer (July) flux rates over 6 months Variable Summer Winter Annual Average SRP Flux Rate (mg/m 2 /day) SRP Flux (kg/yr) 18,588 14,560 33,147 Average NH4-N Flux Rate (mg/m 2 /day) NH4-N Flux (kg/yr) 157,337 39, ,063
48 Lake Elsinore Internal Load Diffusive flux from lake bottom sediments to water column accounts for majority of nutrients in Lake Elsinore Small % reductions in internal load needed to offset all external load Different offset estimation approach needed
49 TMDL Revision - Lake Elsinore Internal Load More refined daily CAEDYM model results to estimate annual flux Accounting for temporal changes in DO, temperature, and ph Accounting for different extent of lake bottom area for flux to occur year to year
50 TMDL Revision - Lake Elsinore Internal Load Linkage analysis with DYRESM-CAEDYM completed Calibration Numeric target CDF development Software issues for extracting the compartment showing daily flux from sediments Needed to update source assessment and serve as basis for assessing nutrient mass based offsets from existing and potential controls
51 Lake Elsinore Internal Load Historic versus Current Flux Rates Estimate internal load for a hypothetical reference watershed Numeric target CDF was developed using a scaling factor approximated from paleolimnology study Return to historic flux may take decades - empirical analysis of nutrient kinetics by Anderson (2012) Implementation schedule will consider timeframe to reduce flux rates from lake bottom sediment by continuting to reduce or offset external loads Dynamic sediment diagenesis analysis
Lake Elsinore and Canyon Lake TMDL Revision Monitoring Requirements Chapter Update. October 19, 2017
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