Interlinkage between Natural Resources Accounts (NRA) and Development Policy OpAons:
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1 Interlinkage between Natural esources Accounts (NA) and Development Policy OpAons: Case: Indonesia Intended Na.onally Determined Contribu.on (INDC) Medrilzam Buyung Airlangga Ministry of National Development Planning (BAPPENAS) BPS- Statistics Indonesia The Hague, November 2016 WAVES Indonesia Wealth Accoun-ng and the Valua-on of Ecosystem Services
2 Current Status: BPS-Sta-s-cs Indonesia has been producing asset accounts for selected natural resources since NCA/ SISNELING Missing Link?? Long-list of development priori-es Compe-ng sectoral agendas Line ministries produce their own data Forest inventory, agriculture staasacs, energy staasacs How to create linkage between NCA and Development Policy Exercise (among compe.ng sectoral agendas) in Indonesia?
3 Addressing the Missing Link (Case of INDC) ConceptualisaAon of Indonesia INDC POVETY ECONOMY TADE OFFS Waste PopulaAon Development Policies? Industry Economy TransportaAon CO2 Emission Land Use Energy NATUAL CAPITAL ACCOUNTING Note: Assessing structure of sectoral inter-linkage requires informaaon on natural resources, human and physical capital stock and flow
4 INDC MODELING EXECISE AS THE BIDGE BETWEEN NCA AND POLICY OPTIONS human capital human capital growth ecological scarcity - <gdp> B ecosystem services natural capital growth wages - productivity (tfp) gdp of the poor B health education training consumption demand of natural resources natural capital natural capital depletion public expenditure private profits natural capital extraction gdp natural capital reductions job creation natural capital additions investment employed population physical capital green gdp - retirement <human capital growth> depreciation OLE OF NCA INTEGATED POLICY ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC, SOCIAL and GHG USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING Land based Emission
5 Scope of INDC Indonesia SECTOS: Energy Agriculture, Forestry, adn Other Land Use (AFOLU) Waste Industrial Process and Other Products Unit (IPPU) Energy Combus-on Transport Manufacture Energy industry Others Fugi-ve Emission Forestry: Produc-on Conserva-on Protected Forest Agriculture: Agriculture Planta-on Livestock Peatland: Decomposi-on Fires Wate: Solid Liquid Industry: Cement Ammonia Others Other Determining Factors Wealth Accoun-ng and Valua-on Economy: of Ecosystem Popula-on: Input-Output Services (WAVES) City 25 Sectors Indonesia Village Poverty: 1. SISNELING Number of the 2. Land poor Accounts 3. Pilot Water Employment Accounts Educa-on CO 2 Greenhouse Gas CH 4 N 2 O
6 Economic Sector THESHOLD OF INDC MODEL SUPPOTED BY NA SUPPOTED BY NA Economic Models limited by resource availability! energy availability, land availability dan raw materials for industry availability Energy Sector SUPPOTED BY NA Energy availability limited by energy stock and production. Must import if domestic energy not available Energy import limited by ;inancial power! represent by exogenous variable foreign exchange effect to import Peatland, Land, and Forest Sector SUPPOTED BY NA Total land area is preserved constantly in million Ha,! mineral land area (172 million Ha) and peatland area (14.3 million Ha) Transformation period from land category into secondary forest and Hutan Tanaman : 30 years for baseline calculation 10 years for policy simulation calculation Peak peat ;ire estimation based on El-Nino cycle in 8 years Waste and IPPU Sector GHG emission limited by economic growth (endogenous) and population growth (exogenous) in national development scenario Economic growth! 5-6% per year in simulation period Average population growth! 1,3% per year until 2030
7 Challenges and Opportunities Challenges: Data eliability Willingness to data sharing among line ministries Understanding the modelling tool Communica-ng the result of modelling exercise to the decision makers Mainstream NCA exercise into the Next Development Planning OpportuniAes: NATUAL CAPITAL ACCOUNTING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS (SDG) GOVENMENT FINANCIAL STATISTICS (GFS) STATEGIC ENVIONMENTAL ASSESSMENT (SEA) INTENDED NATIONALLY DETEMINED CONTIBUTIONS (INDC) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN
8 Thank You 8
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